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U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow striking a familiar victory pose.
(Associated Press | Al Goldis)
Every six years, Michigan Republicans get to play their least-favorite game: Who wants to lose to Debbie Stabenow?
While they don't have to worry about taking on the state's senior U.S. senator next year, the 2018 election is already upon us.
Don't believe me? Even as five GOP presidential hopefuls (real ones, not George Pataki) roamed Mackinac Island last month during the Republicans' biennial shindig, politicos were all atwitter about '18.
Most prattling was focused on the governor's race -- Attorney General Bill Schuette and U.S. Rep. Candice Miller, R-Harrison Township, would be a delectable battle. But there was plenty of speculation about AG, secretary of state and the state Supreme Court, as well.
As for the U.S. Senate seat, it's safe to say that it didn't inspire the same level of intrigue. Because although Michigan Republicans will make a big show that they're finally going to defeat "Debbie Spends-A-Lot" (cleverness like that just rolls off the tongue), they know it's an uphill battle.
And national Republicans know it will be far easier to flip seats in Indiana, North Dakota, New Mexico and more.
Stabenow's win record is impressive, starting in 2000, when she shocked many pundits by knocking off GOP U.S. Sen. Spence Abraham. She's relentlessly on-message, a good fundraiser and a rising power in her caucus (before the Dems lost the Senate, she chaired the Agriculture Committee).
During her first re-election bid in 2006, Stabenow trounced Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard by 16 points. And three years ago, she pounded former U.S. Rep. Pete Hoekstra by an astounding 21 points.
Federal elections have been grueling for Republicans. No presidential or U.S. senatorial nominee has won Michigan this century.
Republicans couldn't even capture an open Senate seat in 2014, a blockbuster GOP year. And it wasn't even close -- now U.S. Sen. Gary Peters, D-Bloomfield Township, earned a 12-point victory against Terri Lynn Land.
So what do Republicans have going for them in 2018?
Well, Stabenow isn't quite as invincible as now-former U.S. Sen. Carl Levin, D-Detroit, who won five straight elections by double digits (his last one in 2008 was by 30 points). But that's not terribly comforting.
The best Republicans can hope for is that their streak of winning off-year elections continues, and that propels their Senate nominee to victory. But after eight years of Republican Gov. Rick Snyder (and possibly a GOP-controlled Legislature), voters may want change.
It's clear that the GOP will have to draft a top-notch candidate. And thus far, no one's been eager to walk the plank.
Land and Hoekstra are nonstarters. Bouchard may be interested again, but he didn't fare well the first time.
There's been some talk of outspoken libertarian-leaning U.S. Rep. Justin Amash, R-Cascade Township. But he begged off running in 2014. And besides, there's even idle chatter about him as House speaker now that his establishment Republican nemesis, John Boehner, R-Ohio, is retiring.
Republicans would love to have affable former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers as their 2018 nominee -- just as they would have last year. But the former Intelligence Committee chair is clearly loving his new perch as a syndicated talk show host, and he's declared it's a "bigger platform" than Congress.
Michigan GOP Chair Ronna Romney McDaniel could be an interesting choice, giving Republicans a female nominee. McDaniel plainly has the Romney family ambition, having quickly ascended from national committeewoman. But she may lack the policy chops to tangle with Stabenow and could end up floundering like Land.
The strongest candidate would probably be Miller, who's from southeast Michigan, has a strong background in homeland security and always overperforms in elections.
But alas, all signs are that the retiring congresswoman has her sights set on the governor's mansion.
Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. She can be reached at [email protected]. Follow her on Twitter here.