Mark Meyrick

Morning Briefing 12/12/2024 Day ahead (DA)/Intraday   ·Demand is currently at approx. 40.9GW and due to peak this evening at 44.7GW. ·DA markets auctioned between £84 - £506 yesterday for today. ·Baseload auctioned at @ £198.72 in the 1hr and £234.74 in the 30min auction. ·Wind generation is currently 1GW under forecast at 1.3GW an due to rise to 3.3GW this evening and continue up to 6.8GW tomorrow. Solar is due to peak at 0.7GW at 11.30am. ·Current intraday power price at time of writing was £243.57/MWh with gas providing 73.9%/27.83GW, wind providing 4.8%/1.80GW, solar providing 0.1%/0.04GW and nuclear providing 10.0%/3.76GW of UK demand. ·DA gas is currently trading at 109.30p/th (3.73p/KWh) ·DA power is currently trading at £148.00/MWh (14.80p/KWh)   Month ahead (Jan 25) ·Jan NBP gas is currently down 0.54% at 109.62p/th (3.74p/KWh). ·Jan TTF gas is currently down 0.75% at €44.38MWh. ·Jan UK Baseload currently at £95.50/MWh (9.55p/KWh) ·UK gas prices were negative yesterday, with the DA price down 2.31%, predominantly pressure by milder and windier weather forecasts for the second half of December. Along the curve, the Sum25 contract was down 1.35% as the strong LNG supply continued to add to the bearish sentiment despite the rise in gas for power demand. ·UK power prices were mixed, with the DA price up 13.52% due to the forecast drop in wind and solar generation today, which caused markets to auction as high as £506/MWh in the peak. Along the curve, the Sum25 contract was down 0.51% tracking the gas sentiment as the milder weather and strong supply picture added pressure. ·According to Gassco AS, there is an unplanned outage at Asgard with 8.6mcm unavailable capacity, with total exports at 330.2mcm. ·OMV has terminated its Gazprom contract with immediate effect, citing alleged violations of contractual obligations by the Russian supplier, is said late on Wednesday. ·Oil prices are up slightly this morning as forecasts of weak demand and a higher than expected rise in US gasoline and distillate inventories stemmed gains from an additional round of EU sanctions threatening Russian oil flows. ·Latest forecasts show temps to be milder than once thought, rising 3degrees above norms on the 16th and then staying above or on averages. ·There are currently 10 LNG cargoes due in the coming weeks. ·UK Gas prices as of Wednesdays close -  o   Month ahead 110.22p/th (3.76p/KWh) down 2.38% DoD* o   Q1 25 110.15p/th (3.76p/KWh) down 2.24% DoD o   Summer 25 104.31p/th (3.56p/KWh) down 1.35% DoD ·UK Power prices as of Wednesdays close – o   Month ahead £95.45/MWh (9.55p/KWh) down 1.70% DoD* o   Q1 25 £93.11MWh (9.31p/KWh) down 1.48% DoD o   Summer 25 £80.50MWh (8.05p/KWh) down 0.51% DoD *DoD = Day on Day All prices and info correct at time of writing. Eco Logic Partners Jason Gary Martin Karl Lucas Jo #energy #trading #power #gas #lng #wind #gazprom

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                 Morning Briefing 13/11/2024 Day ahead (DA)/Intraday   ·Demand is currently at approx. 38.9GW and due to peak this evening at 41.8GW. ·DA markets auctioned between £84 - £159 yesterday for today. ·Baseload auctioned at @ £113.00 in the 1hr and £111.24 in the 30min auction. ·Wind generation is currently at 4.0W and due to stay at similar levels throughout the day before climbing up to 13.5GW tomorrow. Solar is due to peak at 4.5GW at 11am. ·Current intraday power price at time of writing was £126.99/MWh with gas providing 59.2%/21.38GW, wind providing 14.7%/5.30GW, solar providing 2.4%/0.87GW and nuclear providing 13.3%/4.80GW of UK demand. ·DA gas is currently trading at 109.00p/th (3.72p/KWh) ·DA power is currently trading at £107.00/MWh (10.70p/KWh)   Month ahead (Dec 24) ·Dec NBP gas is currently down 1.90% at 110.29p/th (3.76p/KWh). ·Dec TTF gas is currently down 2.50% at €43.10MWh. ·Dec UK Baseload currently at £92.00/MWh (9.20p/KWh) ·UK gas prices were mixed yesterday, rising and falling throughout the day, with the DA price up 1.00% as some below normal temps gave some support to prices. Along the curve, the Q1 25 contract was up 1.53% as the increased gas demand for heating meant storage stocks were being withdrawn and kept the market on its toes.    ·UK power prices were also mixed, with the DA price down just 0.07% as forecast renewables and demand looked to stay at similar levels today. Along the curve, contracts were mixed, with the Q1 25 contract up 0.59% as the forecast of some colder weather next week, although the forecast of surging wind power helped to keep a lid on some prices. ·Ofgem has approved five undersea energy projects to enhance the UK’s clean energy and energy security, potentially positioning it as a net exporter by 2030 - three of them are interconnectors that will add nearly 3GW of capacity by linking the UK with Germany, Ireland, and Scotland ·According to Gassco AS, there are no unplanned outages this morning with total exports at 345.0mcm. ·Oil prices were slightly up this morning, underpinned by signs of near term supply tightness but held near their lowest in two weeks, a day after OPEC downgraded its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025.   ·Latest forecasts show potential for temps next week to be below seasonal norms. ·There are currently 3 LNG cargoes due by 25th November. ·UK Gas prices as of Tuesdays close -  o   Month ahead 112.43p/th (3.84p/KWh) up 1.69% DoD* o   Q1 25 111.96p/th (3.82p/KWh) up 1.53% DoD o   Summer 25 103.73p/th (3.54p/KWh) up 1.13% DoD ·UK Power prices as of Tuesdays close – o   Month ahead £92.30/MWh (9.23p/KWh) up 0.49% DoD* o   Q1 25 £95.43MWh (9.54p/KWh) up 0.59% DoD o   Summer 25 £80.18MWh (8.02p/KWh) down 0.11% DoD *DoD = Day on Day All prices and info correct at time of writing. Eco Logic Partners Jason Gary Martin Karl Lucas Jo David Chart - e*star #energy #trading #power #gas #lng #winter

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For over two decades, the UK has been a key market for us — and we are dedicated to the country, with ambitious plans for deepening our engagement and making transformative investments.    With the announcement of a new Industrial Strategy focused on clean energy as a key growth sector, the new government wants to play a constructive, strategic role in the economy. Working in partnership with the private sector to drive forward its mission for economic growth and the ambitious plan to achieve clean power by 2030. This week’s International Investment Summit in London provided a valuable opportunity to discuss this with government officials, led by Prime Minister Keir Starmer and industry executives.    As the leading power generator and a leading renewables developer in the UK, we are already generating electricity for around 12 million homes with an installed capacity of almost 10 GW.     With 2.2 GW of renewables currently under construction across offshore and onshore wind, solar, and storage, we intend to invest around €8 billion net until the end of this decade in developing clean energy projects in the UK and further strengthening our presence. Meanwhile, we are helping to unlock a green economy in the UK by generating high-quality jobs, strengthening supply chains, and fostering thriving local communities.    I would like to thank everyone involved in the organisation of this excellent summit, as well as Prime Minister Keir Starmer, State Secretary Ed Miliband from the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, and Jonathan Reynolds MP, Secretary of State for Business and Trade, Sarah Jones, Minister for Industry, and Eluned Morgan, First Minister of Wales, for the valuable exchange. 📷: Jonathan Brad /PA Images / Alamy Stock Photo

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UK Energy Prices Pump as Supply Risks Loom: Gas, Power, and Renewables Face Winter Challenges - 30.09.24. Today’s UK energy market opened with modest gains in both gas and power prices. The NBP Day-Ahead gas price settled at 91.50 p/therm, reflecting a 1.70 p/therm increase from the previous session. This price movement is driven by concerns over supply constraints, with Norwegian production still facing challenges, particularly at Nybro and Kristin facilities. These issues, coupled with a lack of LNG regasification nominations, have tightened the UK system, which opened 12 mcm/day short this morning. Flows from Norway through Langeled are lower, and Vesterled is currently not exporting gas. The overall gas flow was measured at 290.5 mcm/day, the highest recorded exit nominations in over a month, yet the market remains wary as the risk of further supply disruptions continues, especially with winter approaching. In terms of storage, no withdrawals from medium-range storage (MRS) sites were observed, while Rough continues with steady injections. Warmer temperatures for early October are forecast, with a potential peak on October 6th, pushing temperatures nearly two degrees above seasonal norms. Windspeeds are predicted to stay above average early this week, offering a boost to renewable generation. However, a dip in wind generation is expected between October 2nd and 5th. The UK nuclear output remains below full capacity, and further reductions are expected, with output dropping to 4.0 GW by the weekend. Power prices saw similar upward momentum, with the Day-Ahead Base price settling at £76.80/MWh, a significant increase compared to Friday. Day-Ahead Peak prices were even more pronounced, rising to £86.01/MWh. Spot contracts saw the largest gains, driven by the weather forecast and ongoing concerns over gas supply. Looking ahead, power prices for Q125 continue to rise, with the market pricing in potential further supply squeezes as winter progresses. In the wider energy market, Brent crude oil for November delivery settled at $71.98 per barrel, ticking up by $0.38. Coal prices for delivery in 2025 also showed some movement, rising by $2.77 to $123.77/tonne, as global markets continue to balance supply and demand. As we head into October, market participants are preparing for the onset of colder weather and the increased demand that will follow. Supply risks from Norwegian fields and global LNG flows are being carefully monitored, while renewable generation, particularly wind, will play a critical role in offsetting these supply concerns. With temperatures expected to dip below average after October 8th, the balance of supply and demand in the UK energy market will likely tighten further. Traders and stakeholders will continue to watch geopolitical developments, weather forecasts, and the ongoing challenges in gas and power supply as we move towards the end of the year.

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We have today launched our annual Gas Winter Outlook. Each year, this report outlines how we see the gas system’s capacity in Great Britain, as well as pressure points and overall resilience for the upcoming winter. We expect gas demand will remain similar to last year. Great Britain's diverse and flexible gas supplies position us well to manage the colder weather ahead. What remains paramount is the role gas plays in our energy system. Our report found that last year, gas accounted for over 50% of Great Britain’s electricity generation between high-demand periods like late November to early December. As we work towards incorporating renewables and other sources of green energy into our wider energy system, gas’ vital role in the energy system cannot be understated, as it continues to prove essential in providing businesses and industries with the energy they need. Working closely with our cross-industry partners, I am confident in our abilities at National Gas to deliver the energy Great Britain needs this winter – keeping the lights on, industries fuelled and homes warm. Gas remains critical in this effort as we transition towards cleaner alternatives. #SecuringBritainsEnergy Read the full report here: https://lnkd.in/eC6WFgXf

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Morning Briefing 11/09/2024 Day ahead (DA)/Intraday   ·Demand is currently at approx. 28.1GW and due to peak this evening at 33.7GW. ·DA markets auctioned between £10 - £112 yesterday for today. ·Baseload auctioned at @ £50.04 in the 1hr and £54.88 in the 30min auction. ·Wind generation is currently approx. 2GW under forecast at 11.9GW and meant to peak at 14.9GW later today before slowly dropping to 6.5GW tomorrow evening. Solar is due to peak at 6.7GW at midday. ·Current intraday power price at time of writing was £78.14/MWh with gas providing 11.4%/3.63GW, wind providing 48.0%/15.27GW, solar providing 7.6%/2.41GW and nuclear providing 15.3%/4.87GW of UK demand. ·DA gas is currently trading at 86.90p/th (2.97p/KWh) ·DA power is currently trading at £79.00/MWh (7.90p/KWh)   Month ahead (Oct 24) ·Oct NBP gas is currently up 1.18% at 85.58p/th (2.92p/KWh). ·Oct TTF gas is currently up 0.90% at €35.60MWh. ·Oct UK Baseload closed at £72.00/MWh (7.20p/KWh) ·UK gas prices fell to a 5 week low yesterday, with the DA down 4.21% with the slump seeming to be drive by the drop in oil prices which as helped to curb the cost of LNG in Asia. Along the curve, the Win24 was down 4.62% due to the bearish fundamentals and the news that Hurricane Francine appeared to be moving away from three key US LNG facilities.   ·UK power prices evolved differently, with the DA price climbing 40.96% due to the forecast drop in wind generation compared to Monday. Along the curve, the Win24 contract was down 3.42% with the gas sentiment and drop in the carbon market adding further pressure alongside the other bearish fundamentals. ·According to Gassco AS, there are no unplanned outages with total flows reduced due to planned maintenance at 192.8MSm. ·Oil prices are positive this morning, paring some of yesterdays losses, as concerns about Hurricane Francine disrupting output in the US outweighed worries about weak global demand.   ·Latest forecasts show temps to be a few degrees under seasonal norms for the coming days but then be back around norms at the weekend. ·There are currently 3 LNG cargoes due in the coming weeks. ·UK Gas prices as of Tuesdays close -  o   Month ahead 84.58p/th (2.89p/KWh) down 5.96% DoD* o   Q4 24 91.96p/th (3.14p/KWh) down 4.97% DoD o   Winter 24 95.55p/th (3.26p/KWh) down 4.62% DoD ·UK Power prices as of Tuesdays close – o   Month ahead £72.65/MWh (7.27p/KWh) down 4.22% DoD* o   Q4 24 £80.99MWh (8.10p/KWh) down 3.65% DoD o   Winter 24 £84.89MWh (8.49p/KWh) down 3.42% DoD *DoD = Day on Day All prices and info correct at time of writing. Eco Logic Partners Jason Gary Martin Karl Lucas David Jo Chart credit - e*star #energy #trading #power #gas #oil #renewables #lng #norway

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End of Day UK #Energy Market Update – 05/09/2024 The UK energy markets saw a notable rebound today, ending a three-day losing streak across Power and Gas prices. Front-month UK Power closed at £74.25/MWh, up by 1.71%, while the front-month NBP Gas contract saw an increase of 1.79%, closing at 87.52p/therm. This uptick comes after a period of downward pressure, likely driven by the recent cooler weather forecasts and improved wind generation across Europe. Gas prices, which had been in decline, regained momentum following Russian President Vladimir Putin's comments, indicating that Russia remains willing to supply gas to Europe through Gazprom. However, with Europe's firm stance on reducing dependency on Russian gas, concerns are mounting over potential supply constraints post-New Year, as the transit agreement via Ukraine is set to expire. Further out on the curve, Q1 2025 Power prices increased by 1.95%, closing at £82.36/MWh, while Gas contracts for the same period rose by 2.04%, finishing at 94.67p/therm. Market sentiment remains cautious, with traders pricing in possible supply disruptions and colder-than-expected weather forecasts for early 2025. In the carbon markets, Dec24 EUAs slipped by 0.66%, closing at €66.56/tonne, reflecting a softening in demand expectations. In contrast, UKAs inched up by 0.57%, finishing at £42.01/tonne as the UK government continues to align its carbon policies with broader European targets. On the global commodities front, Brent crude surged by 1.68%, settling at $73.92/barrel, amid tightening supply expectations as OPEC+ maintains its output cuts. This rise in oil prices also provided some bullish sentiment to the broader energy complex. With geopolitical tensions still a key driver of volatility, and Europe on the cusp of transitioning away from Russian gas supplies, it remains essential for market participants to stay agile in navigating the evolving landscape. Our team at Catalyst Commercial Services Ltd is here to provide insights and support as you navigate the evolving energy landscape. #EnergyMarket #UKEnergy #CarbonTrading #NaturalGas #MarketUpdate #EnergyInsights

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Daily Energy Market Update - September 2nd, 2024 Today’s UK energy market saw significant movements, particularly in both gas and power prices. The NBP Gas Day-Ahead price experienced a notable increase of 2.65%, reaching 94.79 p/th. This upward trend extended to key contracts such as October 2024, which rose by 2.07% to 96.15 p/th. These price movements reflect the current market dynamics and underlying factors influencing supply and demand. In the power market, UK Base Day-Ahead power prices surged dramatically, with a sharp increase of 42.56%, bringing the price to £91.97/MWh. Even more striking was the rise in peak power prices, which climbed by 56.12% to £93.50/MWh. These significant jumps in power prices can be attributed to several critical factors impacting the market this week. One of the primary drivers is the forecasted shortfall in wind power generation. This week, wind output is expected to fall over 20% below seasonal norms. As wind plays a crucial role in the UK's energy mix, this reduction in generation capacity is putting upward pressure on prompt energy prices, as the market anticipates a tighter supply-demand balance. Adding to the bullish sentiment in the gas market is the ongoing industrial maintenance in Norway, which is set to have a considerable impact on gas flows. With a reduction of 40 million cubic meters per day in Norwegian gas flows, the market is reacting with higher prices as supply tightens. Despite these factors, temperatures in Britain for the week are expected to align with seasonal norms. While this will likely have a limited impact on gas demand, the market is more focused on the supply-side constraints and the reduced wind generation that are driving prices higher. Looking at the broader energy complex, we see TTF Gas Day-Ahead prices inching up by 0.89% to €39.15/MWh, while the Front Month price rose by 2.43% to €39.82/MWh. On the global front, Brent Crude prices declined by 2.46%, now trading at $76.93 per barrel. Meanwhile, in the carbon markets, both UK and EU carbon prices saw minor declines, with UK carbon closing at £43.31 per tonne, down 2.61%. In summary, today’s energy market activity is shaped by a combination of reduced wind generation, significant Norwegian gas maintenance, and stable temperature forecasts. These factors are collectively driving the sharp increases we’ve seen in UK power and gas prices. As we move further into the week, it will be crucial to monitor how these elements continue to influence the market. Stay tuned for more updates, and as always, feel free to reach out with any questions or for deeper insights into these trends.

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As of October 1, 2024, the UK energy market has entered a critical period as colder weather and tighter supply conditions push natural gas prices higher. The NBP Day-Ahead settled at 92.35 p/therm today, driven by falling temperatures across the UK and Europe, which are expected to remain below the five-year average for the rest of the week. With Norwegian gas exports holding steady and UKCS terminal receipts down, gas-for-power demand has surged in response to a forecasted decline in wind speeds throughout the week. Meanwhile, UK LNG send-outs have increased to 29 mcm/day, with the next LNG cargo from Qatar anticipated later this week to shore up supplies. On the forward curve, NBP front-month prices climbed modestly, with November 2024 contracts up by 0.96 p/therm to 97.36 p/therm, while December 2024 saw a rise of 0.77 p/therm to 99.36 p/therm. Curve prices continue to reflect market concerns around reduced LNG imports and the potential for increased demand as the winter period approaches, setting the stage for continued volatility. In the power market, UK Day-Ahead baseload prices fell to £71.78/MWh, a drop of £5.02 from the previous session, while peakload power rose to £88.09/MWh. The tightening of the power system, driven by reduced wind generation and increasing reliance on gas for power, suggests further upward pressure on power prices as the week progresses. Forward baseload contracts, particularly January 2025, have seen slight increases, with the contract settling at £90.15/MWh, up by £0.75. As renewable output declines and colder weather takes hold, higher demand for gas-fired power generation is likely to fuel further price hikes. European gas storage levels remain robust, standing at 94.28% as reported by AGSI, offering some cushion for the winter months. However, risks tied to LNG supply reductions and planned outages at key Norwegian gas facilities could exacerbate market tightness. These developments highlight the importance of closely monitoring supply flows as winter approaches. In the global commodities market, Brent crude futures for November 2024 eased slightly by $0.21, settling at $71.77/bbl. Market sentiment remains cautious amid global economic uncertainties, contributing to softening oil prices. On the carbon market, EUA December 2024 prices dropped by €0.77 to settle at €65.56/tonne, while UK ETS contracts also saw a slight decline, closing at £36.45/tonne. These shifts come against the backdrop of ongoing discussions on the future of emissions reductions and energy transition strategies across Europe, which could have further implications for carbon pricing in the coming months. As we move further into October, the market will be focused on how sustained cooler temperatures and reduced wind generation will impact both gas and power prices. LNG cargo arrivals and any potential disruptions to Norwegian gas flows will also be key factors shaping market dynamics in the days ahead.

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Today 16th October’s UK energy landscape reflects shifting dynamics across gas, power, and renewables, with mild temperatures and steady LNG inflows shaping the market. Gas prices on the NBP day-ahead market settled at 96.00 p/therm, slightly lower than the previous session, as the system opened this morning undersupplied by 22 mcm/day. While piped flows from Norway remained flat, UKCS production decreased to 102 mcm/day. LNG send-out from South Hook and Isle of Grain provided 14 mcm/day, with additional LNG cargoes expected in the coming weeks to support the UK’s supply. Power prices followed suit, with the day-ahead baseload settling at £67.88/MWh, a sharp decline from yesterday’s £87.12/MWh, reflecting higher wind generation and milder demand expectations. However, as wind forecasts predict output dropping below seasonal norms in the coming days, gas demand for power generation could increase, potentially influencing prices upward. On the supply side, nuclear availability remained steady despite several ongoing outages, including units at Heysham and Torness. Weather forecasts suggest today will be the warmest of the month so far, with temperatures expected to stay above seasonal norms until the end of October. This trend is contributing to softer demand for heating, easing pressure on both gas and electricity markets. Meanwhile, carbon prices also eased slightly, with EUA Dec 24 certificates trading at €65.09/tonne, and the UK ETS market at £39.04/tonne, reflecting reduced short-term emissions intensity. Currency movements saw GBP/EUR at 1.1997, while GBP/USD edged up to 1.3072. With three LNG cargoes set to arrive soon and strong Norwegian flows to the continent, market fundamentals appear stable, though fluctuations in wind generation may drive volatility in power prices in the days ahead.

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💰 The owner of Scottish Power - Spanish energy giant Iberdrola - have just announced plans to double its investment in the UK over the next four years from £12bn to £24bn. 💰 Keith Anderson, chief executive of Scottish Power, has said that most of the cash will be used to expand the UK's electricity grid in order to connect more homes and businesses. He said the main thing the company had asked for the government to do was to speed up the planning process in order to complete projects faster. Other funds will go to renewable energy projects including £4bn for the delivery of the 960MW East Anglia 2 wind farm off the east coast of England. This is a huge a vote of confidence in the recent changes to the UK’s (renewable) energy policies and is a big boost on the path towards green energy security and net zero in the UK. #offshorewind #iberdrola #ukgovernment #ukenergy #ukrenewables #oxborecruitment https://lnkd.in/eMs_3M8A

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9th January 2025: UK Energy Market Overview - Today’s energy markets provide a compelling narrative amidst the interplay of shifting weather forecasts, LNG arrivals, and generation dynamics. After yesterday’s bearish sentiment that softened spot prices across Europe, the market today reflects nuanced movements influenced by ongoing winter conditions and supply factors. Gas markets opened with near-curve prices declining due to milder weather forecasts, yet the UK system faces a 13 mcm/day undersupply, driven by increased LDZ demand in the current cold snap. However, the arrival of two LNG cargoes today, both from the United States, signals robust replenishment efforts across Northwest Europe, with regional storage levels at 68%. In the power sector, day-ahead prices saw significant gains despite a broader downward trend across the curve. The surge is tied to reduced wind power output and the ongoing outages on key interconnectors, Eleclink and BritNed, expected to return to service in four weeks. These outages compound the challenges of balancing the grid during periods of subdued renewable output. Yesterday, the UK’s National Energy System Operator (NESO) cancelled an electricity margin notice that highlighted potential generation shortfalls. This comes in a year where wind power achieved a historic milestone as the largest contributor to UK electricity generation in 2024, accounting for 30% of the mix and underscoring the growing role of renewables in the energy landscape. Globally, Brent crude trades at $76.16 per barrel, while carbon prices remain steady at €72.17 (EUA Dec 25). Currency movements show the pound weakening slightly against the euro and dollar, trading at £1.1990/€ and £1.2362/$ respectively. As winter progresses, the market remains reactive to weather-driven demand shifts, LNG flows, and storage dynamics. The continued interplay of these factors will define the energy landscape in the weeks ahead.

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UK Carbon Regulator is essential for the functioning of a net zero economy - Energy Systems Catapult (ESC) released its Operationalising a Carbon Regulator report, which aims to guide the development of a robust regulatory framework for carbon accounting in the UK. ESC states that a Carbon Regulator would be “crucial” to the standardisation of carbon accounting practices, emphasising that the implementation of a Carbon Regulator is essential for the functioning of a net zero economy by: reducing investment risks; building investor, business, and consumer confidence; and levelling the playing field for innovators. The report outlines that a UK Carbon Regulator could utilise its potential position as a first mover to promote the credibility of UK low carbon industry, while demonstrating the value of nationally coordinated carbon accounting regulations. In delivering this, ESC notes that a Carbon Regulator would require a mandate to enable continuous international engagement. https://lnkd.in/eEXm4sV9

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                 Morning Briefing 16/08/2024   Day ahead (DA)/Intraday   ·Demand is currently at approx. 26.6GW and due to peak this evening at 29.3GW. ·DA markets auctioned between £35 - £94 yesterday for today. ·Baseload auctioned at @ £67.29 in the 1hr and £68.90 in the 30min auction. ·Wind generation is currently approx. 1.4GW under forecast at 4.3GW but due to peak at 9.3W later today before dropping to 5.1GW tomorrow. Solar is due to peak at 9.3GW at midday. ·Current intraday power price at time of writing was £89.13/MWh with gas providing 22.2%/6.42GW, wind providing 18.6%/5.39GW, solar providing 11.2%/3.25GW and nuclear providing 19.0%/5.48GW of UK demand. ·DA gas is currently trading at 81.50p/th (2.78p/KWh) ·DA power is currently trading at £63.00/MWh (6.30p/KWh)   Month ahead (Sep 24) ·Sep NBP gas is currently up 0.59% at 96.18p/th (3.28p/KWh). ·Sep TTF gas is currently up 0.86% at €39.98MWh. ·Sep UK Baseload closed at £81.00/MWh (8.10p/KWh) ·UK gas prices had a mixed day yesterday, with the DA price falling 1.27%, although along the curve we saw a late rally, with the Win24 contract closing up 1.03% as Ukraine claimed to have taken full control of a key Russian town for the transit of gas; despite this, the fundamentals of the market continue to be predominantly bearish and a lot of the recent bullish activity being down to large speculative trades by hedge funds. ·UK power prices also had a positive day, with the DA price climbing 28.71% due to the expected drop in wind generation today. Along the curve, the Win24 contract climbing 1.18%, predominantly tracking the gas sentiment as worries around supply continue to ripple through the market despite the current strong supply picture. ·According to Gassco, there are no unplanned outages as of this morning with flows at 331.3msm. ·Oil prices are negative this morning as investors balanced concerns over weak global demand growth, influenced by China’s economic slowdown, against rising tensions in the Middle East and a strong US economy. ·Latest forecasts continue to show temps to hover around or above seasonal norms for the rest of the run.    ·There are currently 2 LNG cargoes due in the coming weeks.   ·UK Gas prices as of Thursdays close -  o   Month ahead 95.62p/th (3.26p/KWh) up 1.52% DoD* o   Q4 24 108.27p/th (3.70p/KWh) up 1.09% DoD o   Winter 24 111.16p/th (3.79p/KWh) up 1.03% DoD ·UK Power prices as of Thursdays close – o   Month ahead £80.95/MWh (8.10p/KWh) up 1.63% DoD* o   Q4 24 £92.27MWh (9.23p/KWh) up 1.18% DoD o   Winter 24 £95.16MWh (9.52p/KWh) up 1.18% DoD *DoD = Day on Day All prices and info correct at time of writing. Eco Logic Partners Jason Gary Martin Karl Lucas Jo David Chart credit - e*star #energy #trading #power #gas #oil #renewables #wind #lng #energymarket #norway

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                 Morning Briefing 20/09/2024 Day ahead (DA)/Intraday   ·Demand is currently at approx. 30.7GW and due to peak this evening at 32.3GW. ·DA markets auctioned between £56 - £115 yesterday for today. ·Baseload auctioned at @ £80.08 in the 1hr and £79.62 in the 30min auction. ·Wind generation is currently on forecast at 5.4GW and due to peak at 8.1GW this evening before dropping down to 3.8GW tomorrow. Solar is due to peak at 5.9GW at 1pm. ·Current intraday power price at time of writing was £70.71/MWh with gas providing 32.4%/10.22GW, wind providing 22.4%/7.05GW, solar providing 3.2%/1.02GW and nuclear providing 15.5%/4.87GW of UK demand. ·DA gas is currently trading at 85.00p/th (2.90p/KWh) ·DA power is currently trading at £77.00/MWh (7.70p/KWh)   Month ahead (Oct 24) ·Oct NBP gas is currently up 3.00% at 81.48p/th (2.78p/KWh). ·Oct TTF gas is currently up 3.33% at €34.19MWh. ·Oct UK Baseload closed at £69.50/MWh (6.95p/KWh) ·UK gas prices fell sharply yesterday to their lowest levels since late July, on news that Ukraine had agreed to allow the transit of gas from Azerbaijan as a temporary measure after the Russia-Ukraine deal expires at the end of 2024, although the deal hasn’t been confirmed, with the DA price falling 6% and the Win24 contract down 6.88%. ·UK power were slightly mixed, with the DA price up 1.01% on the news of falling wind generation today but along the curve the forward prices were down sharply, with the Win24 contract falling 5.55% tracking the gas sentiment on news of the gas transit deal. ·According to Gassco, there is an unplanned outage at Heidrun this morning, reducing flows by 5.2MSm with total flows reduced due to other planned maintenance at 220.9MSm. ·Oil prices are negative this morning as optimism over the US interest rate cuts cooled off but remained on track to end the week higher on heightened tensions in the Middle East. ·Latest forecasts show temps to be above seasonal norms over the weekend then go back to norms next week.   ·There are currently 3 LNG cargoes due in the coming weeks. ·UK Gas prices as of Thursdays close -  o   Month ahead 79.11p/th (2.70p/KWh) down 6.13% DoD* o   Q4 24 84.69p/th (2.89p/KWh) down 6.72% DoD o   Winter 24 87.84p/th (3.00p/KWh) down 6.88% DoD ·UK Power prices as of Thursdays close – o   Month ahead £65.50/MWh (6.55p/KWh) down 5.00% DoD* o   Q4 24 £73.35MWh (7.34p/KWh) down 5.27% DoD o   Winter 24 £76.97MWh (7.70p/KWh) down 5.55% DoD *DoD = Day on Day All prices and info correct at time of writing. Eco Logic Partners Gary Jason Martin Karl Lucas David Jo Chart credit - e*star #energy #trading #power #gas #oil #renewables #lng #norway #winter

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In Most of the UK's wholesale gas contracts experienced declines during September, with the exception of day-ahead contracts. However, there is still significant price risk associated with longer-term contracts due to continued uncertainty about future gas supply, as Europe adapts to reduced Russian gas imports ahead of the December expiration of the Ukraine transit deal. On average, seasonal gas contracts for winter 2024 to winter 2026 fell by 8.1% compared to the previous month. Notably, winter 2025 contracts held the highest average price at 97.75p/th in September. The movement in gas prices was shaped by competing market fundamentals, with day-ahead prices rising in the latter half of the month due to lower wind generation and below-average temperatures, which pushed up demand for gas in power generation and heating. Towards the end of September, unconfirmed reports suggesting that Ukraine had agreed to transit Azerbaijani gas to Europe stirred market volatility. These concerns were heightened by the looming end of the Ukraine-Russia transit agreement, and the potential for disruptions in US LNG output due to Hurricane Francine, which sent a bullish signal through the market. Since the EU relies heavily on US LNG, any disruption in supply could have a significant impact. However, the bearish influence of strong EU gas storage levels acted as a counterbalance to price rises, reinforcing supply confidence for the upcoming winter. Day-ahead gas prices rose 2.6% in September, averaging 86.30p/th. In contrast, front-month contracts saw a 10.2% decline, with October averaging 86.86p/th and November at 93.99p/th. The gap between front-month and day-ahead contracts also narrowed, after the premium in August diminished. Day-ahead power prices mirrored gas trends, climbing by 26.6% to an average of £78.05/MWh in September. The highest price of £92.94/MWh was recorded on September 2, driven by the shutdown of the 580MW Heysham nuclear reactor 1, combined with reduced wind generation. This tightening of system margins required more expensive power sources to meet demand. Despite these day-ahead price increases, seasonal power contracts for winter 2024 to summer 2026 recorded average losses of 7.3%. Front-month power contracts also fell, mirroring the gas market, with October and November 2024 prices down 9.8% to £73.25/MWh and £83.94/MWh, respectively.

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As of 7th October 2024, the UK energy market has opened with notable shifts in gas and power prices, reflecting both geopolitical uncertainty and supply-demand dynamics. UK natural gas prices rose slightly, with the NBP Day-Ahead contract settling at 97.80 pence per therm, a 2 pence increase from the previous session. This upward movement is partially attributed to ongoing unplanned maintenance at Norway's Troll gas field, as well as planned maintenance at other facilities. Total exit nominations have now reached over 300 million cubic meters per day, but despite bullish factors like strong Medium Range Storage injections and increased gas demand for power, market fundamentals remain largely bearish. Norwegian imports to the UK are flowing at 58 million cubic meters per day, while temperatures are forecasted to drop below seasonal averages starting 9th October, which could shift demand in the coming days. UK power prices have also experienced some volatility, with the Day-Ahead baseload price falling to £76.24 per MWh, a decrease of over £7 compared to the previous session. However, forward contracts, particularly for Q1-25, saw increases as prices for Nov-24, Dec-24, and Jan-25 edged up. The gas market’s influence, coupled with geopolitical tensions, continues to play a key role in shaping short-term price movements. Wind speeds are expected to remain above seasonal averages, except for the weekend, which could alleviate some of the pressure on power prices. On the global stage, Brent crude oil saw a modest increase, reaching $78.05 per barrel, reflecting market reactions to heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Ukraine. Coal prices for delivery in 2025 also surged to $127.79 per tonne, a sharp rise of nearly $5 as uncertainties in global supply chains persist. Meanwhile, EU carbon prices have dropped to a six-month low, standing at €62.05 per tonne, amid strong renewable energy output, reduced liquefied natural gas consumption, and macroeconomic concerns. Currency fluctuations have remained relatively stable, with the GBP/EUR exchange rate moving slightly to 1.1942 and GBP/USD holding steady at 1.3116. Looking ahead, the UK system remains 30 million cubic meters per day short as we start the week, with three LNG cargoes expected by 18th October. Windspeeds and temperatures are forecasted to fluctuate, potentially impacting both gas and power markets. The geopolitical landscape, particularly in the Middle East, remains a significant factor to watch, with the potential to drive further market volatility in the weeks ahead.

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#Energy markets in the UK are facing an interesting turn, with shifting weather conditions and fluctuating renewable output adding complexity to the landscape. Over the next week, temperatures are set to rise by 7°C, which could sharply reduce demand for heating. This shift is expected to create bearish pressure on UK gas contracts delivering in the coming days, as less energy will be required for heating across the nation. At the same time, the UK’s wind power generation is forecast to remain 10% below seasonal norms for week 38. This lower-than-expected wind output could result in bullish impacts on prompt UK energy prices, with increased demand for other generation sources to fill the gap. It’s a trend worth watching as we head into the colder months. The UK gas grid opened 10 mcm long this morning, and is projected to close in a similar position. This oversupply may contribute to a bearish sentiment in NBP pricing. The day-ahead gas price dropped by 2.34% to 86.21 p/th, reflecting this trend, while day-ahead power prices saw a sharp 5.89% increase, reaching £84.80/MWh, highlighting the volatility in power markets. As we approach the end of the year, contracts for Q4-24 gas and power have both seen declines, with gas down by 3.07% to 91.08 p/th and power falling by 2.40% to £80.04/MWh. Similarly, Q1-25 gas has dipped by 2.80%, indicating that the market is pricing in less risk as we move into the winter season. With shifting weather forecasts and uncertainty in renewable output, the energy market remains as dynamic as ever. Stay tuned for further developments in the UK energy market as we navigate these changes.

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2 Comments

Today the UK #energy #market continues to be shaped by dynamic fluctuations in #electricity and #gas prices, driven by both domestic factors and broader global energy trends. Electricity Prices: The UK's electricity market has seen varied movements in pricing across different contracts. The UK Day-Ahead (DA) Base price for electricity settled at £80.64 per megawatt-hour (MWh) on August 13, 2024, reflecting a slight increase compared to previous settlements. This trend is consistent with a broader rise across spot and forward contracts, indicating potential upward pressure on prices as we approach the winter months. Gas Prices: Natural gas prices in the UK have shown a similar pattern of slight declines and increases across various contracts. The National Balancing Point (NBP) Day-Ahead price for gas stood at 84.00 pence per therm on August 13, 2024, slightly down from the previous day. However, forward contracts for the upcoming winter months remain higher, with November 2024 gas prices at 109.25 pence per therm. This reflects ongoing concerns about supply constraints and the need for storage filling ahead of the colder season. Market Influences: Several factors have influenced these price movements. The UK's electricity prices are partially affected by the availability of imports from Norway and the operational status of domestic facilities, including scheduled maintenance outages. Additionally, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine has continued to cast uncertainty over gas flows from Russia, which has a ripple effect across European gas markets. Looking Ahead: As we move towards the winter of 2024-2025, market participants are keeping a close eye on storage levels and import capacities, which will play critical roles in determining the trajectory of energy prices. The European Commission's target of achieving a 90% fill rate for gas storage by November 1, 2024, adds an additional layer of strategic importance to these developments. In summary, while electricity prices in the UK have experienced moderate gains, gas prices continue to fluctuate with an overall upward trend for the winter months. Stakeholders in the energy market should remain vigilant to these developments as they plan for the rest of the year​.

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