Kristen Berman

Sharing this primarily for markets outside the top 5 in VC as it's a problem I've experienced as well. One can and sometimes should criticize SV founders who have too much ambition in the way some pursue it, but a super serious problem almost everywhere else is not enough ambition, certainly to include NM. It may surprise some to hear that Seattle lacks ambition given headquarters of Microsoft, Amazon, Costco, Starbucks and others, but that's actually part of the problem--golden handcuffs and conformity, versus hungry and competitive when I grew up in WA in business in the 80s. It's also a problem with many VCs around the country now. They have become so focused on flipping to incumbents their (BT) dominance became a self-fulfilling prophecy. That's not the role of VCs -- if that's their goal they should be a CVC. NM has a similar golden handcuff problem to Seattle, but it's worse in some respects. The national labs pay really well relative to the local cost of living, so it's the career goal of thousands to spend entire careers working for the labs. In both markets the level of early stage funding is so low that it's difficult to leave big tech or labs to join a startup. And in both, the experience of big tech and labs doesn't apply well to startups. Very different world. A related challenge is SV rarely invests outside the region in would-be market leaders--most want to see those remain in CA. So we have a problem for certain, and big disconnect in the market.

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Want a front-row seat to the frontier of tech? We’ve got the role (or two) for you! We’re expanding our frontier-tech team at Blackbird by hiring a Frontier Tech Investments Associate and Foundry Fellows! Got questions? We've got answers... 1️⃣ What are the roles? 🧪 Associate = a full-time VC investment gig in our Blackbird Investments team, working directly with me. We’re looking for someone with a science and/or engineering background and more curiosity than they can handle. You’ll grow your own investment brand and practice, support our portfolio founders, and will help build Foundry, our early-stage frontier-tech accelerator. ✨ Foundry Fellow = a casual/contract gig in our Blackbird Investments team, ~15h per week for 3 months. The Fellowship is ideal for PhD students and ECRs who want to learn more about startups and VC. You’ll go deep on emerging areas relevant to your expertise (or curiosity!), get a front-row seat to groundbreaking companies in those areas, build out your non-academic network, and develop a solid writing practice. 2️⃣ Why are you hiring? We love frontier tech, and we’re ready to grow our team. 3️⃣ Wow, it’s so great that you’re starting to look at deep tech! Look, we get it: we don’t make a lot of noise about our frontier tech investing. Buuuut we’ve been deep-tech investors since we backed Tim Kentley-Klay to found Zoox back in 2014—we’ve been on incredible journeys with PsiQuantum (building the world's first utility-scale quantum computer right here in Australia!), Inventia Life Science (transforming drug discovery with high-fidelity cell models), Remedy Robotics (surgical robots for remote endovascular procedures), Opto Biosystems (minimally-invasive neural implants to treat cancer), and more. We believe that frontier technologies, and great frontier-tech investing, will be part of the solutions to the greatest problems humanity faces today. 4️⃣ When do applications close? May 31st at 11:59pm AEST. 5️⃣ I have more questions! I’m sure you do! Clare Birch and I are hosting an AMA to answer any and all questions about these roles. Want to know what a week in the life of our team looks like? What’s keeping us up at night? What our ideal candidate looks like? Come along and find out - registration link in the comments 👇 Apply for these roles: Associate - https://lnkd.in/gCfj4EUJ Foundry Fellowships - https://lnkd.in/gj6ATZVZ If you know anyone that we should meet, send me their details! Cameron Elise Ben Andrew Robin Joseph Adelaide James Olivia Lucinda Raghav Jesse Christie Mohamed Tom Amee Pablo Haya Loong Hon Joshua Benjamin Megan Harry Denzil Matthew Diana Daniel Tom Deanna Justin Amar Lilly Stone Thomas

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Thanks to Taylor Soper and GeekWire for asking the questions! I asked ChatGPT and Claude what they think of my predictions for 2025.... ChatGPT: Ken, you nailed the AI prediction—agents are definitely coming for our boring tasks, but if you’re hoping they’ll take over your meetings, we’ll see how that pans out. Your skepticism on crypto feels like a safe bet; it’s the trendy tech with a lot of bluster, but not enough muscle to transform the world just yet. As for remote work, I agree that it's not going anywhere, but predicting it’ll morph into a “flexible utopia” is like predicting everyone will suddenly love pineapple on pizza—possible, but not guaranteed. Solid overall, but maybe leave room for the remote work revolution to surprise us! Claude 3.5 Sonnet: Ken, you've got a pretty solid crystal ball there, especially on the AI agents trend and the analytics companies needing to evolve or die. Your take on remote work playing it safe (basically "same as 2024") was probably the most boringly accurate prediction - like choosing "water" as your favorite beverage. I think you underplayed the potential crypto comeback after the Bitcoin ETF approval, and your biotech AI prediction feels a bit early - we're still figuring out how to get AI to reliably order lunch, let alone design drugs. Next year, I'm turning to the LLMs for my predictions 🤣 Great to see smarter people in the article thinking in similar ways Erik Benson, Heather Redman, Sri Chandrasekar and Kyle Lui 👏👏 On to 2025!! https://lnkd.in/gUf63kRZ

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My predictions for what 2025 will look like for the world of startups 1/ Funding toward legacy vertical SaaS businesses will hit an all time high in 2025. 2/ Flight to SF: SF will be the place as a preseed & seed founder to raise their first rounds. The emerging founders will pop in in SF first before making their ways to NYC and beyond. 3/ Year of Exits: We'll see a lot of the companies that couldn't exit in 2022-2024 start to exit this year through IPO, M&A and more. Will add much liquidity towards the VC market and drive LP diversification versus in 2024 where $35B of the $72B raised towards VC firms went to the top 9 venture funds in the world. 4/ Early stage fintech makes a comeback: The peak for early stage fintech was 2022 with $4.1B raised across 970 deals. 2024 early stage fintech numbers fell to 5 year lows with only $1.9B raised across 505 angel, preseed and seed deals. Seeing some improvements in funding numbers from quarter lowers which was Q2 2024 and some improvement in Q4 2024. Macro trends, AI, and some late stage funding for later fintech cos gives me an impression early stage fintech will rebound next year. 5/ RTO is coming back: The best startups will no longer be distributed but will return to the office in 2025. We'll see an increasing amount of startups, especially the early stage ones, emphasize in person work and hires. 6/ Biohacking the supermarket: Interest in health and longevity for consumers and the advancement of AI are long to lead to more demand for personalized food plans built for each individual person. 7/ Built for you: media and everything we consume on the internet will become for you. Think an extension of the for you page on Tik Tok but for everything else you consume, shop and watch. It won't be long until media becomes personalized to you and I and your favorite influencer is actually AI. 8/ Digital Twin Simulations: Someone will build out your digital AI twin for decision making. From testing career changes to planning relationships, these virtual replicas could provide insights into life’s "what-ifs. 9/ AI buyers: Just like with the rise in SDRs, we'll soon see a company test our buying with AI. Take product features, demos, pricing and more into account and AI will optimize to buy the right vendor stack for a founder based on exactly what they need.

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Day #4 of observations from attending Home Care 100 this month: There is a cambrian explosion of "AI scribe for OASIS docs in <15 min" startups currently underway in Home Health. A new one of these is launching every few months. I'm certain we'll see 2x AI scribe vendors at the next HC100 in January. And so, I listened for the overall positioning of these products by the vendor and buyer at Home Care 100. It sounded like this: HH CEO: “I need a solution to lower the caregiver burden of clinical documentation” HH Vendor: “I offer AI to reduce the burden of clinical documentation” This may sound like a "checkmate" match between what the CEO is saying, and what the vendor is offering. But it isn't. The CEO actually has a business model problem. They cannot afford to sufficiently pay for the time it takes for caregivers to complete clinical documentation. And so, they are stuck looking for solutions that minimize the cost of personal time on documentation that caregivers have to absorb. Solutions that offer AI and the promise of driving down this cost down for the caregiver are the start, but not the endgame. If I were not building Arya, and wanted to build a standout documentation product, I would build an "AI-powered clinical documentation agency", not an AI scribe. Here's what this AI-powered documentation agency would sound like: 1. We eliminate 90% of all clinical documentation at your company. We do it at 1/10th the cost of a traditional outsourced documentation shop 2. We do this by a human-in-the-loop AI solution, that allows our human documenters to work 10x faster than DIY 3. Under the hood, we integrate with *all* the best AI out there (incl. ChatGPT) in a SOC2+ HIPAA guaranteed environment. We decide the best AI+human workflow to use for each documentation on the fly. Regardless, you always pay a flat rate, and we absorb the risk or AI vs human effort 4. Your caregivers approve each human-in-the-loop documentation. We don't publish anything to the EHR till it's approved 5. We guarantee a <1% error/ change rate on our documentation from caregivers, or we offer some money back I did some back of the napkin math to see what the economics of an such an agency might look like. With the current math, the caregiver is still absorbing upwards of $10 worth of time per OASIS documentation. If an AI-powered agency drove this cost down to the single digits per doc, might HH agencies be able to work this into their financial model and take this off the caregiver's plate entirely? Here's hoping for a "we've got you covered on the documentation " caregiver benefit coming in the future. #homecare #homecareagencies #HC100 #homecare100 #homehealth

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Founders–before you pitch your product, investors want to know: Can you sell? Grace Gong shared why this skill matters more than any metric. Grace Gong is an author, angel investor, founder of Smart Venture Media, and host of the Smart Venture Podcast. She offers practical guidance on navigating the startup ecosystem in her books 'How to Be a VC' and 'How to Be a Successful Founder'. Known for spotting promising founders, she emphasizes sales skills, strategic thinking, and execution. In a recent conversation with Grace, one big takeaway stood out: The ability to sell is non-negotiable for early-stage founders. Whether you're pitching to investors, securing a design partner, or recruiting top talent, the question is the same: can you sell? Grace emphasized that, as an angel, she looks for founders who can demonstrate this skill early—often before the product is even fully formed. Here’s what selling means in practice: 👉 Convincing a lead investor to anchor your round 👉 Recruiting the best talent to bring your vision to life 👉 Securing letters of intent from potential clients or design partners 👉 Building a cap table that shows the confidence of your network (past bosses, coworkers, or even friends willing to back you) Grace shared a great example: after introducing a founder to a potential client, she watches closely to see how the founder engages and closes. A founder’s ability to sell, she says, is about more than just metrics—it’s about proving you can create buy-in at every level. As a founder, if you want to stand out, start honing your ability to sell: 👉 your team 👉 your vision 👉 your product 👉 and yourself It’s one of the clearest indicators of future success. Founders, how are you developing this skill?

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An interesting article below, that demonstrates out how San Diego is punching above its weight.  And how Connect's strategy and execution over time, contintues to be central to that success. The article describes the current state of the market in Seattle.  (And i love Seattle.) It's a market that we tend to track with relative to venture fundings.  They used to kick our butts, we outraised them each of the last three years.  This despite the fact they have 3x as many funds there, and 9x the amount of resident capital there. (per pitchbook) Some key takeaways:  * They continue to compare themselves to SIlicon Valley. Instead, we leverage our proximity. *They whine there's not enough local investors (see note above - they have more than us). We bring over 200 VCs to SD annually! * They say founders are not connected with one another. We bring CEOs together regularly, in a variety of ways - private dinners and through our Springboard program. * They say they need to elevate their image on a national & international stage. Why we created and continue to build Five.Ten.Thirty (aka Inno Day).  * And the last paragraph - they need to concentrate on making their region a great place to live. Our mantra: "It's about Better, not Bigger." (See XEO, TL Fund). THANK YOU FOR ALL OF YOUR SUPPORT. WE ARE ON A MISSION TOGETHER!!!  (Comments, whining, suggestions on SD always welcome.) https://lnkd.in/g6Rq_f2Y

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I'm watching Slow Ventures closely as one of the most innovative funds out there. This podcast with Slow Ventures Principal Yoni Rechtman offers a refreshing take on scaling B2B software through #GrowthBuyouts centered around Metropolis Technologies case study and super interesting overview of Teamshares Rollup strategy, both Slow portfolio company. Growth Buyouts, specifically, flip the traditional SaaS playbook on its head. Instead of burning capital on customer acquisition, this approach suggests building software and then essentially "buying customers" - making a strong case for why the future of scalable business might look more like PE than traditional SaaS. This is a particularly relevant perspective for founders struggling with CAC in traditional software distribution. Also, I really believe #PE and M&A are very key elements in the transformation of most of asset heavy industries.

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Venture Capital Fundraising Deck Template: Carta and Kauffman Fellows present a comprehensive venture capital fundraising deck template to guide General Partners (GPs) in attracting limited partners (LPs). Here’s what to include: 1) Background: Highlight the unique qualifications and track record of your team. LPs are investing in the people as much as the strategy. 2) Differentiators: Showcase what makes your fund stand out—whether it’s your access to networks, industry expertise, or proprietary methodologies. 3) Investment Thesis: Present your vision for the market, future trends, and how your fund will capitalize on these opportunities. 4) Track Record: Include metrics like IRR, multiples, and past successful investments to demonstrate your fund’s potential for generating returns. 5) Terms: Outline the economic terms, including fund size, management fee, carried interest, and target raise. PS. check out 🔔 for a winning pitch deck the template created by Silicon Valley legend, Peter Thiel https://lnkd.in/ejp-Bhnu

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Breaking down the Seattle Venture Ecosystem! Kudos to Jacob Laes and Nick Khormaei for shedding light on the often complex and opaque Seattle funding ecosystem with their comprehensive investor map. For founders, navigating the venture capital world can feel like a maze, but this map offers a much-needed clearer view of where Seattle’s investors are truly placing their bets. And you know me—data is everything! Data drives decisions and, in this case, holds the key to unlocking new opportunities for startups. This project covers 58 firms with insights on: Industry sector focus Investment stages Portfolio track records It’s a game-changer for founders looking to connect with the right investors more efficiently. Check out their breakdown for a detailed view, and feel free to reach out for the full data set! Evan Poncelet Jesse Posey #Startups #Entrepreneurship #VentureCapital #SeattleTech #Funding #TechInnovation #Investing #StartupCommunity #VentureEcosystem #FounderJourney #BusinessGrowth #SeattleStartups

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As we dive into 2024, the Series A fundraising landscape is becoming increasingly daunting. Investment standards are soaring, and fewer startups are making the cut. Series A investors are finding many seed stage companies too premature. The median valuation jump from seed to Series A skyrocketed from $19.5 million in Q1 2022 to $28.7 million in Q1 2024. Investors now demand stronger revenue performance, targeting $2 million to $3 million in ARR, up from $1 million to $2 million. Alarmingly, only 12% of Q1 2022 seed startups secured Series A funding within two years, down from 31.8% in Q1 2020. #venture #earlystage #seedtoseriesa #seed #seriesa #inspireglobalventures https://lnkd.in/gW4bkcNy

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Big announcement below! 👇 Let's talk about the current state of GP-LP affairs: 🤯Emerging VC managers have absolutely exploded over the past 5 years. 📈 At the same time, more and more data has surfaced that shows that emerging VC firms tend to outperform larger, established firms. 🤔 All of this has made it intriguing but tough for LPs to know where to direct their attention. 🛍 GPs frequently meet LPs at conferences who are window shopping but not committed to the asset class or emerging managers. 🧾 And both crews get overwhelmed by transactional convos. So Sydney Paige Thomas and I created Abundance. Abundance is a private, nomination-based retreat for active LPs and top emerging GPs to form new experiences together and build lasting relationships. Why Abundance? Abundance is knowing that there is more than enough for more than one to succeed. And a single win within a community is a win for the community itself. The journey of an emerging VC manager from 1st close to final close or Fund 1 to Fund 2 is (1) communal and (2) requires an abundant mindset. LPs look for structure and confidence to feel comfortable investing in early VC firms. Yet many of the feeds we scroll and conferences we attend reinforce inherent power dynamics and transactional thinking, which allows scarcity mindset to creep in for emerging GPs. Some of the best events I’ve attended have been intentionally non-transactional, e.g. Camp Hustle, Recast Summit, and other GPs’ AGMs. The fundraising success stories we see usually involve a community (usually of other GPs & LPs) coming together to support and open doors for the emerging GP. We designed Abundance to be an immersive gathering that fosters these connections. Starting tonight, ~100 GPs and LPs are descending upon Seattle for the inaugural Abundance retreat. This has been under wraps for months and I can’t wait to see it come to life! Thanks in advance to our awesome sponsors who were the earliest believers in this vision: Sydecar, Amazon Web Services (AWS), Gunderson Dettmer, & Zelda Ventures. And shoutout to my dad Ed Illig for logo design & Halle Kaplan-Allen being the first sponsor to say yes 🤩 Presented by The Council Capital & Symphonic Capital.

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Insightful breakdown from my great Partner Omri Amirav-Drory on the simple factors that really separate the top 1% of investors from the rest, and how more operators should become investors! https://lnkd.in/gEiZdT2h

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The best things Founders can receive from investors (apart from term sheets) is feedback! At Funden, about 50% of pass notes come with some sort of feedback thats actionable and helpful to the Founder. Here’s an example of a pass note from earlier this month: “We focus on having live, paying enterprise customers with a repeatable, scalable sales process and line-of-sight to series-A financial metrics" Boom! That kind of transparency is unprecedented in the venture world. This type of feedback says, "Hey we're excited about the industry and product, but we need to just see a little more proof of concept on the business before we can dive deeper". Now, this founder has someone they can reach back out to, who is going to be familiar with them, and the Founder will now be right in their investable sweet spot! Another one we got recently was a few investors are telling the same founder, independently of one another, that their round size was far too big for their level of traction. Hearing the same type of feedback as to why they're passing in such a short period of time has a real and meaningful impact on how founders are structuring their raise. And we're happy to help them. https://lnkd.in/gZ_tVkTB ---------------------- Funden is the #1 fundraising platform connecting founders to capital. Founders use our tools and strategic guidance for quicker, more effective fundraises. Investors use us to receive curated, quality deal flow and broadcast co-investment opportunities to our audience of 1000+ global VCs, family funds, angel networks, syndicates, and more.

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Unpopular opinion: Raising too much capital is more dangerous than not raising enough. I recently had the chance to chat with Matt Watson on the Startup Hustle podcast about why raising should support your strategy, not the other way around. Too often, founders orchestrate their strategy to hit metrics that will help them raise another round, which is the tail wagging the dog.  We discussed how to avoid the risks of raising too early, launching too early, scaling too early, and other harbingers of startup failure. Check it out here: https://lnkd.in/g3JkcBHi #StartupHustle #Startups #Entrepreneurship #Leadership #VC #Capital

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I'll be co-hosting a Cap Table Management Workshop with Fidelity Investments on Tuesday, 11/19! This will be part of a series of Startup Workshops that help founders with practical tips and actionable learnings. If you are a founder looking to raise future rounds of funding, this workshop is for you. Learn how to create, manage, and scale your cap table! https://lu.ma/vp0tzwtm

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