Timothy Ash

Quite an intresting discussion. My takes are: 1) it merits the focus on both central projection with an equal emphasis of alternative one or two scenarios; 2) it is an advantageous to communicate future policy rate path, and alternative endogenous policy rate path should the risks under scenarios materialise (accompanied by clear and concise baseline and scenario assumptions); 3) the modelling approach ought to be based on small central model that capture key macroeconomic linkages, with various specific satelite models for indept analysis of specific sectors and markets, "too" big model ought be avoided (this is an opposite of what Bernanke's suggestions); 4) judgements is equally important rather than mainly relying on model based projections, but judgements need to be framed within the model structure and interlinkages (the impression of Bernanke's report is as if the Bank of England rely solely on model based forecasting, which i sincerely do not think so, my guess is that the assumptions used for forecasting were inaccurate and were not adequately revised); 5) not withstanding the above, to note Goodhart's view that in no way one could measure likelihood and uncertainty of some risks such as political, fiscal and debt crisis risks (in other words, implicitly policy making would continue to be subject to unpredictably mistakes) 👌

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Octopus.ac announces integration with UKRI-funded Areas of Research Interest (ARI) database https://lnkd.in/eTzTsvfa Collaboration aimed at "a much broader base of research and researchers being involved in policy-making, and easier global sharing of policy-relevant insights" Jisc Government Office for Science Research England UK Research and Innovation

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While many policymakers in the UK are naturally inclined to push back on this notion, the evidence is already compelling (and getting more so): From inadequate growth and inequality to deteriorating public services, high debt and more … understanding and solving the UK’s mounting economic problems require more of a developing country mindset — that is, one that is open to careful analysis of structural rigidities, and one that resists the behavioral bias of simply thinking of them as cyclical challenges that can be addressed without deep first- and second-generation structural reforms.   #economy #uk #growth #debt #inequality #Productivity

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interesting event with the bond vigilantes .. we step into a phase of lower interest rates, which should motivate more issuances, but debts are so far up that investors are wary of default risk. Eventually, it could pan out with bond issuers not being able to take full advantage of lower rates; maybe some undersubscription risk as well

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📢 The TPI company universe has doubled to 2,000! The Transition Pathway Initiative (TPI) Centre at the The London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) has released the new assessments under the TPI Management Quality (MQ) Framework. We added 1,002 companies to the TPI universe, now totalling 2,000, a new major milestone. The coverage now extends to 24 sectors, up from 17 in 2023. Key highlights: 👉 Companies are still at the stage of integrating climate change into operational decision-making: more than a half (55%) of the TPI company universe are on MQ Level 3, for the second consecutive year. 👉 Disclosure on the quantification of transition plans and alignment of company climate ambitions and capital expenditure plans is poor: no more than 10% of the TPI company universe score on any Level 5 indicator, and none on all Level 5 indicators. #Learnmore: 🖥️ The new data are available on the TPI Tool online at https://lnkd.in/dB_vxwMX 📊 Check the presentation with a summary of the main results https://lnkd.in/dhkEFBtz With thanks to Simon Dietz (TPI Centre Research Director), Robert Ingham, Jon Ward who worked to produce the data and the TPI data partner FTSE Russell, An LSEG Business. #climatechange #responsibleinvestment #governance #climatecrisis Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change & the Environment

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The aim of the Roadmap is to put forward an investor and solutions-focused perspective on some of the key public policy priorities to boost low-carbon investment in the UK for the next five years. Read more in 'Boosting low-carbon investment in the UK: A Policy Roadmap' 📖 https://bit.ly/4bWJ2uw #LowCarbon #UKEconomy #Policy

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Inspiring to see The Rt Hon David Lammy showing such clarity and leadership on the global climate crisis in his first set piece as UK Foreign Secretary: "today, I am committing to you that while I am Foreign Secretary, action on the climate and nature crisis will be central to all that the Foreign Office does". Three priorities outlined: 1. building a Global Clean Power Alliance, mobilising global investment; 2. unlocking more climate and nature finance through COP and by deeper commitment and innovation in Development Finance; 3. reversing the decline in global biodiversity. Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office British International Investment https://lnkd.in/euFzYN2z

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Today is the start of London Climate Week 2024 - the biggest ever. Kicking off at the Institutional Investors Group on Climate Change (IIGCC) Net Zero Summit, with a keynote from Fatih Birol, Executive Director at the International Energy Agency (IEA). Key takeaways: 💰$2 trillion was invested last year in clean energy and grids ($500bn in solar alone), vs $1 trillion in fossil fuels - but only 4% of oil and gas sector investments are in clean energy. 🗺️ Only 15% of clean energy and grid investment is in emerging markets, where two-thirds of the global population live. The Netherlands generates more solar power than the whole of sun-drenched Sun-Saharan Africa, where half of the population has no access to electricity. 🤝 Energy, climate and trade policy is becoming increasingly interwoven. A balance must be struck, and election results around the world may adjust the speed of transition in some geographies, but the global direction of travel toward clean energy is absolutely clear.

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A recurring theme, global long term yields are rising. Unfortunaley global home building and commercial real estate will bear the brunt of this via higher mortgage rates. It is now a race for prudent governments to bring deficits under control, not central bankers to cut interest rates. #bondyeilds #interestrates #governmentdeficits

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In its analysis of the U.K. Government’s investment summit The Times features Apella Advisors’ Find Out Now polling on public attitudes to private investment. https://lnkd.in/eDU8pFkh Apella polling finds solid support for the use of private investment in infrastructure, transport, energy and even education and health. We find that 58% of voters favour private investment in the public realm. However, the British public have doubts about investment from overseas. We find that 62% of voters believe that the Government should only seek investment from U.K.-based investors. That’s at odds with ministers’ drive to attract global investors. And it’s hard to reconcile with the reality of extensive existing international investment in Britain. •Ministers wanting to make Britain more attractive to international investment should do more to explain its benefits to voters. •International investors should be mindful that British public opinion - and thus policymakers - will not always be sympathetic to their choices. To learn more about Apella’s data-led analysis of the role of private capital in the U.K., get in touch with me or Dr Mike Granleese.

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Green bond markets have come a long way over the recent years. Regulations, principles and practices sharpened, issuers learnt the ropes and ramped up their placements while investors’ awareness of greenwashing and their appetite for bonds of sound standard rose markedly. Against this dynamic backdrop, EBRD's Independent Evaluation Department (IEvD) is pleased to share our new evaluation of the EBRD’s Green Bond Investments (2017-2022). In this five-year period, the Bank made 42 investments in 42 green bonds – building a €1.25 billion portfolio. This report aims to provide an independent, candid and evidenced take on the EBRD’s role in fostering the development of the nascent green bond markets in the countries where it operates. It examines the extent to which the Bank bolstered progress by acting as an anchor investor, how it operated, what worked well and what didn’t (and why). It draws on a granular EBRD data on green bond investments – offering a rare insight into MDBs' role as investors, rather than solely green bond issuers. The report may be of interest to evaluators and sustainable finance practitioners – whether from private or public organisations – and for those directly involved in trades or the wider ecosystem. The full document is available here ▶️: https://lnkd.in/gBDH_ZBn   I would like to thank my outstanding co-author Regina Husakova, our two external experts RAYMOND SEAGER and Jérôme Kisielewicz, as well as Agnieszka Smoleńska, PhD and Andreas Hoepner who peer-reviewed the evaluation report. #EBRD #EIB #ADB #AfDB #evaluation #climatefinance #GreenBonds #EnvironmentalFinance #Sustainability

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For those interested in green bonds markets and how International Financial Institutions #IFIs are supporting them through investments and policy engagement, this is a must read. #IEvD 's first evaluation of EBRD 's investments in #green bonds by Oskar Andruszkiewicz and Regina Husakova

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Latest piece by Phil Aldrick for Bloomberg News outlines Labour's plan to potentially loosen the UK's strict fiscal rules, allowing for increased borrowing to support infrastructure and climate investments. It cites a new report by Thomas Aubrey, Bennett Institute Affiliated Researcher, which recommends using public development corporations and private funding to achieve ambitious housing targets and enhance connectivity. Read the article: archive.ph/9yCbg Read the report: https://lnkd.in/eXsAVEh5

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'Researchers for the banking on climate chaos report, now in its 15th edition, analysed the world’s top 60 banks’ underwriting and lending to more than 4,200 fossil fuel firms and companies causing the degradation of the Amazon and Arctic. Those banks, they found, gave $6.9tn in financing to oil, coal and gas companies, nearly half of which – $3.3tn – went towards fossil fuel expansion. Even in 2023, two years after many large banks vowed to work towards lowering emissions as part of the Net Zero Banking Alliance, bank finance for fossil fuel companies was $705bn, with $347bn going towards expansion, the report says. US banks were the biggest financiers of the fossil fuel industry, contributing 30% of the total $705bn provided in 2023, the report found. JP Morgan Chase gave the most of any bank in the world, providing $40.8bn to fossil fuel companies in 2023, while Bank of America came in third. The world’s second biggest financier of fossil fuels was the Japanese bank Mizuho, which provided $37.1bn.' https://lnkd.in/eZuzYNZC

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🇬🇧 Do today’s power brokers continue to be born to privilege and anointed at Eton and Oxford? Or is a new progressive elite emerging with different values and political instincts? 🎩 In search of an answer, Aaron Reeves and Sam Friedman from the Department of Sociology, LSE scrutinised the profiles, interests, and careers of over 125,000 members of the British elite from the late 1890s to today. 🔎 Their findings offer an insight into who gets in, how they get there, what they like and look like, where they go to school, and what politics they perpetuate.

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The issue of national or regional net-zero transition pathways and the role that governments and policy can (or cannot) play in supporting such a change are becoming ever more prominent. There has not been one event that I have attended so far as part of #LondonClimateActionWeek where it has not been mentioned. ASCOR (Assessing Sovereign Climate-related Opportunities and Risks), the new tool developed by the Transition Pathway Initiative (TPI) Centre at the The London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), in collaboration with leading investors and investor networks, can start helping sovereign bondholders framing these considerations in their investment decisions, as well as helping investors in corporate equities and debt with more insights about country climate action. Register for the webinar exploring ASCOR use cases to learn more, as we discuss with Víctor González C. (Head of the Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance - Chile), Matthew Graves (Western Asset Management), Tom Arup (Principles for Responsible Investment) and Barbara Oldani (Sustainability-Linked Sovereign Debt Hub (SSDH)), with an introduction by Victoria Barron (Co-chair of the ASCOR project). 📅 Tuesday, 2 July 2024 ⏰ 16:00 BST (London time) 👉 https://lnkd.in/dtmugD-C Adam Matthews, Claudia Gollmeier, Esther Law, Rory Sullivan, Udo Riese, Antonina Scheer, Johannes Honneth #ESG #Responsibleinvesting #sovereign #bonds #climatechange #netzero

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📺 Great to join Sally Bundock on BBC News news this morning to discuss our expectations for today's #ECB meeting, which should result in the first cut in interest rates since 2016. 💡 We also discussed the recent spike up in European gas prices caused by supply issues from Norway. Any country/region that is reliant on imported energy will be susceptable to volatility, and so the ECB is unlikely to react to such short-term issues in its decision making. #eurozone #interestrates #macroeconomics #financialmarkets #euro

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