"Educated Guess" covers a very hard hitting topic that is also not easy to talk about or explore. It doesn't sound like new territory for 'Law and Order: Special Victims Unit', especially considering what 'Special Victims Unit' is all about (or at least meant to be) but in the show's prime the show did it very well. Remember on first watch being generally impressed by it, particularly the ending and the performance of Gia despite being unsure at the start.
My first watch feelings are pretty much the same now. "Educated Guess" is still a very good and impressive episode. It may not be one of the best episodes of 'Special Victims Unit' as an overall whole, but it is to me one of the better episodes of the first half of Season 13 and towards the better end of the season too. Despite not loving everything about it, it does feel more like early seasons 'Special Victims Unit', so all about the case and the people involved with it, than the "lost its identity" and "forgotten what the show is all about" quality of too many of the latter seasons episodes. Where personal lives and multiple episode story arcs (a few feeling over-milked) took over too much and where it felt like the show was running out of ideas.
It doesn't get off to the greatest of starts. It did feel on the slow side to begin with and the opening has always struck me as on the over the top side.
Am also starting to find the detectives' exaggerated promises regarding getting to the truth and convictions rather grating, sure they have good intentions and trying to be sympathetic but it's also giving the victim potentially false hope. Especially seeing as they have done it when what they promise doesn't happen, absolutely completely bought and agreed with Gia's doubt.
The supporting cast however are very good, especially an excellent Natasha Lynn as Gia, a very rootable character for anybody who has been there and has felt or witnessed her pain and fear and conviction of not being believed. She is also one of those characters that is likely to inspire victims to come forward. The regulars do strong work too, Mariska Hargitay always delivered up to this point and many times since and is suitably sympathetic and steely. It was great to see more of Richard Belzer after too long. Munch is on great form, being witty and in a controlled way.
Furthermore, "Educated Guess" has a compelling story that shocks at the end (did suspect a little but didn't realise it was as bad as it turned out) and resonates emotionally. The dialogue doesn't ramble and probes thought. The supporting characters are well written and interesting, particularly Gia. It is shot with the right amount of intimacy without being claustrophobic and that the editing has become increasingly tighter over-time has been great too. The music doesn't get intrusive or overwrought, even when the episode gets more dramatic. The direction doesn't try to do too much and is understated but never flat or unsure when the episode picks up.
Summarising, very good. 8/10.
