Ben Edgar

I'm sure a few of you are up to your armpits in REMA, the Review of Electricity Market Arrangements that DESNEZ launched on the 12th March for response by 7th May. That's some 46 days to respond on the biggest change to our industry since NETA in 2001. And luckily you only have to wade through a mere 294 pages of documentation. For those of you who aren't, this consultation has some proposed changes which have huge implications for the UK power market - and many of them are mad, bad and downright risky. Think I'm indulging in hyperbole? I'd urge you to get familiar with the provisions being considered because they WILL change your business model, whether you are a generator, a customer, a consultancy, a supplier, an investor - yes, in other words everybody. Unfortunately DESNEZ will congratulate themselves on their broad stakeholder engagement, never mind the fact that most actors barely have the resources to do any justice to the amount of work that needs to be done on this. So unless you want to see a meaningful forward market to disappear, PPAs to become a thing of the past, and you want to learn how to trade transmission rights, I urge you to respond. Good luck! #REMA #wholesaletrading #electricitymarkets #nationalgrid

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Dedicated Energy Hubs Needed to Transform Scotland into Leading Hydrogen Producer   The Net Zero Technology Centre (NZTC), has today [27 June 2024] launched its ‘Energy Hubs: Fill the Backbone’ report, providing recommendations that will help scale Scotland’s hydrogen production potential and establish itself as a leading exporter of green hydrogen through the development of large-scale energy hubs. 🔽 Find more info in comments below 🔽 #EnergyHubs #Scotland #HydrogenProduction #CleanEnergy #RenewableEnergy #GreenHydrogen #OilandGas #RenewableEnergy #GreenEnergy ⤵️ Click Follow on our page to keep up to date with energy news ⤵️

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I had a big question staring me in the face in my sixth decade. How would I spend discretionary time after retiring from the energy industry? A series of articles by Arthur Brooks provided something I could work with. “Be Bach!”  An old person is not likely to be an avant-garde headliner. Yet one can contribute! Bach taught music in his mature years.  Psychologists would say Bach leaned into his crystallized intelligence, “which is your wisdom, your ability to compile the information that's in your vast library to teach better, to explain better, to form teams better - in other words, not to answer somebody else's questions but to form the right questions.”  Crystallized intelligence increases in one’s 40s and 50s and even 60s, and it will stay high for the rest of your life.  Who knew? With encouragement from family and friends - and especially my wife Joyce! - I founded Energy Mentors. Our mission? “Catalyze a rising generation of energy professionals.” Our approach? Ask the right questions. Let the rising generation come up with the answers. How? We sponsor an annual student design competition, “Power the Community.” Students are challenged to reimagine the energy delivery behind a new community for 2000 families. How is it going? We had creative and workable answers from the four prize winners we announced on June 22! Our current challenge? Increase student participation. Can we have 50 teams submitting designs before April 15, 2025? Can we do it alone? No! Please help spread the opportunity! One last question: Is there merit for professors to adopt “Power the Community” in capstone projects or synergize with coursework as was done this last year by Bruce Race, PhD, FAIA, FAICP at the University of Houston?

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#UK power company Drax Group has set up a US subsidiary, Elimini, and plans to spend ~$12.5 billion to build five #carbon negative power plants in the US. The five plants will collectively generate 750MW of #electricity by burning #biomass while capturing their collective annual #carbonemissions of 7.5M tonnes. The process, known as #BECCS (bioenergy with carbon capture and storage), has the potential to annually generate $500M in #IRA tax breaks for Drax. While BECCS is not without its challenges and controversies, if successfully executed, it has the duel profit potential of selling power as well as #carboncredits. Learn more about Elimini and its plans here: https://elimini.com/ If you don't have the FT, read the Reuters article "UK’s Drax to invest up to $12.5 billion in US biomass power plants" here: https://lnkd.in/e4UWUPuY #sustainability #energytransition #CO2 #cleanenergy #decarbonization #decarbonisation #carboncapture #ccs #ccus #carbonremoval #unitedkingdom #bioenergy

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Today 4th November, the UK energy market opened with notable shifts across gas, power, and commodities. NBP day-ahead gas dropped to 97 pence per therm, reflecting bearish sentiment. Despite lower renewable output, anticipated warmer temperatures and consistent Norwegian supply contributed to the decline. Norwegian flows remained stable, with total exit nominations across Europe reaching 337 mcm/day. The UK system, however, opened short by 9 mcm/day, driven by increased gas-for-power demand. This demand spike comes as wind capacity generation is forecasted to remain low, and two nuclear reactors, providing 1.2 GW in total, are offline until November 27th and December 5th. In the power market, UK day-ahead baseload prices settled at £89.50 per MWh, while peak power prices eased to £93.90 per MWh. Spot prices rose slightly, but bearish sentiment along the curve is keeping prices contained, likely influenced by the downward trend in gas prices. Renewable output remains low, with forecasts suggesting limited wind power generation, which may increase reliance on gas-fired power in the days ahead. On the oil front, Brent M+1 held steady at $73.10 per barrel. Coal prices, however, softened to $121.96 per tonne for API2 Cal Y+1 contracts. The outlook remains cautious, with oil supply steady but winter demand projections and broader economic indicators hinting at potential price shifts. Carbon trading showed minor movement. EU Emissions Allowances (EUA) Dec-24 settled at €63.87 per tonne, a slight dip, while the UK ETS Dec-24 remained unchanged at £37.89 per tonne. These levels come amid steady demand as Europe approaches peak heating season, with markets carefully watching for policy shifts and temperature trends that may impact carbon trading volumes. On the currency side, the GBP/EUR rate stands at 1.1905, while GBP/USD shifted slightly to 1.2926. Currency fluctuations may influence imported energy costs, particularly as the pound remains under pressure against the dollar. Looking ahead, demand is set to increase seasonally, and the UK will receive a boost in gas supplies from LNG imports. Four LNG cargoes are scheduled to arrive this week, starting with today’s delivery at Milford Haven from Trinidad and Tobago. No unplanned outages were reported in the UK gas network, according to Gassco, ensuring supply continuity for now.

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An opinion; British Gas vs. Octopus Energy: Navigating the Shifting Tides of the Energy Market The UK energy market is undergoing a profound transformation, mirroring the disruptions seen in other industries like automotive. This shift is characterized by the contrasting approaches of established players like British Gas and disruptive newcomers like Octopus Energy. Risk Aversion vs. Reward Seeking: A Tale of Two Strategies * British Gas: The Legacy Giant * Focus on Stability: With a long history and established customer base, British Gas prioritizes risk mitigation and maintaining its existing market share. * Challenges: This risk-averse approach can hinder innovation and responsiveness to evolving customer demands. The focus on shareholder value and pension obligations might inadvertently overshadow the importance of customer satisfaction and loyalty. * Struggling to Adapt: While adapting by offering more digital services and renewable energy options, British Gas's legacy infrastructure and brand image can be perceived as less agile and innovative compared to newer entrants. * Octopus Energy: The Agile Disruptor * Embracing Innovation: Octopus Energy thrives on a growth mindset and a willingness to take calculated risks. They prioritize technological advancements, flexible tariffs, and 100% renewable energy offerings. * Customer-Centric Approach: This focus on innovation, transparency, and sustainability resonates strongly with a new generation of consumers, driving their rapid expansion and market share gains. * Building Trust and Loyalty: By prioritizing customer needs and offering competitive pricing, Octopus Energy has built a loyal following among those who value flexibility and transparency. The Self-Fulfilling Prophecy The contrasting approaches of these companies can create a self-fulfilling prophecy: * British Gas's risk aversion may lead to stagnation and a gradual loss of market share as they struggle to keep pace with the evolving demands of a new generation of customers. * Octopus Energy's proactive and customer-focused approach fuels their growth and attracts a loyal customer base, further reinforcing their position in the market. The Need for Balance While risk-taking is crucial for innovation and growth, it's important to strike a balance. Companies must carefully assess risks and rewards to ensure their strategies are sustainable and aligned with their long-term goals. Lessons for the Energy Market and Beyond The success of Octopus Energy underscores the importance of adapting to changing customer expectations and embracing innovation. Even established companies need to continuously evolve to stay relevant in today's dynamic market. The energy sector, like many others, is undergoing a transformation. Companies that prioritize customer-centricity, transparency, sustainability, and technological advancement are poised to lead the way in this new era. #EnergyMarket #DisruptiveInnovation

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Today 16th October’s UK energy landscape reflects shifting dynamics across gas, power, and renewables, with mild temperatures and steady LNG inflows shaping the market. Gas prices on the NBP day-ahead market settled at 96.00 p/therm, slightly lower than the previous session, as the system opened this morning undersupplied by 22 mcm/day. While piped flows from Norway remained flat, UKCS production decreased to 102 mcm/day. LNG send-out from South Hook and Isle of Grain provided 14 mcm/day, with additional LNG cargoes expected in the coming weeks to support the UK’s supply. Power prices followed suit, with the day-ahead baseload settling at £67.88/MWh, a sharp decline from yesterday’s £87.12/MWh, reflecting higher wind generation and milder demand expectations. However, as wind forecasts predict output dropping below seasonal norms in the coming days, gas demand for power generation could increase, potentially influencing prices upward. On the supply side, nuclear availability remained steady despite several ongoing outages, including units at Heysham and Torness. Weather forecasts suggest today will be the warmest of the month so far, with temperatures expected to stay above seasonal norms until the end of October. This trend is contributing to softer demand for heating, easing pressure on both gas and electricity markets. Meanwhile, carbon prices also eased slightly, with EUA Dec 24 certificates trading at €65.09/tonne, and the UK ETS market at £39.04/tonne, reflecting reduced short-term emissions intensity. Currency movements saw GBP/EUR at 1.1997, while GBP/USD edged up to 1.3072. With three LNG cargoes set to arrive soon and strong Norwegian flows to the continent, market fundamentals appear stable, though fluctuations in wind generation may drive volatility in power prices in the days ahead.

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Today’s UK energy market opened with a balanced outlook in the gas sector, yet influences from lower wind output and ongoing nuclear outages are making waves across the power market. As of October 29th, UK gas prices at the National Balancing Point (NBP) settled at 106.70 p/therm, holding steady amid stable domestic production and consistent Norwegian flows. Production from the Norwegian Continental Shelf is expected to rise over the next few days as the final stages of maintenance wrap up, ensuring that gas supplies remain robust despite lower-than-average wind speeds forecasted for the coming weeks. Power prices for the Day-Ahead UK base shot up to £107.89/MWh, driven in part by a reduction in wind generation and maintenance outages impacting nuclear capacity and interconnectors. These outages have placed extra reliance on gas-fired power generation to meet demand. Notably, Torness 1 is scheduled for a return on November 3rd, while additional nuclear units offline for planned and unplanned maintenance are expected back in late November and early December, which should alleviate some pressure on power generation. Brent crude oil prices continue to reflect the subdued risk outlook in the Middle East, settling today at $71.42/bbl. This retreat, down from last week, is partially due to moderated geopolitical tensions and a lack of targeted energy infrastructure strikes. Coal prices have also softened, with ARA CIF for Calendar Year 2025 now at $124.46/tonne, tracking lower alongside a broad dip in oil. Carbon markets remain elevated with EUA Dec 2024 prices at €66.40/tonne. In the currency market, the pound showed minimal movement against both the euro and the dollar, standing at 1.2006 GBP/EUR and 1.2971 GBP/USD. As we move toward winter, expect gas and power prices to remain sensitive to weather forecasts, especially with anticipated colder temperatures and low wind patterns that could drive demand for gas-fired generation. With further LNG cargoes scheduled for arrival, including three en route to the UK and additional volumes bound for Northwest Europe, supply security remains strong. However, power market participants will be watching closely as the return of key nuclear units could impact pricing dynamics and reduce gas-burn requirements for electricity. Today’s market activity highlights the critical role of inter-fuel dynamics as the UK navigates seasonal demand pressures and renewable variability, with global events continuing to subtly steer sentiment. Stay tuned for further updates as the week unfolds.

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The #uranium market has been navigating through a dynamic year marked by evolving market signals and global uncertainty. Sprott’s latest report, "Uranium Markets Impacted by Market Signals and Uncertainty," offers critical takeaways on the state of the market and what lies ahead: 📈 Uranium Market Steadies ⚡ Nuclear Energy Gains Global Support 🇺🇸 U.S. Elections & Nuclear Policy Impacts 🛢️ Energy Strategy: Domestic vs. International Focus 🚨 Russian Ban Challenges Supply Chain

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It was announced yesterday that Constellation is very close to closing a deal to purchase Calpine. This is potentially a very big deal across the energy spectrum, and I can’t help but think of the impacts on companies like Nationwide Energy Partners.   From what I’m reading the growth in PE investments in energy would pay off greatly for Calpine’s private equity investors.   This brings greater diversity to Constellation's fleet and adds some unique behind the meter solutions from Calpine. As a procurement and energy services advisor to multi-family property owners in the US, Nationwide Energy Partners helps our clients with advanced behind the meter energy solutions including private grids. I wonder if Constellation’s move will bring greater options in products combining these two powerhouses (pun intended). And if that will give NEP more options for providing an attractive grid supportive resource to our clients.   As a leader in multi-family energy advisory solutions, we will be watching to see if what they do will help us better serve our clients. Will this newly combined super duo unlock new solutions for our customers?   While this Calpine deal is a big step for Constellation, this is far from the last one I expect we will see for investors and the energy industry in 2025. It will be very interesting to watch where we go from here.  

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Interesting thinking about the electricity market and how market forces could support an evolution of the way we do business there. "For instance, similar to markets that trade different grades of crude oil (WTI and Brent), perhaps we can “grade” energy based on its characteristics, so that energy that includes inertia and VARs is valued higher than energy that doesn’t include these other characteristics. A MWh of energy from a synchronous generator has a higher operational reliability value than a MWh of IBR energy, so how can we signal this economically?"

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Today, the UK energy market showed mixed activity amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. Front-month UK Power rose by 2.27%, closing at £81.46, while front-month NBP Gas climbed 1.28% to 95.40p. Carbon markets were stable, with Dec24 EUA's flat at €71.87, and UKA's up 4.61% at £40.60. Brent crude also saw gains, finishing at $81.15, up 1.74%. Stay informed and prepare for potential market shifts as geopolitical factors continue to influence energy prices. #EnergyMarket #UKPower #NaturalGas #CarbonTrading #BrentCrude

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If you’ve been reading our recent articles, you know Transparent Energy has been counseling customers and prospects to “buy now” to take advantage of attractive electricity and natural gas prices. In my latest piece, I explore the “whys” behind “buy now” and highlight the benefits companies are gaining by acting on this advice.

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A quick Friday summary from Zeigo's Energy Markets Team... UK Power prices have levelled off over the week. Calendar 2025 UK power is around £88/MWh (+£0/MWh to last week) but ‘26 and ’27 are around £77/MWh (+£0/MWh to last week). UK CPPA prices are around £70/MWh to £85/MWh (CPI indexed) with good project availability meaning there are still opportunities for corporates to go to market for a CPPA. The European energy markets remain flat as well, and front-year German power contract remain flat, trading around €97.5/MWh. CPPA prices for larger volumes in Germany are around €65/MWh to €85/MWh. UK CPPA activity continues with PPAs announced in the market by Tesco and University of Manchester amongst others. Some details are emerging about possible energy policies from Labour and the Conservatives for the election – they are a trifle uninspiring and include... On Oil & Gas there will be a Windfall Tax (until 2029 Cons, possibly 2030 Lab) with Labour upping it to 38%. Whilst Labour is “supportive” of Nuclear they have no set targets whereas the Conservatives are aiming for 24GW by 2050. Both parties will target more Offshore wind, 50GW by 2030 by the conservatives and 5GW more from Labour. The conservatives are targeting 20GW more Solar than Labour (Cons 70GW by 2035), but Labour have an onshore wind target of 35GW (Cons have nothing set) giving a higher target for Labour by 2030 overall. 

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Since launching the ERCOT BESS Index, the experience for Modo Energy users from Great Britain and Texas hasn't been great unless you were equally invested in both regions. Today we've taken some steps to improve things. Now logged in users will see Data & Charts and Research that's relevant to the region they're interested in. On top of that we've: - unlocked Plotter to show full granularity of data, even up to 1 year of 30-minute data - released our ERCOT Battery Benchmark, filling in the 60-day gap for the Index - added loads more ERCOT data to our data library for anyone to download for free Check it out... https://lnkd.in/gi6QZAWK

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End of Day UK #Energy Market Update – 05/09/2024 The UK energy markets saw a notable rebound today, ending a three-day losing streak across Power and Gas prices. Front-month UK Power closed at £74.25/MWh, up by 1.71%, while the front-month NBP Gas contract saw an increase of 1.79%, closing at 87.52p/therm. This uptick comes after a period of downward pressure, likely driven by the recent cooler weather forecasts and improved wind generation across Europe. Gas prices, which had been in decline, regained momentum following Russian President Vladimir Putin's comments, indicating that Russia remains willing to supply gas to Europe through Gazprom. However, with Europe's firm stance on reducing dependency on Russian gas, concerns are mounting over potential supply constraints post-New Year, as the transit agreement via Ukraine is set to expire. Further out on the curve, Q1 2025 Power prices increased by 1.95%, closing at £82.36/MWh, while Gas contracts for the same period rose by 2.04%, finishing at 94.67p/therm. Market sentiment remains cautious, with traders pricing in possible supply disruptions and colder-than-expected weather forecasts for early 2025. In the carbon markets, Dec24 EUAs slipped by 0.66%, closing at €66.56/tonne, reflecting a softening in demand expectations. In contrast, UKAs inched up by 0.57%, finishing at £42.01/tonne as the UK government continues to align its carbon policies with broader European targets. On the global commodities front, Brent crude surged by 1.68%, settling at $73.92/barrel, amid tightening supply expectations as OPEC+ maintains its output cuts. This rise in oil prices also provided some bullish sentiment to the broader energy complex. With geopolitical tensions still a key driver of volatility, and Europe on the cusp of transitioning away from Russian gas supplies, it remains essential for market participants to stay agile in navigating the evolving landscape. Our team at Catalyst Commercial Services Ltd is here to provide insights and support as you navigate the evolving energy landscape. #EnergyMarket #UKEnergy #CarbonTrading #NaturalGas #MarketUpdate #EnergyInsights

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Partner's News The Energy Hubs – Fill the Backbone report by Hydrogen Scotland member Net Zero Technology Centre highlights the emerging opportunity to export green hydrogen from Scotland into the expanding hydrogen market in Europe. Economic modelling indicates that a 10 GW scale Energy Hub in Scotland producing green hydrogen from floating offshore wind could produce hydrogen for £3.90/kg. To capitalise on this opportunity, Scotland will need to develop strategic Energy Hubs in time to meet this growing demand. https://lnkd.in/gPJgp5SC

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December 20th, 2024: What’s Shaping the UK Energy Market Today? This morning, the UK energy market opens with an undersupplied gas system by 9 mcm/day, highlighting persistent tightness amid steady seasonal demand. Natural gas prices surged yesterday following geopolitical concerns, with Russia reaffirming its intent not to extend the transit agreement with Ukraine. This development puts further strain on Europe’s supply chains as storage withdrawals and LNG imports take center stage. NBP Day-Ahead gas prices responded by climbing to 106.40 p/therm, while UK Day-Ahead baseload power prices saw a significant jump to £74.83/MWh. Norwegian flows remain a crucial pillar, delivering 81 mcm/day to UK terminals, though slightly lower than the previous day due to minor supply shifts. LNG send-outs edged down, with two cargoes scheduled to arrive at South Hook today. The country’s nuclear generation stands at 4.9 GW and is expected to grow by the month’s end as maintenance concludes on key facilities. In the power market, rising gas prices drove a curve-wide rally, compounded by falling wind output expected early next week. Wind speeds are projected to drop below seasonal averages, leaving gas-fired plants to shoulder a larger share of the generation mix. Oil markets remain subdued, with Brent crude trading at $72.88/bbl this morning. Weak demand signals from China and a stronger US dollar have capped prices. Meanwhile, coal continues its steady upward trend, with API2 CAL Y+1 trading at $108.80/tonne, reflecting tighter global supplies. Currency movements show the pound marginally strengthening to 1.2129 against the euro but slipping against the dollar at 1.2499, reflecting broader macroeconomic factors. As the week closes, all eyes remain on Europe’s energy resilience amid colder weather forecasts and tighter supplies. Stay tuned for further updates as the market continues to evolve.

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How does saturation actually impact prices in ERCOT's ancillary service markets? Which ancillary services are most affected by the increasing deployment of storage? How do batteries fare against the competition? For all this (and more) check out our latest from Brandt Vermillion below. Link to the full article in the comments below.

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