Ibrahim Kaya

#Private_equity Private equity’s $2 trillion pile of cash is set to fuel M&A opportunities in 2025. Private equity firms are sitting on an unprecedented war chest: roughly $2 trillion in uncalled capital. Often referred to as “dry powder,” this cash pile has been accumulating since the last big global mergers-and-acquisitions blowout, in 2021, when volume reached a whopping $5.9 trillion, according to Dealogic. The following year, activity plummeted 38.8%, and it’s been relatively quiet ever since. “We had a general slowdown in private equity exits in 2023 and 2024,” says Alain Dermarkar, US co-head of Private Equity at global law firm A&O Shearman. High interest rates were an issue; steep borrowing costs and lower returns created valuation mismatches, ultimately reducing the size, scope, and appeal of private equity deals. https://lnkd.in/dzxSUYkP

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How does a GP prove they can generate attractive results when they haven't had exits? Some excellent points from Bain & Company's 2024 Private Equity Report.

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Valuable analysis on the MENA #MnA #MidMarket volumes. On the Awad Capital side we also note an increased propensity for founders and business owners to use advisors as they become more sophisticated and focused on optimizing process outcomes. 

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Key Investment Highlights from The Seraphim Space Index Q2 2024 🌌 Let's take a closer look at the key highlights from the latest quarter: 💰 $8.5bn invested in TTM to Q2 2024 👩‍💻 174 deals in Q2 2024 🛰 $2.4bn invested in Q2 2024 🤝 385 deals in Q2 2024 compared to 320 in Q1 2024 🚀 Space Pioneer closed the biggest deal of $208m in Q2 2024 💲 Average deal size is $18m ◾ Median deal size is $5m in Q2 2024 Check out the full Index here - https://lnkd.in/d-vf-mVN

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Andrea Carnelli Dompe' (PhD) Checked the hypothesis used for Alt investments (Exhibit 4, Link to AQR paper: https://lnkd.in/gPTQZqAB). Even if they are estimated, return, volatility and correlation as much more relevant than the ones you can usually found for Alt investments in global portfolio construction. Nice one for AQR Capital Management

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#Family_offices Family offices in North America allocate 35% of the average portfolio to private equity, the highest regionally, according to the UBS Global Family Office Report 2024.  In its latest report, UBS surveyed 320 single-family offices globally with an average net worth of $2.6bn and covering over $600bn of wealth.  By region, family offices in North America allocate 35% of the average portfolio to private equity and 8% for hedge funds; in Latin America, 18% and 2%; in Switzerland, 18% and 3%; in the rest of Europe, 22% and 4%; in the Middle East, 27% and 5%; in North Asia, 18% and 6%; and in Southeast Asia, 19% and 5%. https://lnkd.in/gYA_BMuG

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THE VALUATION PROCESS: 1. Execute Neri Capital's Confidentiality Agreement 2. Execute a Valuation Agreement 3. Provide the following information to the Valuation Specialist: a. 2021- 2023 Income Statements. b. 2024 Income Statement (Year-to-Date). c. 2021- 2023 Balance Sheets ending December 31st each year. d. 2023 Balance Sheet YTD. 4. Complete an interview with the Valuation Specialist. After the business valuation is completed (3 to 4 days after receiving requested information), the Valuation Specialist will provide the business owner(s) with a 30+ page report. Valuation Specialist will review the report with client(s), answer questions, and make recommendations. https://lnkd.in/g4g_WMiA https://nericap.com #businessvaluations #sellsideadvisory #babyboomers

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Positively surprising in spite of all of the market challenges, it seems like there is recovering interest in venture capital as several fund allocators across Asia and the Middle East have asked me recently about events in the US to meet high quality and high potential venture capital fund managers and sophisticated long-term investors and operators in the asset class. It seems like the Allocate event last week in Newport Beach, California is noted as one of those top #quality events by various attendees. #alternativeinvestments #venturecapital #events #institutionalinvestors #california #allocators #limitedpartners #capitalmarkets #fundmanagers #middleeast #asiapacific #lps #privatemarkets #trackrecord #emergingmanagers

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August 21 2024 – 5 Notable Articles To Read Article: Ericsson Reaches Deal to Sell US Firm to Koch Unit Takeaway: Ericsson anticipates receiving approximately $1B in cash after accounting for taxes, transaction costs, and other liabilities as part of the takeover by Koch Equity Development. Source: Bloomberg Link: https://lnkd.in/dBuiTNdC Article: Polish-founded Family Office Invests in Swiss Drone Startup in a €23M B1 Round Takeaway: The Polish-rooted family office RKKVC has invested in the Swiss drone startup Wingtra. Other investors in the round included SymbiaVC family office, Spectrum Moonshot Fund, Cadence Growth Capital (CGC), Spring Mountain Capital, Helvetic Trust, EquityPitcher Ventures, and DiamondStream Partners. Source: The Recursive Link: https://lnkd.in/d8rJbzx3 Article: VC Fund Performance: Q1 2024 Takeaway: Funds from the 2022 vintage have deployed approximately 43% of their committed capital at the 24-month mark, the lowest percentage among the analyzed vintages. Previous vintages had deployed between 47% and 60% of their capital within the same timeframe. Source: Carta Link: https://lnkd.in/dU6YVkDh Article: VC fund returns capture best quarter since 2021, eking out 0.4% gain Takeaway: VC funds posted a modest 0.4% return in Q4 2023, resulting in a 10-year horizon IRR of 13% for the asset class. This performance coincides with a broader uplift in alternatives, as buyout funds, private equity growth, secondaries, and infrastructure all delivered strong results. Source: PitchBook Link: https://lnkd.in/dhz362qH Article: AMD to acquire infrastructure player ZT Systems for $4.9B to amp up its AI ecosystem play Takeaway: The plan is to integrate ZT Systems’ computing infrastructure design business. AMD stated that it intends to sell ZT Systems’ data center infrastructure manufacturing business to “a strategic partner.” Source: TechCrunch Link: https://lnkd.in/dtdYNn2p #news #research #business #ai

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The Market Has Bad Breadth: The Big Point The Rabid Capitalist: The Big Point is a brief summary of a detailed note available to paid subscribers. The Rabid Capitalist has previously noted the risk of a narrow market (see https://lnkd.in/ezp3tu4W). When index performance is concentrated in a small number of stocks, the market is susceptible to collapsing when leaders disappoint. Nvidia, the most magnificent of the magnificent seven stocks, has delivered thirty-one percent of the year to date return in the S & P 500 index, becoming the pillar upon which the broad averages rest. Complete content is available for a $15 monthly subscription. Click here to subscribe: https://lnkd.in/e64BjzyK

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New Classes NYU Stern School of Business in my NYU Stern Executive MBA Program ... Technology in business innovation & Behavioral Finance w/ Prof D'Souza 🔥 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐓𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐚𝐰𝐚𝐲𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐑𝐚𝐢𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥  Ethical Reputation is Paramount Building and maintaining an ethical reputation is the master key to influence. Trust is the foundation of all investor relationships. Build Authority and Preeminence Position yourself as an expert in your niche: thought leadership (e.g., writing books, creating valuable content) to establish authority. 𝐌𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐏𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐨𝐧 𝐏𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐥𝐲 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐞𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞—𝐮𝐩 𝐭𝐨 𝟏𝟔 𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞—𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐧 𝐯𝐢𝐫𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬. 𝐈𝐧-𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐧𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐛𝐮𝐢𝐥𝐝 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐨𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐟𝐚𝐜𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐛𝐞𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐝𝐞𝐚𝐥-𝐦𝐚𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠. Present opportunities consistent with your investment history to increase influence. 𝐀𝐬𝐤 𝐐𝐮𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐋𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐧 𝐒𝐩𝐞𝐧𝐝 𝟔𝟎% 𝐨𝐟 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬 asking questions to understand investor needs. Tailor your presentation to address their specific interests and concerns. Provide Value Before Pitching Offer something beneficial to investors upfront (e.g., insights, resources). Leading with value fosters reciprocation and opens doors for future collaboration. Be Concise and Clear in Outreach Keep communications brief and to the point. Highlight what makes your opportunity unique without overwhelming details. Demonstrate Consistency and Commitment Show long-term dedication to your venture to build credibility. Consistent actions reinforce trust and investor confidence. 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐦𝐨𝐧 𝐌𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐑𝐚𝐢𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐎𝐯𝐞𝐫-𝐏𝐢𝐭𝐜𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠  Without Adding Value Focusing solely on selling rather than building relationships deters investors. Neglecting to provide initial value can weaken your approach. 𝐏𝐨𝐨𝐫 𝐋𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐒𝐤𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐬 Dominating conversations without understanding investor needs is ineffective. Not addressing specific concerns can lose their interest. 𝐆𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐜 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐋𝐞𝐧𝐠𝐭𝐡𝐲 𝐎𝐮𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐜𝐡 Sending long, impersonal emails doesn't capture attention. Overwhelming details without clear value proposition can be off-putting. Overlooking Thought Leadership 𝐍𝐞𝐠𝐥𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐨 𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐢𝐬𝐡 𝐚𝐮𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐭𝐡𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐥𝐢𝐦𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲. Missing the chance to position yourself as an expert in your field. Likes, comments & connections are always welcome. If you’re sourcing the next deal, 📞 call us and join the group of global LPs with strategic insights. Fund Managers, explore www.clearglasscap.com for more info or 📨 info@clearglasscap.com #investmentbanking #raisingcapital #innovation #venturecapital #privateequity #DealMaking #storytelling

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[30/50] 𝐁𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐡𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐬 (𝐦𝐞𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐯𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧) Benchmarking is a very useful tool for analyzing portfolio and target companies, as well as for negotiations regarding valuation. Here are 5 sites I use for benchmarking metrics and valuations (all links are in the comments): 1. 𝐂𝐥𝐨𝐮𝐝 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐱 𝐛𝐲 Bessemer Venture Partners This index provides information about public companies in the cloud space, allowing you to compare such companies and find key information about each one. 2. 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐬𝐬 𝐛𝐲 ICONIQ Capital This site offers SaaS metric benchmarks based on data from Iconiq’s portfolio companies. It also allows you to compare your data with the benchmarks available on the site. 3. 𝐒𝐚𝐚𝐒 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐱 𝐛𝐲 Meritech Capital This index includes a wealth of metrics for public SaaS companies, such as valuations, the Rule of 40, and growth rates. 4. 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐒𝐮𝐛𝐬𝐜𝐫𝐢𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐀𝐩𝐩𝐬 𝐛𝐲 RevenueCat This resource provides metrics for apps, including retention, pricing strategies, and monetization approaches. 5. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐒𝐚𝐚𝐒 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐱 𝐛𝐲 SaaS Capital This index helps understand the potential valuation of SaaS companies.

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Navigating the Process: A Roadmap for a Smooth MM Acquisition Journey in the US Tech Sector Considering a mid-market (MM) acquisition in the dynamic US tech sector? At Spektrum Capital Advisors LLC, we understand the complexities foreign companies face. This roadmap is designed to ensure a smooth and successful journey: 1. Define Your Needs: Business Type: Identify complementary technology or software that aligns with your portfolio. Customer Fit: Analyze how the target’s customer base complements your existing US presence. Growth Potential: Assess whether the target is a high-growth company or a steady performer primed for expansion. Size & Financials: Determine the target's revenue range or Enterprise Value (EV) to match your budget. 2. Assemble Your Team: US Buy-Side Banker: Engage an experienced US investment banker specializing in tech M&A. 3. Acquisition Considerations: Distressed Businesses: Carefully evaluate turnaround potential and required resources. Technology Needs: Identify specific technology or software necessary for US expansion. Financing & Equity: Determine the need for acquisition financing and the amount of equity you'll invest. US Acquisition Vehicle: Confirm the existence of a US legal entity for the acquisition. 4. Timelines for Foreign Buyers: Due Diligence: Anticipate a longer process compared to domestic deals, including additional time for regulatory approvals. A well-defined strategy and a skilled US partner are crucial for navigating the US tech M&A landscape. #USTechM&A #ForeignInvestment #AcquisitionStrategy Share your experiences with US tech M&A in the comments below!

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EBITDA Multiples are and we believe will remain the most often used valuation metric for middle-market and lower middle-market M&A transactions. We believe this to be the case for two primary reasons - The first being it's use as shorthand for an annualized return and the second for being its practical implication as to how private equity and the broader institutional capital 'food chain' works. #hillviewpartners

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PE - Goldman Sachs on "The New Math of PE Value Creation" Goldman Sachs on PE Value Creation: - In the past, leverage and financial structuring were important drivers of return for PE firms - Now, operational value creation is more important - The future of PE will be driven by revenue growth and margin expansion --------- Source: Goldman Sachs - Dan Murphy, James Gelfer, CFA, Juliana Hadas, CFA (https://lnkd.in/emKmDfSg) P.S. Similarly, this harks back to what the top Institutional LPs discussed at length at the Private Equity International Nexus 2024 - "the past vs. the future of PE" and what PE firms must do in the next 5 years to be in the top quartile IRR in order to attract new LP capital and raise new funds. ------------------ #pe #privateequity #business #ceo #tech #saas #finance #investing #gtm #revenuegrowth

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2025 Outlook for M&A Activity: EY Underestimating? #outlook #merger #acquisition #M&A #2025 #growth #investment #PE #corporate #spinoff #lowemiddlemarket #wealth #wealthtransfer #sell #liquidity #investmentbanking #growth #economy #US #cash https://lnkd.in/eG3qu7FT.

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My bullish Turkish equities call was a dud due to multiple macro shocks! I went gaga on Istanbul equities in early September because FinMin Mehmet Şimşek's monetary tightening policies had squeezed the headline inflation rate from 70% in April to 50% last month, exactly equal to the policy rate. In addition, central bank Governor Karahan built up gross FX reserves to $93 billion, restored swap lines with G-10 central banks and dramatically reduced lira volatility to a de facto peg to 33-34 against the US dollar. Sadly, the tragic geopolitics of the Middle East did not enable me to enjoy a happy ending from my Turkish delights. One, the escalation of Israel's war with Lebanon and Iran is a disaster for Turkey since it raises the risk premium on the Borsa Istanbul 100 stocks as well as hits Turkish exports to Israel, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Iran. Two, geopolitical shocks in the Middle East boosted the war premium in crude oil, a disaster for a country that is a major oil importer where every $10 billion rise in the energy bill means a 0.35% rise in the CPI. Three, The US Presidential election is another source of risk since Trump has promised to raise tariffs against both Turkish and EU exports to the US. This is a double whammy for the Turkish economy since the EU is the ultimate destination for 50% of Turkish exports. An EU recession will mean disaster for the Turkish current account deficit as Trump's tariffs will also increase the cost of imports. Four, Şimşek has a target of 45% inflation by year end and 25% by 2025. This target, approved by the IMF, will not be achieved if Trump wins and the Israel-Iran war escalates into a 1973/1979 scale oil shock. Five, the monster job number and hot CPI data caused the Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic to suggest that the Fed may skip a rate cut at the Nov FOMC. Even if the Fed cuts its policy rate, it will only be by 25 basis points, not the jumbo 50 basis points that had so electrified EM risk assets in September. Tighter for longer US monetary policy and a higher risk premium on one of EM's highest beta currencies is obviously not best of all Panglossian worlds for Turkish assets, as reflected by the sharp fall in the BIS 100 Index since early September. Six, Erdogan has predicted 5% GDP growth in 2024, impossible. Even without an oil shock, Turkish growth will be barely 3%. Since Daddy Sultan is always right, I hope the Finance Vizier so respected by the Wall Street and the City is not forced to pay the price when/if economic growth slumps to 2%. Seven, the rise in the US Dollar Index to 103.24 and backup in the 10-year US Treasury note yield to 4.10% is obviously negative for a country whose stock market is notoriously interest rate sensitive and that is exactly why the macro storm clouds in the Bosphorus will darken. The Turkish current account deficit desperately needs foreign bank lending and offshore hot money flows in the local T-bill markets that shrink in this scenario. Tehlikeli!

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