Richard Andrew

The weaponization of deepfakes is a growing concern, exemplified by a recent incident involving over 100 Singapore public servants, including five ministers, who were targeted with extortion attempts using AI-generated compromising images. Key points to note from this event: - Targeting has evolved to focus on public officials with easily accessible online information and images. - The impact is widespread, affecting multiple government agencies simultaneously. - Similarities to attacks in Hong Kong indicate potential cross-border coordination. - Notably, the democratization of this threat is alarming, as deepfake attacks, once requiring advanced technical skills, are now more prevalent. Globally, there has been a significant 245% year-on-year increase in deepfakes, reflecting the technology's growing accessibility and sophistication, providing malicious actors with a potent tool for exploitation. https://lnkd.in/gRuWQHgU #Singapore #Deepfakes #Government #EthicalAI

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My latest South China Morning Post SCMP: Interviews with China's #civilservants have revealed a widespread fear of mistakes and a lack of flexibility, worsened by #CCDI's strict monitoring. In this environment, promotions serve as “carrot” while #corruption leads to dismissal, or “stick”. As the threat of stick grows and carrot remains unchanged, a culture of caution prevails. Further #centralization and #micromanagement have stifled innovation and creativity, resulting in a prevailing atmosphere of passivity and conformity, ultimately undermining the very objectives that the leadership seeks to promote: to get officials to do things. https://lnkd.in/g3-SyPhd #China #politics #CCP #Chinesegovernment #incentive #anticorruption

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China's export ban of several critical minerals is a warning shot, showing that China is serious in going tit-for-tat with the U.S. in any trade war. But the truth is, we yet don't know what impact China's actions are going to have. One thing we do know: China is insulating its supply chain and upgrading domestic manufacturing, even as the U.S. does the same. I enjoyed speaking with Inside Trade about the potential impacts of this recent export ban, and I'll be watching to see how the relevant supply chains evolve in the coming months. https://lnkd.in/gGEJjJcK

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China’s Overcapacity and Economic Malaise   #China’s recent economic woes have made headlines covering everything from #realestate to #debt, but Janet Yellen’s recent visit to China and her focus on China’s overcapacity and its tie-in with tariffs has captured headlines.   I was delighted to be interviewed by Voice of America's Bo Gu on this latest development in Sino-#American rivalry and Industrial Policy.   China’s # export-oriented economy not only usually has an incentive to export, but even if there was an incentive to decrease exports, #Chinese State Owned Enterprises, local #government, and much of the over-leveraged private sector have every incentive to maintain full speed ahead.   The result? Two parallel problems: 1) A collective action problem (ironic given that Command Economies of many types argue they have few difficulties with collective action problems) and 2) A free rider problem with everyone hoping somebody else pulls back.   For more details, and how this is likely to end, please see my latest in Voice of America.   https://lnkd.in/eMG_Z32z

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Today in Asia Times, I wrote about the intensifying arms race between the US and China in directed-energy weapons, focusing on anti-drone technologies critical for potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait. Both nations are rapidly developing high-power microwave and laser systems to counter the growing threat of drone swarms, showcased by China's recent display of mobile directed-energy weapons at the Zhuhai Airshow. The US, meanwhile, has demonstrated its Coyote Block 2 interceptors, which have successfully destroyed drones in global deployments and are expected to expand in numbers and sophistication. China's directed-energy weapons, developed by corporations like Norinco, highlight its strategic push to neutralize drones in high-volume scenarios, while the US is advancing towards enhanced capabilities through additional drone interceptors and directed-energy research. Both nations view directed-energy weapons as crucial due to their ability to neutralize multiple drones without reloading and with minimal collateral damage. However, operational challenges, including energy demands and limited stockpiles, mean the US and China are exploring both kinetic and non-kinetic solutions to meet future drone threats effectively.

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The Editorial Board of the East Asia Forum writes on how bad times in #China may make for the possibility of better #publicpolicy I think it is very much possible considering the #CCP's long term interests in building a strong, stability and productive #economy. Is it realistic? That depends if leadership changes the calculus of decision making. That seems unlikely under #xijinping Read more here: https://lnkd.in/g7ZxCFZ8 https://lnkd.in/dsiw73Wt

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South China Sea: Why a violent escalation might be imminent An armed conflict between the Philippines and China is brewing on no less than three reefs in the South China Sea. The situation could escalate quickly, even dragging the USA into a military conflict. 👉 China is currently building a massive blockade at Scarborough Shoal with the aim of blocking access to Philippine supply vessels. 👉 In the dispute over the Second Thomas Shoal, Beijing claims there is an agreement with Manila that would regulate access to the reef and an old stranded warship – to China's benefit. 👉 China reportedly began building an artificial island at Sabina Shoal – as it has already done at other locations in the South China Sea. China and the Philippines each invoke their supposedly legitimate rights. However, that is no longer the issue - at least since the Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling in The Hague. In July 2016, the court decided China's claims along a nine-dash line were null and void. But Beijing refuses to accept the ruling. In fact, China's leadership now seems willing to accept an armed conflict. But this could also quickly draw the USA into a military conflict. More China.Table and Table.Briefings With great assessment from Ray Powell #China #SouthChinaSea #Philippines #geopolitics #military https://lnkd.in/ewXTKEdC

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Asia-Pacific free trade pacts have been a big success for the U.S. (Bilahari Kausikan and Steven Okun for Nikkei Asia) At a dinner party last year, we got to discussing how 2024 was the 20th anniversary of the US-Singapore Free Trade Agreement and that this is a prime example of how "trade is strategy" and that FTAs tie together geopolitics and economics for the U.S. This led to Bilahari Kausikan, former Permanent Secretary at Singapore's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and I to co-author an Op Ed for Nikkei Asia highlighting how Washington's FTAs with Australia on the south side of the Indo-Pacific, Singapore in the center and South Korea in the north, give the U.S. a key advantage in its competition with China. Recognizing that the U.S. has admittedly experienced downsides from trade and globalization, especially in relation to China, which have effectively made trade a four-letter word in domestic politics, we write that those downsides have not come from Washington's FTAs with Australia, South Korea and Singapore and that those who want to see the U.S. competing with China from a position of strength should push for the next administration to make the opening of FTA talks with new regional partners and allies a priority. https://lnkd.in/gR24PdYE McLarty Associates APAC Advisors (Singapore)

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This podcast explores why Singapore emerged to play a leading role in Indo-Pacific business and geopolitical affairs--even hosting major international events like the Asia Tech Summit and the Shangri-La Dialogue. It talks about how Singapore came to be, and how it navigates its complex relationships with the US and China and practices a "consistent, principled and pragmatic" foreign policy. It also touches on Singapore's external security threats, its internal politics and its approach to balancing political stability against civil liberties. Finally, it explains how Beijing's crackdown in Hong Kong and political changes in the U.S. have impacted Singapore https://lnkd.in/e-zpnq5F

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Thailand’s most popular political party, Move Forward, is facing the familiar threat of dissolution by court order, but senior members say plans are already in place for a swift comeback if they are disbanded, refusing to let their reform movement die, as my Voice of America colleague, Vijitra Duangdee, reports here from Bangkok. #thailand #moveforward #voa https://lnkd.in/evNSgRKy

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On Friday, Japan's Cabinet approved a new economic stimulus package that will reinstate electricity and gas subsidies — measures that were supposed to be a short-term response to the pandemic and invasion of Ukraine. In order to get the necessary parliamentary support for it, the ruling coalition has also agreed to hold discussions on cutting the gasoline tax. These things are just the more visible instances of Japan's various fossil fuel subsidies — financial support that is measured in trillions of yen. But all this money does nothing to halt the reliance on the volatile fossil fuel imports that make Japan the world's fifth-largest national emitter of CO2. To do that, experts say the country needs a clear energy plan that leans strongly into renewables, as well as various other steps. My latest: https://lnkd.in/gnAA45mS #climatechange #fossilfuelsubsidies #renewables

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“Asia’s arms makers and naval shipbuilders are leading a global surge in defence stocks this year as investors bet that the region’s companies are primed to lead a rearmament boom . . . Shares in Hanwha Aerospace, South Korea’s largest defence group, have tripled this year to a market value of nearly Won18tn (close to $13bn), leaving them in dollar terms just behind Nvidia among the MSCI All-Country World’s biggest gainers.” https://on.ft.com/4fUDkM4 Hugues Lavandier Varun Marya Alexander Benard

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The Philippines has rejected and condemned this audacious act, but China’s audacity is nothing new. In the past few years and months, China has blatantly ignored the Philippines’ victory over it at the Permanent Court of Ar-bitration. Newspaper headlines have detailed one instance of aggressive behavior after another — a direct affront to Philippine sovereignty and to international law. The reprehensible acts partake of a maritime nature because they take place in waters that have been established as legitimately the Philippines’. But it is impossible to talk about the West Philippine Sea (WPS) from a purely geopolitical/maritime point of view. All these are also grave threats to the economic order. China’s acts show a blatant disregard for the Philippines’ right to fully harness and maximize the benefits from resources rightfully with-in its Exclusive Economic Zone, as affirmed by international law and the 2016 arbitral ruling. Our waters hold resources that support and enhance the lives of Filipinos. The WPS, rich in marine biodiversity, serves as a vital fishing ground that is the livelihood of countless Filipinos. It is also believed to contain substantial untapped reserves of oil and natural gas. This is key to achieving energy security and powering the economy in the medium and long term. Finally, the WPS is a critical maritime route, facilitating international trade and commerce. https://lnkd.in/gzZTxjqf

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