Lee Vendig, II

📈 Highlights from TXOGA’s Monthly Energy Economics Review (MEER) – January 2025 TXOGA’s Monthly Energy Economics Review (MEER) provides a unique perspective on the oil and natural gas industry, bridging gaps in public data to deliver timely insights and comprehensive estimates across Texas’ production, trade, and consumption. 🔹 Texas’ oil and natural gas production reached record highs in October 2024, according to the latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) data, including: ·      Crude oil production: 5.86 million barrels per day (mb/d) ·      Natural gas liquids (NGL) production: 3.97 mb/d ·      Natural gas marketed production: 34.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) While natural gas marketed production achieved a record high, natural gas gross withdrawals (35.8 bcf/d) were slightly below their all-time high of 36.0 bcf/d set in August 2024. The difference between gross withdrawals (wellhead production) and marketed production in Texas is primarily due to venting and flaring, removal of non-hydrocarbon gases, processing losses, and onsite consumption for compressors. As the latter three uses tend to be relatively consistent, EIA’s estimates suggest that venting and flaring activity decreased in October, contributing to the increase in marketed production. 🔹 Sustained near-record production through December 2024. TXOGA estimates that Texas maintained near-record production levels through December 2024, with: ·      Crude oil production: 5.85 mb/d ·      NGL production: 3.93 mb/d ·      Natural gas gross withdrawals: 35.5 bcf/d ·      Natural gas marketed production: 33.9 bcf/d In 2024, Texas produced an estimated 43.1% of U.S. crude oil and 29.2% of U.S. natural gas marketed production, further increasing its share of both U.S. and global output. 🔹 Natural gas flow highlights – October 2024 ·      Texas produced 27.7 bcf/d of dry natural gas, according to TXOGA’s estimates. ·      Texas consumers required 13.6 bcf/d, primarily for industrial use and electricity generation. ·      Exports totaled 12.0 bcf/d, including 8.4 bcf/d of LNG exports plus 3.6 bcf/d via pipeline exports to Mexico (U.S. International Trade Commission data) 🔹 Energy exports. Texas exported $192.0 billion in energy products during the first 10 months of 2024, based on U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) data. 🔹 ERCOT Highlights – December 2024. Within the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) region, thermal and dispatchable generation accounted for as much as 93.2% of electricity generation at peak times and 64.6% on average for the month of December. TXOGA’s MEER continues to provide the data and context needed to understand Texas’ essential role in U.S. and global energy. Check out the full report for more insights! https://lnkd.in/g8tSBmUm #TexasOilAndGas #EnergyEconomics #TexasEnergy #NaturalGas #CrudeOil #EnergyLeadership #Oilindustry #Productivity #NaturalGas #QuantitativeAnalysis #Strategy #Innovation #Markets #Data

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The One Minute Energy Update – 4-30-24) NYMEX Natural Gas and Market Indicators Today’s NYMEX natural gas pricing shows a slight downturn with the current price at $2.03 per MMBtu, marking a $0.15 decrease from last week and a significant $0.60 drop year-over-year. Historical data underscores a sharp contrast from previous years, with the monthly average in 2022 standing at $6.64 compared to $2.743 in 2023. Anticipating forward movements, NYMEX estimates for upcoming years suggest a gradual increase: $2.65 in 2024, $3.54 in 2025, and reaching $4.01 by 2026. Market Technicals Technical analysis indicates current resistance at the $2.06 and $2.10 levels, with a pivotal point at $2.02. Support begins lower at $1.98 and extends to $1.93. This setup comes as we observe a break above the 50-day, 20-day, and 9-day moving averages, which stand at $1.76, $1.78, and $1.79 respectively. Basis and Regional Gas Prices Both PG&E Citygate and Southern California Citygate basis prices have risen, driven by anticipated increases in demand. The 2023 first-of-the-month index shows PG&E at $9.83 and SoCal at $10.95, with SoCal Border averaging at $8.14. Production, Supply, and Demand Dynamics Today’s estimated gas supply totals 105.4Bcf, closely aligning with the recent average. Production estimates are set at 99.9Bcf against today’s demand of 96.2Bcf. The upcoming week’s forecast suggests a demand spike, moving above the norm for this season. LNG and Pipeline Flows LNG exports stand at 11.5Bcf, with exports to Mexico at 6.3Bcf and Canadian imports at 5.5Bcf. A year-on-year comparison highlights a 4.1Bcf/D decrease, marking the most significant annual drop since 2021. Storage and Weather Forecasts U.S. gas storage levels are currently 439Bcf above last year and 655Bcf over the five-year average, totaling 2,425Bcf. Weather patterns remain mild with bullish forecasts for the coming months, supporting higher natural gas prices moving forward. Energy Sector Trends and Renewable Energy Crude oil prices are on a downward trend with the current price at $82.65. Renewable energy contributions are notably impacting CO2 emissions, primarily through a shift from coal to natural gas and solar in the power sector, which saw a 7% emission reduction in 2023. Carbon Offsets and Fixed Price Offers Carbon offset opportunities are varied, ranging from $1 to $375 per unit, providing options for diverse carbon footprint mitigation needs. Indicative fixed prices for natural gas across different regions and periods have been provided, reflecting potential future pricing dynamics. Summary The energy market remains sensitive to weather forecasts, influencing NYMEX and basis prices. While short-term trading opportunities seem limited, the outlook for the latter part of the year suggests greater potential for market activity. #EnergyMarket #NaturalGas #NYMEX #RenewableEnergy

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How have Brent Crude Oil prices been doing? The chart presented below, sourced from Statista and based on data published by the International Energy Agency (IEA), illustrates the historical trends of Brent crude oil prices since 1976. * The peak price of Brent crude was recorded in 2012, reaching $111.63 per barrel.  * A subsequent high occurred in 2022, with prices attaining $100.93 per barrel.  * The average price announced for Brent crude in 2024 is $81.13 per barrel. It is noteworthy that Brent crude, along with West Texas Intermediate, serves as the primary benchmark for crude oil pricing, with all other oil prices adjusting in accordance with these two indices. Stay Tuned! 👇 👇 👇 WhatsApp: +968 7999 2732                      +971 50 57 67 234 Mail: [email protected]          [email protected] LinkedIn: petro-daleel Instagram: petro_daleel X: Petrodaleel #crudeoil #Brent #price

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Petroleum drawdowns everywhere but SPR. The EIA reports are out and overall, the total inventory down 0.9 MMB to 421 MMB whereas petroleum products drew down 2.3 MMB to 812 MMB. The latter two combined 3.2 MMB to 1233 MMB, upward pressure on gasoline prices. Net exports continue. Net oil in was 1.8 MMB/D and net products out were 5.1 MMB/D. That’s an overall net export of 3.3 MMB/D, a drawdown of 23.2 MMB, more than responsible for last week’s drawdown. The U.S. remains a net exporter of petroleum products. Production was maintained at 13.6 MMB/D. There was no change in the number of rigs working. One less rig is doing miscellaneous work and one more rig chasing gas. The ratio is 482 oil/103 gas. One less rig is working the GOM, 13 total federal, and 12 in the GOM. Crude oil prices gained $3/BBL last week, except for Brent which was up $1.11/BBL. WTI finished the week at $71.54, add $3.35/BBL for LLS and $3.05/BBL. Prices are back to their November 22 level, but still in their lower window ($65-75). The crack spread is below $9.00/BBL, where it’s been since December 4. Gasoline hit a low of $3.02/GAL, down a penny from the prior week, and is creeping back up this week. Natural gas prices at Henry Hub rose 32¢ to $3.15/MMBTU while futures rose a dime to $3.28/MMBTU. The Editorial Department of Oilprice.com writes on December 20, “Oil Prices Under Pressure as Weak Demand and Economic Uncertainty Persist” “The crude oil market faces a bearish fundamental outlook in the near term. Weak demand growth, rising non-OPEC+ supply, and cautious central bank policies are likely to weigh on prices as 2025 approaches. While geopolitical risks and U.S. export activity provide some support, these factors are insufficient to offset the broader headwinds. Long-term trends, including energy transitions and structural changes in global demand, add further complexity to the market. Traders and market participants should prepare for heightened volatility as economic, geopolitical, and regulatory factors continue to influence crude oil markets. Without significant intervention, such as aggressive stimulus measures or major supply disruptions, oil markets are expected to remain under pressure well into the new year. Oilprice.com also published an open letter to Secretary of Energy nominee Chris wright from Dan Doyle , president of Reliance Well Services, on December 16. An excerpt: “There is one long-shot regulation reversal that might work, however. Undo the damage of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 in which the federal royalty rate was increased by 33%. What a tremendous boost, a trickle down right to the bottom line. But there’s a rub, and that is that the IRA is now law and rolling back royalty rates would require an act of Congress. You know, the place where our fellow Republicans hold a five-seat advantage. As beneficial as this one would be, it doesn’t look good." Merry Christmas. "I'll be back".

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OPEC and its allies have been withholding supplies in a bid to prop up prices, but that’s seen the group losing market share to rivals including U.S. shale producers. IEA---- Global balances would flip to a surplus in the fourth quarter should OPEC stick to its plan to return production.

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Texas Oil & Gas Fuels Economic Growth Amid Global Energy Challenges Geopolitical tensions, particularly with Iran and Russia's war in Ukraine are creating price premiums and supply risks in the oil markets. Dean Foreman, Ph.D., Chief Economist Texas Oil & Gas Association joined Grayson Brulte on the Autonomy Economy podcast to discuss the pivotal role of the energy industry in driving economic expansion amid global uncertainties. 🎧 Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://lnkd.in/gVqyMGGH 🎧 Listen on Spotify: https://lnkd.in/gA9mQyma 🎥 Watch on X: https://lnkd.in/gCGfn6Cj 🎥 Watch on YouTube: https://lnkd.in/giYJBxwp #AutonomyEconomy #RoadToAutonomy #TXOGA #Oil #OilandGas #TexasOil #Economics #GeoPolitical #Podcast #OilMarkets #Economy #GlobalEconomy

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Who drilled the best wells in Lower 48 last year? At this point, we have enough data across all basins to make a ranking! In 2023, the private operator Kaiser Francis crushed it, with their 19 wells in the Permian making an average of 305k barrels in their first 12 months. Other top Permian operators like Marathon, Coterra, ConocoPhillips, and Oxy also rise to the top, but surprisingly, two Uinta operators round out the top six: Ovintiv and XCL. We have been covering the incredible Uinta a lot over the past couple years, but it’s great to see the potential translate into this kind of performance. Despite being the earliest unconventional basin, the Williston saw excellent well results last year: Grayson Mill, Chord, Marathon, and XOM all landed in the top 12. Counter-narrative, operators have extended high performance there despite a mostly-drilled play core. In our age of consolidation, many of the largest operators make this list in multiple basins, including ConocoPhillips (Permian, EF), ExxonMobil (Williston, Permian), Devon (Permian, Williston), and Oxy (Permian, PRB). However, it’s still heartening to see top privates here like Kaiser Francis, XCL, Grayson Mill, and Mewbourne, even if they’re being acquired! Encino Energy rounds out the list as the only Appalachian player, thanks to excellent Utica well results. They would rank a lot higher if BOEs were included! However, even using a 20:1 equivalency would result in a list filled with Haynesville and Appalachian operators, a reminder of just how energy-prolific shale gas wells can be. Who will top the list in 2024? Coterra currently sits atop our ranking (using forecasted production to generate a 1-year cumulative), though not as many operators make our 15 wells in-basin per year cutoff. Across Lower 48, 2024 is looking even more productive than 2023 and has the potential to be the most productive year ever for unconventionals. Next year’s ranking will be interesting! #oilgas #permian #energy

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Energy Transfer LP announced that it has reached a positive final investment decision (FID) for the construction of an intrastate natural gas pipeline connecting Permian Basin production to premier markets and trading hubs. Read the full story here: https://lnkd.in/gHf73Hbw #BICMagazine #Pipeline #Permian

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Interesting Update on OXY: Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY) is considering divesting a portion of its operations in the Permian Basin in Texas, potentially fetching over $1 billion. This divestiture aligns with Occidental's broader strategy to reduce its substantial debt, which currently stands at $18.5 billion. To facilitate this process, Occidental has engaged financial advisors to seek potential buyers for its assets in the Barilla Draw area. However, the outcome of this sale remains uncertain, leading to a slight decline in shares during today's trading session. Furthermore, Occidental's CEO, Vicki Hollub, disclosed that a delay in regulatory approval has postponed the company's $12 billion acquisition of CrownRock until later this year. Consequently, plans to divest other assets valued at approximately $6 billion have also been delayed. Nonetheless, Occidental remains committed to divesting the Barilla Draw assets, encompassing approximately 27,500 acres and currently producing around 24,400 barrels of oil equivalent per day. OXY is scheduled to announce its earnings on May 7, with analysts anticipating year-over-year declines. Projections suggest earnings per share and revenues to be $0.58 and $6.78 billion, respectively, reflecting a decrease of approximately 37% and 5.5% compared to the previous year. According to TipRanks' Options tool, investors anticipate a 4.06% movement in share prices following the earnings release. On Wall Street, analysts maintain a Moderate Buy consensus rating on OXY stock, with seven Buys, 11 Holds, and zero Sells recorded in the past three months. Despite a notable 11% increase in its share price over the past year, the average price target of $71.94 per share suggests a potential upside of 11.57%. https://lnkd.in/gVDTDH5j

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Permian Resources Divests Delaware Basin Midstream Assets to Kinetik The deal includes approximately 60,000 gross operated acres dedicated by Permian Resources under long-term, fixed-fee agreements for natural gas gathering, compression and processing and crude oil gathering services, Kinetik said. Read the full story: https://lnkd.in/gG9QNsqh

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Permian M&A: Oxy Shops Delaware Assets, Family Oil Cos. Stand Out As operators scour the Permian Basin for M&A opportunities, they’re keeping an eye on a tepid divestiture market. Family-owned oil companies also stand out among the pack of private inventory holders remaining in the Permian, according to Enverus Intelligence Research. Read more: https://lnkd.in/gVz63U-n

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Long laterals are more important than ever in the Permian Basin, with 25% of Midland Basin wells and 8% of Delaware Basin wells reaching three miles (or longer). How are these long wells producing compared to shorter laterals? My top plot shows the average normalized production rates over time, grouped by lateral length. The light red comprises wells less than 2 miles, the medium red is 2 milers, and black is 3 milers or longer (for exact cutoffs, see the footnotes). Each line is normalized by the production rate per foot, adjusted to a 10,000 foot lateral. In other words, this removes the obvious effect of the longer laterals having more reservoir to produce. Looking at the production curves in this way, the long laterals produce less per foot in early time, but the gap narrows up later in the wells life. This effect is more exaggerated in the Midland Basin. Functionally, this translates to lower IPs (per foot) and shallower decline for 3+ milers. Keep this in mind as you interpret early-time productivity trends! The middle chart shows cumulative degradation of 3+ milers vs. 2 milers measured at different time intervals. Wells are grouped by Novi's Rock Quality Tiers. A couple observations: - In both subbasins, higher-quality rock has less per-foot degradation than lower-quality rock. - In both subbasins, but especially in Midland, early-time degradation is more than later time. - These metrics are noisy due to small well counts, but 24-month cums show between 4% and 10% per-foot degradation for Tier 1/2 rock. Per-foot degradation this low translates into strong economics for longer laterals, reflected in the rapid growth of long laterals in the Permian (bottom chart). Here, the Midland dominates the Delaware. ExxonMobil leads the way, with 135 long laterals drilled in 2024. Note that the Midland Basin is significantly more consolidated than the Delaware, giving more contiguous acreage for extended laterals. Increased lateral length has been a major driver of improved per-well productivity and drilling efficiency numbers that have driven solid 2024 production. With 4-mile tests now coming online, extended laterals are more important than ever in the Permian.

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Petroleum inventories declined slightly last week. The EIA reports are out and overall, we declined 3.3 MMB to 1629 MMB. SPR climbed 1.4 MMB to 392 MMB. Crude oil inventories declined 5.1 MMB to 423 MMB. Petroleum product inventories increased only 0.4 MMB to 814 MMB.  The latter combined for a draw of 4.7 MMB on the combined inventory. That’s upward pressure on gasoline prices. All levels are in their normal operating ranges, considering SPR established a new low late last year. Net oil imported was 3.1 MMB/D and net petroleum products exported was 6.1 MMB/D. The result is 3.0 MMB/D out, a drawdown of 21.12 MMB for the week. We remain energy independent and a net exporter of products. Production climbed again to 13.6 MMB/D. The rig count also increased, up seven rigs, up five rigs chasing oil and two chasing gas (482 oil/102 gas). Two more rigs were added in the federal offshore, one in the GOM. WTI crude prices climbed $3.32/BBL while Brent lost 38 cents. LLS has been holding steady at $71/BBL and change. WTI finished last week at $68.58/BBL. Add $5.20/BBL for Brent and $2.60/BBL for LLS. Gasoline has been bouncing above $3/GAL. It was $3.03/GAL Thursday a week ago. The 3-2-1 crack spread was $8.80/BBL, down almost $2/BBL from Friday a week earlier. Natural gas at Henry Hub lost 56¢ to $2.83/MMBTU and futures lost 13¢ $3.18/MMBTU. Jennifer Hiller writes in the WSJ’s Climate and Energy, “A $20 Billion Plan to Power Data Centers Faster”. “Tech companies have a huge appetite for electricity to power AI data centers and an even bigger problem. Connecting to the grid and building new generation is a complex, yearslong grind. “To speed the process, Alphabet’s Google, clean energy developer Intersect Power and private equity firm TPG’s Rise Climate fund plan to build massive industrial parks to combine data centers with renewable power generation and battery storage. “An investment target for this decade aims to add $20 billion in new renewable power infrastructure that would be paired with gigawatts of data center capacity across the U.S., the companies said Tuesday. The idea is that co-locating would ease the burden on the electric grid and allow development to go faster. Projects will still be grid connected. “The first industrial park project—in a yet undisclosed location—aims to start operating in 2026 and be complete by 2027.” Later she writes, “Electricity demand forecasts from U.S. utilities continue to rise, with the latest expectation of a roughly 16% increase by 2029, according to a new report from Grid Strategies, a power-sector consulting firm.” Expansion of electricity demand may paint a rosy picture, but the EIA stats do not show growth in the present. August stats are out and show 2024 electricity 3% ahead of year’s low water mark, but no where near the high-water mark of 2022. The growth is not yet evident. Check out Haley Zaremba’s Dec 12 article in Oilprice.com, “The End of Lithium? Proton Batteries Offer Hope for Clean Energy”.

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Another day, another M&A announcement -- what does it mean for ComboCurve users? "As majors continue the consolidation trend and double down on their core acreage, they'll continue to shed anything they deem as "non-core," presenting unique opportunities for smaller players. We will continue to see these smaller players shine as they move more quickly on growing their acreage positions. And as for ComboCurve users, they have the tools they will require when the need to be competitive and stay agile is at an all-time high as M&A is not slowing down," says VP of Customer Experience Allyson Kidwell, PMP, CSM. How are you seeing the effects of M&A's? Weigh in in the comments! https://lnkd.in/gWFD9c9U

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Energy Transfer Announces Pipeline Project Connecting Permian Basin Production Supplies to Multiple Markets - Energy Transfer LP has announced a final investment decision for constructing a new intrastate natural gas pipeline connecting Permian Basin production to markets and trading hubs. - The pipeline, previously known as the Warrior Pipeline, is now renamed the Hugh Brinson Pipeline in honor of Hugh Brinson. - The pipeline aims to provide increased transportation capacity to meet the growing demand for natural gas. - Phase I of the project will include approximately 400 miles of 42-inch pipeline with a capacity of 1.5 billion cubic feet per day extending from Waha to Maypearl, Texas, expected to be operational by the end of 2026. - The construction will also include a 42-mile, 36-inch lateral known as the Midland Lateral to connect processing plants in Martin and Midland Counties. - Phase II plans to add compression to increase the pipeline's capacity to about 2.2 billion cubic feet per day, contingent on shipper demand. - The combined cost for Phases I and II is projected at approximately $2.7 billion, backed by long-term commitments from reputable counterparties. - The pipeline will connect shippers to Energy Transfer’s existing intrastate network and offer access to major hubs throughout Texas and beyond. - The project is expected to enhance Energy Transfer's position in supporting growth for power plants and data centers in Texas. - Energy Transfer LP operates one of the largest and most diversified energy asset portfolios in the U.S. with over 130,000 miles of pipeline. https://lnkd.in/gpfF6G32

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The Untold Story of U.S. Crude Oil Production Growth Unlock Premium Strategies Here: https://energyrogue.com Join us in this enlightening video conference as we delve into the intriguing history of U.S. crude oil production. Our expert speaker walks you through pivotal moments since 1990, revealing the ups and downs of this vital industry. Don't miss out on this essential exploration! #CrudeOil #USProduction #OilHistory #EnergySector #VideoConference #OilIndustry #EconomicGrowth #SpeakerInsights #OilTrends #LearnAboutOil

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