James Maclay

See you all tomorrow (Dec. 19) on @CNBC-Overtime at 4pm ET. Nine down days in a for the Dow as of yesterday, the most since 1978, as economically sensitive stocks give back their post-election runs. Mega cap tech outperforms, again. What to do for 2025? Stay tuned. @barbara_doran1 #investments #finance

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Where does the Polen Capital team see opportunities in generative AI? Watch Dan Davidowitz break down his view on cloud service providers and where he sees potential for repeatable, recurring revenue. https://lnkd.in/egvgY6K5

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The CIO expects markets to take a small breather and enter a brief consolidation phase. Learn more about what it expects regarding timing in the April Viewpoint, "No Madness Here."

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EIG has a great webinar series. If energy transition is relevant for you, it's worth keeping an eye out for these 30 minute discussions: short, concise, interesting. The next one is on 18th of June on the topic of battery storage. Hope you are able to listen in.

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We’ve teamed up with Dell Technologies as part of their Partner Program to deliver decentralized GPU power paired with Dell’s rock-solid hardware. Translation: startups in AI, ML, and HPC can now scale faster, compute cheaper, and innovate smarter. #decentralizedAI #GPUs #cryptoinfrastructure Tausif Ahmed Tory Green Basem Oubah Gaurav Sharma https://lnkd.in/gb4277P7

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For years, the mantra in AI was clear: more data equals better performance. But what happens when we hit the data ceiling? The "bigger data" era is over — it’s time to embrace "smarter inference." Instead of relying on bigger datasets, AI is now focused on improving smarter inferences, leading to more accurate and reliable results. Read more of Joseph Lo, Head of Enterprise Platforms at Broadridge, and his insights on how to scale LLMs without more data: http://spklr.io/6045LhJZ #AI #Innovation #ReasoningModels #BusinessGrowth

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Last week, I had the pleasure of participating on the CIO panel at our 7th ETF Symposium at J.P. Morgan Asset Management's NY headquarters. Key takeaways for managing multi-asset portfolios, ETFs provide: 𝗘̲fficiency to strategically access alpha and beta 𝗧̲actical opportunity to express specific views 𝗙̲lexibility to adapt to today's ever changing market conditions

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The Fed could cut interest rates as early as September now given recent economic weakening in jobs, wages, and more. With six more data points on inflation coming over July and August -- PPI, CPI, PCE -- a continuing decline in inflation coupled with Fed concerns over holding rates too high for too long, the Fed could move sooner rather than later. On Tuesday, Fed Chair Powell made sure to reiterate the Fed's independence from political considerations, perhaps preparing for a September rate cut should the data warrant it, just before the presidential election. @CNBC-Overtime @barbara_doran1

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Trying to time the market, or not being invested, typically results in missing the market's best performance. Extreme market movements cluster around each other. In over 50% of years since 1957 the best and worst days of each year have occurred with 40 days of each other. Investors that try to time the market typically miss one side of the rally - they sell too soon, or don't buy in soon enough. I work with our clients to develop a long-term plan, build a portfolio of unique assets that don't all move with the market, and then use cash on the sidelines (or strategic rebalancing) to take advantage of extreme market moves down. That is how to build long-term, generational wealth. Important disclosures here - https://lnkd.in/d-_hAaP3

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Excellent episode on all things AI (infrastructure shifts, commercial intent moving to agents, evolutions of the application layer…) with Satya Nadella

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Spike in long term yield since the Sep 24 policy has led to tightening of financial conditions in US. Highlighting that the risk to both growth and inflation being evenly balanced, FOMC cut rates by 25 bps from 4.75-5.00 to 4.5-4.75 in line with market expectations. We continue to expect 25 bps rate cut in Dec 24 policy, however we think given the likely increase in fiscal/ tariff in 2025 and it impact on inflation the end 2025 fed rate guidance may its be revised higher from 3.40 to 3.70 in the Dec 24 meeting.

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Taper Tantrum 3   Today's jobs report looks to be the straw that broke the camel's back and the market is having a Taper Tantrum, last seen in 2018 and 2013. With the market already weakened by mixed big tech earnings and the bloom coming off the AI rose, a weak nonfarm payrolls report and negative revision for last month is sending the UST 10y yield plummeting down to 3.8% and the UST 2y down 29 bps to the lowest levels in a year.   We've said it repeatedly and we'll say it once again: The Fed needs to cut, one and done for the year, 50 basis points at the next meeting in September. They should have done 25 bps in July and 25 bps in September. After rate cuts from the ECB, BOE, and Canada, the ball has been in the Fed's court and now all eyes are firmly on them to follow through on as soft of a landing as possible. 50 bps at their next meeting signals to the market they recognize the impact "Higher For Longer" is having on the economy.   To be clear, we continue to believe that after 50 bps of "Gentle Easing" the Fed should continue with a "Higher for Longer" policy to avoid inflation rearing its head once again. Even though inflation is still above their 2% target (despite never giving a reason for that magic number), the economy needs support and stabilization: Manufacturing is in contraction for over a year, services data is finally cracking, the housing market activity is grinding to a near halt, credit card balances and auto loans are at record highs with delinquencies surging, consumer cyclical and non-cyclical earnings are missing consensus estimates, equities are hitting stop losses and margin calls, and dispersion is accelerating. We anticipate credit ratings actions and default rates to continue rising, presenting us with a very attractive investing environment we have not seen in the better part of a decade. This is where the Coherence strategy can drive real alpha. Below is my recent interview on the Charles Schwab Network in which I reiterated our view: One and Done!   https://lnkd.in/eHuH6CrQ

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Moelis is pleased to act as Exclusive Financial Advisor to IHS Towers, one of the largest independent owners, operators, and developers of shared communications infrastructure in the world by tower count, on its $230 million sale of IHS Kuwait to Zain Group. #DealAdvisory Press release: https://bit.ly/3OJly2A

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Moelis is pleased to act as Exclusive Financial Advisor to IHS Towers, one of the largest independent owners, operators, and developers of shared communications infrastructure in the world by tower count, on its $230 million sale of IHS Kuwait to Zain Group. #DealAdvisory Press release: https://bit.ly/3OOcFoC

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Moelis is pleased to act as Exclusive Financial Advisor to IHS Towers, one of the largest independent owners, operators, and developers of shared communications infrastructure in the world by tower count, on its $230 million sale of IHS Kuwait to Zain Group. #DealAdvisory Press release: https://bit.ly/3D4ot3s

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