Ian Bremmer

This policy analysis by Middle East Institute on America's strategic drift in the Middle East is damning--and is precisely what we analysts and journalists on the ground have been warning of for months. "This strategic drift in US policy is a direct result of the Biden administration’s wishful thinking and unwillingness to exert leverage through diplomacy backed by a coherent regional security approach. As a result, the United States has been unable to achieve nearly any of its stated diplomatic and security outcomes. America’s lack of strategic focus and will to take actions aimed at fundamentally shifting the dynamics in the region, a condition that predated the Biden administration, has incentivized regional actors to turn toward violence rather than choose a diplomatic path." https://lnkd.in/dbK4fuDP #Israel #Gaza #Palestinians #Biden #MiddleEast #foreignpolicy

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In my latest column, I discuss the intensifying conflict in the Middle East and suggest that Iran's support for HAMAS and its recent missile attack on Israel are part of its campaign to derail the peace negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. https://lnkd.in/ePaCBNYH

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https://lnkd.in/dNQp8S2A "Given the Conservatives’ support for national sovereignty and distaste for political utopias, we might imagine that they would be exclusively hostile to these kinds of radical ideas. That was not the case. While there were those who bemoaned these ‘brave new worlders’, others were more sympathetic and put forward bold ideas of the future. Alongside support for European political integration and a revived League of Nations, some even supported the most utopian idea of the era: world government."

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The United States is looking to boost intelligence collection in the Arctic and enhance cooperation with allies in the region, to prevent Russia and China from exploiting the cold and icy northern region at America’s expense. The mandate, part of the Pentagon’s just-released 2024 Arctic Strategy, comes as U.S. defense officials warn climate change is melting Arctic ice that used to keep adversaries at bay, and there are indications of growing Russian-Chinese cooperation in the region, as my Voice of America colleague, Jeff Seldin, reports here from Washington. #arctic #defensestrategy #russia #china #voa https://lnkd.in/eFG3pVMx

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How and where do American Diplomats train? Rather than try to be all-encompassing, this video of the Secretary of State visiting the Foreign Service Institute earlier this year is a good place to start. #diplomacy #altac #lifelonglearning

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Nowhere have the impacts of the six-month delay to the Ukraine aid bill been more obvious than in the country’s skies. As Ukraine burned through its supplies of donated air defense missiles, more and more Russian bombs and missiles slipped through the net, forcing Kyiv to make difficult decisions about what to protect. The result? Civilians killed in city centers, frontline soldiers under aerial bombardment, and energy infrastructure on its knees. More destruction could be to come until the aid arrives. Thanks to everyone I spoke to for this piece, examining the military and civilian implications of Ukraine’s equipment shortages. https://lnkd.in/eXW3JJMD

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Operation Overload Impersonates Media to Influence 2024 US Election October 23, 2024, Recorded Future https://lnkd.in/ew2j4CMD Operation Overload, a Russia-aligned influence operation, is aggressively targeting the 2024 US presidential election. Using fake news, fact-checking sites, and AI-generated audio, it seeks to manipulate public opinion by impersonating trusted media organizations. This campaign primarily targets media outlets, fact-checkers, and researchers, aiming to overwhelm investigative resources and insert false narratives into mainstream discourse, but also directly targets the general public. Operation Overload previously attempted to undermine the 2024 French elections and the Paris Olympics, although with minimal success. Its goal now is to undermine trust in the US election process, exploit divisive social issues, stoke fears of political violence, and target candidates, particularly Vice President Kamala Harris. Operation Overload, also known as Matryoshka and Storm-1679, is a sophisticated Russia-aligned influence campaign designed to manipulate public opinion and sow discord. Previously attempting to undermine the 2024 French elections and the Paris Olympics, the operation is now shifting its focus to the 2024 US presidential election. It involves creating fake news sites, false fact-checking resources, and AI-generated audio that mimics legitimate media outlets. By impersonating trusted news organizations, the operation seeks to establish credibility to influence its targets more effectively. Operation Overload Impersonates Media to Influence 2024 US Election: https://lnkd.in/envinUZC

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The Center for a New American Security (CNAS) Middle East Security program hosted a hybrid roundtable to examine opportunities for greater U.S.-Japan policy cooperation in the Middle East. The last two U.S. national security strategies emphasized the challenges posed by China, Russia, and Iran, and the importance of U.S. partnerships and alliances. I believe there are unexplored opportunities for the United States to animate and leverage the strategic advantage of its allies and partners around the globe for mutual gain— not just parochially within their given region. The United States and Japan have a long history of cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, but our nations have shared interests in the Middle East as well. We explored how both nations can leverage the alliance to pursue the mutual goals of peace and stability in Middle East. The dialogue yielded many potential opportunities to expand U.S.-Japanese collaboration, including through humanitarian missions, peace-building and mediation, increased anti-piracy and maritime security activity, cultural diplomacy, cybersecurity, and coordinated investments in energy infrastructure and renewable energy. https://lnkd.in/eAJEN2_q 

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My very latest: Green New Deal policies and spending to constrain fossil fuels are great for China-Russia-Iran axis, enabling and prolonging Russia's and Iran's wars on Ukraine and Israel, respectively. All this while the West's CO2 reductions are negligible in comparison to increases by China, India and the rest of the world

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Very important and timely discussion with strong arguments for and against for an informed decision.

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When do threats to democracy cross the line into espionage and national security? How do unregistered foreign agents hurt our fragile liberties in 2024? "Who buttered up the pork of corruption that Menendez handed over to the American public? Why are none of us asking these questions? In major criminal operations, there are always multiple parties involved in the planning and execution of complex plots. So why do we pretend that Menendez and his wife, along with two businessmen, acted all on their own? Was his staff so incompetent they didn’t know he was taking private, questionable calls from Egyptian intelligence officers? As a diplomat, if I had had the Consul General or U.S. Ambassador hosting Egyptian intelligence officers at their office, I would have immediately reported this to diplomatic security or the FBI. As a matter of fact, in 2022 I did report one of my federal colleagues to a government agency when I suspected they had inappropriate contact with Russian state actors. It was my duty, both as an American and as an officer that had sworn an oath to the Constitution. Do the staff working at senators’ offices not have this sort of training, or are they simply not sufficiently skilled in exercising sound judgment when dealing with the intricate sensitivity of international relations?"

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Chinese markets present enticing opportunities for U.S. investors, yet investing in China may inadvertently support the Chinese Communist Party's military initiatives. NTD’s Steve Lance explores this critical issue with Brian Cavanaugh, senior vice president at American Global Strategies and former special assistant for national security affairs.

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"A nuclear microreactor, like Radiant’s Kaleidos, is ideally suited for such a task. It’s designed to be power-dense, easily fortified, and able to be rapidly transported by truck or aircraft (they are the size of a shipping container). Once on-site, a reactor can generate power for years without refueling. Need more power, bring in a second reactor." #microreactor #nuclear #defense https://lnkd.in/eJmqaf8j

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The recent significant progress of troops in Ukraine has cast a shadow over the optimism in the pro Kiev faction after the approval of additional aid by the US Congress in April. The fervent plea for assistance and the exaggerated significance attached to it now feel like memories. It is now more evident than ever that Ukraines struggling war efforts cannot be resolved simply by resuming aid flow. Why did policymakers in Washington view the $60 billion amount as a solution to prevent the crisis? https://lnkd.in/eFkQyDZt

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For New Left Review this week, I wrote on the UAE, its positioning within the global economy, and its relation to American empire. Where emergent tensions with Washington would appear to be the result of the Emirates' ties to Russia and China, I argue that they instead stem from the United States clumsily disavowing the neoliberal order it once presided over. https://lnkd.in/eWyja3Xs #geopolitics #politicaleconomy #MiddleEast #riskanalysis

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Cuba’s Place in the New Cold War… A new article by Garrett Campbell focuses on this question, a central premises being: “…Cuba’s willingness to play a role in Putin’s theater of escalation matters. The West needs to better understand how Cuba fits within Russian strategic thinking…” Only point not raised - China’s presence in Cuba… It too sees Cuba as a platform to undermine the U.S. and apply strategic pressure as it ups the tensions in Asia. In this regard Russian and China are fully aligned in what to do with Cuba. See the article here: https://lnkd.in/e7MScb2d

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