Dennis Kelleher

Friends - Here's the first of the three posts on the bipartisan U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission top recommendations (apologies for multiple posts). Here's the TL;DR version: It's time the U.S. Government sprints to an AGI capability. It's a strategic imperative. 🌐 AGI: A Strategic Imperative 🌐 Whether it arrives tomorrow or years from now, AGI is coming. Its definition is contested, but it broadly refers to AI systems that match or exceed human capabilities across all cognitive domains. AGI would surpass the sharpest human minds at every task—from writing novels and proving theorems to strategic planning and scientific discovery. The country that first develops AGI capabilities will almost certainly secure strategic autonomy, gaining a competitive edge in research, innovation, and economic growth, while reshaping the global balance of power. AGI could analyze vast data sets and provide insights critical to national security and defense. That’s why the Commission's number one recommendation is a large-scale, moonshot Manhattan Project-like sprint to achieve AGI. Here's the bipartisan recommendation: 1️⃣. Congress establish and fund a Manhattan Project-like program dedicated to racing to and acquiring an Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) capability. AGI is generally defined as systems that are as good as or better than human capabilities across all cognitive domains and would usurp the sharpest human minds at every task. Among the specific actions the Commission recommends for Congress: ➡ Provide broad multiyear contracting authority to the executive branch and associated funding for leading artificial intelligence, cloud, and data center companies and others to advance the stated policy at a pace and scale consistent with the goal of U.S. AGI leadership; and ➡ Direct the U.S. secretary of defense to provide a Defense Priorities and Allocations System “DX Rating” to items in the artificial intelligence ecosystem to ensure this project receives national priority. #USPolicy #ArtificialIntelligence #AGI #Biotechnology #TechPolicy Thank you again to all of my commissioner and staff colleagues for all of their collegiality and hard work, including Robin Cleveland, PhD, LPC, Reva Price, Aaron Friedberg, Kim Glas, Carte Goodwin, Jacob Helberg, Leland Miller, Randy Schriver, Cliff Sims, Jonathan N. Stivers, Michael Wessel, Mike Castellano, Jameson Cunningham, and many others. Here's the link for folks that want to check out the FULL report: https://lnkd.in/erqNVxxF Here's where to find the Executive Summary: https://lnkd.in/eWwCCd5A Here's where to find the Recommendations: https://lnkd.in/epykgGSC

38

‘Stuck on Stupid’: The Real Problem Behind Election Losses Faulty analysis and ignoring the real issues won’t fix election losses. It’s time to get serious about building a coalition. https://lnkd.in/etSrr_rk #ElectionAnalysis #CoalitionBuilding #VoterEngagement #PoliticalStrategy #DataDriven #EmpowerChange #RolandMartinUnfiltered #BlackStarNetwork

5

Anne Applebaum's latest book, "Autocracy Inc.," sheds light on the growing threat posed by the surge of autocratic regimes worldwide. From Russia, China, and Iran to semi-autocratic nations like Hungary, Turkey, and India, the book paints a chilling picture of a networked global kleptocracy adept at leveraging oppression, misinformation, and money laundering to solidify power and profit from their positions. The book highlights our alarming economic dependence on autocratic nations, exemplified by the gas trade between Russia and Germany. It underlines how such dependencies compromise our sovereignty and corrode our values and institutions over time. While the book doesn't delve into health matters, it issues a stark warning to our industry. We are too dependent on "Autocracy Inc." countries for some health technologies and commodities - remember the desperate international scramble face-masks, the military lockdown of vaccine factories and the desperate recruitment of healthcare professionals? We share sensitive health technologies and research with them in the spirit of scientific endeavour, without clear controls or accountability. However, this reliance on "Autocracy Inc." countries for critical health technologies and resources raises questions about the wisdom of such interdependence. During the pandemic, I was made painfully aware of how dependent we were on these countries. I saw how, under weak US leadership, democratic countries failed to collaborate, damaging important relationships. I saw how countries like China misled the world on key issues like the origins and spread of the virus. The consequences hit us hard. Health is a strategic asset that nations should curate and protect. This book prompts reflection on whether we should reevaluate our strategic priorities and safeguard our health assets more vigilantly.

15

1 Comment

In my latest column, I discuss the intensifying conflict in the Middle East and suggest that Iran's support for HAMAS and its recent missile attack on Israel are part of its campaign to derail the peace negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. https://lnkd.in/ePaCBNYH

1

Tension between Congress and the Pentagon about the retirement of legacy platforms is one of the major obstacles in the U.S.’s effort to meet the pacing threat, and it’s one of my interests as a national security journalist and now strategic adviser to defense tech companies. In a big piece for The Wall Street Journal about fate of the A-10s last year, I wrote that the Air Force wanted to retire the planes because they wouldn’t last in a fight with a peer adversary, but Congress continued to spend about half a billion dollars a year on the platform in deference to members whose constituencies depended on the A-10 for jobs and the flow of federal tax dollars. https://lnkd.in/eE3nKnAW "This kind of intervention is common—and is impairing the U.S.’s ability to respond to rapidly modernizing Chinese forces in a new era of great-power competition, say current and former senior defense officials and military analysts,” I wrote. The Air Force ultimately won the A-10 fight, after promising to bring new programs to Davis-Monthan Air Force base in Arizona to replace the Warthog after its gradual retirement. This week, in its long-awaited report the Commission on the National Defense Strategy this week recommended “DoD should immediately review all major systems against likely future needs, emphasizing battlefield utility and prioritizing agility, interoperability, and survivability.” Meanwhile, the House’s draft defense appropriation bill for FY2025 bars the Air Force from retiring the U-2 spy planes, severely restricts the force from retiring older F-15s, and forces the Navy to keep sailing its flawed Littoral Combat Ships. The U-2s are on average 40 years old. It’s a cool plane, but the Air Force is spending about $360 million per year on O&M to keep those 27 airframes up and flying, plus another few dozen million on mods. The House defense appropriations subcommittee writes, “The Committee’s prioritization of innovation aims to deliver acquisition solutions faster to rapidly field capabilities to the warfighter.” Yet they want to keep 27 Cold War-era spy planes in the air when they could be spending that money on space systems, commercial imagery, unmanned ISR, and much more?

4

My latest for MSNBC: The union plan to unleash a tsunami for Biden. "There’s plenty in the former president’s record w/ which these unions can make their case. Former President Donald Trump’s popularity among working-class voters is, to be blunt, a triumph of bluster over substance and presentation over reality. The former president says he is a friend of the common man. His actions demonstrate he is anything but. Trump’s administration was a wrecking ball when it came to worker rights, rolling back multiple safety initiatives. His Supreme Court nominees were instrumental in a major ruling weakening public-sector unions. His appointees to the National Labor Relations Board made it harder for workers to unionize. During his administration, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration even removed the names of people who died in workplace accidents from the front page of its website. And since he left the White House, he has fought with the United Auto Workers and urged its members to stop paying their dues. Biden’s strong pro-worker actions are a 180-degree turn from Trump’s record. He marched on a picket line last year with striking UAW members (a first for a sitting president) and met with Starbucks labor organizers. His NLRB appointments are more likely to back workers over employers. And he's been an aggressive advocate for nonunion workers. His administration’s ban on almost all non-compete agreements will most likely both increase entrepreneurial efforts and give America’s workers a wage boost of more than $500 a year. And, yes, the names of workers killed in workplace accidents are back on OSHA’s front page. Nothing highlights the difference between Trump’s & Biden’s attitudes toward working Americans better than how they both handled overtime compensation. Trump abandoned an Obama administration initiative to double the salary threshold under which salaried workers would be eligible for mandatory overtime pay. Biden’s administration didn’t just restore the Obama-era rule; it raised the threshold to just over $56,000 annually ... [But] a recent review of databases tracking Democratic candidate statements, social media posts and campaign ads during the 2022 election revealed relatively few House and Senate candidates emphasized kitchen table economics or Biden legislative achievements like the infrastructure bill or the Inflation Reduction Act. That is borderline political malpractice. These issues and achievements mean a lot to voters. But they won’t sell themselves. People, I’ve learned over decades of reporting on these issues, lead busy lives: They don’t spend their days thinking about political gains and losses. They are upset about inflation and the rising cost of living but aren’t aware of what Biden — or any politician, really — is doing (or not doing, when it comes to Trump) to make their financial lives better." #Biden #Trump #Election2024 #OSHA #NLRB #SEIU #noncompetes #overtime #WorkerRights #unions #Fightfor15

19

7 Comments

VA published Circular 24-26-16, Implementation Date for VA’s Home Retention Waterfall. Per VA: "The purpose of this Circular is to provide clarification on the dates of implementation for the recently released guidance in VA Servicer Handbook, M26-4, Chapter 5 and Appendix F. (Rescind Oct. 1, 2024)."

10

Pending some recounts, my calculations show that Republicans will gain about 60 net state legislative seats post-election. The biggest red shifts were in Vermont, New Hampshire, and Nevada, and the largest blue shifts were in Wisconsin and Montana (both new maps). Overall, Republicans should enter the 2025 session with 4,125 state legislative seats nationwide, while Democrats will hold 3,244 seats and independents will control 17 seats. https://lnkd.in/evst_4HD

48

4 Comments

Friendly reminder to consider your sources carefully and guard against false information. "The two companies are believed to have played a key role in providing services to the Russian government’s disinformation efforts, including the 'creation of websites designed to impersonate government organizations and legitimate media outlets in Europe.'" #misinformation #disinformation #russia #cognitivewarfare #informationoperations #informationwarfare #psyops #foreignmaligninfluence #journalism #truthmatters #factsmatter https://lnkd.in/gpa_y2jK

7

U.S. Gaming States Cracking Down On Offshore Gambling Sites - from VIXIO’s Chris Sieroty with sharp commentary from Brendan Bussmann and Christopher Hebert Louisiana is the latest state to target Bovada for operating illegally U.S. state gaming regulators' recent efforts to prevent prominent offshore gambling websites, such as Bovada, from accessing consumers in their jurisdictions is an extension of state-level enforcement initiatives dating back several years, according to one policy expert. “You can look back even to multiple states expressing the desire to get this done with the U.S. Department of Justice back in April of 2023,” said Brendan Bussmann, managing partner with the Las Vegas-based advisory firm B Global, citing a letter authored last year by leading state regulators calling for increased urgency in tackling offshore competition faced by regulated online betting operators. Bussmann said the growing number of states issuing cease-and-desist letters to Bovada, arguably the most prominent offshore platform in the U.S. market, “continues to be about protecting consumers in each of these jurisdictions while also allowing only licensed operators to conduct business”. “Offshore operators and affiliates continue to be aggressive in working the U.S. market where to the average consumer, these may look legit,” Bussmann said. “State regulators and the Feds have an obligation to address these illegal activities to protect consumers and the legal market.” “Bovada is just one of many that are continuing to prey on the U.S. consumer." Louisiana Regulators Target Bovada Louisiana last month became the latest state to issue a cease-and-desist order requiring Curaçao-based Harp Media to block residents from gaining access to its offshore sports betting and casino games site Bovada. On its website, Bovada says it operates in the United States, except for 10 states and the District of Columbia. The operator recently added D.C. and Connecticut to its list of restricted states. As of Tuesday (September 3), Bovada had not complied with the Louisiana Gaming Control Board’s (LGCB) order to immediately restrict residents from accessing their sports betting and casino website and add the state to its restricted list. “Recently our regulatory colleagues in states like Michigan and Connecticut have sent similar letters, which has caused Bovada to restrict access to its site for residents of those respective states,” LGCB chairman Christopher Hebert said during an August 15 control board meeting. “It is my sincere hope that Louisiana will join that list of restricted states based on our letter,” the chairman said. Hebert did not discuss what options the control board would pursue if Bovada did not comply with their letter, but instead took the opportunity to urge the federal government to “use its resources to crack down on companies that have in place the regulatory, legal and financial safeguards to operate within the U.S. betting markets”.

23

1 Comment

Improving FOIA should have been at the center of a 5th #OpenGov U.S. national action plan in 2022, but this White House chose to prioritize equity plans & commitments over restoring transparency & accountability in accord with the mandates of Congress & the petitions of civil society advocates. https://lnkd.in/eXC3PP76 The ongoing lack of oversight of FOIA in Congress is paired with an appalling lack of oversight of open government and US participation in the Open Government Partnership: https://lnkd.in/gz3CEuvy

4

Unmanned_News_pdf – Alex J. Pollock – R Street Institute Alan Greenspan's speech on December 5, 1996, at the American Enterprise Institute, is famous for introducing the term "irrational exuberance". He used this phrase to question whether the stock market was overvalued and if such exuberance could lead to economic instability. This speech is often cited as a precursor to the dot-com bubble that followed in the late 1990s  #HistoricalEconomics #IrrationalExuberance #BitCoin #CentralBanking #FederalReserve #FederalGovernment #NewYork #StockExchange #FinanceTradeAffairs #Unmanned_News

2

1 Comment

The Simple Solution to a Complex Problem in Elections, by John R Brakey  Abraham Lincoln once said, "Let them know the truth, and the country is safe." Truth and transparency aren't just words – they're the foundation of trust, and trust in our elections is faltering. Research shows that only 16% of Americans trust our federal government, and just 4% trust it regardless of election outcomes. But here's the good news: the solution is simple. It’s called transparency, and there's a tool that makes it possible – Abe. Every vote creates two things: a digital ballot image and a Cast Vote Record (CVR). These are public records, or at least they should be. Abe lets anyone – voters, candidates, election officials – verify election results by matching ballot images with CVRs. Unfortunately, in some states, these records aren't accessible. It’s like having a bank account but not being allowed to check your balance. Transparency ensures that elections aren't a black box but an open process that every citizen can verify. Democracy doesn’t work on blind faith; it thrives on clarity and accountability. Abe shines a light on the process. Two screens: one showing the ballot image, the other showing how it was counted. Simple, clear, and verifiable. And the best part? Abe is free because transparency shouldn't come with a price tag. Lincoln warned that America's downfall would come from division, not external enemies. But he also gave us the solution: truth. With tools like Abe, we don’t have to choose between security and transparency. We can verify our votes and rebuild trust in the system. Democracy is about verifiable truth. The problems might be complicated, but the solution? It’s as simple as turning on a light. Please watch and share.

2

1 Comment