Serhat Aydogdu

The anti-cyclone combined with heavy cloud cover weather patterns provided much of Europe with low resource levels to energise both #wind and #solar over the first two weeks of November. There is a route to build predictable dispatch of electricity from the UK abundance of #tidal energy in the form of #tidalstream and #tidalbarage. Combined capacity is in the region of 45GW and works positively with #bess and #ldes solutions. The gif below shows the impact of spring and neap tides taking place every 7 days providing predictable dispatch 365 days of the year. If we are looking for joined up thinking to re-energise UK ports and heavy industries we have a small number of world leading UK players in this market to deliver power quickly in a short period relative to #nuclear. So what’s not to like? #positive #gva #positive #cost #benefit - #solving #dunkelflaute

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🔌SSE Plans £22 Billion Investment to Bolster Scotland’s Grid SSE plc’s transmission business plans £22 billion in investments to deliver critical grid infrastructure in Scotland, key to the UK’s energy security goals and ambition to reach a clean power grid by the end of the decade. SSEN Transmission’s targets include the north of Scotland’s transmission network having the capacity to meet 20% of Britain’s clean power needs, the firm added. Expanding the grid and attendant infrastructure improvement is key to the UK’s green targets, allowing wind power from Scotland to be transported to demand centers in England. https://lnkd.in/dYqe8aw3 Read more Bloomberg News

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Following the bold and exciting statements seen last Friday in Ed Miliband's Clean Power 2030 Action Plan, news from National Grid and its plans for major investment in the UK transmission network. "The most significant step forward in the electricity network that we’ve seen in a generation." #cleanpower #netzero #renewables #lowcarbon #cleanpower2030 https://lnkd.in/e7di4bCN

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I'm sure a few of you are up to your armpits in REMA, the Review of Electricity Market Arrangements that DESNEZ launched on the 12th March for response by 7th May. That's some 46 days to respond on the biggest change to our industry since NETA in 2001. And luckily you only have to wade through a mere 294 pages of documentation. For those of you who aren't, this consultation has some proposed changes which have huge implications for the UK power market - and many of them are mad, bad and downright risky. Think I'm indulging in hyperbole? I'd urge you to get familiar with the provisions being considered because they WILL change your business model, whether you are a generator, a customer, a consultancy, a supplier, an investor - yes, in other words everybody. Unfortunately DESNEZ will congratulate themselves on their broad stakeholder engagement, never mind the fact that most actors barely have the resources to do any justice to the amount of work that needs to be done on this. So unless you want to see a meaningful forward market to disappear, PPAs to become a thing of the past, and you want to learn how to trade transmission rights, I urge you to respond. Good luck! #REMA #wholesaletrading #electricitymarkets #nationalgrid

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What does GB Energy mean for climate tech? Freya Pratty and I dig into how the government's plans to invest £8.3bn in renewable energy generation over the next five years — and its hopes to mobilise a hefty £60bn of private capital on top of that — will affect startups in the UK. It could be a "boon for startups" involved in energy generation and the supply chain, says Charlie Mercer, deputy policy director at lobby group Startup Coalition. “We're hoping that GB Energy supports earlier stage generation tech that will be fundamental to Labour's goals, like tidal." "[GB Energy] should provide a boost for the software technologies that accompany hardware and enable them to scale," says Hope Johnson, investor at Octopus Ventures. That could include startups that provide risk modelling, insurance and automated maintenance for hard-to-reach offshore technologies, she adds. Others say this new company could play a part in keeping climate tech companies on UK soil. “​​Government policy and investment has definitely played a role in us backing American, French and Nordic climate companies,” Tommy Stadlen, cofounder at Giant Ventures, tells Sifted, pointing to the role of Bpifrance co-investing “significant capital” alongside private investors. “[They’ve] kept great French companies in France.” Full story here: https://lnkd.in/eYNFdUtF

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Accepted one weeks data is not representative of annual production figures. However, the North East of Scotland is often over looked as a place for #solar deployment with its annual production not too dissimilar to East Midlands. In periods of #dunkelflaute, the north south geographical spread for #solar production is a useful mitigant - see sunshine hours below. Oddly, the handbrake on its development for large scale connections is the Scottish TNUoS charges killing project returns. This is made all the more frustrating as the #wind and #solar is largely non-correlated. Additionally, the #solar summer production profile in the far North extends into the shoulder hours when projects in the South are past peak. Reform of use of system #grid costs needs addressing using an open book and holistic approach.

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This report is a really important contribution to the decarbonisation of the UK energy system and the role of GB Energy in that. Recommended reading for banks and investors seeking to understand likely changes in the landscape of transition finance opportunities in the UK. #netzero #transition #transitionfinance

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According to NESO, amongst what was a record breaking year for green energy generation in the UK, on 18 December 2024 wind provided 68.3% of the UK's electricity! https://lnkd.in/eCD9Kn6N #cleanenergy #greenenergy #lowcarbon #netzero #renewables

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Is 2.1 hours the optimal new build UK battery duration? Yesterday marked the final call for input into Ofgem's LDES (Long Duration Energy Storage) scheme, leaving the door slightly ajar for Li-ion BESS. This raises an important question: what is the optimal merchant BESS duration in today's market? The optimal duration is achieved when marginal revenue (discounted additional revenue) equals marginal cost (the cost of an additional container). According to 2024 NREL data, the first hour costs £487/MWh, covering significant fixed and energy costs (e.g., grid connection, DEVEX). Subsequent marginal costs drop to £237/MWh, reflecting only cell costs. However, there's a good argument to suggest these costs could be significantly lower (check out Modo's excellent recent industry survey). As the chart illustrates, the benefit of increasing capacity declines sharply after the first few hours. Beyond this point, capacity market contracts become the primary value driver, particularly in the absence of sufficient wholesale or balancing mechanism price volatility.

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National Grid is raising £7bn in a rights issue to fund electricity grid expansion in the UK and USA. This is the biggest rights issue in London since 2009, but is there enough here for equity investors? The new capital will help to fund 10% annual asset base growth, and 6-8% growth in earnings, but the growth in the dividend will be in line with CPIH. Clearly this is a fluid number, but currently is at 3%. There is a strong argument that the growth in the dividend should be more aligned with the growth in the underlying business.

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Latest data from Ofgem shows a continued increase in domestic energy debt: ➡️ New peak of £3.7bn ➡️ Second-highest in-quarter increase of £387m ➡️ Industry debt has increased for 7 consecutive quarters ~£243m per quarter ➡️ 74% (£2.8bn) total debt has no arrangement to repay in place ➡️ New peak average balance of £1,094 per customer Given the time lag in this data, this will only confirm what energy suppliers already see day-to-day but it really hits home when you start to dig in to the data and as suppliers get ready to support customers this coming winter.

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Over the past few months we have been working on the role of the State in the GB energy market, feeding directly into the analysis that the recently elected UK Government is doing to set up GB Energy and to develop their wider energy policy. more details in the post below. #gbenergy #netzero #energypolicy #renewableenergy

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Demise of UK innovation In my recent post on the role of the OBR, I cautioned of the perils of a return to 1970’s style wage-price spiral of self-reinforcing rising wages and prices. The government have opted to offer junior doctors a 22% pay rise over two years and the British Medical Association's junior doctors committee will put this offer to its members. First and second year junior doctors currently earn circa £34k pa rising to double that towards the end of training. As they progress along their career path, a Consultant Surgeon can earn a base salary of £132k pa. We would all support our doctors earning a fair wage but this will no doubt open the floodgates for other NHS and Public Sector workers to seek similar rises. Pre-election, the labour party messaging was all about economic growth. But growth in what? We need to invest heavily in leading edge technology, AI and cyber.  It would also be appropriate to rebuild skills in high quality technology manufacturing. So, it is an unfortunate surprise that the government have opted to pull the plug on an £800m exascale supercomputer in Edinburgh and a further £500m for AI Research Resource, which funds computing power for AI. Exascale computing is a massive step forward in computer engineering, which reaches the processing power of the human brain at the neural level, performing one billion billion calculations per second. It would ensure that the UK is well prepared for the data-driven future. We simply cannot afford to cut costs in technology innovation – the level of investment is small relative to the return. #exascale #supercomputer #ai

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Energy transition and decisions. The UK may need to limit how much money it borrows. Without tax increases this will limit the money the government can spend. With the energy transition ongoing a decision will need to be made what other government expenditure to reduce. How much lower health, transport, welfare expenditure will UK society accept for the energy transition? Will consumers be asked to pay more to enable the energy transition? https://lnkd.in/dEbzPdAS

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We all know the future is green, but maybe it’s pink & and purple as well? It can take 13 years to build an offshore wind farm, but the bright sparks at Britain Remade & Octopus Energy managed to construct one in Hackney in two days! Energy security is vital for economic growth and for the U.K. to become more resilient to global events. But like all neccessary change in the U.K. it’s going take a new and innovative approach to regulation (in this case cutting red tape in the planning system) to get growing.

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