Jason Sunderland

The U.S. stock market futures index is plummeting. This is a sign that the U.S. stock market is collapsing in earnest. This is probably due to the possibility of a fifth Middle East war due to the possibility of Israel's retaliatory attack on Iran. If this becomes a reality, it will be a disaster for the global economy. Armageddon is coming. Asian stock markets are also collapsing now.

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6/6/2024, Plainfield, NJ The World for Sale: Money, Power, and the Traders Who Barter the Earth's Resources by Javier Blas (Author), Jack Farchy (Author) Javier Blas Jack Farchy Oxford University Press April 21, 2022 416 pages $31.99 https://a.co/d/gSytSNk 1. Overview "The World for Sale" is a riveting exposé that pulls back the curtain on the secretive and powerful commodity trading industry. Javier Blas and Jack Farchy, veteran journalists covering energy and natural resources, provide an unprecedented look into the amoral and often dubious practices of the elite traders who connect producers and consumers of the world's vital resources. 2. Ruthless Pursuit of Profit The book reveals how major trading houses like Glencore, Vitol, and Trafigura have amassed immense fortunes by operating in war-torn regions, dealing with dictatorial regimes, engaging in bribery and corruption, and funneling dirty money through offshore companies - all in the relentless pursuit of profit. These traders are motivated purely by financial gain, indifferent to politics or human suffering, as long as there is money to be made. 3. Balanced Reporting While exposing the excesses, Blas and Farchy maintain a balanced tone, acknowledging that the worst examples do not define the entire industry. They explain complex trading practices like futures, spot markets, and tolling agreements in an accessible manner, avoiding oversimplification. 4. Gripping Narratives The book reads like a thriller, with gripping narratives of breathtaking trades, such as shipments of rebel oil from war-torn Libya or deals bartered amid the brutal "aluminum wars" in 1990s Russia. It offers a globe-spanning corporate drama full of intrigue and double-dealing that changes how we perceive the world, often in horrifying ways. 5. Increased Scrutiny While the authors believe commodity traders will remain influential, they note that increased transparency, public scrutiny, and government regulations have made bribery and corruption more difficult in recent years, curtailing some of the traders' more nefarious activities. In summary, *The World for Sale* is a meticulously researched, eye-opening, and balanced account that exposes the immense power and often unethical practices of the commodity trading industry that shapes the modern world.[ #The_World_for_Sale #PlainfieldNJ Javier Blas | The World For Sale: Money, Power, and the Traders Who Barter the Earth's Resources https://lnkd.in/eVDFafR9

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If we look at the rise in the UST 10 yields (4.69% as I write this), the contrast with the Fed policy rate reductions of 50 bps for 2025 suggested in the December SEP is on everybody's mind. Whereas it is apparent that there is strong momentum for this rise in long rates to continue, and that it is not inflation concerns primarily driving the rise, the Fed will likely intervene to contain the long end at some point. I believe this point of intervention is in the 5.25% - 5.50% range, which is the upper end of the long term normal range for the ten-year Treasury note yield. For as long as the UST investors drive yields up, the Fed will tend to pause or even hike their overnight rate. Intervention in the long end is instant with Large Scale Asset Sales program termination. The Employment Situation Report due out this coming Friday, January 10, could cause a reversal in the term premium, if the unemployment rate rises above the 4.4% ceiling of the SEP. We think this will be reported as unchanged 4.2% (4.1% NSA) for December 2024, but likely will jump a full percentage point for January (5.1% NSA), causing market volatility in February. The situation in China is of concern as the policy makers are unable to contain the slack in the real economy, and prices tending towards deflation (CPI 0.4% y-o-y headline), and feeble attempts at defending the CNY rate of exchange 7.30 CNY/USD have been abandoned. A renewed set of tariffs and sanctions imposed by the incoming US President will not help China in their current predicament, and any China issue will risk reverberating throughout the global economy, bringing central bank policy rates back to the lows of the past decade. The test of the incoming US Secretary of the Treasury lies in containing the Presidential urge to posture and establish policy direction that supports financial stability. That sounds unlikely given the emerging Trump dogma of a policy reset, imposing chaos and renegotiating every treaty and agreement without regard to prior commitments. It is hard to see how these opposing forces driving long term US Treasury yields will reconcile, with momentum seeing yields surging into six to seven percent range if unchecked and global financial stability concerns possibly leading to overnight rates heading to the zero lower bound should trade wars escalate and triggering crises of scale. Going to cash to keep out of harm's way seems prudent for those who do not have to be invested by charter. As a corollary, speculating in either of these opposing outcomes could be very profitable on a 12-month horizon, as prices could move considerably. US equities would likely fall moderately (-5%) over the year if term premiums continue to rise unchecked, with more risks to the downside if we look into 2H 2025. #USA #UST #ust10 #china #cny #volatility

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Out of complete necessity, I will host another CollinsCast 10/23 at 5pm ET to discuss $TSLA EPS before the mgmt call begins at 5:30pm. Video call link: https://lnkd.in/eEErpw_7 Or dial: ‪(US) +1 402-732-7305‬ PIN: ‪403 326 826‬# I have never seen a more confused bunch of "analysts." $TSLA is going to market with a 7.25 year-old (3) and 4.5 year-old (Y) product lineup. Old product requires discounting, and that pressures profit margins. Full stop. That is why $TSLA earnings have been consistently mediocre and margin pressure at what was proclaimed by nitwits--as recently as 12 months ago--as "the most profitable automaker in the world" is incessant. As shown in the chart below, $TSLA has LOST $550 BILLION in market cap in the past 2.75 years, which is an extraordinary diminution in value. And if you compare RELATIVE performance vs., for instance, $NVDA, or even $AAPL, which pays a dividend (something TSLA has never done,) $TSLA stock has been an absolute disaster since the beginning of 2022. But Wall Street hides that. Tomorrow, I will explain why. Join the CollinsCast.

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Dollar/Gold Disorder creates Mutation in Global Weaponized Dysfunctional Economic Mismangement Northern economies have overextended themselves on perpetual global South subjigation by weaponization of currency or debt distribution hollowing out the inflated unproductive dollar asset values of improbable promissary returns. Weaponizing those artficial values via distribution subjigation & fiat gold debasement weakening divide conquer methods,explioting the national self concept by fiat dependent psychology. Billionaires have built bunkers,bought larger yacths & foriegn passports. The financial nihlism is floated in interest rate & inflationary Orwellian Newspeak of delayed data as the JPN Yen & derivative assets meet the illiqudity crisis of dislocated money creation, collapsing Treasury intervention demand from unproductive non restrictive debt. Gold based BRICS are unhappy with the systemic egocentric bias of Nothern central bank mismanagement by the inflationary distribution design against western citizens & the Global South in the current global order. But we also sense that they are not seeking to establish an alternate order but to strengthen & reform the current one such that mutually agreed upon norms are applied equally & justly to all nations. However, BRICS tradionally have been exploitable to divide conquere via dollar dependency & an egocentric arrested development to equality via the national self concept. Only China,Russia & gradually Saudi Arabia of the G-20 countries lack the long view on dollar dependency.Saudi warned it could sell off EU debt holdings in retaliation to a move by the G-7 to seize $300bn in frozen Russian assets. G-20 Forums can be the vehicle for the reforms that BRICS seek. But there are exploitable conflicts between India & China, Saudi Arabia & Iran to a lesser extent Egypt & Ethiopia, which effects the forum’s ability to act more decisively. BRICS will have to either limit its membership to nations without hostilities or develop a robust internal system of conflict resolution. Human reality is fundamentally emotional.The nature of emotion comprises something which prevents humans from giving it objective view. Therefore to give a clear definition of emotion is essentially problematical. Ego hinders conflict resolution as individuals associate arguments with their self-concept,leading to ego-threat opposition,triggering competitive behavior & escalating conflicts.Ego-depletion increases selfish decision making, but also increase self-conflict & regret about dependent decisions. But the fact that BRICS has emerged from mismanagement & is being taken seriously clearly indicates that there is a need & an active demand for change at the moment there is no better hope than BRICS to bring about evolution & systemic preservation of cooperation.One of your greatest opponents to the self is hidden in place you would never look.UBS says investors holding gold 2-3 years see gold above 4,000 US dollars."

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Geopolitical Capitalism/Market Socialism. New post out! https://bit.ly/3WVtAuI During the Cold War, the U.S. and the USSR played a 1 v. 1 great power game. In 1991, the USSR collapsed and the U.S. was left as the hegemon. The game changed to 1 v. None. That lasted until around 2008. Now the U.S. is in a multipolar world with an aggressive near-peer in China. But the game is not back to 1 v. 1. It’s more like 80 v. 80. Geopolitical Socialism → Market Capitalism During the U.S. hegemony, there was no one to challenge U.S. military or political might. While many countries chaffed under this order, the U.S. was a benevolent dictator and everyone who wanted to play by the rules benefited mightily. This top-down control of the geopolitical order is what I am calling “Geopolitical Socialism”. Critically, this allowed for what was as close as we will ever get to “free market capitalism”. You want to shut down your Milwaukee metal bending operation and send it to Mexico China India Bangladesh Indonesia Vietnam? Go for it. You want to manufacture $1,200 iPhones with hundreds of components made overseas? That works. Capital moved freely to wherever it was treated best and the Washington Consensus was gospel. The whole global capitalist system rested on there being no real risks to global supply chains or other forms of disruption. The low-cost provider won in a world of frictionless production. Piracy was so rare they made a Tom Hanks movie about a ship that got boarded. Geopolitical Capitalism → Market Socialism Literally everything has changed 180 degrees. In the multipolar world, we have Geopolitical Capitalism, where global states are in a free market economy, competing or cooperating with each other in highly transactional ways. A country will sign a trade deal with another on Monday and on Tuesday refuse to sign onto a climate agreement with the same counterparty. Everything is about internal political expediency and calming the mobs. Since states are now in the capitalist mode with other states, they are pumping up their own industries and national champions through subsidies, loans, and other means, as well as protecting domestic producers with tariffs and import bans. This is the market socialism part. Countries are negotiating between themselves but companies within each country are supported. Capital doesn’t move as freely now (and it never did out of China) and no one trusts the global supply chain. We skipped the piracy phase and went straight to container ships being shot out of the water by gangs/state-sponsored terrorists/rogue nations. Now the U.S. is overmatched in a 1 v. World game of trying (virtually) single-handedly to secure all global shipping lanes. This is raising costs on everyone and making domestic production very appealing. I discuss the market implications on the full post. Just click on the link!

#BTCUSD, 30-minute timeframe chart BTCUSD retested the resistance level of 98,300.00 #Level explanation BTCUSD has been under selling pressure within the last couple of hours. The pair moved up to the resistance level of 98,300.00. #Possible scenario The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 97,971.29. Set your stop loss at 100,360.12 above the previous high ($23.89 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 95,582.46 ($23.89 profit for 0.01 lot). The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1. The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period. Some traders may close their positions on Friday, which can add more pressure to the market. #forex #forextrading #bitcoin #finance #crypto #fintech #usd #usa

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A tech titan worth $350B just made the riskiest brand move in corporate history. Most CEOs avoid political alignment. Musk just bet his empire on it, emerging as Trump's most powerful and visible ally since re-election. A client called during me early days at GS. 'Should we stay or leave?' My answer echoed Peter Thiel: 'Never bet against Elon.' But here's the intriguing part. In 500 years of capitalism, we've never seen anything like this. Many boardrooms dismiss him as a X provocateur and meme artist. Yet the same figure runs companies reshaping humanity from space to energy to mobility. The old playbook: The Rothschilds financed both sides of wars while remaining publicly neutral. JP Morgan wielded immense political influence but stayed clear of partisan politics. Machiavelli warned princes: 'It is better to be feared than loved, if you cannot be both.' But he also cautioned: 'The prince who relies solely on fortune is lost when it changes.' Musk seems to be testing both maxims simultaneously. Here's Musk, operating on a scale that makes most empires look like rounding errors while: - Negotiating with China while aligning with Trump - Becoming a key voice between Putin, Trump, and Zelensky - Becoming the world's No. 1 Diablo player When he laid off 80% of Twitter's workforce overnight, CEOs watched in stunned fascination. 'If he can do it..' they whispered. He showed corporate America's sacred cows gradual transitions, consultations, perfect optics might be just tradition. But here's what most miss: Political power is cyclical. When the pendulum swings and it will swing what happens to an empire tied so closely to a political position? Tesla's autonomous driving approvals. SpaceX's NASA partnerships. Starlink's strategic importance. When Washington changes hands, how will a BLUE administration view all of this? Howard Hughes' empire faced intense scrutiny after his allies lost power. Jack Ma discovered how quickly empire turns to ash when Beijing decided to clip his wings. Musk isn't building backup plans or maintaining diplomatic bridges. He's burning them spectacularly. Unless... there's an even bigger play at work. What if we're watching the early moves of someone planning their own political ascension? After all, who better to follow a business mogul turned president than someone who's already positioning himself as a synthesis of Henry Ford's industrial vision, Trump's ability to turn disruption into devotion, and Javier Milei's chainsaw reformation? Musk's brand casts a powerful halo over his empire like Saturn's rings, beautiful but dependent on precise conditions to exist. What if this same halo becomes his companies' greatest vulnerability? Most CEOs play the game. Some CEOs change the rules. But what if Musk sees something we don't - that there never were any rules, just stories we agreed to believe? That's not strategy. That's either history's most expensive gamble, or its most brilliant rebellion. #trump #musk

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My previous post on the oversized role of the price of oil for the prospects of war in Ukraine in a more readable (larger font) format.

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New or smaller VC, PE or HF manager? AUM less than $50 million? Great Performance? Trying to raise assets? Struggling and failing?   Sounds all too familiar: It’s due to poor or non-existent marketing Let’s get real about raising assets for “sub-institutional” managers, those with AUM between $0 and $50 million. IT’S HARD AND A STRUGGLE.   Raising assets in a crowded, hyper-competitive, complex and complicated market from investors that are risk averse, stringently selective and idiosyncratically demanding is more challenging and difficult than most new and sub-institutional managers understand. The fact is the majority of sub-institutional managers fail to get AUM beyond personal capital long with small amounts from family and friends even when they have exceptional performance. Plainly speaking: There is a lot of BS, hype, propaganda and completely wrong information about marketing and fundraising for small managers with AUM less than $50 million Since 2011, Johnson & Company has specialized in meeting the marketing challenges for "sub-institutional" managers. 25+ years experience, expertise and skill uniquely equips a new or smaller manager with the FACTS and proven structured, disciplined and focused PROCESS supported by independent high-integrity data and research, accurate information, objective insight, expert instruction and frontline intelligence that optimizes marketing process execution to maximize the success, efficiency, economy, expedience and effectiveness of raising assets. If you’re a new or smaller manager, with AUM less than $50 million struggling and failing to raise assets, first get the facts: https://johnsn.com/facts If after your review of the “FACTS”, you’d like a candid, no-nonsense conversation about marketing and raising assets, contact me, I welcome the opportunity. [email protected]

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"Why WW3 would not be ‘bullish for gas’. If there are reasons to be ‘bullish’ on European gas prices, a global stock market meltdown on the eve of a Middle East regional conflict is not one of them. " There has been bullish support for TTF in Europe recently, in part due to the escalating conflict in the Middle East. Seb Kennedy discusses these developments and shares his insights about the Gas, TTF, and LNG markets. 👇 Read More : https://lnkd.in/e33v3-Yq #Gas #TTF #LNG #Europe #Energy #MiddleEast Seb Kennedy EklipX Research

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Instead of a Peaceful Transition, Biden is Exacerbating the War between Ukraine and Russia Trump Vows to End the War in Ukraine, while Biden Pushes to Increase the Possibility of Direct Conflict between Russia and the West By Antonio J. Soave November 18, 2024 The deep state doesn’t go away easily. Instead of preparing for a peaceful transition to President-Elect Donald Trump and his cabinet, Joe Biden and his technocrats are engaging in a move that represents a passive aggressive increase in the tensions between Ukraine and Russia. Just as Vladimir Putin is no saint, the same goes for Volodymyr Zelensky.  Both are culpable, both are responsible, and both are liable for this ongoing war.  The only way out is to seek lasting peace, but it is not something that Biden is willing to pursue. On his way out of office (and by way of comparison), President Jimmy Carter pursued the Camp David Accords, thereby solidifying a legacy of peace. Carter also worked diligently to free the U.S. hostages in Iran in 1979. The same is not true for Biden. This morning’s PBS newsfeed online reads (in part): Biden gives Ukraine permission to use U.S.-supplied missiles for deeper strikes inside Russia Nov 17, 2024 6:28 PM EST MANAUS, Brazil (AP) — President Joe Biden has authorized Ukraine to use U.S.-supplied long-range missiles to strike deeper inside Russia, easing limitations on the weapons … The decision [allows] Kyiv to use the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMs … Biden’s move also follows the presidential election victory of Donald Trump, who has said he would bring about a swift end to the war and raised uncertainty about whether his administration would continue the United States’ vital military support for Ukraine.                  Source: PBS News online. This move also allows Ukraine to use other advanced weaponry that has been supplied by the United States including, but not limited to, F-16s, tanks, and a whole host of other weapons and missiles. Russia clearly sees any such move as direct intervention in the war not just by the United States, but by all the other NATO countries as well. Needless to say, this move by Joe Biden—especially at a critical time in the transition of power in our country—is highly suspect and terribly unusual. This places an indelible mark on the Biden Administration in terms of its commitment to conflict, not its commitment to peace. There is no way that peace can come about by increasing war in that region of the world and by encouraging the use of U.S.-made and U.S.-supplied advanced weapons systems. This move by Biden could have devastating effects not only on the transition to a Trump presidency, but also on peace initiatives around the globe. The legacy of Biden in his last days is one of spreading tension, discord, and dispute. MORE … PLEASE CONTACT ME FOR THE FULL ARTICLE. #peace #ukraine #foreignpolicy

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#etf #allocators, help me out here. Hell, anyone interested in #inflation protection, active #etfs or even #fixedincome broadly, please chime in. For accidental reasons, I (sort of) follow two inflation hedge #etfs: $IVOL and $RISR. $IVOL: "inflation hedge" ETF launched in 2019 that is basically #TIPS plus some tricky hedging. AUMS took off like a rocket ship (zero to $3.5 bn in two years). Quadratic Capital Management LLC looked like it would be the ARK Investment Management LLC of #fixedincome ETFs. Today $IVOL looks like a failed experiment: underperformed the BlackRock iShares TIPS ETF by 400 bps per annum at 5x the fees, Sharpe ratio of -0.4, max DD of -28% (more than double $TIP), Morningstar ⭐ (bottom quartile in 2021, 2022, 2023 and ... YTD) . Yet still $700+ mm in AUMS. $RISR: "inflation hedge" ETF from FolioBeyond that was launched in 2021 that buys #mortgage IOs, a straightforward rising rate hedge that's worked for thirty plus years. Up 60% cumulatively since launch with $TIP down 2% (and IVOL down 22%!), Sharpe ratio of 1.05, max DD of 7%, negative correlation to the Bloomberg AGG with 700 bps per annum of #alpha, and Morningstar ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐. Yet stuck at $50 mm today. So here's my question: What causes this stickiness for funds that were marketed with a pitch that, in retrospect, appears to have been wrong? What makes it so difficult for smaller funds to break through when part of the argument for #etfs is accessibility? I have theories but I'm curious to hear from people on the ground. Comments below would be most appreciated. AUMs for reference 👇. NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. MERELY CONFUSION FROM A NON-EXPERT IN THIS AREA. (Although I did write a decidedly mediocre paper 😬 on the David Askin's MBS #hedgefund blow up at Harvard Business School decades ago, so there you have it...)

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Corbenic Capital raising estimate of US Real Personal Consumption Expenditures growth through Q3 2025 from 2.3% to 2.7%, just below the 2.8% long term trimmed mean rate of growth. #election2024 #usa #recessionrisk #softlanding #fed #realpce #realgdp #growth

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Military historians will tell you Germany lost WWII because they took on a two-front conflict against the United States and Russia simultaneously. Ultimately, they were spread too thin. In financial markets, sometimes the overall turbulence feels almost like war. The Bank of Japan has a real problem on its hands. A two-front battle of its own. Time will tell if it can handle both. On one hand, their currency is falling apart. Last night, it traded the cheapest against the dollar since 1990; this, of course, is right around the time their equity bubble from the 1980s imploded. This meltdown in equities was far worse than the future tech implosion we saw here a decade or so later in the plummeting dot.com years. Separately, Japan knows they have to keep interest rates down - or else. So they're spending gobs of money to control and manipulate their bond market. This has literally been going on nonstop for decades, mind you. Last night, they intervened in foreign exchange markets to prop up the yen. How long can this duel-threat fantasy keep going? I will tell you this about currency traders. They will push the limits of what central banks can handle. It's like the boy who cried wolf parable. Traders crush the yen because they know the Bank of Japan is worried about rates; the BOJ steps in to calm things down and revert to some sort of pretend mean. Rinse and repeat. Until. Guys like George Soros come onto the scene and punish the state-backed bankers. If you had to rate the biggest risks to the global geopolitical economy in order at present I would venture to say they would look something like this: 1 - Global conflict (Taiwan, for instance) 2- Inflation 3 - Japan currency drama 4 - Trade war with China 5 - Japan bond-market drama 6 - U.S. election We don't need a problem right now out of Tokyo but we may get one. These things come at you at blinding speed. Don't take your eye off it. Guarantee the yen gets tested again soon in a big way; just watch. #Japan #Yen #FX #Currencies

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