Gabriel Jarrosson

📰 Solo VCs are rising in popularity once again. This means only one General Partner is leading the firm, versus multiples. 💔 Why? There are GP breakups going on all around us after partnerships have been tested by the market for years now. The bar to co-found a venture firm with a partner is very high. Those GPs that thought they might graft another one on in the short term to share the load are stopping in their tracks to deeply consider those implications. 🌱 Many are opting to bring in more junior talent and grow them into Partner roles instead. It’ll take time and capital to be able to do that as the firm grows. Talked to 3 diff GPs about this at dinner last night and we’re all leaning toward that approach in our short and long term planning. 💡 FYI - this is just an observation of the moment we’re in. There are plenty of firms thriving with full partnerships as well as solo GPs. But it’s worth calling out that new partnerships are particularly risky right now, especially if the partners haven’t worked with each other for a long time.

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How I build Seasonality forecasts 👇 ~~~ 𝗧𝗟;𝗗𝗥: grab the template here 👉 https://lnkd.in/eKDEu5Rt ~~~ 1. 𝗟𝗼𝗼𝗸 𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗛𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆 In the "Historical Revenue" section I pull together several years of history (if available) and stack them together by month. At the bottom I calculate "Total of All Years" which gives me a grand total by month over the last [6] years. 2. 𝗦𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁 I take the respective monthly totals and divide them by the grand total Revenue over that time period. This gives me my "Seasonality Curve, As Calculated," which serves as a reference point for the forecast (a weighted-average of the history). Then, right below that, I have "Seasonality Curve, for Model," which allows the user to make any changes to the expected seasonality curve for this year. (Default is just to leave the curve alone) 3. 𝗣&𝗟 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁 Now that I have my curve, I simply punch in the expected Revenue and Gross Margin (the two light-yellow input cells), and extrapolate those figures for each month based on the seasonality curve. The Revenue and Margin forecasts come from the Management Team. My job as the FP&A Professional is challenge their assumptions: - Will our seasonality be different this year? - Why $2.7mm? - Why 20% Margin? 4. 𝗟𝗶𝗻𝗸 𝘁𝗼 𝗠𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹 The Revenue and COGS get linked back to my Three Statement Model. If I need to make changes, I come back to my seasonality tab, make the change, and trust that my Three Statement Model will update accordingly. (meaning my Working Capital will also change correctly) 5. 𝗖𝗵𝗲𝗰𝗸 𝗺𝘆 𝗪𝗼𝗿𝗸 Lastly, I will always have double-checks confirming: - My seasonality curve equals 100% - The Revenue and COGS in the Schedule match the Three Statement Model - The Gross Profit in the Schedule matches the Three Statement Model All of these double-checks will feed into a Control Panel I have as the first page in my model. 6. 𝗗𝘂𝗽𝗹𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗮𝘀 𝗡𝗲𝗲𝗱𝗲𝗱 For a new product line I just type "Alt + e + m," create a copy of the tab, and rename for a new product line. I'll build as many small, simple schedules as I need to create a comprehensive model that is easy to follow. (I just find it easier this way than stacking multiple seasonality curves on a single tab, but you can do that too if you'd prefer) ~~~ 👋 Hey, I'm Chris Reilly, and I teach Financial Modeling based on real Private Equity and FP&A experience. 𝘱.𝘴. don't forget to grab the template (link at top of post 👆)

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How I build Seasonality forecasts 👇 ~~~ 𝗧𝗟;𝗗𝗥: grab the template here 👉 https://lnkd.in/eKDEu5Rt ~~~ 1. 𝗟𝗼𝗼𝗸 𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗛𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆 In the "Historical Revenue" section I pull together several years of history (if available) and stack them together by month. At the bottom I calculate "Total of All Years" which gives me a grand total by month over the last [6] years. 2. 𝗦𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁 I take the respective monthly totals and divide them by the grand total Revenue over that time period. This gives me my "Seasonality Curve, As Calculated," which serves as a reference point for the forecast (a weighted-average of the history). Then, right below that, I have "Seasonality Curve, for Model," which allows the user to make any changes to the expected seasonality curve for this year. (Default is just to leave the curve alone) 3. 𝗣&𝗟 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁 Now that I have my curve, I simply punch in the expected Revenue and Gross Margin (the two light-yellow input cells), and extrapolate those figures for each month based on the seasonality curve. The Revenue and Margin forecasts come from the Management Team. My job as the FP&A Professional is challenge their assumptions: - Will our seasonality be different this year? - Why $2.7mm? - Why 20% Margin? 4. 𝗟𝗶𝗻𝗸 𝘁𝗼 𝗠𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹 The Revenue and COGS get linked back to my Three Statement Model. If I need to make changes, I come back to my seasonality tab, make the change, and trust that my Three Statement Model will update accordingly. (meaning my Working Capital will also change correctly) 5. 𝗖𝗵𝗲𝗰𝗸 𝗺𝘆 𝗪𝗼𝗿𝗸 Lastly, I will always have double-checks confirming: - My seasonality curve equals 100% - The Revenue and COGS in the Schedule match the Three Statement Model - The Gross Profit in the Schedule matches the Three Statement Model All of these double-checks will feed into a Control Panel I have as the first page in my model. 6. 𝗗𝘂𝗽𝗹𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗮𝘀 𝗡𝗲𝗲𝗱𝗲𝗱 For a new product line I just type "Alt + e + m," create a copy of the tab, and rename for a new product line. I'll build as many small, simple schedules as I need to create a comprehensive model that is easy to follow. (I just find it easier this way than stacking multiple seasonality curves on a single tab, but you can do that too if you'd prefer) ~~~ 👋 Hey, I'm Chris Reilly, and I can help you become the go-to Financial Modeler in just 8 hours. ⚡ p.s., Biggest sale of the year 👉 https://lnkd.in/e6B7y9yk

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The fundraising market for VC funds is on track for its worst year since 2015. The shortage of IPOs has meant a lack of liquidity to LPs, causing less appetite for new fund commitments. The last two years have felt a bit like a "venture stalemate." Will it change in 2025? My latest article in Forbes includes predictions from leading Limited Partners (LPs) across the US and Europe, including institutions, fund of funds and family offices. Read below (link in comments) to see what they're expecting for venture capital in the year ahead. 🔮 Aakar Vachhani Fairview Capital Hana Yang Allocate Adam Marchick Akkadian Ventures Anu Adebajo Daryn Dodson Dominic Maier AVP Layne Johnson Screendoor Julie Pulda, CFA Ballentine Partners, LLC Albert Azout Level Ventures Charlotte Palmer Mark Schmitz equation January Ventures

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It's already hard to get into the top-tier YC world. It's 10x times harder if you're in Europe. Even if you're in Silicon valley, it's still hard to get into the YC ecosystem. Why? Because YC is tightly closed and protected environment. An exclusive world where demo day access is invite-only for the insiders. In the world there are only 400 handpicked guests attended the last in-person event. It was purely an insider event. You have to be an insider to get access to the best deals. And I'm on of the 400 investors who's on that list. This is why I love YC so much: Statistically 6% of these startups will become unicorns. Making them the best asset class you could ever invest your money into. But, it's almost impossible to gain access to them…. You can get access through me, and that's as close to those YC start-ups as you could ever get.

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35 Days into YC: 3 Real Startup Lessons We Didn't Expect 🪄 #1 Master the Art of the Impromptu Pitch - Keep it magical: Your demo should always tell a story — keep the focal point your users, and make sure they experience the “WOW” moment of your trick. 🎯 #2 Activation Trumps Acquisition: The Real Metric That Matters - At Spur (YC S24) we measure activation by measuring the frequency with our users are creating and running tests on the platform. - Signing up for a demo, a pilot, or even onboarding does *not* signal activation The question that really matters: are your users actually using your product and finding value from it? ✨#3 Make things ridiculously easy for your customers - Set up easy channels of communication with your customers, and be proactive about using them. - Handoff doesn't cut it, your customers should hit the ground running when you onboard them — even if it means you are doing the work to set them up P.S. 👀 Keep an eye out! Exciting things to come from us early next week #ycombinator #AI #Testing

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VC- Combine VC #PreSeed, Seed, Series A Offices- San Francisco Markets- Consumer Brands, Beverages, EdTech, HealthTech, #Digitalhealth, PropTech, Enterprise Software https://combine.vc #vc #venturecapital #funding #startups #startup

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The most important fundraising KPI: 1st pitch → 2nd meeting conversion rate Is yours low? (< 30-50%) Something is wrong. Here's how to diagnose your issue and fix it: There are two types of potential problems... 1️⃣ Investor targeting 2️⃣ Pitching 𝐈𝐍𝐕𝐄𝐒𝐓𝐎𝐑 𝐓𝐀𝐑𝐆𝐄𝐓𝐈𝐍𝐆: The most common issue is targeting the wrong investors. Usually you're reaching out to investors that focus on a different stage or industry. Do some research on the investors that didn't convert to a second meeting. The most important resource: their portfolio page. Ignore the "about" section, or their blog. That's mostly about marketing to potential investors in their fund. Instead, look at what they've actually invested in and the stage at which they invested (Pre-Seed, Seed, Series A, etc.) Remember: trust the portfolio, not the thesis. __ The other main issue is unclear outbound messaging. Investors think you do one thing (industry, business model, tech, etc.) but you actually do something else. I recommend sending your outbound email template to 5+ friends that don't know anything about your startup. Ask them: • What kinds of customers do you think we serve? • What benefits do you think we provide for them? • What product features do you think we have? • What technologies do you think we use? If more 20% of your friends answer these questions incorrectly, you need to write new outreach emails. 𝐏𝐈𝐓𝐂𝐇𝐈𝐍𝐆: The most common issue is just that your pitch is weak. Usually because you aren't telling a story. You're just sharing disconnected data. The best pitches are stories that foreshadow the only possible outcome: your startup's tremendous success. It feels inevitable. The easiest test to figure out if you're telling a story: try connecting the main idea of each of your slides with "but," "so" or one of their synonyms. If the natural link between slides is "and" or if you can move the order around, you don't have a story. Chronology matters in storytelling. Go back to the drawing board and try to write your inevitable success story. __ Maybe your overall pitch isn't weak. But VCs may still be spotting a red flag when you pitch. It turns them off right away. If you think this might be your issue, it's important to start asking questions. Most pitches have time for you to ask questions at the end. Here's my go-to to diagnose this issue: "What would you need to see in order to get excited about investing in <<STARTUP>>?" If they tell you a primary KPI that you need to improve, then you've probably identified the issue. The other possibility: They try to avoid giving you a specific answer. If they're evading your question, you NEED to dig in to get to the bottom of it. Your fundraising success may depend on it. —— Was this helpful? 👍 like and ♻️ repost it to help other founders!

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adding onto Yurii Rebryk list 15 startup lies (non mainstream YC version)👇: 01) "Our product will be first to market." → "We don’t even have a product yet." 02) "We currently have a $50mn valuation." → "That’s just what the pitch deck says." 03) "This is the best time to invest." → "We’re one week away from running out of cash." 04) "We have significant client interest." → "We sent 500 cold emails, and no one replied." 05) "We already have signed investors." → "My cousin chipped in some money." 06) "We've gotten significant interest from major cloud partners." → "AWS gave us $100 in free credits." 07) "We've hired top talent from all around the globe." → "One freelancer in another timezone is doing everything." 08) "We're moving at the speed of light." → "We have no idea where we’re heading." 09) "We're focused on improving our digital presence." → "We spent $1,000 on ads for 5 clicks." 10) "We're going to pivot." → "We royally screwed up." 11) "We're leveraging cutting-edge AI." → "We just glued an API to our app." 12) "We're scaling quickly." → "We got two new users. One was my mom." 13) "We have an agile workflow." → "Slack arguments are our stand-up meetings." 14) "We’re disrupting the market." → "We don’t actually know what our market is." 15) "Our burn rate is under control." → "We haven’t paid ourselves in months." Missing anything? Comment below. ALSO hit me up to tap into my network I love to help 😊 #startuplife #bootstrap #turntheworldupsidedown

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I just posted a video with typical mistakes founders usually make when they start raising their first investment round. Check the link in the first comment and share your opinion in the comments. If you feel that you learned a lot from this episode, please share it with your friends and collegues 🙏🏽 Follow me on youtube❤️

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🚀 *“Launch fast, iterate quickly”* has become a guiding mantra in the startup world, but is it always the right move? Take **Zoom** and **Clubhouse** as examples. Zoom’s early backers, like Emergence Capital and Sequoia, supported a strategy focused on product reliability and quality before scaling. When the pandemic hit, this approach enabled Zoom to scale smoothly and establish itself as a market leader. Meanwhile, **Clubhouse**, backed by Andreessen Horowitz, followed a different playbook: launching quickly, even with limited features, to capture initial user interest. This approach drove rapid growth but also brought challenges, from scaling to competition with bigger platforms. The “launch fast” philosophy—championed by Y Combinator with advice to “launch something bad”—often works well in **tech**, where products can be iterated rapidly based on user feedback. However, **in the entertainment industry, first impressions are everything**. A poorly received launch can damage credibility, making it difficult to recover. Quality expectations are higher, and you can't always "fix" a show, game, or movie after release. 🎬 *In entertainment, initial development, QA, and polish are crucial before launching.* When the first impression counts, launching too quickly can be a recipe for failure. What do you think? Should entertainment startups follow a different path than tech, or is there room for a hybrid approach? #startups #venturecapital #tech #entertainment #productdevelopment #launch

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What Dave McClure is building resonates well what we are doing with our Siena Secondary Fund. Although one focuses on fund stakes and the other company positions, the journey is the same - need to educate the market about what is #VC #secondary and how to benefit from it...

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🚀 Smart Founders’ Fundraising Hack 🚀 The savviest founders do the VC's work for them! 💼 Here's how: 💡 Pro Tip: When investors ask questions during fundraising, document everything! Create a wiki or FAQ (Google Docs, Notion—whatever works). 📄 🔄 Share this with future investors to streamline the process. You’ll save them time, and help them make a strong case to their investment committees! 📝 Be smart. Make it easy for them to say YES! 💰 #FundraisingTips #StartupSuccess #InvestorRelations #SmartFounders #GlenlunaVentures

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Specialized networks are eating traditional VC deal flow 🌶️ A decade ago YC owned the network-driven investing model. Now operator-investors are creating specialized communities that generate unique deal flow. Why does this matter? We (us operators) have built companies from 0→1. We know the technical challenges. We understand what it takes to turn engineering brilliance into products that drive real dollars. At Zero Prime Ventures we leverage our Data Council community—built over 10 years connecting the world's leading data infra and AI engineers. This gives us unparalleled access to technical founders building the next wave of infrastructure companies. The next Databricks, Snowflake and Datadog are being founded right now, and we're actively investing in companies with similar potential. Engineers: come build the next big thing with us.

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🌟Innovative VC Firm Overcomes Exits Drought with Secondary Sales🌟 ⛵Navigating a challenging landscape where exits are scarce, Santa Barbara Venture Partners (SBVP) has pioneered a novel approach to sustain its growth and attract investors for its second fund: secondary sales. Instead of waiting for traditional exits like IPOs or acquisitions, SBVP opted to sell shares of its portfolio companies, demonstrating its ability to generate returns for investors and stand out in a competitive market. 🎤According to Dan Engel, founder and managing partner of SBVP, these secondary transactions have been a game-changer, sparking investor interest and bolstering the firm's credibility. By leveraging its recent successes, including a lucrative stake in sports-betting company DraftKings Inc.' acquisition of digital lottery app Jackpocket, SBVP seized the opportunity to return profits to its limited partners (LPs) and pave the way for its second fund. 💡Engel highlighted the challenges faced by young VC firms in raising subsequent funds, particularly amid a downturn in exit activity and heightened investor scrutiny. With traditional exit routes becoming increasingly elusive, the pressure is on for firms to demonstrate tangible returns and establish a track record of success. ✨"For us, secondary sales have been a game-changer. They've helped us return profits to our LPs and attract investors for our second fund," said Dan Engel. 💰For SBVP, the decision to pursue secondary sales was driven by the need to provide liquidity to LPs and validate its investment thesis in the eyes of prospective investors. By strategically offloading portions of its holdings in high-performing portfolio companies like Bark Technologies and Rad AI, SBVP not only generated substantial returns but also bolstered investor confidence in its ability to deliver results. ⚠Despite the complexities and potential stigma associated with early share sales, Engel emphasized the importance of prioritizing investor returns and seizing opportunities to unlock value for stakeholders. With a focus on profitability and transparency, SBVP remains committed to its mission of delivering sustainable growth and maximizing returns for its LPs. 🔍 "Returning profits to our investors is our top priority. By strategically selling shares, we're proving our commitment to delivering results and driving value for our stakeholders," added Engel. As SBVP continues to explore secondary transactions and expand its investor base, the firm stands as a testament to innovation and resilience in the face of market challenges. 🚀 ✅ Looking to raise capital for your #fund and increase the international pool of your LP #investors?   🤝 Need warm #LP introductions?   📝 Selling #secondaries to increase liquidity?   🧐 Looking for co-investments?   ▶ G+QUANT's link for inquiries and fund decks: https://lnkd.in/gjC_EuTE #VCInnovation #SecondarySalesSuccess #InvestorReturns #ValueCreation 

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