John Mauldin

Will the current violence between two warring factions of the Sinaloa drug cartel spill over to the rest of Mexico, and onwards to the US-Mexico border? According to Statista, Mexico had some of highest criminal-related murder rates worldwide in recent years. The list does not include countries where war and conflict exist.The cartels and the drug trade fuel rampant corruption and violence in Mexico. According to the Council of Foreign Relations (CFR), tens of thousands of Mexicans—including politicians, students, journalists, and innocent women and children —die in the Mexican drug-conflicts between warring cartels every year. The country has seen more than 431,000 homicides since 2006, when the government declared war on the cartels. The current power struggle between the old leadership under "Los Chapitos" and an ambitious new generation (Zambada wing) seeking absolute control has turned the State of Sinaloa into a warzone over who seizes control of strategic routes and markets of a multi-billion dollar global illicit enterprise including the trafficking of illegal narcotics, fentanyl, opioids, and other contraband In recent weeks, at least 50 people have been killed and scores missing, according Mexico’s National Defense Ministry, and NGOs. The clashes in the state’s capital Culiacan are the latest example of the violence that continues to plague #Mexico, where cartels employ increasingly sophisticated forms of warfare, including roadside bombs or IEDs, trenches, home-made armored vehicles and bomb-dropping drones. #homelandsecurity #threatintelligence #cartels #fentanyl

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The #Maduro #regime, often described as a narco-dictatorship, has issued an arrest warrant against the legitimate President of Venezuela, @EdmundoGU. This move is a serious escalation in the ongoing political crisis, reflecting the regime's increasing desperation to suppress dissent and eliminate political opposition. The Maduro government has consistently used its control over state institutions to target political rivals, manipulate the legal system, and silence critics. Issuing an arrest warrant for @EdmundoGU is not just an attack on one individual, but a direct assault on democratic values and the will of the Venezuelan people who continue to resist the authoritarian rule. This action is a clear indication of the regime's intent to maintain power at any cost, disregarding international norms and the fundamental rights of Venezuelans. It is crucial for the international community to condemn this development and stand in solidarity with those fighting for #democracy and #freedom in #Venezuela🇻🇪. La narco dictadura de Maduro ha solicitado una orden de aprehensión contra el Presidente legítimo de Venezuela, @EdmundoGU . Gravísimo.

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Venezuela has «continuously expanded an extensive surveillance apparatus that is now being used to suppress pro-democracy protests and target opposition voices. This includes using the messaging app VenApp to report “anti-Chavistas,” video surveillance, and patrolling drones to monitor and intimidate citizens. These tools, combined with the state-sponsored program “Operación Tun Tun” (“Operation Knock-Knock”), have facilitated widespread violence, harassment, doxxing, and arbitrary detentions of activists, journalists, and citizens.»" Doxxing through state-owned apps, video surveillance, and patrolling drones to monitor and intimidate citizens are part of the repression toolkit. [Via Access Now] https://lnkd.in/eS8zfr7h

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I can't open the link, My impression from two weeks in Holguin, Santiago and Havana last month is that the system has lost all credibility. Who are the leaders in the government, Party and military capable of making the radical political, economic and social reforms that are essential for sovereign independence (like Nguyen Van Linh and Vo Van Kiet in Viet Nam)? The US can assist the process by finding the courage to end SSOT and the embargo, This is the paper I presented in Havana https://lnkd.in/eXSHiRyb

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There is an interesting article on the front page of the WSJ today about the upcoming election for president in Venezuela. The title is "Maduro Allies Hunt Dissidents Abroad Ahead of Venezuela's Election." Essentially, Maduro and his allies are sending out "death squads" to known dissidents living outside of Venezuela. They are showing up at their homes and dragging them away from their families only to be found later wearing concrete shoes. This is part of an elaborate effort by Maduro to hang onto power in the face of popular sentiment in Venezuela for his opposition candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez. Pollsters say Gonzalez could easily win in a fair election. But, that isn't the kind of elections that are held these days in Venezuela. Over there Stalin's quote about it being more important who counts the votes than who makes the votes is a truism. Maduro has been elected and re-elected because he and his party make sure they have the votes no matter what the opposition does. You will recall when Trump was president, he tired to invalidate the Maduro's last fraudulent election and recognize his opponent, Juan Guaido. In 2019 Trump leveled sanctions on Venezuela's oil industry, hoping to squeeze the economy and force out Maduro. You may also remember that in this country the left took Maduro's side. AOC and her squad carried banners saying "Hands off Venezuela." They accused the U.S. of "imperialist" actions against a sovereign leftist country. At the time, AOC said “I think we need to reexamine the nature of the sanctions.” And blamed them for the influx of Venezuelan's at our southern border. She later had to admit, however, that Maduro was partly responsible for sending the migrants to us. But, as noted, the left essentially took Maduro's side. Now Maduro is again up for election and as noted, he is not above political assassination to stay in power. The WSJ article suggests that part of his desire to be re-elected is to avoid facing justice for drug trafficking and extra-judicial killing in Venezuela and abroad. And this is the man our left pressured our government to protect. Once again moral equivalence gone mad. The left seeing Venezuela under Maduro as the little guy being beaten up by the big guy, America. In this case, under the auspices of a Trump administration and Trump economic sanctions. Are you starting to see a pattern here? Is it dawning on you yet how the left in this country always blames America first regardless of how depraved our enemies are?

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Over the past decade, Russian-based companies have provided sophisticated surveillance technology to several Latin American countries. These technologies are critical to the survival of the repressive regimes in Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba, and possibly criminal nonstate actors. The transfer of surveillance technologies and other cyber activities, often run by Russian intelligence officials directly tied to Russia’s state cyber structures, goes beyond traditionally understood gray zone activities. While these technologies empower the region’s most repressive regimes and criminal threat networks, they also give Russia access to key military, law enforcement, and financial data in multiple countries in the Western Hemisphere. If you are seeing attempted login in’s from this region and these nations then these should be investigated further.

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“Although the consequences of Maduro’s fraud are borne first and foremost by the long-suffering people of Venezuela, there are underestimated spillover effects: with Maduro at the helm, Caracas is an asset to a rogues’ gallery of autocratic governments, including those of China, Cuba, Iran, Nicaragua, and Russia—all of which rushed to recognize Maduro’s fraudulent victory. The regime is also deeply involved in transnational crime, including narcotics and gold trafficking. Venezuela’s accelerating descent into criminality and dependence on nefarious alliances demands the creation of a broad-based diplomatic and legal cordon sanitaire around the country. Going forward, a coalition of democratic countries must keep the world’s attention on Venezuela, impose targeted sanctions on the regime in Caracas, and create divisions among regime insiders and enablers—all the while maintaining channels for potential dialogue between Caracas and the political opposition.”

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Is Cuba Actually Influencing 2024 Elections in Florida? The Miami Herald has flung all concern for journalistic standards to the wind in a fear-mongering piece speculating that Cuba will influence 2024 elections in Florida. The evidence? McClatchy correspondent Michael Wilner and Miami Herald reporter Nora Gámez Torres present none. Instead, they base their piece on an “assessment,” about which almost no details are provided, by anonymous officials with the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. Wilner and Gámez Torres dedicate most of the article to citing previous examples of Cuba’s alleged meddling in Florida politics, including another article written by Wilner about another assessment from the same Director of National Intelligence (notice a theme?) that stated the Cuban government attempted to denigrate “specific U.S. candidates in Florida” during the 2022 midterm elections. That report states that Cuban officials sought to “establish relationships with members of the U.S. media who held critical views of members of Congress.” This is no bombshell. Governments around the world have officials who work to build relationships with members of the U.S. media, especially ones that may be sympathetic. It’s called media relations. Read more at: https://lnkd.in/eBA8F9ur

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**Conflict flashpoints** Venezuela appears to be on the brink of civil war 💔 , after Sunday’s election was declared a resounding victory for incumbent Nicolás Maduro, despite actual counts showing a landslide for the opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez. This is an evolving situation and I have no idea what’s happening on the ground other than a smattering of reports on X, but statues of Maduro are being toppled, angry crowds have taken to the streets, and shots are being fired from both sides. It’s tragic and scary, but also hopeful. Going back to the status quo would be even more tragic. Things are complicated, however, by China’s declaration of support for Maduro’s falsified victory. Meanwhile, the Middle East balance is getting even more fragile after a drone strike over the weekend, blamed on Iran-backed Hezbollah, killed 12 children 💔. US and other international officials and diplomats scrambled to persuade Israel to not retaliate by bombing Beirut, as that could escalate fast. They were not successful – news just in reports a large explosion in a Beirut suburb, and the death of a Hezbollah leader. Now it remains to be seen what Hezbollah and Iran do to retaliate the retaliation. Gold jumped on the news, and had been trending up over the past few days anyway as tensions mount. BTC and oil have not reacted yet, but both have a lot of other narratives going on. 

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🌎#Criminal #organizations demonstrated this past year that they pose a growing threat to #democracy in #LatinAmerica and the #Caribbean, exerting nefarious influence over numerous elections and political situations throughout the region. Some criminal groups directly threatened or killed candidates and elected officials, depriving citizens of their right to a freely chosen, truly representative government. In other cases, criminal networks used corruption to manipulate or obstruct elections, and to bend governments to their whim—regardless of the popular will. Organized crime also had indirect impacts on political dynamics. Some political leaders pursued hardline anti-crime policies that were politically popular but often at odds with human rights. Others found their reputations stained by allegations of ties to criminal activity. In a year that saw major elections in more than a half-dozen countries in the region, organized crime clearly demonstrated the scale of the threat it poses to democracy. And some early signs suggest the situation could spiral into a destructive cycle. Direct Interference : The most brazen example of criminal democratic interference in 2024 occurred in Haiti 🇭🇹, where gangs effectively overtook the state as the dominant power. Criminal groups forced the resignation of the prime minister, intimidated an international security support mission, and positioned themselves to pose a significant challenge to a return to democratic governance. Mexico 🇲🇽 also saw an unprecedented campaign of politicized criminal violence amid the country’s largest-ever elections, held in June. To maintain the political influence that facilitates their illicit activities, criminals assassinated, attacked, and threatened dozens of political targets across the country during the campaign season. Armed men even stopped a vehicle carrying the eventual winner of the presidential race, Claudia Sheinbaum. The violence did not stop after the election. Within days of Sheinbaum taking office in October, the mayor of a major city in southwest Mexico was beheaded, providing a gruesome reminder of how organized crime can nullify electoral outcomes. Ecuador 🇪🇨 started the year still reeling from the gang-linked assassination of a presidential candidate in late 2023. Over the course of 2024, public servants found themselves increasingly in the crosshairs of the gangs, who targeted mayors, city council members, judges, prosecutors, and other political figures seen as potential obstacles to their criminal activities. President Daniel Noboa declared a state of internal armed conflict in January to combat the gangs, and he has largely staked his campaign for reelection in February 2025 on his anti-crime efforts. Still, the threat of criminal interference and violence will loom over the vote.

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Economic hardship comes with its own consequences in every nation. Sometimes the people have no control other than to react in certain ways. In Venezuela, severe economic mismanagement and plummeting oil prices have resulted in hyperinflation, leading to widespread shortages of food and medicine. The desperation for basic necessities has sparked protests, violence, and clashes between citizens and government forces, as people struggle to secure resources for survival. In South Sudan, ongoing civil war has roots in ethnic tensions exacerbated by economic hardship. Competition for dwindling resources, such as water and arable land, has led to violent clashes between different ethnic groups, with people resorting to extreme measures to protect their livelihoods. In cities like Detroit, Michigan, where economic decline led to massive job losses and urban decay, there has been a corresponding rise in crime rates. Desperation drives individuals to engage in illegal activities, such as theft or drug dealing, to survive, further destabilizing the community. In Zimbabwe, prolonged economic hardships have led to political corruption, where leaders prioritize personal gain over the welfare of citizens. This has resulted in protests met with violent crackdowns by security forces, as the population fights for basic human rights and economic opportunities. Economic collapse in countries like Syria has led to millions fleeing their homes in search of better opportunities. The mass migration creates tensions in host countries, where locals may feel threatened by an influx of refugees competing for jobs and resources, sometimes leading to xenophobia and violence. In regions experiencing economic hardship, like parts of Haiti, black markets thrive as people seek to survive. This can lead to exploitation, where desperate individuals may be forced into dangerous work or human trafficking as they struggle to support themselves and their families. In Greece, during the economic crisis, austerity measures led to widespread discontent. The resulting frustration and hopelessness contributed to the rise of extremist political groups, as people sought to reclaim power and voice their grievances, often leading to violent protests and riots. In countries facing extreme poverty, such as Afghanistan, children may be forced to abandon education to support their families. In Brazil, economic hardship and corruption have led to a significant loss of trust in governmental institutions. Citizens feeling disenfranchised may resort to vigilantism or mob justice, further eroding the rule of law and contributing to a climate of fear and violence. Nigerians are going through a lot, people are suffering and dying, those in authority must do something to intervene and reduce hunger. We cannot wait for the consequences of economic collapse.

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