Inverness Capital

TNT! Trumps New Tariffs March has felt like a full month thus far, yet it’s only been 3 weeks. We have had one of the fastest declines in equities in the last 10 years. Peak to trough, S&P 500 was down over 10%, Dow declined 9% Nasdaq fell nearly 14%, and Russell 2000 dropped 14%. Even credit markets have underperformed, with spreads widening by anywhere from 25 to well over 100 basis points and some really ugly performance in certain names such as Hertz down as much as 15 points in a matter of 1 week. The moves have been exacerbated by selling pressure from a handful of managers who were caught severely offsides by Trump's tariff escalation and were liquidated. The Fed has reduced it's growth expectations, increased its inflation outlook, and increased its unemployment outlook, while consumer confidence and sentiment is softening along with CEOs expectations of corporate earnings. This leaves the market in a place of wider spreads and lower equity multiples, starting the early stages of consolidation. April 2 will be the first milestone that will determine what's bluster and what's real (our view is Canada and Mexico tariffs will be minimal, but others will not be), followed by a May timeframe for a "Big Beautiful Reconciliation Bill" addressing immigration, deficits, regulation, and taxes. In the background we also have DOGE and the administration working to end the Russia Ukraine and Israel Hamas conflicts, which could bring us to a resolution on a number of fronts culminating in what we believe will be a June rate cut. Once the market can start to get its arms around all these factors and the smoke finally clears, dispersion will have likely accelerated, leaving us with ample opportunities in our favored sectors while remaining flat or short troubled industries. We also expect a ramp up in M&A and a bit of a pickup in inflation as the economy potentially accelerates into the second half of 2025, reinforcing the need for a Fed policy of reasonably "Higher For Longer". AARP - all about rates positioning!

To all of the amazing women leaders at the Hedge Fund Association may you continue to break barriers, lift others up, and achieve greatness. Lauri K. Goodwyn Deloris Dunk-Vickers, CPA, Krista Oldfield, Leanne Golding, Jodi Abramowitz Schwimmer, Alice Lyu, Yolanda Perez, Jennifer Keeney, Deirdre Brennan #IWD2025 #InternationalWomensDay

Women founders! In honor of Women’s History Month, Private Equity Career LLC is pleased to highlight a selection of women who founded North American buyout, private credit and growth equity firms. For a more complete list, check out our Guide to PE/VC Firms Founded by Women/Minorites/Veterans: https://lnkd.in/e-jPTwg2 **** Maggie Arvedlund, CEO and Managing Partner, Turning Rock Partners **** Ursula Burns, Founder, Integrum **** The late Kara Cissell-Roell, Managing Director and Co-Founder, VMG Capital Partners **** Kerstin Dittmar, Founder and Managing Partner, L2 Point **** Heather Faust, Managing Partner, Argand Partners **** Jeri Harman, Founder and Chairman, Avante Capital Partners **** Megan (McPherson) Horvath, Co-Founder and Partner, Tremont Growth Partners **** Azra Kanji, Founder and Partner, Astira Capital Partners **** Tiffany Kosch, Managing Partner, CenterGate Capital **** Rachel Lehman, Founder and Managing Partner, P4G Capital Management **** Lauren Leichtman, Founding Partner, Levine Leichtman Capital Partners, LLC Capital Partners **** Lisa Melchior, Founder and Managing Partner, Vertu Capital **** Lauren Mulholland, Co-Founder, Partner, MiddleGround Capital **** Michelle Noon, Found and Managing Partner, Clearhaven Partners **** Adele (Cirone) Oliva, Founding Partner, 1315 Capital **** Nancy Phillips, Co-Founder and Managing Partner, Rallyday Partners **** Sherrese Clarke Soares, Founder, CEO, HarbourView Equity Partners (tagline: “Content is Queen”) **** Mary Tolan, Founder and Managing Partner, Chicago Pacific Founders **** Sarah Woefel, Co-Founder, CULT Capital **** Suzanne Yoon, Founder and Managing Partner, Kinzie Capital Partners LP Partners #diversity #DEI #privateequity #privatecredit #growthequity #women Illustration by Dall-E2 Mark Hopkins Howard D. Morgan John Kenney Michael Koby Lewis Schoenwetter Jon Van Tuin

I am proud to share that I am leveraging my fundraising expertise to aid the Sustainable Ocean Alliance (SOA). #Fundraising #SustainableOcean #SupportingChange

𝐌𝐚𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐖𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐬: 𝐓𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐤 𝐨𝐫 𝐓𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐭? “Is it better to be feared or to be loved?” asked Machiavelli in his political treatise 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘗𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘤𝘦 over 500 years ago. Americans, it would seem, have chosen the latter: Last year, US consumers spent about twice as much on Valentine’s Day as Halloween, according to the NRF. Putting that aside, this year’s arrival of Halloween got us thinking about one of the credit market's favorite boogiemen – the “looming maturity wall.”   In the aftermath of the GFC, and about every six or seven years since, the high yield bond and leveraged loan markets have become fixated on an approaching maturity wall lurking over the horizon. In each case, these fears have followed a now predictable pattern: Companies steadily chip away at their debt stack by extending loans and refinancing bonds, at which point the market eventually forgets that there ever was an impending “crisis” in the first place.    On its face, the 2024/25 maturity wall has followed a similar blueprint. At the end of 2022, nearly $700 billion of U.S. high yield bonds and leveraged loans were set to mature over the next three years. Today, that figure sits below $100 billion as most issuers have successfully rolled their near-dated maturities.   However, there have been some notable differences versus past cycles that we think hint at a growing opportunity looking forward. Unlike the 2013 and 2020 maturity wall extensions, many companies have looked beyond the syndicated markets for financing alternatives over the past two years. We estimate that since 2022, $40 billion of syndicated loans have been refinanced with private credit solutions and $65 billion of out-of-court exchanges have been consummated. Undoubtedly, a sizable portion of this activity has targeted maturities through 2025.  Higher rates are forcing companies to think more creatively about how they finance themselves and we think this has created compelling opportunities for asset managers who can straddle both the public and private markets and provide bespoke financing solutions.   Looking forward, we suspect you will soon hear about the looming 2028/29 maturity wall — and for good reason. Due to the record pace of private equity deployment in 2021 and 2022, the sub-investment grade market will soon have to contend with its largest refinancing lift in history. However, we see more opportunity than risk in this dynamic and expect that the new financing tools that were used to solve the most recent maturity wall will reprise their roles in addressing the even larger upcoming refinancing needs of the market over the next few years. 𝘚𝘰𝘶𝘳𝘤𝘦𝘴: 𝘗𝘪𝘵𝘤𝘩𝘉𝘰𝘰𝘬, 𝘑𝘗𝘔𝘰𝘳𝘨𝘢𝘯, 𝘔𝘰𝘳𝘨𝘢𝘯 𝘚𝘵𝘢𝘯𝘭𝘦𝘺