BRAND IDENTITY
The Six-Legged Dog: Eni's brand identity and history
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Outlook 2025
Strong fundamentals across all business areas with Transition and Transformation strategy accelerating. CCUS satellite intent in 2025. Growing energy supply and lowering emissions. Strengthened financial framework with gross capex reduced and strong positive impact from portfolio management. Leverage outlook lowered. Enhanced shareholder payout and commitment to growing dividend.
- E&P: full-year hydrocarbon production is expected to be around 1.7 mln boe/d at the forecast average Brent price of 75 $/bbl.
- GGP: proforma adjusted EBIT for the full year is expected to be €0.8 bln, in line with the previous year's guidance, with the potential to increase above €1 bln in the event of positive negotiation outcomes and favorable market conditions. GGP will continue to focus on maximizing margins on the gas supply portfolio.
- Enilive: expectation of proforma adjusted EBITDA around €1 bln for the full year. Regulatory and mandate impacts over 2025-26 will help to absorb the current surplus of biofuels and support margins.
- Plenitude: proforma adjusted EBITDA is expected above €1.1 bln, while installed renewable capacity to reach 5.5 GW by 2025 year-end (+34% vs the previous year).
Eni financial model supports the execution of our strategy across the cycle, providing financial resilience, alignment of capital, demonstration of value creation and returns to our shareholders
- For 2025, we expect an adjusted CFFO before working capital of €13 bln(1).
- Even though 2024 was such a successful year for divestments and despite the pressures of cost inflation and a stronger USD, net capex is expected to be in the range of €6.5-€7 bln.
Shareholder Returns: enhanced distribution for 2025 with between 35-40% of expected CFFO. Dividend per share up 5% vs 2024
- For 2025 Eni announced: an annual dividend of €1.05/share, a 5% increase versus 2024, and a share buyback programme of €1.5 bln, reflecting the expectations on scenario and the performance of the business.
- The share buyback is a flexible tool. We intend to use our financial flexibility in lower than planned scenario and any CFFO shortfall to deliver the target buyback. While in case of better than planned CFFO outcomes, we will allocate up to 60% of incremental cash to additional purchases. Additionally, if the disposal plan is more material than planned, we could decide to further increase the percentage of CFFO distribution.
Positive contribution from portfolio management; leverage expected to decline
- Eni has made significant positive steps in portfolio in 2024 achieving divestments quicker and for better value than we expected in our previous plan.
- Proforma leverage at 2024 was 15% and we expect leverage to remain in the range 10-20%, averaging 16% over 2025-28, 5 percentage points lower than previous Plan.
The above-described outlook is a forward-looking statement based on information to date and management’s judgement and is subject to the potential risks and uncertainties of the scenario.
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- (1) 2025 Scenario is: Brent 75 $/bbl; SERM 4.7 $/bbl; PSV 44.4 €/MWh and average EUR/USD exchange rate at 1.05.
Last update: 27 February 2025
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