Matthew Bochenek

joel guglietta, phd proprietary Labor Market Strength Index—a composite of Non-Farm Payrolls, the Unemployment Rate, the KC Fed Labor Market Conditions Index, and Jobless Claims—has taken a notable downturn in recent weeks. The value of this multi-factor indicator lies in its ability to capture broader trends. And right now, the trend has fallen to recessionary level. Popular indicators are supporting this view: the Sahm rule has been triggered, the three-month average for private payroll gains has also fallen to recessionary levels while DoubleLine CEO Jeff Gundlach unemployment rules have also been triggered, when the unemployment rate surpasses its 36-month moving average, it has historically signaled an impending recession. We increased long position in 2Y U.S. Treasuries. The decision reflects our view that softening labor markets could weigh on growth and, in turn, exert downward pressure on short-term rates. We refrain from turning outright bearish as some of our leading indicators (survey based) are pointing toward a potential US re-acceleration. These survey probably reflect the optimism around Trump policies and will have to be confirmed by real activity in the coming months. #InvestmentStrategy #MacroInsights #LaborMarket #Treasuries #RiskManagement

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Despite the recent Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) reports being lauded as "strong" and "solid," a critical underlying metric tells a different story. The Implied Hiring Rate has actually plummeted in the last two NFP reports, exposing a glaring disconnect between surface-level praise and deeper labor market dynamics. Is this time different?

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You should listen to Nathan Geraci and I leverage VettaFi sentiment data to talk #ETFs for ‘25. But it’s ok to read the recap Nicholas Wodeshick from the show too. . - Use case for defined outcome, structured protection, and covered calls from NEOS Investments Calamos Investments Innovator ETFs® - Growing interest in CLOs and bank loan #ETFs from Janus Henderson Investors Invesco US Panagram BondBloxx - #Dividend strategies from SS&C Technologies and ProShares - Plus Ben Johnson, CFA commentary Zachary Csillag Troy Cates Tim Urbanowicz, CFA Andrew Nelson, CFA Matt Kaufman, CETF® Frank J. Tirado, MS Jessica Fernandez Michelle DeWitt, CIMA® Rob Stewart Danielle Gilbert Christopher Murphy Paul Baiocchi, CFA Steve Munroe JoAnne Bianco, CFA Joanna Gallegos Colleen Kapoor Cole Feinberg

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December indigestion caused by the Federal Reserve's comments today? The S&P was humming along until the FOMC cut 25 bps as expected, and the changes to the statement were trivial (although the vote to cut wasn’t unanimous). Chairman Powell wasn’t a reassuring voice at this meeting, and the market’s confusion led to hawkish projections and speculations for 2025. The S&P 500 closed at the day's lows, -3%. Capital flow was heavy at 145%. Today's move lower in the stock market was significant. We’re below the 50-day moving average for the first time since September. We’re not oversold (yet), and we’re (only) back at mid-October levels. From a technical standpoint, the rest of December should be a race for the exits….but dip-buyers will (most likely?) do their thing. It's worked for the last 12+ years, so why stop now? Considering today’s drop is rooted in a market unprepared for a Fed that wasn’t gung-ho with spiking the punch bowl a lot more, it could mean that once investors relax and think, they won’t believe this is all that bearish. If that’s the case, watch for an enjoyable bounce back. In summary, the fundamental landscape isn’t radically altered; however, the emotional landscape temporarily is.

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My latest Substack post analyzes $XOM once again catching $TSLA in terms of market cap. Last 5 qtrs: $XOM returned ~$40bb to shareholders via divvies, buybacks. $TSLA: $0.00 That is what really matters. But the key to investing is the second derivative, and as EV sales slow (good for demand for oil, obvs, and for $XOM) I fail to see the Silver Bullet for $TSLA. Why? Because Elon let his product line get old. No amount of robotaxi/FSD necromancy is going to change that. Trade accordingly. Excelsior! --Jim

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Out of complete necessity, I will host another CollinsCast 10/23 at 5pm ET to discuss $TSLA EPS before the mgmt call begins at 5:30pm. Video call link: https://lnkd.in/eEErpw_7 Or dial: ‪(US) +1 402-732-7305‬ PIN: ‪403 326 826‬# I have never seen a more confused bunch of "analysts." $TSLA is going to market with a 7.25 year-old (3) and 4.5 year-old (Y) product lineup. Old product requires discounting, and that pressures profit margins. Full stop. That is why $TSLA earnings have been consistently mediocre and margin pressure at what was proclaimed by nitwits--as recently as 12 months ago--as "the most profitable automaker in the world" is incessant. As shown in the chart below, $TSLA has LOST $550 BILLION in market cap in the past 2.75 years, which is an extraordinary diminution in value. And if you compare RELATIVE performance vs., for instance, $NVDA, or even $AAPL, which pays a dividend (something TSLA has never done,) $TSLA stock has been an absolute disaster since the beginning of 2022. But Wall Street hides that. Tomorrow, I will explain why. Join the CollinsCast.

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=> The U.S. labor market report produced a knee-jerk reaction among major FX – but MXN, COP, BRL, and ZAR are bucking the trend => MXN clearly likes the idea of a stronger growth in the U.S. Further, President Sheinbaum continues to send orthodox policy signals (including the post-election fiscal adjustment), and there is now a possibility that parts of controversial judicial reform might be revised => BRL/COP/ZAR’s outperformance is even more interesting – Domestic factors still getting noticed? (chart’s source - Bloomberg LP)

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New or smaller VC, PE or HF manager? AUM less than $50 million? Great Performance? Trying to raise assets? Struggling and failing?   Sounds all too familiar: It’s due to poor or non-existent marketing Let’s get real about raising assets for “sub-institutional” managers, those with AUM between $0 and $50 million. IT’S HARD AND A STRUGGLE.   Raising assets in a crowded, hyper-competitive, complex and complicated market from investors that are risk averse, stringently selective and idiosyncratically demanding is more challenging and difficult than most new and sub-institutional managers understand. The fact is the majority of sub-institutional managers fail to get AUM beyond personal capital long with small amounts from family and friends even when they have exceptional performance. Plainly speaking: There is a lot of BS, hype, propaganda and completely wrong information about marketing and fundraising for small managers with AUM less than $50 million Since 2011, Johnson & Company has specialized in meeting the marketing challenges for "sub-institutional" managers. 25+ years experience, expertise and skill uniquely equips a new or smaller manager with the FACTS and proven structured, disciplined and focused PROCESS supported by independent high-integrity data and research, accurate information, objective insight, expert instruction and frontline intelligence that optimizes marketing process execution to maximize the success, efficiency, economy, expedience and effectiveness of raising assets. If you’re a new or smaller manager, with AUM less than $50 million struggling and failing to raise assets, first get the facts: https://johnsn.com/facts If after your review of the “FACTS”, you’d like a candid, no-nonsense conversation about marketing and raising assets, contact me, I welcome the opportunity. [email protected]

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Outlooks for key components in Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index remained strong in December, with new orders (orange) seeing a particularly large spike  

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𝗕𝗿𝗶𝗱𝗴𝗲𝘄𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗻𝘀 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝘆 𝘁𝗼 𝗿𝗲𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗹 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗵 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗲𝗲𝘁 𝗘𝗧𝗙 https://lnkd.in/dCYdE-zK   Risk parity funds for retail investors have not worked well over the past decade or so (and Bridgewater’s All-Weather strategy has also underperformed for some time): the pioneer in the industry (Wealthfront Risk Parity Fund with $1.3bn in AUMs) is going to be liquidated in January https://lnkd.in/dya2H6SZ , and other products have also failed to beat a simpler 60/40 strategy.   This despite the carnage in bond markets in 2022 and the elevated asset correlations (or, more likely, because of…).   I guess it all boils down to the specific strategy used: this product will also use leverage in an ETF, so it will be interesting to see how it plays out. 

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Just Launched (9/9): #CPSL | Calamos Laddered S&P 500® Structured Alt Protection ETF.™​ ​ Our Structured Protection ETFs stayed strong amid recent market volatility. ​ ​ Responding to investor demand, CPSL will deliver a systematic single-ticker solution, granting access to our 100% downside protection S&P 500 ETFs in a laddered format.​ ​ Learn more: https://okt.to/6RQuwr

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I occasionally like to scan through the PE subreddit to keep a pulse on what early career fund managers and others looking to break into the industry are talking about. Recently, I found a question asking if it’s possible to achieve a healthy work/life balance and realized I haven’t said a lot here on the topic. In private equity, the demands are high, especially for those starting out. That means long hours, weekend work, and constant travel are common—making burnout seemingly inevitable. However, here are some ways that I’ve been able to keep that burnout at arm’s length over the years: - Establish clear work hours and communicate with your team to ensure mutual respect for personal time. - Prioritize high-impact activities and delegate when you can. - Remember to take care of your physical and mental health. Regular exercise, a balanced diet, and adequate sleep are non-negotiable. Personally, I favor ice or street hockey to stay fit. - Make time for family and friends to maintain a support system. Nurturing these relationships provides emotional support and helps maintain a sense of normalcy outside of work. - Find ways to give back—you would be amazed at how great it feels to help others who may not have the same options or opportunities you do. Through the Frank Family Foundation, I established as a teen entrepreneur, my mom and I work together to determine which nonprofit organizations to support. We take the time to meet with those in need so we can understand how best we can help. Remember, your career is a marathon, not a sprint. You’ve got to find a way to work toward your goals while maintaining a fulfilling personal life if you want to outlast your competition. https://lnkd.in/db4EJh9k

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Türkiye’s pivot musings: => Türkiye’s manufacturing PMI dropped to the post-pandemic low in September - yet another sign (alongside positive net reserves, improving external balances, lower gold imports and FX-protected deposits) that the policy U-turn is working as intended. => But is it enough for a monetary policy pivot and a rate cut already this year? A lot will depend on the central bank’s ability to meet its year-end inflation target of 38%. Quick calculations show that for this to happen, monthly CPI should average 1.15% or less in September/December. The September print (on Thursday) will show whether this is feasible.

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Has the Music Finally Stopped Playing for the Texas Two-Step? Last week’s decision by SCOTUS in Harrington v. Purdue Pharma L.P. has ramifications well beyond its impact on the Purdue bankruptcy. Well-capitalized corporations may want to reconsider whether the legal strategy of separating current and future mass tort liabilities from operating assets followed by placing the liable entity into bankruptcy - a.k.a. Texas Two-Step - can achieve the desired finality from future claims in light of this decision. Importantly, investors also need to carefully consider the impact of this decision on equity valuations as a result of its potential to adversely change the cost of resolving mass tort liabilities.

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We covered a lot of ground on Yahoo Finance earlier today, including the latest ISM data, inflation, employment, rate cuts, and a few technical levels to watch during this market pullback. Thanks for having me on! https://lnkd.in/gXFuFJxi

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Issuance of asset-backed securities (ABS) has boomed over the past year. Is this an expansion of the opportunity set, or an example of late-cycle behavior? Listen as @@TCW's Securitized team discuss the drivers of growth in issuance and which areas of the market they view as compelling: https://tcwgrp.com/1e3xxr

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MSO earnings season starts this week, with eight of the top ten US operators reporting. Consensus analyst expectations are for the top ten MSOs to show a Q/Q 2.62% contraction in revenue and adjusted EBITDA to decline 6.18%. (1/3) The top ten MSOs' Y/Y revenue is expected to grow by 3.20%, and AEBITDA is expected to expand by 17.30%. Analysts predict the highest Y/Y revenue growth for Ascend Wellness Holdings (CSE: AAWH.U / OTCQX:AAWH) at +22.40%, and Cresco Labs is predicted to have the best Y/Y improvement in AEBITDA at +62.00%. Finally, here are some of the companies reporting this week: May 7: Ascend Wellness Holdings (CSE: AAWH.U / OTCQX:AAWH) May 8: Green Thumb Industries (GTI), Verano, MariMed, Inc. May 9: Curaleaf, Trulieve, TerrAscend, Cannabist, Jushi Holdings Inc. Source: FactSet

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...45 Thornburg has filed to ask for permission to tack ETF shares onto its mutual funds (and vice versa). The list of 45 ETF-as-a-share-class filers now includes: Perpetual, DFA, F/m, Fidelity, First Trust, Morgan Stanley, Guinness Atkinson, TCW, PGIM, AB, Neuberger Berman, Northern Trust, GMO, Touchstone, Franklin, Schwab, Allspring, Principal, AMG, Janus Henderson, T. Rowe Price, Virtus, Thrivent, Nuveen, Shelton Funds, Natixis, Impax, Hartford, Potomac, John Hancock, SBH, Tidal, BlackRock, SSGA, J.P. Morgan, BondBloxx, SEI, Aristotle, Invesco, Palmer Square, DWS, Lord Abbett, First Eagle, and Hotchkis & Wiley. Note that just 42 of the 45 are still active as the Perpetual, First Trust, and Neuberger Berman filings are no longer on the SEC's pile. Here's a link to the filing: sec.gov/Archives/edgar…

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If you think portfolio risk management is just about diversification, think again. This article sheds light on some surprising strategies that challenge common perceptions. Here are some thought-provoking takeaways: - Did you know that reducing the number of investments in a portfolio can sometimes actually decrease risks? It's all about strategic selection. - Contrary to popular belief, actively managing risk doesn't necessarily mean more frequent trading. In fact, a hands-off approach can be a smart move. - One of the key points discussed is the importance of understanding the correlation between investments, a factor often overlooked in risk management strategies. - Asymmetric risk and the role it plays in portfolio management is explored, offering a fresh perspective on balancing risk and return. - Ever considered tail risk hedging? This article dives into this lesser-known strategy that can enhance risk management effectiveness. Share your thoughts and feelings on these unconventional risk management strategies. https://lnkd.in/ecgSpH93