Adriana Sas
Research expert covering the Polish market
Demographics of Poland - statistics & facts
Poland's demographic situation has gradually deteriorated since the beginning of the transition period in 1989. By 2100, the population is projected to shrink by 60 percent compared to 2017. The Polish government has been trying to combat this problem with pro-natalist and pro-social policies for many years. Despite this, the Family 500+ program launched in 2016, extended maternity and parental leaves, social benefits, and support for families with many children introduced by local governments have not translated into an increase in fertility, and thus an increase in Poland's population.
The country has 1.27 million more women than men, and the median age of women was more than three years higher than men's in 2023. Poland, like other European countries, is facing an aging population problem. The life expectancy for a newborn born in this period, regardless of gender, was 78 years. In comparison, the median age for women was nearly 17 years higher than in 1950.
Any discussion of potential solutions must consider the long-term effects of this crisis on Poland's economy and society, including a shrinking workforce, increased healthcare costs, and social welfare burdens.
Poland's shrinking population
Since 2010, Poland's population has been on a downward trend. The year 2020 saw a significant decrease, a decline exacerbated by the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Unfavorable mortality and low birth rates contributed to the record-low natural increase. Poland's population diminished by 130,000 people in 2023 compared to the previous year. Most of the population lives in urbanized areas, with the Mazowieckie Voivodeship being the most populous region. In 2023, most Polish regions experienced a year-on-year decrease in the population.The country has 1.27 million more women than men, and the median age of women was more than three years higher than men's in 2023. Poland, like other European countries, is facing an aging population problem. The life expectancy for a newborn born in this period, regardless of gender, was 78 years. In comparison, the median age for women was nearly 17 years higher than in 1950.
Causes of Poland's demographic problems
One of the significant demographic problems is the low fertility rate. Births are the key factor influencing the number and structure of the population. A decreasing number of women of childbearing age will affect future births. This is mainly due to young people postponing the decision to start a family, having fewer children, or even living alone. Since 1990, the fertility rate has been below two, which does not guarantee a simple replacement of generations. In 2023, only 272,000 children were born – the fewest in the postwar period. The number of live births declined by approximately 11 percent compared to the previous year. After 1990, changes caused the highest female fertility rate to shift from the 20-24 age group to the 30-34 age group. A significant increase in fertility occurs in the oldest age groups. Between 1995 and 2023, the number of women of reproductive age declined by over 14 percent. The low birth rate is not the only problem of Poland's demographic crisis. It is also exacerbated by mortality, life expectancy, marriage breakdown, and migration.Any discussion of potential solutions must consider the long-term effects of this crisis on Poland's economy and society, including a shrinking workforce, increased healthcare costs, and social welfare burdens.
