Stuart Jackson

End of Day UK #Energy Market Update – 05/09/2024 The UK energy markets saw a notable rebound today, ending a three-day losing streak across Power and Gas prices. Front-month UK Power closed at £74.25/MWh, up by 1.71%, while the front-month NBP Gas contract saw an increase of 1.79%, closing at 87.52p/therm. This uptick comes after a period of downward pressure, likely driven by the recent cooler weather forecasts and improved wind generation across Europe. Gas prices, which had been in decline, regained momentum following Russian President Vladimir Putin's comments, indicating that Russia remains willing to supply gas to Europe through Gazprom. However, with Europe's firm stance on reducing dependency on Russian gas, concerns are mounting over potential supply constraints post-New Year, as the transit agreement via Ukraine is set to expire. Further out on the curve, Q1 2025 Power prices increased by 1.95%, closing at £82.36/MWh, while Gas contracts for the same period rose by 2.04%, finishing at 94.67p/therm. Market sentiment remains cautious, with traders pricing in possible supply disruptions and colder-than-expected weather forecasts for early 2025. In the carbon markets, Dec24 EUAs slipped by 0.66%, closing at €66.56/tonne, reflecting a softening in demand expectations. In contrast, UKAs inched up by 0.57%, finishing at £42.01/tonne as the UK government continues to align its carbon policies with broader European targets. On the global commodities front, Brent crude surged by 1.68%, settling at $73.92/barrel, amid tightening supply expectations as OPEC+ maintains its output cuts. This rise in oil prices also provided some bullish sentiment to the broader energy complex. With geopolitical tensions still a key driver of volatility, and Europe on the cusp of transitioning away from Russian gas supplies, it remains essential for market participants to stay agile in navigating the evolving landscape. Our team at Catalyst Commercial Services Ltd is here to provide insights and support as you navigate the evolving energy landscape. #EnergyMarket #UKEnergy #CarbonTrading #NaturalGas #MarketUpdate #EnergyInsights

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For over two decades, the UK has been a key market for us — and we are dedicated to the country, with ambitious plans for deepening our engagement and making transformative investments.    With the announcement of a new Industrial Strategy focused on clean energy as a key growth sector, the new government wants to play a constructive, strategic role in the economy. Working in partnership with the private sector to drive forward its mission for economic growth and the ambitious plan to achieve clean power by 2030. This week’s International Investment Summit in London provided a valuable opportunity to discuss this with government officials, led by Prime Minister Keir Starmer and industry executives.    As the leading power generator and a leading renewables developer in the UK, we are already generating electricity for around 12 million homes with an installed capacity of almost 10 GW.     With 2.2 GW of renewables currently under construction across offshore and onshore wind, solar, and storage, we intend to invest around €8 billion net until the end of this decade in developing clean energy projects in the UK and further strengthening our presence. Meanwhile, we are helping to unlock a green economy in the UK by generating high-quality jobs, strengthening supply chains, and fostering thriving local communities.    I would like to thank everyone involved in the organisation of this excellent summit, as well as Prime Minister Keir Starmer, State Secretary Ed Miliband from the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, and Jonathan Reynolds MP, Secretary of State for Business and Trade, Sarah Jones, Minister for Industry, and Eluned Morgan, First Minister of Wales, for the valuable exchange. 📷: Jonathan Brad /PA Images / Alamy Stock Photo

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UK Energy Prices Pump as Supply Risks Loom: Gas, Power, and Renewables Face Winter Challenges - 30.09.24. Today’s UK energy market opened with modest gains in both gas and power prices. The NBP Day-Ahead gas price settled at 91.50 p/therm, reflecting a 1.70 p/therm increase from the previous session. This price movement is driven by concerns over supply constraints, with Norwegian production still facing challenges, particularly at Nybro and Kristin facilities. These issues, coupled with a lack of LNG regasification nominations, have tightened the UK system, which opened 12 mcm/day short this morning. Flows from Norway through Langeled are lower, and Vesterled is currently not exporting gas. The overall gas flow was measured at 290.5 mcm/day, the highest recorded exit nominations in over a month, yet the market remains wary as the risk of further supply disruptions continues, especially with winter approaching. In terms of storage, no withdrawals from medium-range storage (MRS) sites were observed, while Rough continues with steady injections. Warmer temperatures for early October are forecast, with a potential peak on October 6th, pushing temperatures nearly two degrees above seasonal norms. Windspeeds are predicted to stay above average early this week, offering a boost to renewable generation. However, a dip in wind generation is expected between October 2nd and 5th. The UK nuclear output remains below full capacity, and further reductions are expected, with output dropping to 4.0 GW by the weekend. Power prices saw similar upward momentum, with the Day-Ahead Base price settling at £76.80/MWh, a significant increase compared to Friday. Day-Ahead Peak prices were even more pronounced, rising to £86.01/MWh. Spot contracts saw the largest gains, driven by the weather forecast and ongoing concerns over gas supply. Looking ahead, power prices for Q125 continue to rise, with the market pricing in potential further supply squeezes as winter progresses. In the wider energy market, Brent crude oil for November delivery settled at $71.98 per barrel, ticking up by $0.38. Coal prices for delivery in 2025 also showed some movement, rising by $2.77 to $123.77/tonne, as global markets continue to balance supply and demand. As we head into October, market participants are preparing for the onset of colder weather and the increased demand that will follow. Supply risks from Norwegian fields and global LNG flows are being carefully monitored, while renewable generation, particularly wind, will play a critical role in offsetting these supply concerns. With temperatures expected to dip below average after October 8th, the balance of supply and demand in the UK energy market will likely tighten further. Traders and stakeholders will continue to watch geopolitical developments, weather forecasts, and the ongoing challenges in gas and power supply as we move towards the end of the year.

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#Energy markets in the UK are facing an interesting turn, with shifting weather conditions and fluctuating renewable output adding complexity to the landscape. Over the next week, temperatures are set to rise by 7°C, which could sharply reduce demand for heating. This shift is expected to create bearish pressure on UK gas contracts delivering in the coming days, as less energy will be required for heating across the nation. At the same time, the UK’s wind power generation is forecast to remain 10% below seasonal norms for week 38. This lower-than-expected wind output could result in bullish impacts on prompt UK energy prices, with increased demand for other generation sources to fill the gap. It’s a trend worth watching as we head into the colder months. The UK gas grid opened 10 mcm long this morning, and is projected to close in a similar position. This oversupply may contribute to a bearish sentiment in NBP pricing. The day-ahead gas price dropped by 2.34% to 86.21 p/th, reflecting this trend, while day-ahead power prices saw a sharp 5.89% increase, reaching £84.80/MWh, highlighting the volatility in power markets. As we approach the end of the year, contracts for Q4-24 gas and power have both seen declines, with gas down by 3.07% to 91.08 p/th and power falling by 2.40% to £80.04/MWh. Similarly, Q1-25 gas has dipped by 2.80%, indicating that the market is pricing in less risk as we move into the winter season. With shifting weather forecasts and uncertainty in renewable output, the energy market remains as dynamic as ever. Stay tuned for further developments in the UK energy market as we navigate these changes.

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Daily Energy Market Update – 6th September 2024 As we look ahead to next week, temperatures across Britain are forecast to dip significantly, with averages dropping as low as 4°C below seasonal norms. Expect temperatures to hover around 10°C, which could put upward pressure on UK gas prices. Colder weather typically drives higher heating demand, potentially increasing short-term market volatility. In contrast, wind power generation is set to exceed seasonal expectations by over 20% during the first part of next week. This surge in wind output may contribute to a bearish trend in prompt UK energy prices. However, as the week progresses, wind generation is expected to fall back in line with seasonal norms, which could stabilise the market by the latter half of the week. Globally, the energy landscape is also shifting. Egypt has announced plans to purchase 20 cargoes of LNG starting in October, marking its first imports of the fuel in years as it prepares for the winter season. This move could have a bullish impact on near-curve UK gas prices, as potential supplies might be diverted away from the European continent, tightening the market. In terms of pricing movements, Day-Ahead gas prices have seen a dip, trading at 85.90 p/th, a 3.14% decrease from the previous day. Power prices on the Day-Ahead market have also softened, currently at £76.18/MWh, down by 0.98%. Meanwhile, Brent Crude remains relatively steady at $72.69 per barrel. Looking at the UK gas grid, it is expected to end the day with a surplus of 4.44 million cubic meters (mcm). This oversupply could add further bearish pressure to the Within-Day National Balancing Point (NBP) contract, as market participants anticipate a well-supplied system in the near term. These shifts in temperature, wind generation, and global LNG demand are likely to drive key market movements in the coming week. For a more detailed view of the energy market or to discuss how these changes may affect your business, feel free to reach out to our trading desk.

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Daily Energy Market Update - September 2nd, 2024 Today’s UK energy market saw significant movements, particularly in both gas and power prices. The NBP Gas Day-Ahead price experienced a notable increase of 2.65%, reaching 94.79 p/th. This upward trend extended to key contracts such as October 2024, which rose by 2.07% to 96.15 p/th. These price movements reflect the current market dynamics and underlying factors influencing supply and demand. In the power market, UK Base Day-Ahead power prices surged dramatically, with a sharp increase of 42.56%, bringing the price to £91.97/MWh. Even more striking was the rise in peak power prices, which climbed by 56.12% to £93.50/MWh. These significant jumps in power prices can be attributed to several critical factors impacting the market this week. One of the primary drivers is the forecasted shortfall in wind power generation. This week, wind output is expected to fall over 20% below seasonal norms. As wind plays a crucial role in the UK's energy mix, this reduction in generation capacity is putting upward pressure on prompt energy prices, as the market anticipates a tighter supply-demand balance. Adding to the bullish sentiment in the gas market is the ongoing industrial maintenance in Norway, which is set to have a considerable impact on gas flows. With a reduction of 40 million cubic meters per day in Norwegian gas flows, the market is reacting with higher prices as supply tightens. Despite these factors, temperatures in Britain for the week are expected to align with seasonal norms. While this will likely have a limited impact on gas demand, the market is more focused on the supply-side constraints and the reduced wind generation that are driving prices higher. Looking at the broader energy complex, we see TTF Gas Day-Ahead prices inching up by 0.89% to €39.15/MWh, while the Front Month price rose by 2.43% to €39.82/MWh. On the global front, Brent Crude prices declined by 2.46%, now trading at $76.93 per barrel. Meanwhile, in the carbon markets, both UK and EU carbon prices saw minor declines, with UK carbon closing at £43.31 per tonne, down 2.61%. In summary, today’s energy market activity is shaped by a combination of reduced wind generation, significant Norwegian gas maintenance, and stable temperature forecasts. These factors are collectively driving the sharp increases we’ve seen in UK power and gas prices. As we move further into the week, it will be crucial to monitor how these elements continue to influence the market. Stay tuned for more updates, and as always, feel free to reach out with any questions or for deeper insights into these trends.

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Morning Briefing 11/09/2024 Day ahead (DA)/Intraday   ·Demand is currently at approx. 28.1GW and due to peak this evening at 33.7GW. ·DA markets auctioned between £10 - £112 yesterday for today. ·Baseload auctioned at @ £50.04 in the 1hr and £54.88 in the 30min auction. ·Wind generation is currently approx. 2GW under forecast at 11.9GW and meant to peak at 14.9GW later today before slowly dropping to 6.5GW tomorrow evening. Solar is due to peak at 6.7GW at midday. ·Current intraday power price at time of writing was £78.14/MWh with gas providing 11.4%/3.63GW, wind providing 48.0%/15.27GW, solar providing 7.6%/2.41GW and nuclear providing 15.3%/4.87GW of UK demand. ·DA gas is currently trading at 86.90p/th (2.97p/KWh) ·DA power is currently trading at £79.00/MWh (7.90p/KWh)   Month ahead (Oct 24) ·Oct NBP gas is currently up 1.18% at 85.58p/th (2.92p/KWh). ·Oct TTF gas is currently up 0.90% at €35.60MWh. ·Oct UK Baseload closed at £72.00/MWh (7.20p/KWh) ·UK gas prices fell to a 5 week low yesterday, with the DA down 4.21% with the slump seeming to be drive by the drop in oil prices which as helped to curb the cost of LNG in Asia. Along the curve, the Win24 was down 4.62% due to the bearish fundamentals and the news that Hurricane Francine appeared to be moving away from three key US LNG facilities.   ·UK power prices evolved differently, with the DA price climbing 40.96% due to the forecast drop in wind generation compared to Monday. Along the curve, the Win24 contract was down 3.42% with the gas sentiment and drop in the carbon market adding further pressure alongside the other bearish fundamentals. ·According to Gassco AS, there are no unplanned outages with total flows reduced due to planned maintenance at 192.8MSm. ·Oil prices are positive this morning, paring some of yesterdays losses, as concerns about Hurricane Francine disrupting output in the US outweighed worries about weak global demand.   ·Latest forecasts show temps to be a few degrees under seasonal norms for the coming days but then be back around norms at the weekend. ·There are currently 3 LNG cargoes due in the coming weeks. ·UK Gas prices as of Tuesdays close -  o   Month ahead 84.58p/th (2.89p/KWh) down 5.96% DoD* o   Q4 24 91.96p/th (3.14p/KWh) down 4.97% DoD o   Winter 24 95.55p/th (3.26p/KWh) down 4.62% DoD ·UK Power prices as of Tuesdays close – o   Month ahead £72.65/MWh (7.27p/KWh) down 4.22% DoD* o   Q4 24 £80.99MWh (8.10p/KWh) down 3.65% DoD o   Winter 24 £84.89MWh (8.49p/KWh) down 3.42% DoD *DoD = Day on Day All prices and info correct at time of writing. Eco Logic Partners Jason Gary Martin Karl Lucas David Jo Chart credit - e*star #energy #trading #power #gas #oil #renewables #lng #norway

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Latest data from Ofgem shows a continued increase in domestic energy debt: ➡️ New peak of £3.7bn ➡️ Second-highest in-quarter increase of £387m ➡️ Industry debt has increased for 7 consecutive quarters ~£243m per quarter ➡️ 74% (£2.8bn) total debt has no arrangement to repay in place ➡️ New peak average balance of £1,094 per customer Given the time lag in this data, this will only confirm what energy suppliers already see day-to-day but it really hits home when you start to dig in to the data and as suppliers get ready to support customers this coming winter.

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As of 7th October 2024, the UK energy market has opened with notable shifts in gas and power prices, reflecting both geopolitical uncertainty and supply-demand dynamics. UK natural gas prices rose slightly, with the NBP Day-Ahead contract settling at 97.80 pence per therm, a 2 pence increase from the previous session. This upward movement is partially attributed to ongoing unplanned maintenance at Norway's Troll gas field, as well as planned maintenance at other facilities. Total exit nominations have now reached over 300 million cubic meters per day, but despite bullish factors like strong Medium Range Storage injections and increased gas demand for power, market fundamentals remain largely bearish. Norwegian imports to the UK are flowing at 58 million cubic meters per day, while temperatures are forecasted to drop below seasonal averages starting 9th October, which could shift demand in the coming days. UK power prices have also experienced some volatility, with the Day-Ahead baseload price falling to £76.24 per MWh, a decrease of over £7 compared to the previous session. However, forward contracts, particularly for Q1-25, saw increases as prices for Nov-24, Dec-24, and Jan-25 edged up. The gas market’s influence, coupled with geopolitical tensions, continues to play a key role in shaping short-term price movements. Wind speeds are expected to remain above seasonal averages, except for the weekend, which could alleviate some of the pressure on power prices. On the global stage, Brent crude oil saw a modest increase, reaching $78.05 per barrel, reflecting market reactions to heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Ukraine. Coal prices for delivery in 2025 also surged to $127.79 per tonne, a sharp rise of nearly $5 as uncertainties in global supply chains persist. Meanwhile, EU carbon prices have dropped to a six-month low, standing at €62.05 per tonne, amid strong renewable energy output, reduced liquefied natural gas consumption, and macroeconomic concerns. Currency fluctuations have remained relatively stable, with the GBP/EUR exchange rate moving slightly to 1.1942 and GBP/USD holding steady at 1.3116. Looking ahead, the UK system remains 30 million cubic meters per day short as we start the week, with three LNG cargoes expected by 18th October. Windspeeds and temperatures are forecasted to fluctuate, potentially impacting both gas and power markets. The geopolitical landscape, particularly in the Middle East, remains a significant factor to watch, with the potential to drive further market volatility in the weeks ahead.

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While there are obviously big differences on each side of the pond, there are some big lessons that can be applied from UK experience with flexibility as we look to capture more value--and resilience--on the US grid.

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                 Morning Briefing 13/11/2024 Day ahead (DA)/Intraday   ·Demand is currently at approx. 38.9GW and due to peak this evening at 41.8GW. ·DA markets auctioned between £84 - £159 yesterday for today. ·Baseload auctioned at @ £113.00 in the 1hr and £111.24 in the 30min auction. ·Wind generation is currently at 4.0W and due to stay at similar levels throughout the day before climbing up to 13.5GW tomorrow. Solar is due to peak at 4.5GW at 11am. ·Current intraday power price at time of writing was £126.99/MWh with gas providing 59.2%/21.38GW, wind providing 14.7%/5.30GW, solar providing 2.4%/0.87GW and nuclear providing 13.3%/4.80GW of UK demand. ·DA gas is currently trading at 109.00p/th (3.72p/KWh) ·DA power is currently trading at £107.00/MWh (10.70p/KWh)   Month ahead (Dec 24) ·Dec NBP gas is currently down 1.90% at 110.29p/th (3.76p/KWh). ·Dec TTF gas is currently down 2.50% at €43.10MWh. ·Dec UK Baseload currently at £92.00/MWh (9.20p/KWh) ·UK gas prices were mixed yesterday, rising and falling throughout the day, with the DA price up 1.00% as some below normal temps gave some support to prices. Along the curve, the Q1 25 contract was up 1.53% as the increased gas demand for heating meant storage stocks were being withdrawn and kept the market on its toes.    ·UK power prices were also mixed, with the DA price down just 0.07% as forecast renewables and demand looked to stay at similar levels today. Along the curve, contracts were mixed, with the Q1 25 contract up 0.59% as the forecast of some colder weather next week, although the forecast of surging wind power helped to keep a lid on some prices. ·Ofgem has approved five undersea energy projects to enhance the UK’s clean energy and energy security, potentially positioning it as a net exporter by 2030 - three of them are interconnectors that will add nearly 3GW of capacity by linking the UK with Germany, Ireland, and Scotland ·According to Gassco AS, there are no unplanned outages this morning with total exports at 345.0mcm. ·Oil prices were slightly up this morning, underpinned by signs of near term supply tightness but held near their lowest in two weeks, a day after OPEC downgraded its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025.   ·Latest forecasts show potential for temps next week to be below seasonal norms. ·There are currently 3 LNG cargoes due by 25th November. ·UK Gas prices as of Tuesdays close -  o   Month ahead 112.43p/th (3.84p/KWh) up 1.69% DoD* o   Q1 25 111.96p/th (3.82p/KWh) up 1.53% DoD o   Summer 25 103.73p/th (3.54p/KWh) up 1.13% DoD ·UK Power prices as of Tuesdays close – o   Month ahead £92.30/MWh (9.23p/KWh) up 0.49% DoD* o   Q1 25 £95.43MWh (9.54p/KWh) up 0.59% DoD o   Summer 25 £80.18MWh (8.02p/KWh) down 0.11% DoD *DoD = Day on Day All prices and info correct at time of writing. Eco Logic Partners Jason Gary Martin Karl Lucas Jo David Chart - e*star #energy #trading #power #gas #lng #winter

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Winter Fears Loom as UK Energy Markets Surge - UK energy markets saw a strong upward trend today. Front-month UK Power surged by 2.29%, closing at £76.00. This rise is driven by growing demand forecasts and concerns over tightening supply as winter approaches. Market participants are closely watching how this will impact energy costs in the coming months. In the gas market, front-month NBP prices rallied, finishing at 89.95p, a 2.41% increase. The gas rally reflects uncertainty surrounding global LNG supplies, with particular attention on Europe’s storage levels. This rise is expected to continue if supply disruptions persist through the colder season. Carbon markets saw more mixed results, with December 2024 EUAs inching up to €66.54, a modest 0.06% gain. On the other hand, UKAs performed more strongly, closing at £42.52, a 1.84% rise. Industrial demand and expectations of tighter supply in the near term are supporting these gains in the carbon markets. Brent crude oil prices also experienced growth, closing at $71.50, a 0.62% increase. Oil markets remain volatile, with OPEC+ production cuts and global economic conditions continuing to affect prices. These factors, coupled with supply disruptions, are shaping a complex outlook for the remainder of the year. Globally, attention is focused on Australia’s Ichthys LNG plant, which remains at reduced capacity. With both liquefaction trains running below normal, full production is not expected until early November. This development is likely to put additional pressure on global LNG prices, especially in Asia and Europe. As winter approaches, energy traders will be keeping a close watch on supply conditions. Any further disruptions or demand spikes could push prices higher, making energy cost management critical in the months ahead. The market is bracing for a potentially volatile winter season.

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As of October 1, 2024, the UK energy market has entered a critical period as colder weather and tighter supply conditions push natural gas prices higher. The NBP Day-Ahead settled at 92.35 p/therm today, driven by falling temperatures across the UK and Europe, which are expected to remain below the five-year average for the rest of the week. With Norwegian gas exports holding steady and UKCS terminal receipts down, gas-for-power demand has surged in response to a forecasted decline in wind speeds throughout the week. Meanwhile, UK LNG send-outs have increased to 29 mcm/day, with the next LNG cargo from Qatar anticipated later this week to shore up supplies. On the forward curve, NBP front-month prices climbed modestly, with November 2024 contracts up by 0.96 p/therm to 97.36 p/therm, while December 2024 saw a rise of 0.77 p/therm to 99.36 p/therm. Curve prices continue to reflect market concerns around reduced LNG imports and the potential for increased demand as the winter period approaches, setting the stage for continued volatility. In the power market, UK Day-Ahead baseload prices fell to £71.78/MWh, a drop of £5.02 from the previous session, while peakload power rose to £88.09/MWh. The tightening of the power system, driven by reduced wind generation and increasing reliance on gas for power, suggests further upward pressure on power prices as the week progresses. Forward baseload contracts, particularly January 2025, have seen slight increases, with the contract settling at £90.15/MWh, up by £0.75. As renewable output declines and colder weather takes hold, higher demand for gas-fired power generation is likely to fuel further price hikes. European gas storage levels remain robust, standing at 94.28% as reported by AGSI, offering some cushion for the winter months. However, risks tied to LNG supply reductions and planned outages at key Norwegian gas facilities could exacerbate market tightness. These developments highlight the importance of closely monitoring supply flows as winter approaches. In the global commodities market, Brent crude futures for November 2024 eased slightly by $0.21, settling at $71.77/bbl. Market sentiment remains cautious amid global economic uncertainties, contributing to softening oil prices. On the carbon market, EUA December 2024 prices dropped by €0.77 to settle at €65.56/tonne, while UK ETS contracts also saw a slight decline, closing at £36.45/tonne. These shifts come against the backdrop of ongoing discussions on the future of emissions reductions and energy transition strategies across Europe, which could have further implications for carbon pricing in the coming months. As we move further into October, the market will be focused on how sustained cooler temperatures and reduced wind generation will impact both gas and power prices. LNG cargo arrivals and any potential disruptions to Norwegian gas flows will also be key factors shaping market dynamics in the days ahead.

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It was announced yesterday that Constellation is very close to closing a deal to purchase Calpine. This is potentially a very big deal across the energy spectrum, and I can’t help but think of the impacts on companies like Nationwide Energy Partners.   From what I’m reading the growth in PE investments in energy would pay off greatly for Calpine’s private equity investors.   This brings greater diversity to Constellation's fleet and adds some unique behind the meter solutions from Calpine. As a procurement and energy services advisor to multi-family property owners in the US, Nationwide Energy Partners helps our clients with advanced behind the meter energy solutions including private grids. I wonder if Constellation’s move will bring greater options in products combining these two powerhouses (pun intended). And if that will give NEP more options for providing an attractive grid supportive resource to our clients.   As a leader in multi-family energy advisory solutions, we will be watching to see if what they do will help us better serve our clients. Will this newly combined super duo unlock new solutions for our customers?   While this Calpine deal is a big step for Constellation, this is far from the last one I expect we will see for investors and the energy industry in 2025. It will be very interesting to watch where we go from here.  

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We have today launched our annual Gas Winter Outlook. Each year, this report outlines how we see the gas system’s capacity in Great Britain, as well as pressure points and overall resilience for the upcoming winter. We expect gas demand will remain similar to last year. Great Britain's diverse and flexible gas supplies position us well to manage the colder weather ahead. What remains paramount is the role gas plays in our energy system. Our report found that last year, gas accounted for over 50% of Great Britain’s electricity generation between high-demand periods like late November to early December. As we work towards incorporating renewables and other sources of green energy into our wider energy system, gas’ vital role in the energy system cannot be understated, as it continues to prove essential in providing businesses and industries with the energy they need. Working closely with our cross-industry partners, I am confident in our abilities at National Gas to deliver the energy Great Britain needs this winter – keeping the lights on, industries fuelled and homes warm. Gas remains critical in this effort as we transition towards cleaner alternatives. #SecuringBritainsEnergy Read the full report here: https://lnkd.in/eC6WFgXf

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Today’s UK energy market opened with a balanced outlook in the gas sector, yet influences from lower wind output and ongoing nuclear outages are making waves across the power market. As of October 29th, UK gas prices at the National Balancing Point (NBP) settled at 106.70 p/therm, holding steady amid stable domestic production and consistent Norwegian flows. Production from the Norwegian Continental Shelf is expected to rise over the next few days as the final stages of maintenance wrap up, ensuring that gas supplies remain robust despite lower-than-average wind speeds forecasted for the coming weeks. Power prices for the Day-Ahead UK base shot up to £107.89/MWh, driven in part by a reduction in wind generation and maintenance outages impacting nuclear capacity and interconnectors. These outages have placed extra reliance on gas-fired power generation to meet demand. Notably, Torness 1 is scheduled for a return on November 3rd, while additional nuclear units offline for planned and unplanned maintenance are expected back in late November and early December, which should alleviate some pressure on power generation. Brent crude oil prices continue to reflect the subdued risk outlook in the Middle East, settling today at $71.42/bbl. This retreat, down from last week, is partially due to moderated geopolitical tensions and a lack of targeted energy infrastructure strikes. Coal prices have also softened, with ARA CIF for Calendar Year 2025 now at $124.46/tonne, tracking lower alongside a broad dip in oil. Carbon markets remain elevated with EUA Dec 2024 prices at €66.40/tonne. In the currency market, the pound showed minimal movement against both the euro and the dollar, standing at 1.2006 GBP/EUR and 1.2971 GBP/USD. As we move toward winter, expect gas and power prices to remain sensitive to weather forecasts, especially with anticipated colder temperatures and low wind patterns that could drive demand for gas-fired generation. With further LNG cargoes scheduled for arrival, including three en route to the UK and additional volumes bound for Northwest Europe, supply security remains strong. However, power market participants will be watching closely as the return of key nuclear units could impact pricing dynamics and reduce gas-burn requirements for electricity. Today’s market activity highlights the critical role of inter-fuel dynamics as the UK navigates seasonal demand pressures and renewable variability, with global events continuing to subtly steer sentiment. Stay tuned for further updates as the week unfolds.

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Daily UK Energy Market Update - 20th August 2024 Gas Market: On the back of yesterday's session, UK NBP spot prices surged, closing at 88.95 p/therm - up by 9.45 p/therm from the previous day. The spike was largely driven by processing issues at the Gullfaks field on the Norwegian Continental Shelf and low liquidity across European hubs. Despite a projected decrease in demand by 7 mcm/day, supply constraints continue to tighten the market, particularly with upcoming maintenance on Norwegian assets expected to further limit output. Looking ahead, NBP contracts for September 2024 slightly edged up to 96.13 p/therm, while Q4-2024 and Q1-2025 contracts saw marginal declines, highlighting ongoing concerns about geopolitical risks and the approaching winter season. Power Market: UK day-ahead power prices dropped to £54.94/MWh, reflecting a £9.30/MWh decrease. The market experienced mixed movements, with short-term contracts witnessing gains and seasonal contracts mostly declining. Wind generation is expected to peak this week with forecasts suggesting 15,000 MWh/h of capacity on 22nd August, but a drop below seasonal norms is anticipated for next week. Brent Oil & Coal: Brent Crude remains steady at $77.66/bbl while coal prices, for the ARA CIF Cal Y+1, are recorded at $129.19/tonne. Carbon Markets: Carbon prices dipped slightly, with the EUA Dec 2024 closing at €73.14/tonne. The market is cautiously observing the balance between industrial demand and the regulatory outlook as we move closer to the end of the year. Currency: The GBP/EUR exchange rate is currently at 1.1731, which might influence energy imports in the short term. In summary, today's energy market landscape reflects a complex interplay of supply disruptions, demand forecasts, and the broader geopolitical environment. As we approach winter, market participants remain cautious, balancing short-term volatility with long-term strategic planning. Stay tuned for more updates.

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What are you paying for? Third Party Costs (TPCs) now make up 59% of your energy bill. Understand the outlook for each of the key TPCs, plus the impact of commodities on energy bills, in our new Electricity Prices Explained summary guide 👉 https://lnkd.in/dThsAVxb Drax Energy Solutions

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December 5th , 2024UK - The UK energy markets this morning opened to a mix of supply confidence and price fluctuations. Day-ahead gas prices at the National Balancing Point (NBP) settled at 116.25 pence per therm, marking a further softening from yesterday’s levels. This decline stems from warmer-than-seasonal temperatures and a strong LNG sendout, which continues to support supply security. UK power prices also followed the downward trend, with day-ahead baseload electricity closing at £93.48/MWh, reflecting a notable drop of £29.41 compared to the previous session. The easing was driven by declining gas prices and increased renewable contributions. Wind generation is projected to peak at 18 GW later this week, highlighting the continued variability in renewable output. In broader markets, Brent crude slipped to $72.31/bbl, while carbon prices saw modest decreases, with EUAs trading at €67.86/tonne. The UK ETS price remained steady at £36.31/tonne, signaling stability amidst a backdrop of shifting energy dynamics. Looking ahead, a colder weather pattern is expected to approach, potentially increasing energy demand. However, the substantial inflow of LNG cargoes to the UK, combined with elevated Norwegian gas nominations, positions the system well to navigate the upcoming winter challenges. Additionally, the return of a 0.6 GW nuclear unit to the grid provides further support, helping ease reliance on gas-fired power generation. Currency movements were minimal, with GBP/EUR at 1.2073 and GBP/USD at 1.2702, showing slight upticks amid steady trading. Stay tuned as we continue monitoring these developments and their implications for UK energy markets.

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