Kevin Yamazaki

The (Healthcare) Ground Beneath Our Feet… This year it is likely that over $10 billion will be invested in the digital health sector – a robust amount, no doubt, but inconsequential when compared to the amount of capital tied up in healthcare real estate assets, which is estimated to be $1.2 trillion by Jones Lang Lasalle. Of that amount, approximately $790 billion is in the hospital sector while the remaining $490 billion is in medical office assets. It is estimated that there are 48.6k facilities with 3.4 billion square feet of healthcare real estate, 42% of which are owned by REITs and another 33% held by other private investment vehicles. Much of the digital health investment is meant to make the physical healthcare infrastructure more productive: greater operating efficiencies, greater patient throughput, more relevant personalized care models with better outcomes. As the healthcare system is being pushed to be more distributed to lower cost sites of care, accelerated now by the rapid proliferation of automation and AI capabilities, the potential impact on healthcare infrastructure assets will be profound. Thoughts on what that might look like... https://lnkd.in/eTfAdUbS #digitalhealth Flare Capital Partners

113

6 Comments

This 👂 podcast episode and insight’s from a16z Bio + Health's Julie Yoo spoke so clearly to the fundamental challenge facing both 🩺 clinicians and 🏥 healthcare systems.  There is a huge disconnect between supply, in the availability of clinicians, and demand, in the increasing volume and complexity of healthcare needs. -     36% of physicians plan to reduce their hours next year according to the AMA -     48% of physicians reported feeling burned out in a 2024 Medscape survey At the same time, the demographic baby boomer bubble and steady increase in the prevalence of major chronic disease, which consumes up to 90% of healthcare expenditures according to some estimates, is driving demand. With this context, Yoo points to a major opportunity for AI adoption in healthcare in 2025. Yeah, a VC hyping a wave of new AI companies that will replace the decades of training and experience of clinicians, the skeptic would say.  But Yoo is thoughtful in pointing to the role AI can play, and is already playing, through solutions such as ambient, autonomous scribe solutions (of which local star Abridge is leading the pack) in not replacing, but freeing up productivity for clinicians. There is so much unstructured context in both the complexity of disease and treatment options and the social/emotional considerations that we shouldn't be looking for AI to *replace* clinicians. But companies are getting better at finding the structured, repetitive and time-consuming places where AI tools can *help* clinicians. Nearly two-thirds of doctors cited bureaucratic tasks as the leading contributor to burnout. Rigorously trained-AI driven solutions can be a force multiplier for clinicians, and I’ve seen several interviews where nurses and doctors go as far as to say some of these solutions are ”restoring their joy in practicing medicine”. Our health is precious; and we rightly want any technology engaging with it to be developed thoughtfully and thoroughly tested. This requires top AI talent and diverse and realistic training data. Pittsburgh’s strengths in both areas is why we are an emerging hub for data-driven healthcare. #AIinhealthcare #clinicianburnout #healthinnovation #digitalhealth

16

Hot take on a lot of early-stage digital health companies out there: You're not a tech company. Most tech-enabled care companies I've seen over the past two years are only tech-enabled in the sense that they use telehealth as their delivery mechanism for care. There are exceptions to this, of course - companies who build computer vision and applied AI tools to better the doctor-patient experience, companies who build tooling around risk scoring and stratification to enable more personalized medicine, companies who build truly novel intakes to better route patients to the appropriate care, etc. These companies have real technology chops and, if they sell it right to the market, can get credit for this from investors. But if you're truly a telehealth provider, you need to realize now that the goal post has shifted dramatically from 2021 and you're going to be valued at maturity at something like 3x EBITDA. That's profit. Not revenue. Throw a revenue multiple out the window. That's not the world we live in if you're a virtual doctor's office. Think of how that impacts venture math. If you're raising a seed round at $15M post-money (or $12M pre-money), it means you'll have to generate something like $150-200M in annual EBITDA to be a fund returner for your seed investors. Maybe even more with dilution, since telehealth businesses are not traditionally capital efficient and will likely need to raise material additional capital to reach that scale. You need to be ridiculously profitable (probably on $800M-$1B in annual revenue since you're likely going to be a 40% gross margin business). Here's the good news: you can set yourself up well (and probably be a contrarian founder relative to your peers), by talking about EBITDA growth and how you can grow into a fund-returning outcome based on realistic mature market comps. This will stand out for the investors you're pitching, even at the early stage. This is how you can beat the malaise of the tech-enabled care market. Focus on the right metrics and the right type of growth. You don't have to have all the answers (no founder does), but you need to make sure the ship is headed in the right direction. A focus on profitability for "tech-enabled care" (*ahem* telehealth) businesses is a good first step.

26

3 Comments

There is a misconception emerging that AI agents will lead to immediate reductions in healthcare labor costs. While AI agents can automate end-to-end workflows such as booking appointments, answering basic patient questions, and performing form completion for prior authorizations, automating a single task is not equivalent to automating an entire job. Nurses are a prime example. Certain nursing tasks, such as care coordination and patient documentation, are highly automatable by AI agents; however, there is a tremendous amount of work nurses perform on the ground that cannot be fully automated with current technologies such as direct patient care, physical examinations, medication administration, wound care, patient support, and clinical assessments. These nuances make full role elimination less likely with current technologies. When articulating the ROI of an AI agent, we need to be both precise and accurate. Automating a task is more often not automating an entire profession. For roles that encompass many functions, such as nursing, AI agents can be invaluable tools for unburdening staff, increasing efficiency, and boosting throughput—benefits that are particularly valuable given current healthcare staffing and resource shortages. The most promising job candidates for full role elimination through AI remain positions with monolithic task structures, of which there are relatively few in healthcare today—scribes, medical coders, and data entry specialists for example. It is therefore unsurprising then that the most progress has been made in these categories.

123

18 Comments

One of my proudest moments as an investor occurred today as Alaffia Health announced its series A because it shows how the Aperture® Venture Capital vision of multi-level, multi-generational #impactinvesting is succeeding in the marketplace. Here’s the model in its most basic form : ✅As diverse fund managers with meaningful capital to allocate, we are changing the VC landscape every day just by doing our day jobs. ✅As Black/Brown investors with ~40 years experience collectively, Aperture GPs have access to talent /excellence that others do not, so our portfolio *organically* is more inclusive by race, gender and geography even while optimizing for financial outcomes (all about the alpha). ✅Our most successful portco’s are using financial #innovation to solve market problems that impact underrepresented demographics and underserved communities. Alaffia Health is a shining example of the impact portion of our overall fund thesis, and we couldn’t be prouder of TJ Ademiluyi and Adun Akanni, MPH, PMP - the dynamic brother-sister founder duo whose vision we have steadfastly supported on their journey. Congratulations to TJ and Adun from William Crowder and myself, as well as the whole Aperture team- Marjorie King Philip McKenzie Yves Louis-Jacques Tanvi Lal Michelle Dhansinghani Lisha Bell Katie Kelly Amy Chung Cindy Chong, CFA Brian Fernandes-Halloran Monroe France Jayden Pantel Darren Herman Evan Wladis Neal Triplett Thomas Scriven Peter Ammon Irina Bit-Babik Tim Milanich Rob Rahbari

37

18 Comments

📈 Demand for fertility services is rising -> 💼 PE recognizes this and wants in -> 🏜 but opportunities are scarce (https://lnkd.in/g6zXEVZh). Highly recommend anyone who wants a deeper understanding of what's going with fertility and fertility tech read Aya Spencer's *2024 State of fertility tech report* (https://lnkd.in/gVjK_UpX) - it's a great summary

20

Redesign Health has launched its largest fund to date, securing $175M to support over 20 new healthcare startups. Founded in 2018, the venture builder has previously incubated more than 60 companies, including Scriptology and Vivid Health. The new fund aims to address challenges such as healthy aging, interoperability, and expanding sites of care. This funding underscores investor confidence in tackling the $4T healthcare market's persistent challenges.

4

Digital health isn't just about apps and wearables. It's about rewiring our neural circuitry for wellbeing. Join me on Charmhealth's podcast as we explore the frontier of brain-based behavior change. #DigitalHealth #NeuroscienceRevolution https://lnkd.in/gTFka44P

4

Someone broke down the estimated costs of a $15 Sweetgreen salad. We need these cost graphics for digital health to help future founders. Especially for tech enabled cos, the greatest cost is labor. Much of the "value created" is in curation and matching, which means the gross margins are reliant on labor arbitrage. Pay someone $X, but get paid $X+Y% per visit. The challenge with healthcare is that you often have to pick one of two business models: 1. specialized, low volume, high cost, low gross margin % 2. generalized, high volume, low cost, high gross margin % I'd argue founders should focus on gross dollars over the lifetime of the customer (like Jeff Bezos said) instead of gross margin %'s, but we'll leave that for another time. The challenge is that many tech enabled digital health cos have high cost of goods sold (labor) and moderately high product, design, and engineering budgets. We must build differentiated solutions for patients, clinicians, and clients to be out incumbents, however, we're realizing that companies are ultimately valued on the discounted value of future cash flows. And the high SG&A costs at most organizations might be inbalanced to the unit economics of the business. I'm not sure the math pencils out for everyone unfortunately. But I'm just a guy on the internet, would love to hear the thoughts from those smarter than I (you!). Comment below. --- p.s. I have no idea the accuracy of the graphic and not an investor in Sweetgreen. Cheers. Credit: David Crowther

112

27 Comments

I’m optimistic about the potential of generative AI to reduce provider burnout and improve provider-patient interactions. However, that optimism is tempered by the data that indicates the technology is not quite ready yet. Bright Ventures is interested in digital health founders who understand the realities of provider-patient interactions, and the role technology can play in strengthening clinical outcomes. Which founders and teams are getting this right? Tag them in the comments below.

50

2 Comments

Some VC investors believe that brick and mortar - referring to a physical presence of some kind - should be avoided at all costs. Yet, the track record of clinic and hybrid care businesses in health care indicates otherwise. ==> One Medical (sold for $3.9 billion to Amazon), Oak Street (bought by CVS for $10.6 billion), Lifestance (IPO at $7.5 billion market cap), and PE-backed Premise Health (acquired by OMERS Private Equity for $1.1 billion) If a clinic is indicated as the optimal way to deliver care for that patient population, there are creative ways to build and operate them. Full article below with advice and strategies on how to build and operate hybrid clinics from my teammate Anarghya Vardhana from Maveron, Amir Dan Rubin from OneMedical Group, Steven Eidelman from Modern Animal and more!

13

1 Comment

There's been a lot of headlines lately about the demise of #VirtualCare. But, forward-looking care delivery companies and healthcare purchasers aren't abandoning virtual care; we’re reimagining and rearchitecting it to be less of a siloed service and more of the connective tissue across all of healthcare. https://lnkd.in/gfb8fDN8 #Telehealth #IncludedHealth

51

1 Comment

I’m worried about the state of venture capital and direct-to-consumer (DTC) healthcare startups. Hims & Hers is the poster child for DTC healthcare at $1.2B proj 2024 revenue and a $3.6B valuation. By most accounts, they have been an outlier success for DTC since bottoming out in May 2022. So why is this bad news for DTC healthcare? Because the market leader (Hims) trades at a 3x forward revenue multiple. And the category leader typically gets a higher valuation multiple than smaller startups. We see this phenomenon in private equity. They “roll up” smaller companies within the same category at a lower multiples just to create one larger platform that trades at higher multiples. Now back to DTC healthcare startups. If Hims commands a 3x revenue multiple, it’s not unrealistic that smaller, unprofitable startups may be valued 1-2x revenue at exit. At 2x revenue, a startup must generate $500M to produce a $1B exit in today’s market (depending on growth and profitability). Series A/B venture capitalists must see a pathway to $1B outcomes. And if the growth-stage investors with billions under management are less interested in DTC healthcare, the future funding rounds necessary for fueling growth are not guaranteed. Juxtapose this against 2017-2022 where DTC could raise Series B-E funding. Let’s take a DTC startup doing $25M after 3-4 years of operations and has already raised a Series A. By most accounts, it would be a phenomenal accomplishment. But today, investors will question the chances of that same company scaling from $25M to $500M revenue in the next 3-4 years with unknown future funding sources from Series B and beyond. You're stuck in VC-funding purgatory. Some of these companies will shut down. Some may sell for 1-3x revenue. And some may try to transition to profitable, cash-flowing businesses. All of which are certainly not the venture-backed goal the founders, investors, and employees often had in mind when first taking capital. I say this all with friends working at or starting DTC healthcare companies, I feel bad for them. I also feel bad for the patients who enjoy those products or services. To caveat (b/c I know people will object), there will be other DTC brands that exit for $1B+ (i.e., Ro). However, they were forged and scaled during a different time period where seemingly endless venture capital was available for DTC healthcare. Now we're in a different time with no end in sight. Thoughts?

149

36 Comments

Blueprint really is THE platform for mental health therapists. Not only does it give time back to practitioners but also helps them deliver even better care through data-driven insights. And Danny Freed’s personal story on why he started Blueprint is becoming a reality with Blueprint 2.0

12

Alot of bad actors and a few good actors. $2.5T HC capital raised & $1T invested by PE in last decade. $31B in 2013 vs. $217B in 2021. We know the story. Misaligned incentives - unrealistic multiples, short-term profit focus, aggressive cost-cutting, unrealistic scaling, misunderstood market dynamics, just to name a few. However, our industry needs money. But our industry is more infrastructure asset class than tech start-up (James Nicholls gave me that epiphany). Mic drop on the lyrical genius of Alex Fair of MedStartr Ventures as he literally gives the whole story poetic justice as he reads HIS POEM on this "On The Road at VIVE" episode of The Reverse Mullet Healthcare Podcast w/BP2 Health. This is the perfect episode for a Friday afternoon! He and Paulo J Machado donned the actual reverse mullets and joined us back in February at #VIVE2024 to talk about the need for REAL change in healthcare, startup focus and investor expectations. It was one to remember and one that is in desperate need of a full-length follow-up episode. Give us a like and a watch or a listen https://lnkd.in/e4w4mjkv https://lnkd.in/egmK3kMB

13

3 Comments

Here's another fundraising roundup spotted in the healthcare wilds 👀 🍃 ✅ Sword Health raised $130M (new valuation: $3B). ✅ Better Health raised $14M to deploy expanded payer partnerships. ✅ Alzheon, Inc. | Preserving Future Memories raised $100M Series E to advance development & commercialization of its Alzheimer’s treatment. ✅ CinRx Pharma raised $73M to continue its ‘Hub and Spoke’ model of startup formation. ✅ Eko Health raised $41M to scale AI-driven heart and lung disease detection. ✅ Anterior (formerly Co:Helm) secured a $20M Series A to unlock admin efficiencies for healthcare payers. ✅ SamaCare raised a $17M Series B to scale specialty drug prior authorization platform. ✅ Plenful secured a $17M Series A to streamline pharmacy operations with AI-powered workflow automation. ✅ Grayce raised a $10.4M Series A led by Maveron amid a caregiving crisis. ✅ Stitch Employment Services Inc PEO raised $8.75M in seed to support independent medical practices. ✅ Posterity Health secured $6M to fund expansion and technology acceleration. ✅ Sware raised $6M to accelerate life sciences innovation by automating FDA-mandated software validation. ✅ Keragon raised $3M, as announced in @Conno Christou’s LinkedIn post. As always, if I missed you, let me know! Each week I'm spotlighting an innovative healthcare startup. I just ask for a bit more transparency. All submissions are confidential; submit yours here 👇 https://lnkd.in/gF4DrAvJ Looking for more fundraising roundups, alongside healthcare industry news and analysis? Subscribe to Hospitalogy, my 2x/week newsletter. Join 33K+ other investors, executives, and healthcare professionals: https://lnkd.in/g-nfRqW6

40

3 Comments

I always read Rock Health's digital health reports as they give a nice pulse feel for what is happening in the digital health funding space. Good to see funds raised in H1 2024 suggest funding in the sector seems to have stabilized at 2023 levels. Its no surprise the report emphasis the buzz around AI and healthcare. There have been clear winners in the AI healthcare space in the area of process and cost optimization and the R&D space. The impact of AI in care and treatment delivery is so far much more muted. One area I never though to look at AI was in its ability to bring together multiple healthcare pathways and digital point solutions into a more holistic seamless experience for the patient. There is a clear trend away from using stand alone digital health point solutions, and could AI address this challenge by facilitating the efficient integration of disparate processes and technology into unified care programs. I can see this happening with digital health products but this will be more tricky to do with physical care programs involving clinicians and HCPs. “AI is helping us combine multiple parts of the care journey, across all care experiences. In the future, benefits navigation, clinical guidance, and care delivery won’t be delivered by separate companies or point solutions within the healthcare ecosystem. They’ll be features that work in concert within products, and they’ll happen in under 90 seconds for a seamless patient experience.” – Glen Tullman, CEO, Transcarent and Managing Partner, 7wireVentures

11