Dr. Lydia Kostopoulos (PhD)

UNRWA is redundant, UN Watch's Dan Smith suggests in my interview with him for Strategic Wisdom with Andrew Jose. How then should the agency be abolished and replaced? Smith answers: 👉 Listen to the full episode now: https://lnkd.in/eKPTFP6n #UNRWA #Gaza #Palestinians #UnitedNations #Podcast

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My piece for Gulf States Institute exploring why there is such indifference to today's presidential election and its outcome across the Gulf. In short: Anger and disillusionment over the Gaza war and rising confidence in their own national direction means Gulf publics are not as invested in U.S. politics. https://lnkd.in/eeS-rfb3

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Delighted to be quoted by Breaking Defense report on “#Turkey’s first mostly indigenous comms #satellite, could appeal to #Gulf amid space push” along with sitki egeli, Ryan Bohl, and Theodore Karasik Report by Agnes Helou —— Ali Bakir, assistant professor at Qatar University and nonresident senior fellow at Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, said the launch was a “significant milestone for Turkey as it places the country on another prestigious list” after Ankara joined the ranks of unmanned aircraft and fighter jet makers. “Turkey is now one of only 10 countries capable of producing their own communication satellite,” Bakir told Breaking Defense. “This step is critical to Turkey’s defense-related space sector, as it demonstrates the country’s technological capabilities and self-reliance in developing and operating its own space-based assets. This achievement can boost Turkey’s defense industry by fostering the development of domestic space technology and expertise, reducing reliance on foreign satellite systems for military applications, enabling the creation of new opportunities for research,” Bakir said. Turkeys increased footstep in the heavens comes as its Gulf neighbors to the south are also seeking more space capabilities, meaning that they could look to Ankara, experts said. Bakir said Turkey’s proress could be seen “as a valuable asset” for Gulf nations’ own “defense and security needs,” either through collaboration on satellite related projects, joint “utilization” of existing systems or codevelopment of new ones. https://lnkd.in/dVmaAaFp

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Fascinating read, and some very smart tech deplomacy largely driven by the Department of Commerce. Triggered some broader thoughts on the strategic competition with the PRC, which requires a sustained (transcending successive administrations) whole of government campaign. This campaign requires clearly defined, long-term national-level objectives that are deliberately coordinated across different governmental agencies. While there are successful examples of such efforts, more could be done to better articulate such a campaign and its objectives. I.e., which agency owns what objective and how are the other agencies expected to support. The objectives / goals could be a little crisper IMO. With this in mind, the National Security Strategy (NSS) should ideally offer more detailed guidance on setting these goals and enhancing inter-agency cooperation to achieve them. While I recognize that this detailed implementation often occurs behind the scenes, I wonder if publicly outlining these goals/objectives could help maintain better focus and alignment.

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"Since the start of the civil war, Beijing has promoted such a resolution, driven in part by fears of Arab spring-style uprisings and concerns about Uygur extremists joining jihadist groups in Syria. At the time, China pledged aid to assist in rebuilding war-torn Syria, with President Xi Jinping and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad also announcing a strategic partnership. The immediate objectives of China’s investments are related to the importance of two ports, Tartus and Latakia. These ports hold strategic value due to their proximity to key container terminals integral to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, including Piraeus in Greece, Haifa in Israel, and Tripoli in Lebanon." It is hard to chart a long term ME strategy - without being in theatre. The China-Syra investment projects are things that China can afford to write off. It is not clear how much they have actually invested in these projects given that 2020 to 2024, is a very short period of time what with covid and all. "Syria plays a crucial role in China’s strategy to expand its influence in the Middle East, as the country aims to fill the vacuum left by the US." So I am not so sure about this statement at all. Syria is an important piece of the Chinese ME puzzle, but it is more a Russian piece than a Chinese one. Critically China is trying to use soft-economic power to enhance its status in the ME; and it wanted UAE/KSA money to invest in HK and China (what they got was instead UAE and KSA wanting Chinese money to invest in fantasy projects). As such, KSA occupies a higher status than Syria, Pakistan is much more important than Syria. To put it bluntly, Syria is above Lebanon, Yemen, and Palestine. Maybe on par with Jordan. According to China's reckoning, it is within Russia's, Turkey's and Iran's orbit; and those presence makes it hard for China to want to plonk its money down.

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The Middle East faces a precarious situation with the potential for regional war escalation looming large. Tensions between key players like Iran and Israel have reached a critical point, exacerbated by proxy conflicts, missile strikes, and military engagements. Without a concerted effort to de-escalate, the risk of wider regional conflict grows significantly. Such escalation not only threatens the stability and security of the Middle East but also carries the ominous potential to draw the United States into yet another war in the region. With the U.S. deeply involved in Middle Eastern affairs, any escalation could quickly entangle American interests, leading to further military intervention and exacerbating an already volatile situation. Urgent diplomatic efforts are needed to reduce tensions, prevent further escalation, and foster dialogue to address underlying grievances and disputes. Failure to do so could have far-reaching consequences, with implications not only for the Middle East but also for global peace and security. https://lnkd.in/gKru766y

Regulators who want to get a grip on an emerging generation of artificially intelligent killing machines may not have much time left to do so, governments were warned on Monday. As autonomous weapons systems rapidly proliferate, including across battlefields in Ukraine and Gaza, algorithms and unmanned aerial vehicles are already helping military planners decide whether or not to hit targets. Soon, that decision could be outsourced entirely to the machines. “This is the Oppenheimer Moment of our generation,” said Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg, referencing J. Robert Oppenheimer, who helped invent the atomic bomb in 1945 before going on to advocate for controls over the spread of nuclear arms. Civilian, military and technology officials from more than 100 countries convened Monday in Vienna to discuss how their economies can control the merger of AI with military technologies — two sectors that have recently animated investors, helping pushing stock valuations to historic highs. Spreading global conflict combined with financial incentives for companies to promote AI adds to the challenge of controlling killer robots, according to Jaan Tallinn, an early investor in Alphabet Inc.’s AI platform DeepMind Technologies. “Silicon Valley’s incentives might not be aligned with the rest of humanity,” Tallinn said. Governments around the world have taken steps to collaborate with companies integrating AI tools into defense. The Pentagon is pouring millions of dollars into AI startups. The European Union last week paid Thales SA to create an imagery database to help evaluate battlefield targets. Tel Aviv-based +972 Magazine reported this month that Israel was using an artificial intelligence program called “Lavender” to come up with assassination targets. After the story — which Israel has disputed — United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said he was “deeply troubled” by reports of AI use in the Gaza military campaign and that no part of life-and-death decisions should be delegated to the cold calculations of algorithms. “The future of slaughter bots is here,” said Anthony Aguirre, a physicist who predicted the trajectory the technology would take in a short 2017 film seen by more than 1.6 million viewers. “We need an arms-control treaty negotiated by the United Nations General Assembly.” But advocates of diplomatic solutions are likely to be frustrated, at least in the short term, according to Alexander Kmentt, Austria’s top disarmament official and the architect of this week’s conference. “A classical approach to arms control doesn’t work because we’re not talking about a single weapons system but a combination of dual-use technologies,” Kmentt said in an interview.

#KFF #Analysis #Finds #That #Firearms #Were #Involved #in #79Percent #of #Homicides #and #55Percent #of #Suicide #Deaths #in2022 "#Firearm-#Related #Deaths #Rose #Sharply #Over the #Last #Decade, From 92 deaths Per Day in 2012 to132 Deaths Per Day in 2022."

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Unveiling Impunity: The Imperative for Accountability in Global Military Conduct: Recent revelations from a British Ministry of Defence inquiry have unveiled disturbing evidence of unlawful killings by UK Special Forces in Afghanistan between 2010 and 2013. Testimonies suggest that these elite units operated with a perceived “golden pass,” enabling them to act with impunity and prioritize body counts over ethical conduct. Such actions not only contravene international law but also erode the moral integrity of military operations. The lack of accountability and transparency within these forces raises pressing questions about oversight mechanisms and the ethical standards upheld by nations that position themselves as global leaders. The international community must confront these issues head-on. Establishing independent oversight bodies to monitor and investigate military conduct is imperative. Furthermore, fostering a culture within armed forces that emphasizes ethical behavior and accountability is essential to prevent future transgressions. The silence surrounding other global atrocities, such as the ongoing crisis in Gaza, further underscores the selective attention and moral inconsistencies prevalent among powerful nations. This selective scrutiny not only undermines the pursuit of global justice but also perpetuates cycles of violence and impunity. In seeking accountability, we must ask: Who judges the judges? It is incumbent upon international institutions, civil society, and the global citizenry to hold these powers accountable. By demanding transparency, justice, and adherence to international law, we can strive to create a world where power does not equate to unchecked authority, and where justice is not a privilege but a universal right.

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*Expanding Proxy Warfare in the Middle East* The future of Middle East security will, therefore, be determined by how better nations fit into this new world order where it becomes very hard to distinguish between state and non-state actors and regional and global conflicts. Read my opinion on recent event happened in #MiddleEast 👇 https://lnkd.in/daTeUggc

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My article on forecasting the potential deployment of weapons of mass destruction by terrorist groups and lone actors has been published by CBNW Magazine. Hope you find it interesting. https://lnkd.in/e645_eXi

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AI Automated Warfare in Gaza: Examining the Horrific Implications of AI-Driven Targeting Systems in Future Conflicts "Disclaimer: This article does not represent a political stance on the conflicts discussed; rather, it focuses on the troubling implications of AI in warfare. It's important to acknowledge that all war is devastating and tragic" In this continuing series of articles about AI, I am trying to educate people on how AI is quickly and radically re-shaping the world for the better and for the worst. The Israeli army's AI-based program "Lavender" has dramatically reshaped military operations in Gaza, marking a significant shift towards the automation of warfare. This AI system processes surveillance data from Gaza to identify potential targets by assigning each individual a score that predicts their affiliation with militant groups like Hamas or PIJ. Those with high scores are automatically designated as military targets. This technology has led to an alarming escalation in the pace and scale of operations, with minimal human oversight. Lavender's influence was particularly pronounced during the early stages of the conflict, when it was responsible for decisions that led to substantial civilian casualties. The AI system, despite its sophistication, has a concerning margin of error; it has been noted that approximately 10% of the people it marked for targeting were wrongly identified as militants. This error rate translates into significant civilian casualties. For instance, during a specific period, over 15,000 Palestinian deaths were reported, nearly half of the total casualties at that time, many of whom were entire families wiped out in their homes​ REF - (+972 Magazine)​​ (EL PAÍS English)​​ (Democracy Now!)​. The use of AI like Lavender in warfare raises grave concerns, as it automates critical military decisions without robust safeguards or accountability. This situation underscores the urgent need for global governance to regulate AI in military operations. Without strict international guidelines and transparency, the balance between technological progress and humanitarian principles is at severe risk. It is imperative that global leaders establish comprehensive oversight to prevent increased civilian casualties and ensure accountability in the use of AI in conflicts​ REF (UPI)​. Terry Vermeylen is a technology writer, IT project manager, and solution architect with extensive experience working with the world's biggest companies, including advising the US Navy. His writings focus on the transformative impact of artificial intelligence across various industries, particularly in operational optimization.

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Wise words (as usual) from Paul Cornish on why the UK does not need yet another ‘grand strategy’. Perhaps we might go further and wonder why the next government would want to take a year to conduct a defence review? If the Labour Party doesn’t know what is required to defend the UK and it’s various interests after 14 years preparation in opposition, one might wonder what they have been doing. Further delays - 12 months for a review, 3 months (at best) to establish an implementation plan, 2-5 years to actually start making the changes and see results - will not make the UK a safer place. On the contrary: the evidence points to delays being disastrous for UK national security. The idea - held in both main political parties - that there is time to ponder and defer decisions has long since passed. Neither the Conservatives nor the Labour Party have good records with defence, the chances are that the next SDR will not alter the fundamentals of managing decline (the grand strategy of politicians towards national security since the 1980s). For a more nuanced view, see Paul’s sub stack post below from earlier this month…..

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Here is a question for you: what would be different to today in a China-led world order? (If you have any thoughts please do leave them in the chat below.) Later this week I’m speaking at the Lancaster University Defence and Security Dialogue, which this year is looking at “Navigating a Sino-Centric World Order”. I’ve been looking at the concept of this for quite some time now - it was, after all, partly the reason I started writing What China Wants. That China wants a new world order is without doubt. That Russia is part of this too is also pretty sure; as Xi told Putin in the summer after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, ““Right now there are changes – the likes of which we haven’t seen for 100 years – and we are the ones driving these changes together”. The difficulty is that China has not actually spelled out what a Sino-Centric world order would look like. Instead we are left with nebulous concepts like “The Vision of Building a Globally Shared Future” as laid out by Xi Jinping, originally in 2013 but often since. What does this even mean? There will be political, economic, and technological elements to it, as well as military ones of course. But no one has yet really managed to grapple with the explicit outcomes of the US-led world order being replaced. For this reason I’m really looking forward to the dialogue - will write a longer post when I have collected my thoughts from it. https://lnkd.in/eJ7rDAQg

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The Just Security Podcast Assessing the Origins, Dynamics, and Future of Conflict in Sudan The conflict in Sudan, which erupted in April 2023, primarily involves the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) under General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti. While the fighting began in the country’s capital, Khartoum, it has since spread to other regions, including Darfur. The conflict has resulted in thousands of deaths and injuries, with estimates of 15,000 killed and more than 20,000 injured. The humanitarian crisis is dire, with millions facing severe food shortages. Around 25 million people are in need of assistance, 8.1 million are internally displaced, and 2.9 million people have crossed the border since April 2023. Recent discussions at the United Nations General Assembly highlighted the urgent need for international intervention and support. Meanwhile, the most recent clashes in Khartoum suggest a possible shift in the balance of power, as both sides continue to vie for control amid an increasingly fragmented landscape. https://lnkd.in/eZc_-Keh

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  Nina L. Khrushcheva combines historical and contemporary analyses to explain Russian President Vladimir Putin's foreign policy decisions.   Drawing from George F. Kennan's 1947 analysis of Soviet behavior, Khrushcheva highlights how Putin's actions are driven by his desire for Russia to be recognized as a global power, akin to the United States.   Like his Soviet predecessors, Putin seeks this acknowledgment, which has led to conflicts such as the 2008 invasion of Georgia and the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, particularly in response to NATO’s expansion and perceived Western hostility.   Khrushcheva warns against underestimating Putin’s threats, noting that Russia often endures external pressure before retaliating forcefully.   She suggests that dismissing Putin's "red lines" could provoke severe responses, including the potential use of nuclear weapons if he perceives existential threats to Russia.   However, in today's globalized world, such drastic measures, including nuclear escalation, seem increasingly unlikely.   The broader geopolitical context, involving the U.S., Europe, and China, points to a more nuanced set of outcomes, especially with the upcoming U.S. elections likely to shape the trajectory of the war in Ukraine.   The 2024 U.S. elections will be pivotal. U.S. military and economic support has been crucial for Ukraine's resistance. If Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins, U.S. policy could shift. Trump may reduce involvement, pushing for diplomacy, while Harris might continue support but focus on de-escalation.   Either way, U.S. involvement will heavily influence the war's outcome.   Europe, meanwhile, faces severe economic and political costs.   The conflict has strained economies, driven up energy prices, and spurred inflation, leading to widespread discontent.   Populist movements are gaining traction as European leaders struggle to balance supporting Ukraine while addressing domestic challenges.   The longer the war drags on, the greater the risk of destabilizing European politics and deepening EU divisions.   China plays a crucial role by balancing support for Russia against U.S. influence while avoiding direct confrontation with the West.   Further escalation, especially nuclear rhetoric, could harm China’s economic interests, pushing it toward a mediating role to maintain stability.   Khrushcheva’s insights into Putin’s mindset are valuable, but given the interconnected global economy, it seems more likely that non-state actors in the Middle East, supported by regional powers such as Iran, pose more immediate risks than Russia using nuclear weapons. #geopolitics #russia #ukraine #usa #usaelections #europeanunion #china #nato #globaltrade #nuclearthreat #foreignpolicy #middleeast #israel #iran #nonstateactor Project Syndicate @Nina L. Khrushcheva  

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