Kevin Galligan

In this month’s First Eagle Alternative Credit update, Portfolio Manager and Senior Alternatives Strategist Larry Holzenthaler explains how repricing drove spread compression in 2024 and where the team is seeking relative value while keeping overall credit quality at fairly prudent levels. https://bit.ly/3DwAiiY

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The TCW Group’s #EmergingMarkets Update is now available. Read why Distressed Leads the Way, as we continue to monitor hard landing narratives, the Israel/Hamas conflict, Chinese growth downside, election risk & more.

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In the latest edition of Barron's, long-tenured Associate Editor Randy Forsyth writes: “Bond investors of a certain age will recall that the Treasury 30-year bond yield briefly touched 14% 40 years ago this past week. While the all-time record of about 15% was hit in September 1981, the 14% yield was more valuable, given that inflation by 1984 was in retreat from the double digits of the late 1970s and early ‘80s, to 4%. That meant a real return of 10% from a risk-free government security, more than stocks have returned historically. […] This was the turning point for the generational decline in yields, observed Jeffrey Gundlach.” And likewise supplied the fuel for a generational increase in equity prices, which had previously languished during the high inflation of the 1970’s until tamed by Fed Chairman Paul Volcker. We didn’t know it in real time, but on reflection the ensuing four decades were halcyon days, and the “easy money” was long duration and long beta. No more. Need new ideas. Fresh perspectives. Outcomes not benchmarks. .

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Government bonds have become less reliable in shielding portfolios against equity selloffs. Sharing the BlackRock Investment Institute's latest insights that suggest investors should consider new diversifiers - such as gold and bitcoin 👉 https://1blk.co/3P0honk

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77 WABC Radio: #1 Station in New York (and based on that data arguably the #1 in the U.S.) owned and operated by Red Apple Group. Below is a full-page announcement in New York Post highlighting the recent bipartisan Congressional committee decisively voting to safeguard the presence of AM radio in all automobiles across the United States. This commendable action upholds the vital role that AM radio plays in providing reliable news, public safety information, and community engagement—particularly during emergencies. This crucial decision comes despite efforts from automakers like General Motors to remove AM from future models. AM radio remains a vital resource for news, information, and community engagement, and this decision ensures that it continues to serve millions of listeners—both now and in the future. Founded in New York in 1968 by Chair/CEO John Catsimatidis, Red Apple Group is one of the largest private companies in North America and has leading operating businesses and interests in consumer, energy and refining, investments and insurance, infrastructure, logistics, media and sports, real estate, retail, and technology. With evergreen capital "we think and invest in decades, not quarters." DM or email with opportunities. #WABC770 #AMRadio #Media #NYC #RedAppleGroup #Broadcasting #Congress #BipartisanSupport #AutomotiveIndustry #GeneralMotors #Ford #BMW #Tesla #MercedesBenz #Toyota #Honda #Volkswagen #PublicService #Legislation #USCongress #Senate #HouseOfRepresentatives #johncatsimatidis

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My latest piece on what to expect at the September FOMC meeting. #fed #federalreserve

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The Fall Edition of FPRI's Orbis is exceptional. It directs our attention to the critical elements essential for defining the direction of American domestic and foreign policy. It starts off with an article by Robert Kaplan on "What Should Be America’s Role in the World?" followed by Andrew's Michta's piece on "America Needs a Grand Strategy" then by "Revisiting Grand Strategy at the Inflection Point" by Nikolas K. Gvosdev etc. The intellectual content is fertile, visionary, and actionable. I highly encourage you to get a copy and read it. https://lnkd.in/e92JpaXG

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Despite the recent Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) reports being lauded as "strong" and "solid," a critical underlying metric tells a different story. The Implied Hiring Rate has actually plummeted in the last two NFP reports, exposing a glaring disconnect between surface-level praise and deeper labor market dynamics. Is this time different?

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Former Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Janet Yellen likened the 2017-2019 balance sheet drawdown to "watching paint dry," a sentiment echoed in the current quantitative tightening (QT) phase since May 2022, with nearly $2 trillion reduced. With fiscal policy uncertainty ahead, should the Fed consider ending QT earlier? Discover our insights in this week’s #OnTheMindsofInvestors: https://bit.ly/4i1yU7M

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⭕ Harnessing the Power of Ichigo Ichie (一期一会) In this year’s President’s Letter, I reflect on the markets, the balance between long-term resilience and short-term adaptability, and our excitement about the opportunities ahead. 📊 Link to full letter is below Orbis Investments

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Usually, trendy investment themes or investment fads take more than a few years to rise back to prominence after a period of subpar performance or a fall from grace . https://lnkd.in/eEeP5EXT It seems SPACS are hot on the heels of meme stock resurgences and looking to release version 2.0. With public equity markets again at all time highs with valuations to match, one would think that combined with a  dose of near decade high interest rates would not provide a particularly supportive breeding ground for SPACs.  https://lnkd.in/eX-6J98V If the incoming administration’s nominee for Commerce Secretary thinks they are once again pretty viable maybe the second wave will have a better track record for the investors than the last waves did. I’m sure the SPAC underwriters/sponsors will be just fine either way. #spacs #spac #bubble #markets #investing #bearmarket #speculation #greed #investopedia #bloomberg

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In this month’s First Eagle Alternative Credit update, Portfolio Manager and Senior Alternatives Strategist Larry Holzenthaler explains how repricing drove spread compression in 2024 and where the team is seeking relative value while keeping overall credit quality at fairly prudent levels. https://bit.ly/3DwAiiY

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Interesting article from Douglas Appell in Pensions & Investments about the post-ZIRP, “higher for longer” interest rate environment that boils down to advocating for the pursuit of satisfactory investment outcomes that are relevant to asset owners’ actual spending needs and goals, rather than continuing the historically common practice – and expected future folly – of tethering one’s equity beta to that of an equity benchmark whose performance from today’s elevated levels is widely expected to be sluggish and insufficient to fund minimum liabilities (ie: payout rates, actuarial hurdles, spending goals, etc.).   Quoting the inimitable Ben Phillips, “In that world, the relevant benchmark becomes the client’s required cash flows.”   Fresh perspectives and new ideas are warranted. Satisfactory outcomes not benchmarks.

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What are the key factors impacting your portfolio in 2025? Join Capital Group’s Mike Gitlin and Jody Jonsson as they assess the evolving investment landscape and identify opportunities for the year ahead. bit.ly/41Xq3yj To earn 1 hour of #CEcredit for CFP and CIMA designations and receive materials, visit CapitalIdeasWebinars.com #CapitalIdeas Important disclosures: bit.ly/3PnuIlT

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What are the key factors impacting your portfolio in 2025? Join Capital Group’s Mike Gitlin and Jody Jonsson as they assess the evolving investment landscape and identify opportunities for the year ahead. bit.ly/41Xq3yj To earn 1 hour of #CEcredit for CFP and CIMA designations and receive materials, visit CapitalIdeasWebinars.com #CapitalIdeas Important disclosures: bit.ly/3PnuIlT

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