Gaurav Gupta

I’ve been turning down all media requests for a post election analysis but talk of whether alliances will hold post elections reminded me of something I wrote 26 years ago - before a Lok Sabha Election result.   The basic premise: one who holds 30 seats may have the same power, or even more, as compared to someone who holds 245 seats.   A mathematical Power Index explains how   Quote Let’s get on with the “Power Indices” of the various political parties.   Think of it this way : suppose you require a 50% plus majority to form a government and there are 3 parties in the parliament with the following seat tally : 44%, 39% and 17%.   Now, any two of these can join together to form the government and therefore all three of them have exactly equal power, no matter that Party 3 has got less than half the number of seats that the first two have. This is a concept that is of use in any ‘majority wins’ decision rule from shareholder resolutions to jury decisions.   Suppose there are 4 parties in the fray this time around: A, B, C and D parties, having 35%, 34%, 17% and 14% of the seats resp. Again if a simple majority is needed to form a government, any two out of A, B & C can form a government whereas the Party D’s support is never really crucial to anyone.   If this party’s 14% is added onto the percentages of any of the first three parties, the sum does not exceed 50% and any larger coalition of parties doesn’t require its support anyway. Party D is therefore called a ‘dummy’ - an apt term for someone whose vote can never change a losing coalition into a winning one or vice versa.   The dummy has no power, while all the other three parties i.e. A, B and C have equal power.   This is inspite of the fact that Party C has far fewer seats than A and B and only a few more than the smallest one i.e. Party D   For those interested, there is a technical concept called the Banzhaf Power Index (BPI) of a group, party or person which is defined as the number of ways in which that group, party or person can change a losing coalition into a winning one or vice versa.   In the preceding example, the BPI of parties A, B and C are equal and that of Party D is zero.    In fact as an individual MP, you are better-off being a part of Party C than Party A or B because as part of the government you get a disproportionate share of the goodies. This is exactly what happened in U.P. where virtually every MLA of a marginal party who joined the BJP government was made a minister - something that was a remote dream for most BJP MLAs.   Unquote (First Global's weekly 'Markets, Majorities and Maths', January 1998)   Thus if a few smaller partners can hold whichever coalition government to ransom, it introduces uncertainty.   “The more things change, the more they stay the same” Hence, I can repeat a 1998 piece which has contemporary parallels   We may be in for some interesting times.   History also shows coalition governments have been pretty good for the economy and markets.

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CAM Blog: The latest post on our blog by Pranjita Barman, Anirud Sudarsan and Ayushi Agrawal is on “Acquisition of NBFC-MFIs by Banks: Key Considerations” Read it at: https://lnkd.in/dgAWEBFR #BankingRegulationAct #MFIs #NBFCs #RBI #BlogsbyCAM

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Proptech venture fund Spyre Proptech Venture Fund has made its first investment of ₹3.5 crores in Spintly, which provides access control and smart building solutions. The funding round saw participation from Accel in India, Chakra Growth Capital Fund, Alumni Ventures, and Doctor Technology. Previously Spintly has raised capital from investors like LetsVenture, RiSo Capital, SucSEED Indovation, and Accel Nest. With the new capital Spintly plans to accelerate its market reach, increase its presence in different countries, strengthen senior management functions, and expand the scope of its smart building solutions by leveraging AI and machine learning. The company has already deployed it’s solutions across 24 million square feet of real estate. Backed by CREDAI National , Spyre VC has a corpus of $50 million and a management team with over 40 years of collective experience in real estate, investment, and technology sectors.

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Story of a 137 year Business Group - born in God’s own Country 🌴 🌳 🥥 ! In the heart of Kerala 🏝️ over a century ago, Mr. Nainan Mathai founded a business conglomerate - to be known as “Muthoot Group’. We all know about 🟥 Red Muthoot. But there is another Muthoot from the same origins - but less known - the 🟦Blue Muthoot or Muthoot Capital Services Limited (MCSL). It's a story of grit, growth and vision that spans over 3 decades and can serve as an inspiration to many. Mr Muthoot Papachan was a visionary who started Muthoot Capital in the early 90’s. One thing very clear to him as a strong business principle: Trust. In his own words - “If someone had ten rupees in savings, five would go to SBI, three to Federal Bank, and two to Muthoot.” This trust, earned over decades, has been the bedrock of Muthoot Capital’s success. The business model of the entity is worth studying on two aspects > 🥇 business models will have to evolve over time to keep pace and 🥈   diversification can help a business flourish on multiple growth engines while reducing risk of dependence on one revenue line. 🏅 Evolution of business model  1994 > Muthoot Capital started as a ‘Direct Selling Agent’ (DSA) to Banks.   2008 > Loans for two wheelers was an emerging market in Kerala and the rest of India. Seeing this opportunity, Muthoot Capital pivoted to starting its own two wheeler financing business. After this, there was no looking back! 2016 - 17 > Muthoot Capital started diversifying 👍 🏅 Diversification  Currently, Muthoot Capital has a well diversified business consisting of auto financing, used car financing, commercial vehicle financing, loyalty loans and FDs. A key factor in MCSL's success is its technology driven growth 💻 Their loan origination system can provide approvals in as little as 10 to 15 minutes, streamlining operations and enhancing customer satisfaction. Muthoot Capital disburses approximately 15,000 to 20,000 loans per month using its tech infrastructure. Like other NBFCs, Covid was a challenging time for Muthoot Capital. Business took a beating as people were rendered immobile due to lockdown. However, what is praiseworthy is that by sticking to basics - that is by focusing on ➕ unit economics and diversifying across multiple revenue lines - from a net loss in FY 22, the company has turned around to clock a profit of Rs 122 Cr in FY 2023.  Muthoot Capital currently is present across 20 states and serves around 4,50,000 customers.  Recently, I had a fascinating discussion with the CEO of Muthoot Capital, Mr. Mathews Markose and CFO, Mr Ramandeep Singh. What stood out in the candid talk was a very clear view on profitability along with vision to making this entity thrive for the next century ⏲️ If you want to know about the 9 fold growth strategy of Muthoot Capital, watch the video here 🎥 https://lnkd.in/gtpFRAM5 Muthoot Capital Services Ltd - India Mathews Markose Ramandeep Gill #management #nbfc

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Detailed discussion with NDTV Profit on Q2FY25 results and the outlook for various sectors.

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Thrilled to share my insights featured in Realty+ on what’s propelling India’s growth story forward! From the rise of warehousing and GCCs to the transformative impact of smart cities, these drivers are setting the stage for a remarkable future. With a projected GDP growth of 7.2% for FY 2025, the momentum is truly inspiring. It’s an exciting time for our economy, and I’m thrilled to be part of this journey through Arbour Investments. Read more about what’s shaping India’s future: https://bit.ly/40fxFLy #IndiaGrowthStory #SmartCities #WarehousingRevolution #EconomicDevelopment #FutureOfIndia #ArbourInvestments

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Market Analysis: Key Insights and Investment Opportunities Anil Singhvi, Managing Editor at ZEE Business, had an insightful conversation with Devang Mehta, Director - Equity Advisory at Spark PWM Private Limited, covering crucial market perspectives: Market Direction: Current market correction signals a short-term adjustment phase. However, fundamental economic indicators remain robust. Mid & Small Cap Outlook: Selective opportunities exist in this segment. This could be an opportune time to invest in quality companies with strong fundamentals. Trump Tariff Impact: Limited anticipated impact on Indian markets. Our domestic economy's strength serves as our biggest buffer. Investment Opportunities: Capital Goods ER & D Discretionary Consumption Infrastructure Key Recommendations: - Focus on long-term investments - Maintain portfolio diversification - Adopt regular investment strategy Expert's View: "The current market dynamics present selective buying opportunities, especially in sectors showing strong growth potential." - Devang Mehta Remember: Market corrections often create opportunities for patient investors looking at quality stocks with strong fundamentals. Watch the complete interview here: https://lnkd.in/dPFjMAvE #MarketAnalysis #InvestmentStrategy #IndianMarkets #EquityMarkets #FinancialMarkets #InvestmentOpportunities #StockMarket

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#Protean's initiative to launch the 'Apni Kahani Ka Hero' campaign is a bold and refreshing move in the digital public infrastructure space! While it's indeed unusual for such products to adopt advertising, this campaign seems to go beyond promoting a product—it tells a story of empowerment, innovation, and inclusivity. Building a stronger digital ecosystem requires not just robust solutions but also relatable narratives that inspire adoption and trust. Kudos to Protean for leading the charge in bridging this gap. #DigitalTransformation #Innovation #IndiaStory #PublicInfrastructure #ApniKahaniKaHero"

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SEBI board meeting highlights: Faster rights issue, new asset class, T+0 settlement, but mum on F&O SEBI has now given additional time of three hours, instead of 30 minutes, for disclosure of outcome of the meeting of the board of directors that concludes after trading hours. Read full story here https://bit.ly/3ZHGRIz

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With the #Olympic Games Paris 2024 just around the corner, the integration of the Unified Payments Interface (#UPI) at key locations in #Paris marks a significant milestone. Indian visitors can now enjoy the ease of making payments at iconic spots like the Eiffel Tower and Galeries Lafayette using UPI, mirroring the convenience they experience back home. This move is more than a convenience; it symbolises the bridging of nations through technology. The launch of UPI at such a pivotal time underscores the importance of seamless, efficient payment systems for millions of travellers. As an Indian in Paris, you can now focus on enjoying the games and the sights without worrying about currency exchanges and transaction hassles. UPI’s journey since its inception in 2016 has been nothing short of remarkable. Reaching 14 billion transactions in June 2024 with a 49% year-on-year increase shows its massive impact. This growth highlights how powerful and reliable UPI is, making it a role model for other countries. As we gear up for the excitement of the Olympic Games Paris 2024, it’s heartening to see how UPI is enhancing the experience for Indian visitors. This isn’t just about payments; it’s about making global travel more seamless and enjoyable. International Olympic Committee – IOC https://lnkd.in/d3rTdBGy #UPI #Paris #Eiffel #Olympics #National #Technology #Games

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Enabling the Future of Wealth Management in India: Perspectives from Investors Trust Philip Story, Senior Executive Officer and Head of Distribution for EMEA at Investors Trust, gave a presentation at the Hubbis India Wealth Management Forum in late August, highlighting the firm’s capabilities and missions. These insights are particularly relevant in the context of their plans to soon open an office in GIFT City in India. Below is a summary of his key observations. Read on here: https://lnkd.in/ghTYezgG #WealthManagement #WealthSolutions #WealthPlanning #Innovation #India #ThrowbackThursday

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My views in Hindu Businessline on the magnanimous listing of the one and only Bajaj Housing Finance https://lnkd.in/dUDR8XRX

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News Headline from Leading Financial News Papers, Wednesday, 24 April 2024 •After 15 months, PayU gets RBI’s in-principle nod to operate as a payment aggregator • JPMorgan's bull-case scenario takes Nifty near 25,000 if BJP wins General Elections • Gokaldas Exports announces QIP issue price of Rs 775 per share •Tata AIA Life Insurance crosses Rs 1 lakh crore in AUM •NCLT admits insolvency resolution plea against listed infra firm Sadbhav Engineering •TV distributors bet on bundling to arrest churn •Naveen Jindal group plans Rs 15,000-crore green energy push •Jio now world's top mobile operator by data traffic •Mahindra Finance detects about Rs 150 cr fraud in retail vehicle loan portfolio •Non-Metro cities see a big growth in credit demand: Report •Patanjali case: SC intensifies focus on misleading ads by FMCG companies •Power Grid to infuse funds in National High Power Testing Laboratory; to hold 50 pc stake •Reliance wins govt nod for additional investment to raise KG-D6 gas output • JNK India IPO subscribed 49% on Day 1, QIBs take lead •T&D segment to get a boost as demand, capex and commodity prices drive growth: Motilal Oswal • Sudden spike in FinNifty put options, premium goes up almost 10x • Special audit begins at IIFL Finance after RBI restricted gold loan sanction • 'SEBI extends cross margin benefit on offsetting positions having different expiry dates •NBCC bags new work orders worth ₹23,500 cr in FY24 • Bulk deals: Societe Generale, Marshall Wace active in Bandhan Bank, BoB and Manappuram Finance • ICICI Prudential Life Insurance to focus on growing absolute VNB amid slump in FY24 • 'FSSAI lens on Nestle for baby food sugar levels, more brands face scrutiny: Reports •Bajaj Auto appoints Abraham Joseph as MD of Chetak Technology, Ramtilak Ananthan as BAL CTO • Juniper Green Energy, Tata Power sign PPA for 85 MW hybrid project in Maharashtra • Stellantis India to hike vehicle prices by up to Rs 17,000 from April 30 • Razorpay announces 'UPI Switch' in partnership with Airtel Payments Bank • Air India enters into codeshare pact with Japan's All Nippon Airways • L&T manufactures hydrotreating reactor for refinery in Mexico • Vodafone Idea FPO, future funding plans to ensure India remains strong three-private telco market: Analysts • Sebi queries global funds on Adani stocks manipulation • Tata Consumer completes Capital Foods integration, expands market reach • Cyient DLM's profit after tax in FY24 surges 93% • Tata Consumer Q4: Premium, sub-premium segments drive revenue growth for India Tea portfolio •Tata Elxsi Q4 net profit, revenue decline QoQ; firm declares dividend of Rs 70 per share • Tata Consumer's India foods business continues double digit growth • Coca-Cola signs $1.1 billion deal to use Microsoft cloud, AI services • AU Small Finance Bank launches credit cards with exclusive features.

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While the market has entered into a correction phase, it is time to invest in high growth Indian companies. Small Caps - are no longer ‘small’ as the largest small cap has a market cap of Rs 35k cr+ - offer much wider set of companies for Fund Manager to choose from Example - 32 small caps in infrastructure vs 1 in large cap - exposure to multiple high growth themes can be taken only through small caps - have a track record of generating higher numbers of multibaggers Many interesting aspects of current markets, macros, growth outlook, asset allocation, relative valuation discussed threadbare with Jyoti Rai 🇮🇳 TRUST Mutual Fund TRUST #mutualfundssahihai #mutualfunds

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Shared my perspective on the election outcome and its potential effects on the financial industry and economy. Read more insights at link below..

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Great to see The Economic Times cover DC Advisory India Mid Market PE/VC monitor. Check out here https://lnkd.in/gXVn-4JG We are currently in a tale of two markets, with the India public markets at a record high & state of euphoria, whilst Indian private markets continue to be more price sensitive and selective with a strong preference for secondary transactions in profitable or strong unit economic steady compounders and continued tight funding conditions for new-age tech unicorns with significant cash burn. Given India's strong macro economic fundamentals in combination with exit pressures among many Indian VC's/PE's, we expect secondary activity to pick-up further during H2 of 2024 whilst primary funding conditions will continue to be challenging and are likely to take a couple more quarters before getting back to the levels seen pre-covid. Interesting times ahead and big thank you to the DC team that put the report together Meherzad Kelawala Kushal Lathia Naman Shah Ashish Gokarnkar Avani Bhatt #makingadifference #privateequity #venturecapital #middlemarket #mergersandacquisitions #india #privatemarkets #publicmarkets

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In the EC this month we have Namita Vikas. Founder of auctusESG, a sustainable finance and ESG firm. Read on to find out more about the company, and Namita. Born: 1971 Homes: Mumbai, London and New York School: Canossa Convent Girls High School, where Wren and Martin books were not only used to refine language, grammar and composition, but also, placed on the head as a posture corrector University: Columbia University and Mumbai University First job: Giving demos and selling mixer grinders outside a white good store (Curry’s equivalent) Cars: First car was a Fiat. Now a proud owner of a Mini Cooper. As a climate action evangelist, not so proud of my buy - the hybrid Mercedes GLE 53 AMG. Last Holiday: Cayuga Lake, Ithaca, New York Favourite book: The Godfather, Mario Puzo and I Do What I Do, Dr Raghuram Rajan Favourite film: The Big Short- lesson learnt is that patience is not just a life virtue, but can be transformative in the realm of finance and investing Favourite music: 80s and 90s pop like Celine Dion Favourite drink: Rhubarb and ginger gin on the rocks, with a nice squeeze of a lemon Favourite watch: Chopard- Happy Sport Favourite gadget: My iPhone. Lost without it Cat or dog: Love dogs. 2 in the family, Rufus and Winnie Charity: Charities aimed at environmental protection and food and water security, with Finance at the helm Q: Could you sum up your company for us in no more than 100 words? A: auctusESG is a sustainable finance and ESG advisory firm that works with the global financial sector on sustainable finance, climate risks and the climate transition. With practitioners in leadership positions, the firm has successfully completed many impactful projects with marquee clients, including the governments of the UK, Chile, Zimbabwe and India, UN agencies including UNDP, UNESCO, UN Women, DFIs like the ADB, Proparco and international organisations like the World Bank, and the Rabo Foundation. The firm works extensively on skill enhancement and so far, has trained 1500+ credit and risk officers across large public and private sector banks, in India, Latin America, Central Asia and APAC specifically on climate risk management. Q: What is the best advice you’ve ever received or given? A:  ” If failure is likely, fail fast” – advice by my ex-boss, (Harsh Mariwala, Chairman, Marico Industries). It is good way to mitigate losses Q: What is something you wish you’d always known? A: The loneliness and isolation of being an entrepreneur Q: What does your typical working day look like? A: Depending on my time zone, I start my day between 0300-0900 hrs, with internal emails, calls, ensuring speedy decisions, eliminating bottlenecks for the team. Followed by attending to tasks at hand, client meetings, project deliverables. Prep for any public speaking engagements for the week. With 25-30% of time allocated to upgrading knowledge, given the fast-evolving space and frequent regulatory or banking updates within climate finance sector.

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