Annie Duke

Annie Duke

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States
11K followers 500+ connections

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Annie loves to dive deep into decision making under uncertainty. Her latest obsession is…

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Experience

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    First Round Capital

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    Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States

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    Philadelphia, PA

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    Los Angeles

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    Palo Alto, CA

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    Greater Los Angeles Area

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Education

Publications

  • Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away

    Penguin

    From the best-selling author of Thinking in Bets comes a toolkit for mastering the skill of quitting to achieve greater success.

    Business leaders, with millions of dollars down the drain, struggle to abandon a new app or product that just isn’t working. Governments, caught in a hopeless conflict, believe that the next tactic will finally be the one that wins the war. And in our own lives, we persist in relationships or careers that no longer serve us. Why? According to Annie Duke, in the…

    From the best-selling author of Thinking in Bets comes a toolkit for mastering the skill of quitting to achieve greater success.

    Business leaders, with millions of dollars down the drain, struggle to abandon a new app or product that just isn’t working. Governments, caught in a hopeless conflict, believe that the next tactic will finally be the one that wins the war. And in our own lives, we persist in relationships or careers that no longer serve us. Why? According to Annie Duke, in the face of tough decisions, we’re terrible quitters. And that is significantly holding us back.

    In Quit, Duke teaches you how to get good at quitting. Drawing on stories from elite athletes like Mount Everest climbers, founders of leading companies like Stewart Butterfield, the CEO of Slack, and top entertainers like Dave Chappelle, Duke explains why quitting is integral to success, as well as strategies for determining when to hold 'em, and when to fold 'em, that will save you time, energy, and money. You’ll learn:

    - How the paradox of quitting influences decision making: If you quit on time, you will feel you quit early
    - What forces work against good quitting behavior, such as escalation commitment, desire for certainty, and status quo bias
    - How to think in expected value in order to make better decisions, as well as other best practices, such as increasing flexibility in goal-setting, establishing “quitting contracts”, anticipating optionality, and conducting premortems and backcasts

    Whether you’re facing a make-or-break business decision or life-altering personal choice, mastering the skill of quitting will help you make the best next move.

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  • How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices

    Portfolio; Illustrated edition

    What do you do when you're faced with a big decision? If you're like most people, you probably make a pro and con list, spend a lot of time obsessing about decisions that didn't work out, get caught in analysis paralysis, endlessly seek other people's opinions to find just that little bit of extra information that might make you sure, and finally go with your gut.

    What if there was a better way to make quality decisions so you can think clearly, feel more confident, second-guess yourself…

    What do you do when you're faced with a big decision? If you're like most people, you probably make a pro and con list, spend a lot of time obsessing about decisions that didn't work out, get caught in analysis paralysis, endlessly seek other people's opinions to find just that little bit of extra information that might make you sure, and finally go with your gut.

    What if there was a better way to make quality decisions so you can think clearly, feel more confident, second-guess yourself less, and ultimately be more decisive and be more productive?

    Making good decisions doesn't have to be a series of endless guesswork. Rather, it's a teachable skill that anyone can sharpen. In How to Decide, bestselling author Annie Duke and former professional poker player lays out a series of tools anyone can use to make better decisions. You'll learn:

    • To identify and dismantle hidden biases.
    • To extract the highest quality feedback from those whose advice you seek.
    • To more accurately identify the influence of luck in the outcome of your decisions.
    • When to decide fast, when to decide slow, and when to decide in advance.
    • To make decisions that more effectively help you to realize your goals and live your values.

    Through interactive exercises and engaging thought experiments, this book helps you analyze key decisions you've made in the past and troubleshoot those you're making in the future. Whether you're picking investments, evaluating a job offer, or trying to figure out your romantic life, How to Decide is the key to happier outcomes and fewer regrets.

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  • Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

    Portfolio; Illustrated edition

    Wall Street Journal bestseller!

    In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad…

    Wall Street Journal bestseller!

    In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?

    Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?

    Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.

    By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.
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  • Various Blog Posts

    Huffington Post

    Various blog posts about decision-making as it relates to business, politics and interpersonal relationships.

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  • The Middle Zone: Mastering the Most Difficult Hands in Hold'em Poker

    So often in Texas hold'em poker, you just don't know where you stand. Do you have the best hand? The worst? Within the great gray area between the stone nuts and a pure bluff it's often hard to tell. But take heart, because in this innovative new poker single, Annie Duke and John Vorhaus dive deep into the murky decision space of the middle zone, show you what it is, how to avoid it, and what to do if, alas, you step in something sticky.

    In The Middle Zone, you'll learn...

    - How…

    So often in Texas hold'em poker, you just don't know where you stand. Do you have the best hand? The worst? Within the great gray area between the stone nuts and a pure bluff it's often hard to tell. But take heart, because in this innovative new poker single, Annie Duke and John Vorhaus dive deep into the murky decision space of the middle zone, show you what it is, how to avoid it, and what to do if, alas, you step in something sticky.

    In The Middle Zone, you'll learn...

    - How to forecast your prospects for a hand
    - How to sidestep potsize mistakes
    - How to win pots that don't belong to you
    - How to turn accidental bluffs into intentional ones

    The middle zone is one of hold'em's most common decision spaces - and one of its most commonly misplayed. But it doesn't have to be that way. Just read and study The Middle Zone and you'll walk away with a simple, reliable strategy for navigating this tricky space effectively on hand after hand, and turning a cloudy poker situation into a clear - and clearly profitable - one instead.

    Other authors
    • John Vorhaus
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  • Decide to Play Great Poker

    Huntington Press

    Decide to Play Great Poker is a complete strategy guide to the game of No-Limit Hold'em. Released in June 2011, it was the best-selling title in poker that year. It continues to perform at the top of the poker genre offering readers a unique, decision-making approach to the game.

    Other authors
    • John Vorhaus
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  • Annie Duke: How I Raised, Folded, Bluffed, Flirted, Cursed, and Won Millions at the World Series of Poker

    Hudson Street Press

    The top-ranked female poker player in the world reveals an insider’s view of the World Series of Poker, a glimpse of her fascinating journey to the top, and keen analysis of winning hands

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