Marjut Falkstedt

Linkedfin#5 - A New Era Of Uncertainty In our book "The New World Economy in 5 Trends", Philippe Gijsels and I make a case – hopefully a convincing one – that we have entered a new era. We went from the Great Moderation into the Great Disequilibrium. Whether we are right or not will only be be clear in the next 5 to 10 years (wise economists and strategists ALWAYS do forecasts on the long term). However this chart, which shows the Global Geopolitical Risks index calculated by Economic Policy Uncertainty, shows we are up to something. Uncertainty has increased and is above its long term average over the last four years. A look at the newspapers over the past couple of days corroborates this finding: the chiefs of the CIA and SIS state in the Financial Times that ‘the international world order is under threat in a way we haven’t seen since the cold war’; coffee and cacao prices are peaking while the copper price reached a new high a couple of months ago; China, who controls a huge market share of various rare earths and other minerals and basic materials, is limiting the export of galium and germanium which are crucial in the production of semiconductors; …. Is this a sign of the times, or will all cool without blowing? We can only hope, but hope is not a good strategy. And looking into the future doesn’t give much confidence things will calm down. De-globalisation (which we call multi-globalisation) has entered a new phase with Europe increasing its tariffs for Chinese electric vehicles. The symbiosis in which Europe exported its technology in exchange for access to a huge Chinese market is coming to an end. A second term of Donald Trump could make a definite end to decades of Pax Americana, and increase global shocks. Climate transition will increase natural catastrophies and disrupt supply chains. A shortage of various basic materials and rare earths will occasionally lead to price shocks. The bond vigilantes have woken up to the danger of the high public debts combined with structural higher interest rates. Liz Truss and the UK were the first to experience what happens when trust disappears. In the coming years, other countries will follow. And the different challenges we confront including ageing, increased defence spending, etc. will make controlling spending more difficult. Conclusion: we are in a new era and countries, investors and households better prepare. 

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💸 Every year, development banks finance hundreds of projects aimed at improving the sustainability and well-being in the countries in which they operate. But all too often they end up violating human rights instead. ❌ 🔎 As the EBRD updates its safeguards and the European Investment Bank (EIB) reviews its complaints mechanism, Nina LESIKHINA, Anna Roggenbuck and Eléonore Morel emphasise the need for both banks to prioritise transparency, rigorous risk assessments, meaningful public participation, human rights protection, and improved means of redress. 🗞 Read more in our opinion piece for Les Echos (in French): https://lnkd.in/eSNgHG8x #EBRD #StandUpForHumanRights

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Step in the right direction, but I’d say, far from enough. We need strong incentives on the demand side. And demand should mainly come from the “traditional” heavy industries in need of transformation and modernization. Without promoting this “synergy” between #CleanTech and heavy industry, we risk to waste money both on the supply and demand side, with little efficiency

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Happy to share our latest European Central Bank blog on “Hedge funds: good or bad for market functioning?” written together with Federico Maria Ferrara, Benoit Nguyen, Imène Rahmouni-Rousseau, Marta Skrzypinska and Lia Cruz. Hedge funds have substantially increased their trading activity in euro area government bond and repo markets. In our ECB Blog we evaluate how this plays out for market functioning and intermediation. https://lnkd.in/eTJ-_iaN

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How to invest in an uncertain environment, marked by a global economic slowdown and high valuations? By focusing on quality companies. At Carmignac, quality is based on two criteria: • High and sustainable profitability • Reinvestment of profits to support future growth Carmignac has built expertise to identify profitable companies over the long term through an Article 9 international equity fund: Carmignac Portfolio Grandchildren. The Fund's approach demonstrates our commitment to help investors build sustainable capital that will benefit not only themselves, but also future generations. 🔎 Discover the Fund → https://okt.to/7mSoaQ #assetmanagement #marketingcommunication #finance #investment #investinginyourinterest

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🌍 Climate Change & Economic Impact 🌍 📢 Pierre Wunsch, Governor of the National Bank of Belgium, shares his insights in De Standaard on the pressing issue of climate change and its profound impact on our economy. 📄 Summary https://lnkd.in/eMXuXket 🔗 Read the full article https://lnkd.in/eArU_Z4u #zozijnwij #cesttoutafaitnous

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Being self employed in Luxembourg is far from being easy… At Payrolla.lu, we have designed our solution to actively address these shortcomings. Social protection is one thing but 74% of self-employed and freelancers are paid late (!). It's important to look after these experts, who bring agility and direct added value to companies and to Luxembourg society.

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The father of European Union Jacques de Larosiere wishing the best for INBONIS RATING. He agrees a European Credit Rating for SMEs midcaps scale ups and start ups is the best infrastructure for an European inclusive capital market and a healthy balance between banks and companies…we are here to solve a market failure providing a public good with private efficiency

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#ESMA is ramping up more #finservices #regulation on #MiFIR review – covering #consolidatedtape #nonequity #tradetransparency, #reasonablecommercialbasis & #referencedata. Also final rules on #conflictsofinterest linked to #MiCA, and a statement on #AI - more news soon #electronictrading #DataStandards #Tradingprotocols

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And the details are now coming thru #ESMA launches a CP today on #nonequity #tradetransparency, #reasonablecommercialbasis (#RCB) and #referencedata under the #MiFIR review. #ESMA is seeking input on three topics: 1. Pre- and post-#tradetransparency requirements for #nonequity (#bonds, #structuredfinanceproducts and #emissions and #allowances), which aims to improve, simplify, and harmonize transparency requirements between #realtime #transparency and #deferredpublication. 2. Obligation to make pre-and post-#tradedata available on #RCB to ensure #marketdata is available to users in an accessible, fair, and non-discriminatory manner. CP elaborates on #costbased nature of #fees and the applicable #reasonablemargin; and  3. Obligation to provide instrument #referencedata that is fit for both #transaction reporting and #transparency purposes. #ESMA also proposes amendments to align this data with other relevant reporting frameworks and international standards. Read more here - https://lnkd.in/eU4SPgGR #Finreg #FIXTradingProtocol #ISO #standards

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🚀 Cocorico ! LightOn.ai’s #IPO: a strategic move for #GenerativeAI in Europe Last Friday, LightOn.ai maked a major milestone by announcing the launch of its #IPO on Euronext Growth Paris. The French company aims to raise between €10.4 million and €13.5 million. I see this #IPO as a pivotal moment for the European generative AI landscape. ❓Here’s why: 1️⃣Accelerated R&D and tech capabilities: The capital raised will fuel LightOn’s research and development, a crucial investment in an increasingly competitive and innovative sector. 2️⃣Enhanced financial transparency: By becoming a public company, LightOn commits to greater financial transparency, an essential element to attract and retain the confidence of investors and strategic partners. 3️⃣International expansion: this #IPO serves as a springboard for LightOn.ai’s growth beyond European borders, with ambitions to expand into Europe and the Middle East. At Forvis Mazars en France, our Capital Markets & Accounting Advisory team is dedicated to the support of the companies at every stage of their IPO journey—from financial reporting preparation to strategic transaction structuring. We help businesses navigate market requirements to maximize #IPO success. 📩 Curious? Feel free to contact me in DM for more privacy. #IPO #LightOn #CapitalMarkets #GenerativeAI #Innovation #Euronext #ForvisMazars #IPOAdvisory https://lnkd.in/ep69Fh8X

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Beside the very strong position expressed in this article, I'd like to quote : "The international orientation of Luxembourg’s financial centre is rooted in a larger vision. In an era where protectionism threatens to close borders and isolate economies, Luxembourg stands as one of the EU’s staunchest proponents of global engagement." (Tom Theobald) Luxembourg for Finance Tom Théobald #finance #luxembourg #financialservices

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🎥🎙️🇱🇺Driving Innovation and Sustainability: Tom Théobald’s Vision for Luxembourg’s Financial Centre. The latest episode of SPOT & FORWARD #Luxembourg #Global #Financial #Hub #EUsSavings #InvestmentUnion #Sustainable #Finance #Green #Investments #Innovation #Blockchain 👇👇👇👇

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🔔 **New Dynamics in the European Parliament?** 🔔 Following the 2nd round in France, an announcement could be made in the European Parliament regarding the integration of the National Rally (RN) MEPs into a new group with Fidesz, ANO, and FPÖ. This development marks a possible reshuffle of alliances within the European far-right. 📌 **Context:** Marine Le Pen is considering leaving her current group to join this new coalition, strengthening collaboration between these nationalist and conservative parties. 🌍 **Impact:** This alliance could alter the balance of political forces in the European Parliament and influence future policies. #Politics #EuropeanParliament #RN #Fidesz #ANO #FPÖ #Europe 🔗 [Read the full article](https://lnkd.in/e66t7_za)

It was a huge pleasure to talk about our book “the new world economy in 5 trends”, economics, philosophy, markets and life on the podcast “ now way out” for market VUCA. A big thanks to Mark McGrath for the opportunity and the great conversation. https://lnkd.in/dAtx7yfh

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How was 2️⃣0️⃣2️⃣4️⃣ for you❓ 📣The beginning of a New Year is always a good moment to sum up the past year one. 🎯 For me 2024 professionally was a year of development in two important for me directions. The first was boards and I am very proud to have accomplished the European Board Diploma and obtained another supervisory board function. The second was management board advisory in terms of sustainability reporting. I can say that 2024 for me was marked by double materiality analysis under ESRS. 📕 In 2024 I had the pleasure not only to gain knowledge but also to share it which I treat as a privilege. It is always motivating to receive positive feedback on one’s trainings. I believe trainings are a good way to promote sustainable corporate governance. I am especially proud that the first edition of post graduate studies “Professional supervisory board” which I have co-launched with Ewa Radkowska - Świętoń and Prof. NU Franjo Mlinaric, PhD has been accomplished while the second edition was oversubscribed. 🔊 The past year was also marked by further development of 30% Club Poland, a social campaign that I co-launched with Aleksandra Włodarczyk and many other fascinating ladies 3,5 years ago. The campaign grew in power gaining more members and supporters and spreading the word on the need for gender diversity thanks to, among other, favourable media support and interesting reports which I had the pleasure to co-write with Małgorzata Kloka, Anna Golec, PhD, CFA and Katarzyna Domańska. 📍Personally, for me the year meant the third year of fighting to walk again on my own feet without crutches. This year should show whether that battle has been successfully won so keep your fingers crossed. And you, how would you sum up 2024❓

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