Quantified Carbon

Meet Michał! We’re excited to welcome him to the team as a Junior Analyst, following his successful Master’s thesis with us! In his research, he explored alternative heat utilization strategies for thermal power plants. With a detailed engineering background and a holistic understanding of energy systems, Michał brings valuable expertise to our industrial decarbonization department. It’s great to have him on board! He is particularly eager to contribute to the decarbonization of the heating sector and apply his insights to analyses focused on his homeland, Poland. 

🚀 Launch of New Report: Swedish power systems robust for 300 TWh 🔍⚡ We are proud to present the fourth edition of our scenario analysis, conducted on behalf of Svenskt Näringsliv – a comprehensive study spanning over 1.5 years, with co-authors from universities across the Nordics and Poland. Quantified Carbon live by the statement made by the British statistician George Box: “All models are wrong, some are useful.” – a reminder that no model or set of input assumptions can fully predict the future, but the right approach can provide valuable insights. This study strives to make modeling truly useful, employing a structured and sophisticated scenario analysis to explore alternative pathways for Sweden’s power system. These pathways are quantitatively evaluated in terms of self-sufficiency, competitiveness, environmental and climate impact, and operational safety, offering a clearer picture of both opportunities and risks for the future. By comparing six different power system configurations and testing their performance across 33 weather years, this methodology provides a robust foundation for energy policy and power system planning. We hope that the report will contribute to increasing understanding of key considerations that need to be addressed when evaluating options for building a robust Swedish power system. By putting focus on abilities that are required by the future Swedish power system, our ambition has been to rather identify those options that are not attractive than concluding the “right technology mix”. We look forward to answer questions and engage in meaningful conversations about how to drive the transformation of the Swedish power system forward. A huge thank you to the entire team for a fantastic collaboration! 🙌 Read the full report here: https://lnkd.in/dKKybRU6 If you are a Swedish speaker you can listen to Anton Såmark-Roth and Carl Hellesen presentation here: https://lnkd.in/dw6t5EQt

Next week, the Repower Initiative is convening for another major summit! The Repower World Summit 2025 will take place in Katowice, Poland, hosted by the Silesian University of Technology. Over two days, we’ll explore strategies to repower—decarbonize coal-based energy systems—an urgent challenge given that coal repowering could eliminate one-third of global carbon emissions, protect trillions in investment, and ensure a just transition for the 8.4 million people working in the coal industry today. Founded by Quantified Carbon, the Repower Initiative is a nonprofit dedicated to accelerating this transition while safeguarding economies and communities. The summit will feature 8 expert panels: ✅ Presidents & senior leaders of Poland’s largest energy companies ✅ CEOs driving decarbonization technology ✅ Coal asset owners & major utilities ✅ Leading financial institutions More details and registration here: https://lnkd.in/dQeGRgHz Patryk Białas Rafał Kasprów Dorota Jeziorowska Ning Li Bożena Horbaczewska

Power system decarbonisation is often assessed by emission figures, but how much of that progress is real, and how much is just weather-driven fluctuation? A mild winter or a windy spell might look like major climate progress—but is it genuine progress or merely a temporary dip? That’s why, in our energy modeling, we use 33 historical weather years to ensure power systems perform reliably across a broad range of conditions. Looking into the future as countries progress in their decarbonisation efforts, a critical eye should be kept on claimed emissions reductions in the more and more weather dependent power systems. Power system modelling is set to aid in the understanding. Below is as an example a figure from our recent German Power System study for WePlanet Dach, comparing two key scenarios. Check out our blog post for the full story: https://lnkd.in/g68PxQrv

Sweden and Norway have introduced grid fees with a localisation component. At the TSO (Transmission System Operator) level, these fees include energy and capacity components. Generators and consumers pay higher fees if their location increases the need of transmission. The figure shows the loss factors per TSO substation, which are used to calculate the energy fee. Generators in northern regions pay a percentage (the loss factor) of the spot price, while those in the south receive reductions. Thus, incentivising localizing generation in the south, where there is an energy deficit, and encouraging demand in the energy surplus area of the north. A similar localisation component exists in the capacity fee.  In the last years, the spot price has been much higher in the southern bidding zones than in the northern bidding zone. Thus there are plenty of price incentives for generators to locate in the south and for demand to be concentrated in the north. However, it is often not possible for existing customers to do anything about their localisation. It could be argued that the signal would be both stronger and have a larger practical impact if only directed at those considering connecting new generators or demand, Denmark for example applies this approach through connection fees. Finland also considering introducing such a location component in the grid connection fee.  https://lnkd.in/d5srf4ig

As power systems worldwide transition toward renewables, ensuring energy security amid increasing intermittency is becoming a major challenge. Our latest study for WePlanet DACH compares two potential pathways for Germany’s 2045 energy mix: a “Nuclear” scenario, combining nuclear with renewables, and a “VRE100” scenario, relying solely on variable renewable energy (VRE) for clean power. Using investment and dispatch optimization based on 33 historical weather years, our findings highlight critical trade-offs—most notably, the significantly higher natural gas consumption in the VRE100 scenario (144 TWh vs. 45 TWh in the Nuclear scenario), emphasising the impact of electrification trends and coal phase-out on fuel dependency.    The study explores extreme natural gas consumption levels, revealing how reliance on wind and solar increases vulnerability to supply shortfalls. In the long term, the results emphasise the role of nuclear power as a proven solution to enhance energy security, mitigate geopolitical risks, and reduce dependence on fossil fuels. As intermittency grows, energy systems will require greater storage capacity and backup resources to manage peak loads. In the short term, with wind and solar shares set to rise in the European power system, can a lower average fuel consumption of dispatchable power supply still mean an increased dependence on storage and infrastructure as insurance against challenging weather conditions? Read more here: https://lnkd.in/dwU6rpbr

Last Friday, Carl Hellesen, Head of Technology of Quantified Carbon, joined a seminar organized by Fossilfritt Sverige on how to solve Sweden’s electricity needs by 2035. Key participants included Maja Lundbäck, State Secretary to the Minister of Energy and Enterprise Ebba Busch, Kajsa Ryttberg-Wallgren, Chief Growth Officer at Stegra, and Markus Wrake, CEO of Energiforsk, who shared insights on the government’s role in energy policy—establishing frameworks and removing barriers to achieve Sweden’s clean electricity target of 300 TWh by 2045.    Quantified Carbon is a key contributor to the NEPP (North European Energy Perspectives) program, led by Energiforsk AB, alongside Profu, EA, and Chalmers University of Technology. Together, these research groups are tasked with modeling pathways to meet Sweden’s future energy demands.    As part of this work, we analysed two scenarios for future electricity demand: one with high demand reaching 280 TWh/year by 2040, and one with delayed demand reaching 200 TWh/year by 2040. Both scenarios assume that all additional demand can be connected and that customers are willing to pay for electricity, regardless of price.  The analysis highlights the following key conclusions: 1. Onshore wind power dominates new electricity production due to cost and timing advantages, though complementary solutions are essential to ensure system reliability.   2. Nuclear power expansion by 2040 is expected to have minimal impact on cost-effective wind power investments by 2035, assuming a perfect market without uncertainties.  3. Electricity prices are likely to experience greater fluctuations both within and between future years, increasing the risk of imbalances between production investments and consumption.    Looking ahead, the project will focus on modelling challenging scenarios, such as low water reservoir levels, minimal wind production, and cold weather. It will also aim to propose market changes both capable of stimulating investments in production and consumptions whilst ensuring grid system stability.    For more details, check our website: https://lnkd.in/dPu8cdny 

Germany’s energy transition, the Energiewende, aims for climate neutrality by 2045 through renewable energy while phasing out nuclear and fossil fuels. However, challenges in energy security, affordability, and resilience have surfaced since the nuclear phase-out in 2023, sparking debates on the future role of nuclear power.     WePlanet DACH commissioned us at QuantifiedCarbon to envision Germany’s power system in 2045 examining two technology pathways —one with nuclear power and one excluding it.    The findings of our analysis are unequivocal. Including nuclear, even with rather conservative cost assumptions, into Germany’s energy policy offers significant advantages, such as lower costs, enhanced energy security, and more effective decarbonization. In contrast, excluding nuclear results in higher costs and complex challenges related to system integration and resource constraints, ultimately jeopardising climate goals.     To achieve these goals, four key policy recommendations are presented. Read more: https://lnkd.in/dgKBhjh6   

Breaking the Grid? Norway’s Interconnector Debate and Its Ripple Effects    There has been an extensive debate about recent high electricity prices in Europe, which culminated last week with Norway proposing to cut the cables connecting south Norway and Denmark. This in turn has resulted in back-and-forth discussions between the energy ministers of Norway and Sweden. The proposal, aiming at reducing the high electricity prices that Norway has been experiencing, has sparked significant controversy.    At Quantified Carbon we couldn’t resist digging into this problem. Using an hourly dispatch model of the European electricity market, we modelled electricity prices in 2025 for 32 different weather years, both with and without the interconnector, to analyse the potential impact of such a decision. The results provide some fascinating insights—and should be an interesting read for both Ebba Busch (Sweden’s Minister for Energy, Business, and Industry) and Norway’s Terje Aasland (Minister of Petroleum and Energy)!    Find out the results here - https://lnkd.in/d8t8E5PC

🌍💡 Exploring the future of hydrogen!    This week, Oscar Lagnelöv and Sebastian Svanström led a session on the Swedish Hydrogen Conference to dive deep into the evolving hydrogen landscape. The conference confirmed that our research and insights are perfectly aligned with what both academia and industry leaders are saying—an encouraging position right in the sweet spot between innovation and application. 🚀    Some key takeaways from the event: 🔹 Power market volatility can present opportunities for hydrogen production—a view supported by multiple sources.  🔹 Exciting developments are underway, with hydrogen being applied across transport, gas turbines, steel production, and fertilisers.  🔹 However, the slow pace of regulatory adaptation and gaps in current frameworks are slowing down implementation.    Beyond the insights, the event was a great chance to strengthen relationships with existing customers, meet potential clients, and expand our network in this dynamic sector.   Want to learn more? Email us at [email protected] to request the full presentation or discuss the future of hydrogen in detail!    Hydrogen is gaining momentum, and we’re thrilled to be part of the conversation shaping its future!    #HydrogenEconomy #CleanEnergy #Innovation #Networking