George Benaroya

My interview today on @AlArabiya: i expect only 1 Fed rate cut in Dec given continued strong US growth continued fiscal stimulus & very high Treasury debt issues & election year politics, preceded by @bankofengland & @ecb given lower & falling inflation rates & weaker economies. https://lnkd.in/djN7mpj4

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My weekly column in today's Arab News is about the eighth edition of the Future Investment Initiative. I hope you find it of value. https://lnkd.in/dCpQFnnT

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What a #transformational journey #ModernMills!!! from a Governmental owned body to Private Sector owned by a reputable consortium constitute two of the most reputable family investors #Alrajhi family and #AlGhurair family, to publicly list #MMC in #Tadawul #IPO… It gives me a sense of pride that I was leading a great team were we have marked many milestones in these Three remarkable years: ·      Successful #IPO, with 6 month journey from the date of first advisor engagement signature till successful filing with #CMA with all the complexity of yearend audit, 6 quarters and the availability of data, did not mentioned that MMC was the highest valuation across all other competitors with ~ SAR 600M vs. the second highest MC with the maximum return to our Shareholders. ·      #SAP implementation ·      Policies and Procedures with DOA’s implementation; ·      Accurate financial records with sustainable monthly closure on the 5th calendar day coming from almost nothing; ·      SAR 871M #debt #restructure with ~ SAR 25M to the bottom line and ~ SAR 50M to PV of net future cash flow, in addition to SAR 10M saving on an earlier restructure Though farewells are bittersweet, I reflect on each stop during my professional journey and cherish the wealth of friendships I've built and continue to carry. That continues to be priceless to me. To all my colleagues in #MMC and to esteemed #BOD and Committee Member, thank you for giving me this chance and I hope all the success to MMC as to all of you, till we meet again… And another Journey to Start Soon, الله المستعان #ModernMillsCompany #MMC #CFO #CPA #Tadawul2284 #IPO #Foodsecurity #SaudiArabia #Leadership #المطاحن_الحديثة #اكتتاب #تداول #moelis #HSBC #FTI #PWC #ENBD #CMA #BakerMcKenzie #debtrestructure #transformation #turnaround #growth #SAP #ERP

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Excited for the ALVA10 data team to present their work on how we can make blood based cancer screening (MCED) more palatable for payers, at ISPOR today. In the US and globally, we have rising rates of cancer in younger populations, being driven largely by the obesity epidemic and environmental factors. People born in 1980 are 4X more likely to get cancer than people born in 1950. Colon cancer will be the #1 cause of death in people age 20-49 by 2030, but current guidelines recommend screening start at age 45. Screening rates in the under 55 population are... not good. In the US, that means cancer becomes more of a commercial payer issue every year, yet all the focus is on Medicare. Payers are loathe to pay for additional cancer screening- because their budgets are annual. We can use data, informatics, and genetic information to determine patients who are at elevated risk based on a variety of factors, including genetics, family history, obesity, smoking, and other factors. If we applied blood based cancer screening (sometimes called MCED- multi-cancer early detection) to the population stratified based on risk, instead of age cutoffs that are based on averages, we would 1) detect more relevant cancer earlier, 2) reduce the total cost of cancer care, and 3) improve survival. We know a lot of risk factors that are driving the increased rates of cancer in people under 55. We need to apply that information to screening strategy. ISPOR—The Professional Society for Health Economics and Outcomes Research #diagnostics #precisionmedicine #healtheconomics #cancer

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The #UAE Central Bank has revised its 2024 GDP growth forecast to 4%, up from the previous estimate of 3.9%. This rise is driven by the strength of the non-oil sector and strategic global partnerships. ➤ Global Partnerships, including Cepas agreements with countries like India, Turkey, and South Korea are expected to boost exports by 33% and add Dh153 billion to the economy by 2031. ➤ Tourist arrivals up by 14.2%. Passenger traffic rose 33.8% in Abu Dhabi and 8% in Dubai. ➤ #Dubai’s residential sales (real estate) jumped by 34.8%, while Abu Dhabi saw a 2.3% rise. ➤ Non-Oil Sector is Projected to grow by 5.2% in 2024 and 5.3% in 2025. 👉 These strong non-oil sector developments are crucial for long-term growth. By diversifying, the UAE is reducing its reliance on oil and positioning itself as a resilient economic powerhouse. The continued expansion of #tourism, #trade, and real estate will create more #jobs and attract global #investments, securing the UAE's #leadership in the region. #FredericSelhami #UAEEconomy #UAELeads #GDPGrowth #NonOilSector #EconomicPartnerships

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Happy to share the key highlights from my monthly newsletter titled "Macro and Markets": - GCC markets (S&P GCC Composite) remained flat for the month and the year, with the Real Estate sector shining as an outperformer due to robust sales and increasing property prices in UAE and Saudi Arabia. - Saudi Arabia's equity market performance over the last five years was mainly fueled by P/E expansion, whereas the UAE markets thrived on earnings growth, making them more resilient to market downturns. - Global markets are on a bull run, banking on the FED's inflation assessment for a soft landing. However, history shows that the FED has erred in the past, and a minor economic shock could disrupt the markets. - Gold continues its upward trajectory, supported by emerging market Central Banks' accumulation. Despite significant gains, the yellow metal's surge is not comparable to the U.S. Tech stocks rally, hinting at further potential for growth. - Opting for stock picking over passive ETFs might be a more favorable strategy for emerging markets, despite broad market indices favoring developed markets. Emerging markets present numerous undervalued opportunities from a valuation standpoint. #InvestmentInsights #MarketAnalysis #GlobalEconomy #FinanceNews

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In today's dynamic economic environment, Arab family businesses can draw valuable lessons from visionary leaders like Elon Musk, who exemplify how embracing an aggressive approach to risk can drive diversification and growth. By cultivating a similar mindset, family business leaders can enhance their competitiveness and ensure long-term sustainability in a rapidly evolving market. Elon Musk’s ventures, such as Tesla and SpaceX, showcase the power of calculated risk-taking. Musk has consistently pushed the boundaries of innovation, even when faced with significant challenges. By fostering a culture of experimentation and openness to failure, he has sparked groundbreaking advancements in electric vehicles and space travel. I believe Arab family businesses can learn from this approach by encouraging their teams to embrace creative solutions and view setbacks as opportunities for learning rather than reasons for blame. To facilitate a culture of risk-taking, family businesses must address and dismantle the pervasive culture of blame first that often stifles creativity and innovation. In many organizations, fear of repercussions for failure can deter leaders from taking bold actions. By promoting accountability and emphasizing collective learning over individual blame, leaders can create an environment where team members feel empowered to share ideas and pursue growth opportunities without fear. Open dialogue about risks and transparent discussions around outcomes are essential for fostering this culture. Moreover, diversification is crucial for managing risks in volatile markets. Family businesses should actively seek to expand their portfolios across industries and geographic regions, reducing reliance on single markets. Similar to Musk’s strategic expansion from electric vehicles to solar energy and space exploration, family leaders can identify new avenues for growth that align with their existing competencies. Incorporating advanced technologies for risk assessment can further empower these businesses. Insightful data analytics can uncover opportunities and potential pitfalls, enabling informed decision-making. This strategic alignment with technology not only mitigates risks but also positions family businesses to innovate and evolve continually. Arab family businesses can significantly enhance their growth trajectories by adopting an aggressive approach to risk. By fostering a culture that embraces risk, addressing culture there is in many organisations and investing in right leadership and technological capabilities, these businesses can achieve sustainable success and preserve their legacies for future generations. #FamilyBusiness #RiskManagement #Leadership #GrowthStrategy #MiddleEastEconomy #Entrepreneurship

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Discussion on Bloomberg Asharq on global and emerging market debt markets and a do-it-yourself studio The link below is to my live interview on Bloomberg Asharq on global and regional (MENA region) interest rates and the trends and demand outlook for debt. We discussed that there has been an increase in demand for emerging market debt and noted specific countries globally, as well as Egypt. I noted that overall inflows to emerging market debt and equities have risen (mostly in 2024) and also noted that the relatively low levels of market liquidity have had a greater impact on the upside in equity pricing. Overall flows into emerging markets are still not back to levels of previous cycles – although this may (and should) change. I added that historically a number of markets had disappointed investors more than once. In emerging markets and the institutional memory hinders stronger flows as yet. We discussed the UAE, the GCC markets, Egypt and South American markets. We also discussed the US debt markets and I noted rising concern about the signs of the consumer market looking stretched and concerns about the outcome of the US presidential election later this year which may lead investors into looking to take a more conservative approach in their asset allocation with regard to their US debt exposure. Finally, I was travelling when I was asked to do the interview and I used sticky tape to hold up my mobile phone rather precariously on a lampstand in an hotel room for the over 12 minute interview (I had not expected the interview to be quite so long), so forgive the light quality. The tape held, thank goodness. #debt #equity #emergingmarkets #centralbanks #yield #interestrates #USA #GCC #UAE #Egypt #capitalmarkets #outlook #economics #economy #latinamerica #SaudiArabia https://lnkd.in/e_i3DWma

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👉 #UAE showed remarkable economic growth in Q4 2023 and looks forward to more consistent #GDP growth in 2024. Here's a comprehensive overview of recent economic performance and numbers released: ➤ Non-oil GDP surged 6.7% in the same period, according to data from the Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Centre. ➤ Financial and insurance activities, transportation and storage, real estate and construction sectors were among the top growth sectors. ➤ The UAE, known as one of the world's top oil exporters, has been accelerating its plans to diversify its economy. This strategic move has led to non-oil GDP now representing over 70% of the overall growth contribution, a clear indication of the country's potential for foreign investment. ➤ Real GDP growth is estimated at 3.6% in 2023, according to Reuters calculations, with non-oil GDP growth at 6.2% amid a decline in oil activity last year on lower production and prices, which weighed on all regional oil and gas producers. ➤ The Fund has raised its preliminary forecast for GDP growth in 2024 to 4% from the 3.5% projected in its last Regional Economic Outlook report published in April. ➤ In April, a Reuters poll of economists also forecast the UAE's GDP growth at 4% in 2024, the fastest among Gulf peers. 👉 The focus on diversifying the economy beyond traditional sectors is commendable. By investing in renewable energy and advanced technologies, there is a strong foundation for sustainable growth. The robust performance of the non-oil sector demonstrates the effectiveness of these efforts. This proactive approach to economic resilience and adaptability is something that other countries and companies can learn from. However, the country has a great ability to withstand external challenges and higher interest rates. #FredericSelhami #UAEeconomy #financialinsights #nonoileconomy #NonoilGDP #UAEeconomicgrowth #businessgrowth #Opportunitiesunlimited

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Encouraging climate stories emerge in the unlikeliest of places. I was listening to a podcast about Lebanon's struggling economy this past week. The country's currency has lost a staggering 98% of its value (compared to the dollar) since 2019. That is a monumental economic blow for any country, let alone one facing millions of migrants escaping from one neighbor (Syria) and the risk of outright war with another neighbor (Israel). In the podcast, the hosts were explaining how economic instability has created a viscous feedback look with the electrical grid, with blackouts becoming increasingly regular. And they offered an example of how, in response to the economic crisis, Hezbollah has built its own banking services that are not tied to the actual Lebanese government. And one of the things that Hezbollah has finance packages set up for are: solar panels + battery systems. You know what's different about a solar panel + battery system? It's not a diesel generator. This is what struck me. Solar + battery costs have gotten so low and reliability so good, that its now the energy source of choice to make up for an unreliable grid. There's a lot of handwringing right now in climate circles that despite the progress for decarbonization in the Global North (or as others would put it, the Global Minority), that the rapidly growing demand for energy in the emerging economies of the Global South will lock in fossil fuel emissions for decades to come. The hope in climate circles are stories like this. Where the economics behind cheap solar panels + batteries unlocks a technological leapfrog. Where when weighing the costs and benefits, installing decentralized renewables plus batteries outweighs centralized large scale coal + gas plants and the required grid infrastructure. Truly tragic what is happening in Lebanon and the entire region right now. But hopefully, at least on the climate front, a story like this shows where the electricity trends are heading. https://lnkd.in/grX6EQ7c

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The unfolding challenges & opportunities Lebanon faces as it adapts to a post-Assad reality . . . The collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime has profound implications for Lebanon, touching every aspect of its socio-political and economic fabric. This document dives deep into the unfolding challenges and opportunities Lebanon faces as it adapts to a post-Assad reality. Through a brief exploration of refugee dynamics, labor market disruptions, geopolitical shifts, and economic recalibrations, it provides an insightful roadmap for understanding the complexities ahead. With Lebanon at a critical crossroads, this analysis is essential reading for policymakers, scholars, and anyone invested in the future of the Middle East. Dive in to explore how Lebanon can turn crises into opportunities for a more resilient future.   #Lebanon #Syria #Refugees #LebanonInTransition #PostAssadEra #MiddleEastFuture #RefugeeCrisisSolutions #LebanonEconomicRecovery #GeopoliticalShift #LaborMarketImpact #RegionalStability #SyriaReconstruction #LebanonAtCrossroads #NewNormal UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency European Commission

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A Dubai-based fund-of-funds focused on backing emerging venture investors, has raised $5 million of the $10 million target for its debut fund. Amkan Ventures is connecting family offices in the Gulf region and emerging U.S.-based VCs — two groups unlikely to otherwise meet. A fund led by Female GP Raida Daouk El Jisr decided to raise a fund after helping a number of family offices and other institutions vet and invest in American venture firms and tech startups as a consultant and building out another prior employer's portfolio. #fundraising #investment #GCC #USfunds #venturecapitalists #limitedpartners #generalpartners #Funds #LPs #GPs #VCs #emergingfunds #fundmangergs

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Saudi PIF Nears Deal to Invest in PGA Tour Enterprises : Sovereign wealth fund is in advanced talks for roughly 6% : PIF investment could value unit at about $12 billion

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Interview on Al Arabiya News Channel with Lara Habib earlier today discussing the Fed's interest rate decision today: Under the new US administration, there is a clear policy shift towards reducing government spending and increasing efficiency in fiscal operations. This approach will likely lead to a lower neutral rate for the economy. As a result, the Federal Reserve may need to adjust its monetary stance, requiring lower interest rates to maintain economic equilibrium. Until now, the Federal Reserve's high interest rates were counterbalanced by robust deficit spending by the US government. This fiscal policy translated into the broader economy with a significant multiplier effect, mitigating the restrictive impact of monetary tightening. However, with a reduction in government spending, this balancing act will diminish, necessitating a recalibration of monetary policy. Over the longer term, the new administration's trade policies, particularly the introduction of tariffs, will likely have inflationary consequences. Tariffs raise the cost of imported goods, contributing to upward price pressures across the economy. This could, in turn, require the Federal Reserve to adopt higher interest rates to counteract inflationary forces. Taking these factors into account, we anticipate final interest rates to stabilize in the range of 3.5% to 3.75% by 2025, reflecting the combined influence of reduced fiscal stimulus and inflationary trade policies. Thank you Hanya Amr for having me again.

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Interview on Al Arabiya News Channel yesterday with Nouf Hijazi discussing the US and biggest risk for 2025: - Some cracks are showing in the US data, from one side the consumer is showing resilience and GDP growth remains strong, however, Chicago PMI dropped to 40, which is a drop seen in major adverse periods like the pandemic. Sustained deficit government spending remains the strongest proponent of the continued economic strength and consumer spending, with the magical multiplier effect producing $2 of economic activity for each $1 of government money spent - The retreat in stocks is on the back of Core PCE showing resilience and a big jump in the latest reading, as well as the strong job numbers. We do not believe US stocks are pricing geopolitical mounting pressures, with the US deploying missiles in Okinawa (Japan) and the Philippines a few days back, to counter China's moves towards Taiwan - In light of 2025's biggest risks, which we think are geopolitical, the best hedge remains gold, gold and gold! Thank you Hanya Amr for having me again.

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