The Emerging Threats Group, Oxford University

Andro Mathewson, in his Emerging Threats Journal Article "The Use of Modified Commercial Drones in Ukraine: Adoption Capacity Theory and Adaptation Under Fire in Practice," examines how Ukrainian forces have adapted commercial drone technology for military applications. Utilizing Adoption Capacity Theory as an analytical lens, Mathewson highlights the rapid innovation and field adaptation of these technologies by both Ukraine and Russia in response to battlefield conditions, as well as the importance of the relatively low organizational and financial capital requirements to the adoption of modified commercial off the shelf UAVs.

In his article in the Emerging Threats Journal, Conrad Kunadu examines the limitations of deterrence by denial strategies, which aim to prevent adversarial actions by making them unlikely to succeed. He argues that such strategies may be less effective in the context of emerging and disruptive technology areas, particularly in cyberspace, where the offense often has advantages over the defense. Kunadu suggests that traditional deterrence models need to be reevaluated to address the unique challenges posed by cyber operations, AI, and biosecurity. https://lnkd.in/gzpt4cPh

AUKUS Forum – Oxford Our CEO, Michael Sharpe, was honored to join The Emerging Threats Group, Oxford University, where he shared firsthand insights from walking the factory floors across Australia, the United States, and the United Kingdom. As part of the AUKUS Strategic Technology Alliances roundtable, discussions focused on industry collaboration, innovation, and the critical role of advanced manufacturing in strengthening our collective security. Pictured here with Connor Clarke, who recently commenced as the #AUKUS Programme Lead—driving conversations on implementation, future opportunities, and strategic challenges. Connor is engaging with policymakers, academics, and industry leaders to navigate the evolving security landscape and ensure AUKUS delivers on its full potential. Read more: 🔗 https://lnkd.in/gcWuxuX4 Upcoming AUKUS Forum events include: ✅AUKUS to Avalon Airshow - Victoria ✅The first AUKUS Steel & Forging Summit - Pennsylvania ✅#Additive Manufacturing Summits - starting in Sydney and across the United States. ✅British Nuclear Dialogue - London ✅Insider Threat Management - Washington DC Get involved and contact our Global Partnerships Manager, Matthew Netherwood - [email protected]

The Oxford Emerging Threats Journal is open for submissions! We're looking for innovative national security and geopolitical analysis. Send pitches and submissions before April 4th. https://lnkd.in/ecifvc4Z

This was a great session this week - thoroughly enjoyed the challenging questions! Thanks to all those that attended.

Last year, in February The Emerging Threats Group, Oxford University hosted Ciaran Martin, Professor of Practice at the Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford, and former head of the UK’s National Cyber Security Centre, to discuss AUKUS Pillar 2. While Pillar 1, concerning cooperation in the development and construction of nuclear-powered submarines, has been widely debated, the ramifications of Pillar 2, which focuses on fostering collaboration in emerging technology areas, including cyber, AI, hypersonic missiles, and quantum technologies, has been seen as more ambiguous. Martin outlined the practical implications of AUKUS Pillar 2, highlighting opportunities for cooperation through AUKUS and the limitations and challenges facing trilateral tech partnerships. Thank you to Samuel Murison for leading this seminar. Stay tuned for more discussions, seminars, wargames, and conferences on AUKUS and the implications of emerging technologies for UK and allied security!

A shot from last week after the The Emerging Threats Group, Oxford University AUKUS, Strategic Technology Alliances Roundtable. Had a great time chairing the Space Workshop: Balancing Competition and Cooperation in the Space Industry. Some brilliant contributions on the future of Pillar 2 from accross the alliance, and accross domains and expertise. The message: pick a specific capability, drive through to delivery, and then take stock of lessons learned. Paper and meetings must become hardware for this partnership to remain effective and relevant. Thank you to Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford for hosting! P.S. For the Harry Potter Fans- Many Houses, One Hogwarts.

Uniting AUKUS at Oxford 🇦🇺🇬🇧🇺🇸 Make Submarines ✅ Michael Sharpe was in Oxford with the Hon. David Ridgway, Agent General for South Australia and Lord Walney, Vice Chair of the British All Party Parliamentary Group on AUKUS. It brings together MPs and Peers from across the political divide to better understand the opportunities, and challenges, that we will face in delivering the new shared submarine programme (SSN-AUKUS), and also the other tiers of work on AI, quantum computing, information sharing to name but a few. #Additive manufacturing is a key capability being developed and the AUKUS Forum is engaged with researchers from leading universities and key industry pioneers to accelerate the adoption of new technologies and materials for 3D printing across the alliance. In collaboration with BlueForge Alliance, Deloitte, IBM, Aon, Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman LLP, DekkoSecure, Great British Industry, Center for American Industrial Strength, AUKUS Visa, British Nuclear Dialogue, Keep Our Future Afloat

Reflecting on an AUKUS Monday this week. After an excellent session with the UK Government’s AUKUS Adviser Sir Stephen Lovegrove at the Royal United Services Institute, I was grateful to the The Emerging Threats Group, Oxford University for the invitation to participate in its latest AUKUS dialogue on Strategic Technology Alliances. It was a thoroughly thought-provoking and enjoyable programme, in which I was grateful to discuss - beyond the implications of challenges arising in recent weeks - the opportunities for harnessing emerging technologies in support of allied interoperability, including through international agreements. It was wonderful to hear in these turbulent times an inspirational address from Lord Walney on the importance of driving a better understand across the UK of the security and economic benefits of the AUKUS agreement. Beyond the excellent conversations, I stayed unexpectedly in a prison - it was one converted into a hotel, to be clear - and got to experience some of the amazing inspiration for Harry Potter.

Next Week, in our final seminar of Hillary Term 2025, The Emerging Threats Group, Oxford University will host Ryan Ramsey, COO of First Light Fusion for a discussion on the interplay between competition and scientific collaboration amidst the renaissance in nuclear fusion research and investment in the last several years. This session will examine how distinct national strategies, international partnerships, and financial and leadership pressures converge (and collide) in shaping fusion’s trajectory. It will explore the interplay between collective advancement, strategic rivalry, and the broader security implications of controlling this potentially game-changing technology using real-world case studies. Discussions will highlight how fusion’s success may hinge on balancing cross-border cooperation and competition, offering insight into the dynamics of tomorrow’s energy landscape.