Aidan Houlihan

December indigestion caused by the Federal Reserve's comments today? The S&P was humming along until the FOMC cut 25 bps as expected, and the changes to the statement were trivial (although the vote to cut wasn’t unanimous). Chairman Powell wasn’t a reassuring voice at this meeting, and the market’s confusion led to hawkish projections and speculations for 2025. The S&P 500 closed at the day's lows, -3%. Capital flow was heavy at 145%. Today's move lower in the stock market was significant. We’re below the 50-day moving average for the first time since September. We’re not oversold (yet), and we’re (only) back at mid-October levels. From a technical standpoint, the rest of December should be a race for the exits….but dip-buyers will (most likely?) do their thing. It's worked for the last 12+ years, so why stop now? Considering today’s drop is rooted in a market unprepared for a Fed that wasn’t gung-ho with spiking the punch bowl a lot more, it could mean that once investors relax and think, they won’t believe this is all that bearish. If that’s the case, watch for an enjoyable bounce back. In summary, the fundamental landscape isn’t radically altered; however, the emotional landscape temporarily is.

11

𝗕𝗿𝗶𝗱𝗴𝗲𝘄𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗻𝘀 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝘆 𝘁𝗼 𝗿𝗲𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗹 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗵 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗲𝗲𝘁 𝗘𝗧𝗙 https://lnkd.in/dCYdE-zK   Risk parity funds for retail investors have not worked well over the past decade or so (and Bridgewater’s All-Weather strategy has also underperformed for some time): the pioneer in the industry (Wealthfront Risk Parity Fund with $1.3bn in AUMs) is going to be liquidated in January https://lnkd.in/dya2H6SZ , and other products have also failed to beat a simpler 60/40 strategy.   This despite the carnage in bond markets in 2022 and the elevated asset correlations (or, more likely, because of…).   I guess it all boils down to the specific strategy used: this product will also use leverage in an ETF, so it will be interesting to see how it plays out. 

12

3 Comments

Moelis acts as Exclusive Placement Agent to Archer, electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft developer, on its $430 million common stock PIPE in conjunction with the announcement of a strategic partnership with Anduril Industries. #CapitalMarkets Press release: https://bit.ly/3BhRjwT

9

Moelis acts as Exclusive Placement Agent to Archer, electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft developer, on its $430 million common stock PIPE in conjunction with the announcement of a strategic partnership with Anduril Industries. #CapitalMarkets Press release: https://bit.ly/4iBFfY8

4

Moelis acts as Exclusive Placement Agent to Archer, electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft developer, on its $430 million common stock PIPE in conjunction with the announcement of a strategic partnership with Anduril Industries. #CapitalMarkets Press release: https://bit.ly/4iBHqLi

13

2 Comments

Marathon Asset Management’s Opportunistic Credit team has seen a strong pick up in Liability Management Excercises (LME) by companies to de-lever by exploiting weak debt covenants, and avoid the costly bankruptcy process, while receiving a new money capital solution deal from an opportunistic credit investor. Creative Capital Solutions can help support businesses in growing into their capital structure and navigating a period of uncertainty.

112

1 Comment

Fixed income in 2024 - Lessons from History | Steven Friedman and Valentina Chen examine how asset allocators should consider the role of fixed income in their portfolios in 2024. Steve looks at the potential benefits but also analyzes three scenarios that present downside risks. https://bit.ly/440WKKe

11

Fidelity Managed Portfolios adding three new liquid alternative strategies. Ilan Kolet, institutional portfolio manager, outlines the strategy behind the addition of liquid alts and the benefits they may provide to Fidelity Managed Portfolios. Watch the full video: https://ow.ly/JSRq50RHli9 #FidelityCanada

4

Moelis is pleased to act as Exclusive Financial Advisor to IHS Towers, one of the largest independent owners, operators, and developers of shared communications infrastructure in the world by tower count, on its $230 million sale of IHS Kuwait to Zain Group. #DealAdvisory Press release: https://bit.ly/3OJly2A

1

Moelis is pleased to act as Exclusive Financial Advisor to IHS Towers, one of the largest independent owners, operators, and developers of shared communications infrastructure in the world by tower count, on its $230 million sale of IHS Kuwait to Zain Group. #DealAdvisory Press release: https://bit.ly/3OOcFoC

10

Moelis is pleased to act as Exclusive Financial Advisor to IHS Towers, one of the largest independent owners, operators, and developers of shared communications infrastructure in the world by tower count, on its $230 million sale of IHS Kuwait to Zain Group. #DealAdvisory Press release: https://bit.ly/3D4ot3s

7

Moelis is pleased to act as Exclusive Financial Advisor to IHS Towers, one of the largest independent owners, operators, and developers of shared communications infrastructure in the world by tower count, on its $230 million sale of IHS Kuwait to Zain Group. #DealAdvisory Press release: https://bit.ly/3VSL1ef

2

There is no escaping Ozempic and Wegovy. Diabetes and obesity drugs are global phenomena. They've won over the rich and famous, generated billions in sales, and blown open a new market for weight-loss drugs, which Goldman Sachs estimates will reach $100 billion annually by 2030. Investors are closely eyeing the potential implications of obesity medications on the food industry, despite the early stages of their widespread adoption. Thus, investors are closely tracking these developments, anticipating how shifts in consumer behavior driven by pharmaceutical interventions could reshape market dynamics and present challenges and opportunities in future years. Learn more in our latest insight: https://lnkd.in/eM36Rb5w #ozempic #wegovy #marketrends #privateinvesting #alternativeinvesting #hedgefunds #biotech #pharma #innovation For registered investment advisors only. IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: https://lnkd.in/e3VJtU2Q

1

Please watch the latest Nasdaq Tradetalks, where Jill Malandrino, Chuck Fuller, CFA, CMT, Mark Marex, CFA, and I discuss topics such as Gordon Gecko (Michael Saylor), a disenfranchised generation, index reconstitution, bitcoin, and more.

7

1 Comment

=> The U.S. labor market report produced a knee-jerk reaction among major FX – but MXN, COP, BRL, and ZAR are bucking the trend => MXN clearly likes the idea of a stronger growth in the U.S. Further, President Sheinbaum continues to send orthodox policy signals (including the post-election fiscal adjustment), and there is now a possibility that parts of controversial judicial reform might be revised => BRL/COP/ZAR’s outperformance is even more interesting – Domestic factors still getting noticed? (chart’s source - Bloomberg LP)

13

Securitized credit has consistently offered undervalued opportunities in this market cycle. Here, my colleague Kyra Fecteau, CFA shares how macro research and in-depth analysis of securitized sectors' varied market dynamics and collateral characteristics inform her construction of securitized allocations in diversified fixed income portfolios.

4

In the latest edition of Barron's, long-tenured Associate Editor Randy Forsyth writes: “Bond investors of a certain age will recall that the Treasury 30-year bond yield briefly touched 14% 40 years ago this past week. While the all-time record of about 15% was hit in September 1981, the 14% yield was more valuable, given that inflation by 1984 was in retreat from the double digits of the late 1970s and early ‘80s, to 4%. That meant a real return of 10% from a risk-free government security, more than stocks have returned historically. […] This was the turning point for the generational decline in yields, observed Jeffrey Gundlach.” And likewise supplied the fuel for a generational increase in equity prices, which had previously languished during the high inflation of the 1970’s until tamed by Fed Chairman Paul Volcker. We didn’t know it in real time, but on reflection the ensuing four decades were halcyon days, and the “easy money” was long duration and long beta. No more. Need new ideas. Fresh perspectives. Outcomes not benchmarks. .

4

1 Comment