Ian Picache

Excited to announce our investment in Alta Resource Technologies alongside Leonardo Banchik (Voyager Ventures) with participation from Orion Resource Partners, Overture Ventures, and WovenEarth Ventures. Rare earths are critical in products from magnets to ceramics and it's important for the US to develop its own supply chain. While the US has some of the best rare earth resources, separating them has historically proven expensive and environmentally unfriendly. Alta through it's computationally designed and optimized proteins allows the US to bring back rare earth production with a cleaner, lower capex, and lower opex solution - and that's just the beginning. Congrats to Nathan Ratledge and the entire Alta team. Read more here: https://lnkd.in/gbGnAJn3

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The Silver Tsunami is upon us, and it's reshaping the mergers and acquisitions landscape like never before. With an estimated $10 trillion in assets set to change hands over the next decade, driven by baby boomers retiring, the opportunity for savvy investors and entrepreneurs is immense. Currently, around 30,000 businesses sell annually, but with more than 8 million baby boomer-owned businesses expected to transition, the volume of transactions could increase tenfold. This is a monumental shift that smart buyers are already preparing for. You don't need to be a Wall Street titan to benefit from this trend; many of these businesses will transition to local entrepreneurs and small business owners. Are you ready to seize a piece of this $10 trillion wealth transfer? Position yourself strategically to take advantage of this unprecedented wave of opportunities. Engage with fellow professionals and explore how you can be part of this transformation. Not sure how? Let's talk about it! #SilverTsunami #MergersAndAcquisitions #BusinessOpportunities

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Here’s a question investors are often asked: When evaluating early stage companies, how much time do you spend on due diligence around future exits? It’s not surprising we hear this question a lot. Also not surprising: it’s got a wide range of answers depending on the firm. Some don’t spend much time here at all. Others make it a point to put meaningful time in as part of their process. Our current thinking: take the time to do the work on public market comps. At Alpaca VC, we spend significant time understanding how public market investors will  realistically value a business based on margin profile, product, business model & TAM. In short, we want to know: how will this company be valued at scale when we get taken out? Yes, we can acknowledge that the journey toward exit is a windy road and that there may be pivots along the way, but there are still public market companies that have a business model similar to the early stage company you're evaluating. And you can always look at gross profit multiples if you think the margin profile will change over time. So we still do the work on the comps. Quantitative metrics we look at when making the comparison to public market comps include EBITDA multiple, revenue multiple, Gross Profit multiple or all of the above. As part of this process, it’s also important to factor in the public market company’s year-over-year revenue growth as this will also significantly impact the multiple it trades at. Simple example: if you have two public market companies with similar business models and similar margin profiles, but one's growing 100% year over year, and one's growing 50% year over year, then obviously the DCF (discounted cash flow) analysis is going to spit out a very different valuation for the one that's growing faster. Why this matters: When you take all of that information into account as you evaluate an early stage business, you can begin to create a realistic picture of how this company will be valued in the public markets at exit - or how an acquirer will value the company for an acquisition. Strategic acquirers may, of course, pay a premium, but we won’t underwrite for that. This allows us, for example, to form conviction around valuation based on revenue and gross profit predictions. If we think they can do $100M of revenue five years from now, we use this diligence process to form a thesis about whether the characteristics above (product, margin, business model, etc.) will cause the company to be valued at $200M vs. $500M vs. $1B at exit. Curious how other early stage investors think about underwriting an exit and how much time they’re spending on public market comps even though these companies are in their infancy.

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During our Annual Investor Day, we discussed a trend we’ve been observing in the VC market: Funds increasingly using “extra downside protection” to compensate for slow growth & inflated valuations of companies. We’re now starting to see some skeletons come out of the closet (and, ironically, they might be the driving force that will re-open the IPO window). First one out: ServiceTitan https://lnkd.in/eNMuPAe6 ps: despite the compounding IPO ratchet structure, I believe ServiceTitan is a solid company and, at the right price (factoring in all adjustments), it's a great deal!

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Is Now the Best Time to Raise a Private Equity Fund? According to industry leaders, it just might be. "I’m much more optimistic at this point in the cycle in 2024 than I was in 2023 and 2022," says Andy Lund, global co-head of Houlihan Lokey's Private Funds Group. Despite expectations of a slowdown, the first half of 2024 has been unexpectedly successful for PE managers raising capital. U.S.-based funds closed on $155 billion by the end of June, slightly ahead of the first half of 2023 (PitchBook Q2 2024 US PE Breakdown). Alex Russ, head of North America for Evercore's Private Funds Group, sees this as an ideal moment for GPs with open funds. "We saw fewer new fundraise launches in 2024 than in 2022 and 2023, leading to a slight easing, which we expect to continue into the second half of this year," he notes. However, challenges remain. LP capital is still largely locked until M&A and exit activities resume. Evercore anticipates flat PE fundraising figures for 2024 compared to 2023. Moreover, other asset classes are vying for already limited institutional capital, with private credit showing particularly strong growth. In this context, Maria Konnikova’s "The Biggest Bluff" offers an insightful analogy. Inspired by "Theory of Games and Economic Behavior" by John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern, the book explores von Neumann's belief that poker epitomizes the delicate balance between skill and chance that governs life. Doing well at poker isn’t just about playing well; it’s about playing well relative to everyone else. And even with the best strategies, luck plays a critical role. As Nobel-winning economist Daniel Kahneman notes, "The successful funds in any given year are mostly lucky; they have a good roll of the dice. There is general agreement among researchers that nearly all stock pickers, whether they know it or not—and few of them do—are playing a game of chance." The last two years were like drawing a bad hand in poker for those raising funds. The book also emphasizes the importance of thinking like a Strategist—something I’ve honed throughout my career. Each move requires reassessment based on new information. You need a plan that evolves with feedback and supports long-term, good decision-making. If you’ve lost your chips, was it due to an unlucky situation—or because your strategy was flawed? A recurring mantra of Poker Hall of Famer Erik Seidel is "less certainty, more inquiry." If that becomes your guiding principle, not only will you actively listen, but you will also adapt and grow. For GPs, strengthening relationships with existing LPs is more crucial than ever. Now is the time to leverage your learnings and craft compelling narratives that showcase your commitment to value creation and strategic growth. By highlighting your firm's ability to navigate complex market dynamics, you can strengthen LP alignment and foster the partnerships needed for long-term success.

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Check out my recent post on why President Trump is the forcing function for us to solve the “Missing Middle” and catch the industrial Tsunami of onshoring coming to the US!

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Friends, Q2 was a quarter of progress and learning for us at HawkTower, where we invest in early-stage startups applying breakthrough computing technologies to maximize California's natural resource markets. Our focus is on technology-enabled interventions (e.g., AI-enabled geospatial radars for lithium-ion batteries in the waste stream) for critical, market-level imperatives (e.g., disaster prevention) that can drive rapid commercial adoption (e.g., placed on every recycling truck in the world). Our current investment priorities are: - Agricultural productivity and efficiency - Biomanufacturing - Labor and mobility automation - Waste stream optimization and decarbonization - Disaster prevention and management Here’s a snapshot of what we’ve been up to: Milestones and Investments: - In late April, we officially launched our fund, filing with the SEC. Yay. - By June, we completed our first fund close ahead of schedule, with backing from family offices, foundations, high-net-worth individuals, and organizations aligned with California's future. - Our portfolio now includes three early-stage investments (Farm-ng, Agriful Software, and Nexstera Tech). Strategic Partnerships: - We believe that startups operating closer to their customers and resources, especially in agriculture and biomanufacturing, have a strategic advantage. For instance, the Salinas Valley, a major agricultural hub, is less than an hour from Silicon Valley and serves as a center of thought leadership in the convergence of agriculture and AI (from Western Growers, Taylor Farms, and others). - Similarly, the North San Joaquin Valley is emerging as a biotech and agtech innovation hub, and we are proud to support BEAM Circular, a startup hub for the circular bioeconomy. Key Relationships: - Karen Warner, CEO of BEAM Circular, joined HawkTower as a strategic advisor. - Jackie Cruz, Ed. D. Cruz, Hartnell College’s VP of Advancement, advises on Salinas Valley and workforce development. - Ben Palone from Western Growers, with his technical background in agriculture, became a trusted advisor. - Matthew Hoffman from Driscoll's Global R&D team provides insights on global agriculture, product positioning, and investment strategy. - We collaborated with Monterey Bay DART for workforce development and automation in agtech. - Dominic Milano and the Milano Technical Group from Merced collaborated on key initiatives and advised us on investments. - HawkTower is participating in Santa Cruz Works's accelerator cohort as a mentor and advisor. Thank you Doug Erickson. - We published an overview of entrepreneurship across the UC system with input from across the University of California system. Moving into the fall, we remain deeply committed to supporting founders shaping California's future natural resource markets. Stay tuned and be in touch! : ) Db

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Excited to join industry leaders in LA to explore the future of non-traditional investments. I’ll be speaking at the Private Wealth Southern California Forum, hosted by Markets Group, on 12 November. Together, we’ll discuss how innovations in alternative assets are reshaping the investment landscape. Thank you to Markets Group for providing the platform to explore these transformative developments. #PrivateEquity #Innovation #Technology #Entrepreneurship #VentureCapital #Investing #Finance #Alternatives #Startups #Speaker

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I recently saw this metric from Carta’s 1Q24 VC Fund Report, which is very concerning. DPI... is nowhere to be found in earlier vintages that probably should start showing DPI. Funding early-stage projects is great, but ultimately, these venture dollars need to exit their investments and pay back their limited partners. That’s where the metric Distributed to Paid-In Capital (DPI) comes in. While managing a fund, we get interim measures during the life of the fund (e.g. IRR, MOIC), but ultimately, “you can’t eat IRR.” If you want to build a lasting venture capital organization, you need to start showing DPI for your fund. Keep in mind that this is traditional VC data from Carta, and is not strictly crypto venture. Crypto venture tends to get liquidity earlier (tokens) and things tend to go parabolic sooner (faster, more unicorns) - but I’d wager that the data here is somewhat similar for Crypto VCs… Not as much DPI as there should be from these earlier vintages. Read the full article, as well as a recap of all the crypto fundraising rounds for August, here: https://lnkd.in/g3eVJ-iF

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Markets talk. We listen. We've from heard from capital allocators (#VC, #PrivateEquity, #FamilyOffices....even #VentureStudios, #Incubators and #Accelerators) that due diligence is a bottleneck to deal flow. It's time-consuming, expensive and often, subjective. We've launched #VentureIQ by the 9point8 Collective to directly address this problem. VentureIQ is an AI-enabled diligence solution that provides rapid scale diligence reports with exceptional fidelity and demonstrable cost efficiency - all within a single business day. We're in our soft launch, now. So, if you want to gain back valuable time and expose the long tail of deal flow diligence, shoot me a DM or visit VentureIQ.ai.

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Rethinking Value Creation in Private Equity Having been immersed in the private equity landscape, I've observed a notable shift in how we approach value creation. The traditional levers—revenue growth, margin expansion, and multiple expansion—are now under greater scrutiny than ever before. From 2013 to 2023, nearly half of the value creation in global buyout deals came from multiple expansion, with revenue growth contributing 53%. However, margin expansion accounted for less than 1%. It's clear that we can no longer rely heavily on multiple expansion as a primary driver of enterprise value. Instead, we must shift our focus towards often overlooked areas, particularly margin expansion, and redefine value creation to include equity value and the strategic use of free cash flow for debt reduction throughout the investment cycle. Key Areas to Focus On: -Revenue Growth: In buy-and-build strategies, especially in the lower middle market, there are abundant opportunities for top-line growth. Professionalizing sales forces, optimizing customer acquisition channels, and expanding product/service lines—whether organically or through acquisitions—can also lead to meaningful margin expansion. -Margin Expansion: While cost-cutting is a well-known method, it’s often unsustainable. By focusing on service lines with higher recurring margins and driving synergies through buy-and-build strategies, we can achieve more sustainable margin improvements. -Multiple Expansion: Although its role will be more limited, opportunities still exist, particularly in the lower middle market. Managing cost-basis and pursuing accretive add-ons can still result in multiple expansion, especially when platforms scale and achieve a premium upon exit. -Net Debt Reduction: With the rising cost of debt, free cash flow becomes a critical focus. Setting value objectives that increase FCF allows PORTCOs to pay down debt over the investment's life, enhancing equity returns. Deciding whether to use excess FCF for debt reduction or reinvestment should be guided by a thorough ROI analysis. The future of value creation in private equity is about more than just numbers—it's about making strategic shifts towards margin expansion and prudent financial management to ensure sustainable growth and strong returns in an increasingly competitive market. #PrivateEquity #ValueCreation #InvestmentStrategy #RevenueGrowth #MarginExpansion #MultipleExpansion #NetDebtReduction #BuyAndBuild #LowerMiddleMarket #PE #FinancialManagement #BusinessGrowth #PortfolioManagement

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VC world can be cruel and unforgiving. With LPs more and more pushing for distribution and liquidity, fund managers in the mid-tenure of their fund with zero DPI and TVPI around 1.0 would have much more difficulty to raise new fund. The ability to fundraise is one of the crucial indications and validation of the job for VCs. Key highlights from the article below: Thirteen percent of venture General Partners (GPs) no longer plan to raise another fund due to LP pullback. This rate has doubled since H1 2023 when only 6% of GPs had no plans for another fund. Nearly 44% of venture firms surveyed in mid-2023 had previously postponed their fundraising plans due to concerns about overexposure to the asset class. Many emerging managers entered venture capital in 2019 or 2020 when the LP market supported more funds. However, slow exits in the first half of 2024 have led to challenges in raising second funds without significant cash distributions to LPs. Some venture GPs are now actively participating in the secondaries market to demonstrate returns. Despite the challenges, GPs who secured fresh capital remain optimistic. They expect the 2023 and 2024 vintages to be the strongest return years since 2019. 🚀📈 #VC #VentureCapital #Fundraising #LPs #EmergingManagers #TechInvestment #MarketTrends #CountdownCapital #IndustryInsights #JetVentures #JetInvestment‍‍‍‍‍‍

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"Small funds may have more incentive to produce higher returns The alignment of incentives between GP and LP varies drastically based on fund size. Managers of smaller funds who have invested substantial personal capital demonstrate an unwavering commitment to lucrative returns, while managers at the helm of colossal funds, buoyed by significant management fees, may exhibit a diminishing drive. This constitutes an almost incontrovertible structural benefit of managing a small VC fund. Furthermore, fund managers of established funds may, over time, raise larger subsequent funds and grow more risk averse. This can present a sub-optimal outcome for their LPs and, by virtue, manifests a bad omen for VC investing." https://lnkd.in/gHKgea4e

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Having a Cars and Capital event tomorrow in Southern California with Oren Klaff. If you want to join message me. https://lnkd.in/gDQ4D39u Oren Klaff Bridger Pennington #InvestorEvent #FamilyOffice #InvestmentOpportunity #CarlsbadEvent #PrivateEquity #WealthManagement #InvestmentConference #CapitalRaising #NetworkingEvent #IndustryLeaders #FinancialGrowth #InvestorsMeetup #WealthBuilding #BusinessGrowth #InvestmentForum

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Kettleborough VC has been active for ~6 years, invested in ~30 companies, gone through ~80 funding rounds, witnessed ~12 exits including ~4 instances of partial principal erosion, seen ~4 seed to $100M journeys, tracking ~29% XIRR across the portfolio. A couple of IPOs from the portfolio surely seem very much in line ahead.

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As the IPO window remains shut and other paths to liquidity (buyout and M&A) remain compressed, the Cerebras Systems S-1 filing is a cautious welcome sign for the venture capital asset class. As the first "pure play" generative AI company to go public since ChatGPT's release, this marks what could the beginning of a new technology IPO wave. The company is making the bold attempt to take NVIDIA head on: ✅ Cerebras has developed a novel wafer-scale AI chip that is 57x larger than a GPU with 7,000x the on-chip memory  📈 Revenue grew a an incredible 1,122% YoY to $70M in latest quarter 💰 Blue-chip technology investors including Benchmark, Coatue, and Altimeter But the S-1 filing also reveals some notable challenges and risks: 🚩 83% of revenue came from a single customer in 2023 🗳️ Possible CFIUS scrutiny over their relationship with an Emirati company 🧑‍💼 CEO named in prior SEC enforcement action in early 2000s We will continue to keep an eye out for more details in the coming months around IPO pricing and the company’s regulatory squabbles, but in the meantime, please enjoy the full essay below.

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It’s fascinating to see how the role of investors is evolving from merely providing capital to becoming integral mentors and strategic partners for startups. This shift not only highlights the importance of relationships but also underscores that today’s investors are looking for alignment in vision and values with the companies they back. As investors seek a deeper understanding of the startups they engage with, it raises some questions: How can founders effectively communicate their unique value propositions and foster meaningful connections? What qualities should startups look for in potential investors to ensure a fruitful partnership? #AngelInvesting #Startups #Entrepreneurship

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What's the fast river in alts? Listen to the latest Alt Goes Mainstream podcast with Mercer's Gregg Sommer & CAIS' Neil Blundell to hear how they are helping advisors approach private markets. Gregg, Neil, and I had a fascinating discussion about how the wealth channel can approach alternatives and how they can think about both diligence and customization. We covered: * The case for alternatives. * How advisors currently approach alternatives and how they can think about it differently going forward. * How to think about portfolio construction that includes alternatives. * How alts can help advisors differentiate their practice and attract clients. * Following the fast river in a career and why alternatives are “the fast river.” * The meaning of “structure over strategy.” * The rise in popularity of evergreen funds. Thanks Gregg and Neil for sharing your thoughts and expertise on private markets. Thanks to our sponsor, Ultimus Fund Solutions, for making this episode possible. https://lnkd.in/eBtyw6Fm

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118 VCs (one hundred eighteen!) are gathering in San Diego next week - to meet with 30 SD startups. But it's so MUCH bigger than just those 30 co's. It brings VCs back - when they see quality companies. It helps those who are next-in-line and adjacent. It enables us to send deal flow all year 'round. It attracts talent and other companies. It inspires entrepreneurship. Connect is working for SD. Together, we're building the best damn innovation ecosystem on the planet. Year over year. Five.Ten.Thirty.

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