All eyes are on the Southeastern Conference now.
With the Atlantic Coast Conference making its big move Wednesday announcing an 11-game football schedule, three of the Power 5 conferences have now established their 2020 plans.
The SEC should be the next domino to fall. [It was: SEC moves to conference-only 2020 schedule, pushes back start of season]
The league’s 14 presidents and chancellors are meeting remotely today to discuss football scheduling options. There is traction behind a 10-game conference-only schedule, as Sports Illustrated reported Wednesday, though nothing can be finalized until the presidents vote. The league’s presidents don’t have to make any big decisions on Thursday; in fact, the conclusion could be to kick the decision back a week to weigh more information. However, there was a growing sense around the league that some decision should come by the end of the week.
Will it be a 10-game conference-only schedule?
In talking to sources around the SEC on Wednesday, no one was willing to completely rule out the SEC adopting a 10 + 1 hybrid scheduling approach like the ACC that would give each SEC school one non-conference game. There are at least a couple of schools in the SEC's East division that would like to see that happen to maintain in-state rivalry games with ACC schools.
Along those lines, it is worth noting the president of the SEC (Kentucky's Dr. Eli Capilouto) and vice president (Georgia's Jere Morehead) both represent schools that have important in-state rivalry games.
AL.com first reported on July 9 that the feeling around the SEC was it’d end up following the Big Ten’s conference-only path. Sources around the league were upset the Big Ten made that call so soon and felt it backed the SEC into a corner to follow suit. The conference has now had weeks to debate the best option, with a consensus among the ADs, albeit not unanimous, building around a 10-game conference-only schedule.
If the SEC moves to a 10-game conference-only approach, the schools already have a good sense of the additional conference opponents they’ll have to face, according to sources. There is still time for adjustment, but the expectation is that in that scenario, the conference will keep its divisions and add two cross-divisional opponents to each school’s schedule.
RELATED: AL.com’s SEC behind-the-scenes power players you need to know
Why a conference-only approach?
There are multiple reasons why a conference-only schedule makes a lot of sense to SEC leaders. Most importantly, it allows the conference to control all the primary factors. The league can establish uniform protocols, especially around COVID-19 testing, that all schools have to follow. There will likely be some standardized protocols among the Power 5 conference, but there could still be differences in policies from conference to conference.
Next, if a game must be canceled or postponed, which most insiders view as likely at some point, it is easier to handle all the ramifications of that in-conference than coordinate with another conference. We've already seen how much the FBS conferences struggle to get on the same page in the rollout of these scheduling plans. Eliminating that aspect would give the SEC a lot more flexibility and a lot fewer potential headaches.
Become an Alabama Insider: Sign up here for $4.99 a month to get news first, chat directly with AL.com beat writers
What are the presidents considering when making a decision?
The SEC's presidents and chancellors get recommendations from their athletic directors, but ultimately the decision falls on them. Some will do what their AD tells them to do; others will go rogue. Consider it this way: The further you move away from the football field, the more the considerations might change. A football coach only has to worry about the football team. An athletic director has to worry about every team. A university president has to worry about everything on the campus. Just because the ADs lean one way doesn't mean the presidents will do the same.
That said, the sense around the SEC for weeks has been its leaders will do everything possible to play a fall football season. The coronavirus, of course, significantly influences that decision when considering whether it will be safe to do so. It’s also worth noting that any decision that presidents might make is still subject to change. Figuring out the scheduling model is a big step, but there will be more hurdles to overcome to successfully pull off a 2020 fall season.
I recently asked SEC president Dr. Capilouto what he and his peers would be closely paying attention to ahead of this decision. As part of his answer, Capilouto said, “Will we have our infrastructure and responses ready? Will we have adequate prevention interventions in place? Those are the things I’ll look for across all of our universities and the communities in which we reside.”
What are the implications of the SEC's decision?
If the SEC moves to a conference-only approach, it could force the ACC and Big 12 to follow. If there’s no chance for in-state rivalry games like Florida-Florida State, the ACC could drop its non-conference plan. The Big 12 would like to have a non-conference aspect, according to reports, though it would lose marquee games like Texas-LSU and Oklahoma-Tennessee. Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby has told multiple reporters that the Power 5 conferences don’t need to all have the same plan but they must be compatible. Would it really be worth it to the Big 12 to be the only Power 5 conference trying to play 12 games? To be determined.
It would also impact the Group of 5 conferences which typically get big paydays from SEC schools. Alabama, for instance, is contracted to pay a combined $3.55 million this season to get Georgia State, Kent State and Tennessee-Martin to travel to Bryant-Denny Stadium. All of those games would be off the table and could trigger the force majeure clause in those game contracts. The Group of 5 conferences have been waiting to see what the Power 5 ones decide first, but may have no choice but to follow along if all their big non-conference games get wiped off the schedule.
The SEC’s decision will not only directly impact multiple games, but has the potential to shift multiple conferences’ plans.
John Talty is the sports editor and SEC Insider for Alabama Media Group. You can follow him on Twitter @JTalty.