Roderich Kiesewetter

Timothy Garton Ash sees Germany facing still another turning point ( Zeitenwende) to respond to the challenges in the immediacy of Ukraine but well beyond the Zeitenwent Scholz proclaimed in 2022. Here are the questions he raises. A stimulating read. “Can Germany swing the balance of the European Union toward a genuine strategic commitment to include Ukraine, Moldova, the Western Balkans, and Georgia? Can it contribute the bold, innovative thinking needed to reform the EU, making it ready both to make another big enlargement and to face a dangerous world? Can it help shape a realistic new European policy toward Russia, not for the next twenty months but for the next twenty years? And how is Europe as a whole—including countries like self-marginalized Britain—to defend its values and way of life in a world where often reflexively anti-Western great and middle powers such as China, India, and Turkey are increasingly influential, while the US interest in Europe has diminished and will continue to diminish? Germany cannot do any of these things on its own, but without Germany none of them will happen.”

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A conference in Berlin this week clarified the most urgent issues Germany and Ukraine should address before the biggest annual conference dedicated to Ukraine in June (#URC2024). Here are my new articles at German Marshall Fund of the United States on the two elephants in the room: After Kubrakov, Ukraine Must Reestablish Faith in the Transparency and Independence of Its Restoration Institutions https://lnkd.in/ey7mFDmS Make the URC a Ukraine Resilience Conference https://lnkd.in/euwXueC2

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The Ukraine Recovery Conference begins today in Berlin. What is the situation and what is needed? Ukraine needs investment. Unfortunately, there will be no private investor pledges at this Ukraine Recovery Conference, as was the case recently in London. No investments without security. The best way to get security for investments is through NATO membership. The most important and largest investors in Ukraine are the Ukrainians themselves. Investment protection, risk mitigation and access to favorable credits for Ukrainian businessmen would be necessary to keep the Ukrainian economy going. The Ukrainian energy sector, which was deliberately destroyed by Russia, needs an emergency aid program. Repairing power plants, decentralized power generation, exporting energy to Ukraine, repairing and stabilizing the grids - this is what is needed quickly. Many companies and organizations cannot send their employees to Ukraine because there are problems with insuring business trips to Ukraine. This problem should be solvable, especially as we are not talking about huge sums of money. Less cloudy declarations of intent and general political solidarity addresses and more practical steps to maintain business and living conditions in Ukraine during the war would be a good focus of this conference. It is good that the German government is committed to this with almost all ministers and with many agreements prepared. It is good that the security sector is now also on board after initial reservations. Some outstanding issues, such as the use of confiscated Russian assets and the opening of the first chapter of EU accession negotiations, can only be decided after the conference at the G7 and in the EU Council. The criteria for Ukraine's EU accession process and the financing of reconstruction in terms of good governance and the fight against corruption should now be closely interlinked in order to encourage Ukraine to make further improvements quickly. https://lnkd.in/ejJVuqFP

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Berlin- The Green Party, in this case Hofreiter, always hold unrealistic views. On the one hand, they actively advocate military support for Ukraine with defence equipment, which is in Germany's original interest. On the other hand, the Green politician Hofreiter wants to enable hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians in Germany to refuse military service. Germany should issue them with replacement documents. In fact, this misses the legal reality. Or is Hofreiter now campaigning for German soldiers to operate German weapons in Ukraine, while Ukrainian men fit for military service go on holiday on German shores and receive citizen's money? The destructiveness of so-called Green politics is not only evident in energy and infrastructure policy...

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NATO announced the opening of the first liaison office in the Middle East - in Jordan The ministry will strengthen the cooperation between NATO and the Hashemite Kingdom in various fields, including the war on terrorism. What is so important about this announcement from NATO?? Fundamental changes are taking place in the Middle Eastern neighborhood that will produce a new Middle Eastern order. There are talks for a historic reconciliation between Turkey and Syria mediated by Russia and Iran, the Houthis are planning an attack on Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi and Dubai, 3 African countries: Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have formed a confederation, the Americans had to leave and the Russians came in, Iranian weapons and equipment are flowing into Syria, smuggling The weapons from Syria to Jordan and from there to Judea and Samaria continue at a high rate. Jordan may enter into a dynamic of significant instability, a process that could lead to a significant threat to Israel on its eastern border. This is another part of the Iranian "ring of fire" plan around Israel, a war of attrition through the proxy. This is the great importance of the support of NATO in Jordan, it should happen quickly.

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CNN [excerpt]: #China is a “decisive enabler” of #Russia’s #war against #Ukraine, #NATO leaders said Wednesday, as the #defense #alliance hardens its stance on Beijing and the “systemic challenges” they say it poses to their countries’ security. The joint declaration marks NATO’s most pointed tone yet on China’s role in a war that has galvanized the 75-year-old bloc, which celebrated its anniversary this week at a three-day leaders’ summit in Washington hosted by US President Joe Biden. China’s “no limits” partnership with Russia and its “large-scale support for Russia’s defense industrial base” are enabling Moscow to wage its war, the NATO leaders’ statement said, as they urged Beijing to “cease all material and political support to Russia’s war effort.” ... The NATO leaders’ declaration Wednesday comes as the 32-member alliance - historically focused on security in North America and Europe - has in recent years upped its engagement with US allies in #Asia and increasingly seen its security as linked to the region, even as member countries have pursued divergent policies toward China. For the third consecutive year, leaders of #NewZealand, #Japan and #SouthKorea attended the NATO leaders’ summit in another sign of closer ties between the bloc and those countries, as well as #Australia. ... On Thursday, China criticized the NATO statement as “filled with Cold War mentality and belligerent rhetoric,” and said it was “provocative with obvious lies and smears.” “China is not the creator to the Ukraine crisis. China’s position on Ukraine is open and aboveboard. We aim to promote peace talks and seek political settlement,” a statement from its mission to the #EuropeanUnion said. ... Later Thursday, China’s Foreign Ministry also condemned the declaration, with a spokesperson framing NATO as a “great threat” to the world and reiterating Beijing’s claim that the alliance was “fanning the flames” of the war in Ukraine. ... NATO’s attention on Asia has also been accelerated over the past two and a half years by hardening geopolitical fault lines in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the Kremlin’s tightening relationship with not only China but also #NorthKorea and #Iran. NATO leaders on Wednesday also said Pyongyang and Tehran were “fueling” Russia’s war through “direct #military support,” and condemned North Korea’s exports of “artillery shells and ballistic missiles” to Russia – which multiple governments say they have tracked since last year when Putin hosted North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in the Russian Far East. “The Indo-Pacific is important for NATO, given that developments in that region directly affect Euro-Atlantic security,” the leaders said in their declaration. “We are strengthening dialogue to tackle cross-regional challenges and are enhancing our practical cooperation, including through flagship projects in the areas of supporting Ukraine, cyber defense, countering disinformation, and technology,” it said. #News

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#Nato: #Biden promises new #airdefences for #Ukraine in forceful Nato speech 👁️The Guardian UK It was announced on Tuesday that the #US and its #Europeanallies would act to bolster Ukraine’s air defences at a time when the country is under constant heavy bombardment from #Russia. The US, #Germany and #Romania would send additional batteries of the #Patriot air defence system while Patriot components donated by the #Netherlands would enable another battery to operate, according to a statement by the leaders of the US, the Netherlands, Germany, Italy and Romania. The Italian prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, approved the donation of a Italian-French-made equivalent of the Patriot interceptor, the #SAMP/T air defence system. “These five #strategicairdefencesystems will help to protect Ukrainian cities, civilians, and soldiers, and we are coordinating closely with the Ukrainian government so that these systems can be utilised rapidly,” the statement said. “We are working on a further announcement this year of additional strategic #airdefencesystems for Ukraine.” As well the medium range Patriot and SAMP/T systems, the US and its allies said they would provide Ukraine with dozens of shorter-range tactical systems, including the US-Norwegian made #NASAMS, US-made #Hawks, #Iris systems made by a European consortium and German #Gepard #missiles. https://lnkd.in/gFYrRAK2 Critical step for president in convincing #foreignleaders he remains up to task of leading 32-member #militaryalliance

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75 years of NATO With eastern Europe and the Middle East being entangled in conflict, it gives #Xi Jinping an opportunity to leverage the situation and achieve what it calls reunification of Taiwan with mainland China. It is high time for NATO leaders to pivot to Asia with the aim of curbing the rising hegemon—#China—that aims to destroy the very foundations of liberty, freedom, and human rights on which the West-led rules-based order is grounded. The evolution of warfare and its transcendence to public life by means of non-kinetic #warfare tactics, which are being employed by countries like #China, predominantly require like-minded countries to collaborate on security matters, especially in the Indo-Pacific. Read more about 75 years of NATO, its relevance and future in my recent piece via Global Strategic & Defence News. https://lnkd.in/dNK-KYD9

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Analysis of the U.S.-Russia Spy Exchange Agreement --- On August 1, 2024, a spy exchange between the U.S. and Russia took place, generating significant political resonance. This raises questions about the timing and why Putin agreed to this deal, thereby giving political leverage to President Biden and Vice President Harris. Context of the Agreement: - Gershkovich's Detention. Evan Gershkovich was detained on March 29, 2023. - Paul Whelan's Imprisonment. Whelan has been in custody since December 2018. - Krasikov's Imprisonment. Vadim Krasikov has been imprisoned since 2020. Gershkovich's detention aimed to strengthen Russia's negotiating position, similar to previous instances involving basketball player Brittney Griner and Israeli Naama Issachar. The Agreement and Its Impact: - Long-Term Preparation. The deal was in the works for many months. Jake Sullivan's statement that the Ukrainian case was not considered in this process indicates parallel activities by the White House. - Significance for Biden. The implementation of the agreement occurred when the Democratic Party's position had weakened, and Trump started gaining ground. - Biden's Role. Biden managed to consolidate European support for this agreement. Such a deal would have been nearly impossible under Trump. Benefits for Putin: - Convenient Partner. Biden proved to be a convenient partner for Putin, as achieving consensus with European states on a spy exchange would have been more challenging under Trump. - Strategic Timing. Delaying the agreement until the U.S. elections could have led to unpredictable outcomes. Conclusions: The agreement is beneficial for both sides, except for Ukraine, which remained outside the process. This underscores the importance of strategic diplomacy and the influence of domestic politics on international relations. ✍️Information and Analytical Center of Ukraine https://lnkd.in/dJ_NJn2n #Ukraine #USA #Russia #Putin #Biden #InternationalDiplomacy #Politics

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Politico [excerpt]: A group of Chinese #universities with military ties known as the "Seven Sons of National #Defense" are involved in #EuropeanUnion-funded #research projects, POLITICO has found. The EU over the past decade has funded at least 14 projects for €26 million that worked with Chinese universities deemed "high-risk" by experts. Eight of these projects are still ongoing. The topics of the research projects ranged from decarbonization, climate modeling and heating and cooling technology to antennas and motor propulsion #technology. The research ties are awkward for #Brussels, which has been trying to rekindle its relationship with China. In May, the bloc adopted guidelines for #EU countries and universities to shield researchers and universities from foreign interference — notably from China — for fear of seeing #intellectualproperty leaking and its know-how being used against its interests. China experts have warned that the Seven Sons group has "known links to #military research." The universities are under the management of China's Industry and Information Technology Ministry and "play an important part in the Chinese defense industry," a recent study by Datenna, a data intelligence platform focused on China, said. All members of the Seven Sons club are categorized as a "very high" risk partner by the China Defence Universities Tracker of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, a widely used instrument by universities to decide on research collaborations. Just last March, five European universities kicked off an EU-funded project on decarbonization that got almost €2 million in EU funding and included the Beijing Institute of Technology, a Seven Sons club member, as a project partner, POLITICO's analysis of a database of EU-funded research shows. The bloc's flagship research and development program, Horizon Europe, also funds a project on heat transfer technology, which has Beihang University as a partner — also one of the group of seven — and runs until 2027. Many more projects with Seven Sons Members happened under Horizon Europe's predecessor, Horizon 2020, since 2015: At least 13 projects, of which 7 are still ongoing. ...Under the EU's research programs, Chinese participants are seen as "associated partners," meaning they don't receive EU funding but are involved in specific research tasks. Officials in some European regions, like #Belgium's northern Flanders, have ruled out working with the group of seven altogether. But European academic institutions have warned against shutting China out entirely from research collaborations, especially in areas like climate research, arguing it conflicts with academic freedom and slows academic progress. Some universities involved recognized the risk of working with the Seven Sons universities but decided to proceed as the research project's topic wasn't particularly controversial. #news #business

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The Ukrainian operation in Kursk is almost into its third week. How might Russia respond in the coming days and weeks, and what are its medium and long term options for dealing with the Ukrainian incursion into Russian territory? My latest at Futura Doctrina. #Ukraine #strategy #military #leadership #adaptation https://lnkd.in/gS2XkDaY

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The German arms industry experiences a significant shift with the introduction of a 100 billion euro special fund for Bundeswehr restructuring. Chancellor Olaf Scholz's "Zeitenwende" speech on 22 February, 2022, marked the beginning. The fact remains that Bundeswehr has faced years of deprivation on their home soil. Some permanent change coming? By the parliamentary summer recess, 42 of these bills with a total volume of almost 27 billion euros had already been approved by the budget committee. Among other things, the German government has concluded a framework contract with Rheinmetall for artillery ammunition worth 8.5 billion euros. Over a period of about ten years, the Düsseldorf-based armaments company will deliver around two million artillery shells with a caliber of 155 millimeters to Germany. In addition, there is an order for 6,500 military trucks worth 3.5 billion euros, the delivery of 123 vehicles of the type "heavy weapon carriers infantry" worth 2.7 billion euros and a development contract for air defense as part of the air defense system for short-range and close-range protection (NNbS) for defense against drones worth 607 million euros. The sensor and radar specialist Hensoldt is also setting records. At the end of the first half of 2024, the order backlog was around 6.5 billion euros. The German-French arms company KNDS also benefits from the special fund. The German government has ordered 105 Leopard 2 tanks from KNDS for around three billion euros. At KNDS, order intake increased by a massive 130 percent or 7.8 billion euros to 15.7 billion euros in 2023 while Rheinmetall recorded a slower pace of growth with an increase in orders of 44 percent. Chancellor Scholz has advertised that the regular defence budget from 2028, when the special fund will be used up, must comprise 80 billion euros. In the current year, it is around 52 billion euros, so where the money will come from? And while Pistorius has demaded 6.5 billion euros more for the defense budget for the coming year, he is receiving under 1.3 billion euros. The first ever European Defense Industry Strategy (EDIS) outlines the challenges currently faced by the European Defense Technological and Industrial Base (EDTIB) to create an EU market for defense with an immediate need for a 100 billion euro fund to boost overall defense cooperation. The European Defence Industry Programme (EDIP) was recently presented by the EC as the new legislative initiative. Moreover, Europe aims to increase its arms production by 2027. EU member states should set themselves the goal of spending at least 50 percent of the funds planned for arms procurement in the European internal market by 2030. Well, have we heard "die Gebrüder Grimm" before? Check out the first ever defence industrial strategy and a new defence industry programme: https://lnkd.in/g9BncnS3 Check out the Handelsblatt coverage: https://lnkd.in/d2jJDPay #germany #europeandefense #bundeswehr #rheinmetall #knds

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A Memorandum of Cooperation was signed between Kyiv Aviation Institute and Association Metsverse-UA. On November 22, 2024, a significant event took place in Kyiv for the development of modern technologies and innovations in Ukraine. A Memorandum of Cooperation was signed between the State Non-Profit Enterprise Kyiv Aviation Institute and the Association Metaverse-UA, a non-governmental organization. This cooperation opens up new horizons for the development of metaverse technologies, their integration into the educational process, research, and industrial projects. Both parties agreed to consolidate efforts to introduce innovations in the areas of virtual reality, artificial intelligence, and digital transformation. “Kyiv Aviation Institute, as a leading scientific institution, aims to become the basis for creating high-tech solutions. In its turn, Metsverse-UA will facilitate the integration of scientific research results into real life. The signing of this memorandum is another step towards strengthening Ukraine's technological potential and its integration into global technological trends. Follow our updates to learn more about the next steps and joint initiatives!

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Berlin tames its bear back into the family of European nation-states with independent defense capabilities. Die WELT (Kristian Frigelj) reports how the Federal Minister of Defense is working on various models to increase the number of personnel in the Bundeswehr. There are three options to choose from for a return to military service. Option one provides for voluntary military service, in which all citizens from the age of 18 are sent information, fill out an online questionnaire if interested and can take advantage of voluntary counseling. Option two is a selective military service with an obligation for men to fill out the questionnaire and possibly be mustered, while there is still voluntariness for women. The third option is considered the most far-reaching model, because the online questionnaire would be equally mandatory for men and women aged 18 and over. While the left-wing coalition government is hosting Eurojackpot, for instance the FDP parliamentary group rejecting compulsory service or military service, the opposition AfD group has a clear-cut recipe: "Option two is currently the best choice. It can be implemented quickly by the legislator and ties in with the familiar system. Option three could be prepared and finally implemented in parallel. Conscription for all must be seriously discussed," said defence policy spokesman Rüdiger Lucassen. For his parliamentary group, it is clear that conscription can only take place "in the German interest". According to the AfD, this means "not sending troops to Ukraine, neither today nor in the future," Lucassen said. Well, the fact remains that Bundeswehr has faced years of deprivation on their home soil. While the approval ratings for Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) and his left-wing coalition government are sinking in a spiraling way, it seems to oppose defense related spending, including the compulsory conscription. The peacetime scale of at least 230,000 German soldiers is appropriate and realistic. In addition, a reserve of at least 100,000 men integrated into the active troops is needed, half of which is a permanent reserve unit with compulsory military service. For Germany, a mixture of "option two and option three" type of conscription is necessary. And there is lot to be learned from the old ally in up North, namely Finland - in the area of compulsory military service and how to secure the vital functions of society, keeping them apart from ever fluctuating internal politics and and ideologically loaded devaluations, some severe consequences.  #germany #europeandefense #afd #fdp #spd #bundeswehr #berlin #finland Check out the WELT report:

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As #NATO celebrates its 75th anniversary I am reposting my article on #Japan NATo cooperation published with KAS Japan Txs to Rabea Brauer and team. It appears like my analysis has withstood the test of time. https://lnkd.in/g2CRRixe

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