Jan-Willem Bode

UK Carbon Regulator is essential for the functioning of a net zero economy - Energy Systems Catapult (ESC) released its Operationalising a Carbon Regulator report, which aims to guide the development of a robust regulatory framework for carbon accounting in the UK. ESC states that a Carbon Regulator would be “crucial” to the standardisation of carbon accounting practices, emphasising that the implementation of a Carbon Regulator is essential for the functioning of a net zero economy by: reducing investment risks; building investor, business, and consumer confidence; and levelling the playing field for innovators. The report outlines that a UK Carbon Regulator could utilise its potential position as a first mover to promote the credibility of UK low carbon industry, while demonstrating the value of nationally coordinated carbon accounting regulations. In delivering this, ESC notes that a Carbon Regulator would require a mandate to enable continuous international engagement. https://lnkd.in/eEXm4sV9

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This is true, although it is aftertiming of course - however, as usual, there's no context given in terms of the absolutely gigantic investment that has gone into renewables thus far, yielding poor returns. Let alone the fact that we currently turn the world's biggest blind eye to how lithium is sourced worldwide. However - we don't need more problems, we need solutions - and I was heartened to see the Resolution Foundation acknowledging that nuclear is part of a 2050 energy mix in a big way - however, with our current pace of building nuclear power capacity in the UK - 20+ years per station - hadn't we better get on with it? Surprisingly for economists there was little discussion of diseconomies of scale, or the folly of throwing more money at any problem to try and make it go away. There are more nuances than this......and R&D money in the right tech (small modular nuclear, geothermal) would be MUCH better spent than just quadrupling the renewables spend on intermittent power-generating tech. The headline is right, but I'm not sure what anyone expects us to do about it..... https://lnkd.in/eCeRBNgT

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Firms urged to continue #carbon #reporting in the wake of Government's regulatory rule change - In March, the UK government published suggested changes to company size limits that will impact 131,000 companies nationwide by changing auditing thresholds and other reporting requirements, including carbon reporting obligations. These changes could see 5,000 large companies reclassified as medium-sized, 13,000 medium-sized companies reclassified as small and 113,000 small companies reclassified as micro-entities. While the reforms aim to reduce the non-financial reporting obligations for businesses, Duncan & Toplis is warning that companies could be at substantial risk if they don’t maintain existing obligations around sustainability. Stuart Brown, Director and Head of Technical and Compliance at Duncan & Toplis said: “At first glance, businesses may think that the government’s changes to company size are an easy win that would simplify auditing and annual reporting – but there’s more to it than initially meets the eye. “The proposed reclassification would mean that thousands of currently ‘large’ companies can take advantage of eased requirements to cut their admin spend, but it also means that thousands of businesses will no longer be required to report their carbon emissions to the government – as this only applies to large companies. This could prove especially problematic for companies that are effectively downsized by the move, potentially extending as far as limiting their access to loans if they cease their carbon reporting.” The move has been projected to save £150 million per year for UK companies and while, on the surface, this will reduce the regulatory burden on thousands of companies, there may well be unintended consequences. The company highlights that the potential fallout from the reduced regulatory need to report carbon emissions could mean that they no longer appear committed to environmental sustainability – something that lenders, customers, suppliers and employees are increasingly invested in. A recent study by the Journal of Banking & Finance found that banks in 30 countries globally are more likely to offer lower loan rates to companies that show clear environment and sustainability concerns – increasing their rates to companies that fail to do so. There are also concerns about the impact this may have on recruitment and retention. https://lnkd.in/eNRFpdQ9

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As of October 1, 2024, the UK energy market has entered a critical period as colder weather and tighter supply conditions push natural gas prices higher. The NBP Day-Ahead settled at 92.35 p/therm today, driven by falling temperatures across the UK and Europe, which are expected to remain below the five-year average for the rest of the week. With Norwegian gas exports holding steady and UKCS terminal receipts down, gas-for-power demand has surged in response to a forecasted decline in wind speeds throughout the week. Meanwhile, UK LNG send-outs have increased to 29 mcm/day, with the next LNG cargo from Qatar anticipated later this week to shore up supplies. On the forward curve, NBP front-month prices climbed modestly, with November 2024 contracts up by 0.96 p/therm to 97.36 p/therm, while December 2024 saw a rise of 0.77 p/therm to 99.36 p/therm. Curve prices continue to reflect market concerns around reduced LNG imports and the potential for increased demand as the winter period approaches, setting the stage for continued volatility. In the power market, UK Day-Ahead baseload prices fell to £71.78/MWh, a drop of £5.02 from the previous session, while peakload power rose to £88.09/MWh. The tightening of the power system, driven by reduced wind generation and increasing reliance on gas for power, suggests further upward pressure on power prices as the week progresses. Forward baseload contracts, particularly January 2025, have seen slight increases, with the contract settling at £90.15/MWh, up by £0.75. As renewable output declines and colder weather takes hold, higher demand for gas-fired power generation is likely to fuel further price hikes. European gas storage levels remain robust, standing at 94.28% as reported by AGSI, offering some cushion for the winter months. However, risks tied to LNG supply reductions and planned outages at key Norwegian gas facilities could exacerbate market tightness. These developments highlight the importance of closely monitoring supply flows as winter approaches. In the global commodities market, Brent crude futures for November 2024 eased slightly by $0.21, settling at $71.77/bbl. Market sentiment remains cautious amid global economic uncertainties, contributing to softening oil prices. On the carbon market, EUA December 2024 prices dropped by €0.77 to settle at €65.56/tonne, while UK ETS contracts also saw a slight decline, closing at £36.45/tonne. These shifts come against the backdrop of ongoing discussions on the future of emissions reductions and energy transition strategies across Europe, which could have further implications for carbon pricing in the coming months. As we move further into October, the market will be focused on how sustained cooler temperatures and reduced wind generation will impact both gas and power prices. LNG cargo arrivals and any potential disruptions to Norwegian gas flows will also be key factors shaping market dynamics in the days ahead.

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ENERGY STORAGE 🔋 A good piece in the Financial Times this morning regarding the need and important role Battery Storage is in our power and electricity eco system. Having spent the last number of years funding and developing a Battery storage business alongside our partners, there is so much opportunity in this space, and the resource is badly needed. The good news being there is finally now strong appetite from the investor and debt markets, however in N Ireland, like most other things across society, we remain the only region without a government backed subsidy scheme in the UK, and it's a challenging business model to get going for a whole ream of reasons, a lack of support merely adds to this. Some argue against subsidy schemes, however the CAPEEX and risk associated with these projects are all developer led, and this needs addressed as a matter of urgency. Most of us in the industry are aware of the capacity restrictions within our electricity network, which similar to the challenges facing our water and sewage infrastructure, needs a huge amount of investment. My own experience with planning was a much more pleasant experience, however beurocracy and delays need to be minimised if we want things to improve and get more projects into development, and out of the ground. FUNDING Battery storage is not for the faint hearted as our Irish Banking system are not interested. I reckon come 2040 some BD managers in the local banks may look at this type of opportunity 😭 Predominantly and initially this is an EQUITY play, certainly at the initial stages, with construction finance a challenge, however that is made easier if you can secure the golden ticket of a 10 year contract with the regulator. Most local developers operate and provide services into the shorter term DS3 markets, but with 12/ 18 month security of income, that's doesn't lend itself to the funding people you need on board. There is much to do in this sector locally, and the opportunity is real, but it would be hugely helpful if local government finally launch their new subsidy scheme, which by all accounts is coming (allegedly). In the FT piece you can see that across the world governments are 1.acknowledging the need for this resource 2. developing policy to enable and encourage development. #Battery #Storage #Development https://lnkd.in/ezWj26Ab

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If we are headed for exceeding 1.5 degrees of global warming , with 2.7 degrees the current trend target, and the actions of the COP's not reducing overall emissions , then the importance of the UK's National Adaptation Programme to Climate Change (NAP3) becomes even more important. Yet the review of the current programme by the Climate Change Committee in March this year , said that it a) falls short of what we need b) the current approach is not working c) an urgent review of NAP 3 is needed now Its worth a read .. we do need to prepare ourselves better - and sooner .. https://lnkd.in/eTB9krCE

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📈 UK has just pledged £22bn to develop carbon capture clusters 📈 It’s great to see strong government support for carbon capture and storage clusters in the UK. This level of investment is crucial to meeting net zero targets and scaling the carbon markets, so that supply can meet the rising demand for carbon credits. The development of CCS clusters is especially exciting— another signal that carbon removal projects will be essential infrastructure for industrial regions in the future. I’m going to be watching closely how the funds are deployed. My hope is they prioritise project developers so they can build the robust foundations these clusters need. #CarbonMarkets #Sustainability #CCS #ClimateAction #NetZero https://lnkd.in/dKSjh67X]

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Great post from Maria O'Loan here, also the fact that many of the older plants are running well below stated capacity does not equal spare capacity, it shows they’re struggling with increased CV of input material and/or they’re ready to be shut down. Whilst we still export millions of tonnes of material, and continue to landfill millions more then we’re nowhere near capacity.

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The UK carbon market is braced for change in the event of a Labour victory in the July 4 general election, with speculation rife concerning the country's decarbonization strategy. https://lnkd.in/eJ3GBjYW #OCTT #UK #Elections2024 #Carbonmarkets #Emissions #UKETS #EUETS

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Supporting manufacturers with their investment management planning plays a central role, in securing IETF funding with Net Zero Audit Reporting. Minister for Industry Sarah Jones emphasized the importance of supporting businesses of all sizes in reducing their emissions as a key part of the Plan for Change to achieve Net-Zero while fostering economic growth. These companies exemplify the pinnacle of business innovation, utilising new technologies to enhance our processes, become more sustainable, and continue producing the beloved British products – from baked beans to beer. #smartbusiness #carbonreduction #greentechnology #investment

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The UK ETS Authority has opened consultation on the expansion of the UK Emissions Trading Scheme (#UKETS) to energy from waste (#EfW) and waste incineration. Consultation closes on 18th July 2024. The consultation provides more details about how waste incineration and EfW will be included in the scheme from 2026 - for the Monitoring, Reporting and Verification (MRV) only period - with full surrender obligations applied from 2028. In the 2-year transitional phasing period (2026-2028) emissions will only be monitored, reported, and verified and there will be no obligation to purchase and surrender UK ETS allowances until 2028. This follows the UK Government’s commitment in the Net Zero Strategy to explore expanding the UK ETS to the two-thirds of uncovered emissions. It is hoped that expanding the scheme to new sectors and technologies will increase the scheme coverage, capture more emissions, and lead to positive decarbonisation outcomes for the sector. https://lnkd.in/ejC4f7D5 #Mayer #Consultancy #WasteIncineration

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Pleased to share our thoughts today with The Herald Scotland on how to accelerate household decarbonisation. At GreenFox Energy we passionately believe that a combination of solar panels and battery storage is the most cost-effective and fastest way to decarbonise the home and reduce costs for homeowners. Read the full article here - https://lnkd.in/eszV8c5h #decarbonisation #solar

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Daily Energy Market Update - September 2nd, 2024 Today’s UK energy market saw significant movements, particularly in both gas and power prices. The NBP Gas Day-Ahead price experienced a notable increase of 2.65%, reaching 94.79 p/th. This upward trend extended to key contracts such as October 2024, which rose by 2.07% to 96.15 p/th. These price movements reflect the current market dynamics and underlying factors influencing supply and demand. In the power market, UK Base Day-Ahead power prices surged dramatically, with a sharp increase of 42.56%, bringing the price to £91.97/MWh. Even more striking was the rise in peak power prices, which climbed by 56.12% to £93.50/MWh. These significant jumps in power prices can be attributed to several critical factors impacting the market this week. One of the primary drivers is the forecasted shortfall in wind power generation. This week, wind output is expected to fall over 20% below seasonal norms. As wind plays a crucial role in the UK's energy mix, this reduction in generation capacity is putting upward pressure on prompt energy prices, as the market anticipates a tighter supply-demand balance. Adding to the bullish sentiment in the gas market is the ongoing industrial maintenance in Norway, which is set to have a considerable impact on gas flows. With a reduction of 40 million cubic meters per day in Norwegian gas flows, the market is reacting with higher prices as supply tightens. Despite these factors, temperatures in Britain for the week are expected to align with seasonal norms. While this will likely have a limited impact on gas demand, the market is more focused on the supply-side constraints and the reduced wind generation that are driving prices higher. Looking at the broader energy complex, we see TTF Gas Day-Ahead prices inching up by 0.89% to €39.15/MWh, while the Front Month price rose by 2.43% to €39.82/MWh. On the global front, Brent Crude prices declined by 2.46%, now trading at $76.93 per barrel. Meanwhile, in the carbon markets, both UK and EU carbon prices saw minor declines, with UK carbon closing at £43.31 per tonne, down 2.61%. In summary, today’s energy market activity is shaped by a combination of reduced wind generation, significant Norwegian gas maintenance, and stable temperature forecasts. These factors are collectively driving the sharp increases we’ve seen in UK power and gas prices. As we move further into the week, it will be crucial to monitor how these elements continue to influence the market. Stay tuned for more updates, and as always, feel free to reach out with any questions or for deeper insights into these trends.

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UK Energy Prices Pump as Supply Risks Loom: Gas, Power, and Renewables Face Winter Challenges - 30.09.24. Today’s UK energy market opened with modest gains in both gas and power prices. The NBP Day-Ahead gas price settled at 91.50 p/therm, reflecting a 1.70 p/therm increase from the previous session. This price movement is driven by concerns over supply constraints, with Norwegian production still facing challenges, particularly at Nybro and Kristin facilities. These issues, coupled with a lack of LNG regasification nominations, have tightened the UK system, which opened 12 mcm/day short this morning. Flows from Norway through Langeled are lower, and Vesterled is currently not exporting gas. The overall gas flow was measured at 290.5 mcm/day, the highest recorded exit nominations in over a month, yet the market remains wary as the risk of further supply disruptions continues, especially with winter approaching. In terms of storage, no withdrawals from medium-range storage (MRS) sites were observed, while Rough continues with steady injections. Warmer temperatures for early October are forecast, with a potential peak on October 6th, pushing temperatures nearly two degrees above seasonal norms. Windspeeds are predicted to stay above average early this week, offering a boost to renewable generation. However, a dip in wind generation is expected between October 2nd and 5th. The UK nuclear output remains below full capacity, and further reductions are expected, with output dropping to 4.0 GW by the weekend. Power prices saw similar upward momentum, with the Day-Ahead Base price settling at £76.80/MWh, a significant increase compared to Friday. Day-Ahead Peak prices were even more pronounced, rising to £86.01/MWh. Spot contracts saw the largest gains, driven by the weather forecast and ongoing concerns over gas supply. Looking ahead, power prices for Q125 continue to rise, with the market pricing in potential further supply squeezes as winter progresses. In the wider energy market, Brent crude oil for November delivery settled at $71.98 per barrel, ticking up by $0.38. Coal prices for delivery in 2025 also showed some movement, rising by $2.77 to $123.77/tonne, as global markets continue to balance supply and demand. As we head into October, market participants are preparing for the onset of colder weather and the increased demand that will follow. Supply risks from Norwegian fields and global LNG flows are being carefully monitored, while renewable generation, particularly wind, will play a critical role in offsetting these supply concerns. With temperatures expected to dip below average after October 8th, the balance of supply and demand in the UK energy market will likely tighten further. Traders and stakeholders will continue to watch geopolitical developments, weather forecasts, and the ongoing challenges in gas and power supply as we move towards the end of the year.

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Would be good to start the Labour government rule without making a catastrophic mistake. That would be to back the fossil industry's favourite solution for supposedly tackling climate change, 'carbon capture and storage', an unproven technology that gets to reuse most of the fossil fuel infrastructure. Doing this is doubling down on the hapless last Tory govt's disastrous cosy relationship with the fossil fuel industry. The inability to tell the good ideas from the duds is what we associate with mismanagement from the prior govt, but will Labour be any more discerning or do they also simply lack the scientific and engineering training to do so? #climatechange #innovation

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💰 The owner of Scottish Power - Spanish energy giant Iberdrola - have just announced plans to double its investment in the UK over the next four years from £12bn to £24bn. 💰 Keith Anderson, chief executive of Scottish Power, has said that most of the cash will be used to expand the UK's electricity grid in order to connect more homes and businesses. He said the main thing the company had asked for the government to do was to speed up the planning process in order to complete projects faster. Other funds will go to renewable energy projects including £4bn for the delivery of the 960MW East Anglia 2 wind farm off the east coast of England. This is a huge a vote of confidence in the recent changes to the UK’s (renewable) energy policies and is a big boost on the path towards green energy security and net zero in the UK. #offshorewind #iberdrola #ukgovernment #ukenergy #ukrenewables #oxborecruitment https://lnkd.in/eMs_3M8A

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