Matthew Scamardella

77 WABC Radio: #1 Station in New York (and based on that data arguably the #1 in the U.S.) owned and operated by Red Apple Group. Below is a full-page announcement in New York Post highlighting the recent bipartisan Congressional committee decisively voting to safeguard the presence of AM radio in all automobiles across the United States. This commendable action upholds the vital role that AM radio plays in providing reliable news, public safety information, and community engagement—particularly during emergencies. This crucial decision comes despite efforts from automakers like General Motors to remove AM from future models. AM radio remains a vital resource for news, information, and community engagement, and this decision ensures that it continues to serve millions of listeners—both now and in the future. Founded in New York in 1968 by Chair/CEO John Catsimatidis, Red Apple Group is one of the largest private companies in North America and has leading operating businesses and interests in consumer, energy and refining, investments and insurance, infrastructure, logistics, media and sports, real estate, retail, and technology. With evergreen capital "we think and invest in decades, not quarters." DM or email with opportunities. #WABC770 #AMRadio #Media #NYC #RedAppleGroup #Broadcasting #Congress #BipartisanSupport #AutomotiveIndustry #GeneralMotors #Ford #BMW #Tesla #MercedesBenz #Toyota #Honda #Volkswagen #PublicService #Legislation #USCongress #Senate #HouseOfRepresentatives #johncatsimatidis

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Usually, trendy investment themes or investment fads take more than a few years to rise back to prominence after a period of subpar performance or a fall from grace . https://lnkd.in/eEeP5EXT It seems SPACS are hot on the heels of meme stock resurgences and looking to release version 2.0. With public equity markets again at all time highs with valuations to match, one would think that combined with a  dose of near decade high interest rates would not provide a particularly supportive breeding ground for SPACs.  https://lnkd.in/eX-6J98V If the incoming administration’s nominee for Commerce Secretary thinks they are once again pretty viable maybe the second wave will have a better track record for the investors than the last waves did. I’m sure the SPAC underwriters/sponsors will be just fine either way. #spacs #spac #bubble #markets #investing #bearmarket #speculation #greed #investopedia #bloomberg

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I've traded STIR for over 18 years. Couldn't help notice interesting surge in volume in SOFR Z4-Z5 calendar as spread narrows to 58bp. It is interesting as not only the market has begun to price fewer cuts in 2024, it has taken out more than an entire cut from 2025. Is the market beginning to price higher for longer? This could also imply that if the Fed cuts too soon, inflation might reaccelerate. It opens up some really interesting trades in mid curve options for me. What are your thoughts?

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December indigestion caused by the Federal Reserve's comments today? The S&P was humming along until the FOMC cut 25 bps as expected, and the changes to the statement were trivial (although the vote to cut wasn’t unanimous). Chairman Powell wasn’t a reassuring voice at this meeting, and the market’s confusion led to hawkish projections and speculations for 2025. The S&P 500 closed at the day's lows, -3%. Capital flow was heavy at 145%. Today's move lower in the stock market was significant. We’re below the 50-day moving average for the first time since September. We’re not oversold (yet), and we’re (only) back at mid-October levels. From a technical standpoint, the rest of December should be a race for the exits….but dip-buyers will (most likely?) do their thing. It's worked for the last 12+ years, so why stop now? Considering today’s drop is rooted in a market unprepared for a Fed that wasn’t gung-ho with spiking the punch bowl a lot more, it could mean that once investors relax and think, they won’t believe this is all that bearish. If that’s the case, watch for an enjoyable bounce back. In summary, the fundamental landscape isn’t radically altered; however, the emotional landscape temporarily is.

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A thoughtful look at implications for the CEMAC financing markets of Congo’s recent local currency default. Fitch expects liquidity on the regional bond market to remain tight over the next two years despite a loosening of monetary policy with a resumption of liquidity injections since June 2024. Regional market roll-over needs will rise and reach 36% of the outstanding debt in 2026. Congo (Foreign-Currency IDR: CCC+; Local-Currency: CCC), particularly after its default, and Gabon (CCC+) appear the most exposed, with large funding needs in addition to regional refinancing needs. Congo, Gabon and Chad (B-/Stable) are also vulnerable to price shocks. Free-to-air summary from Cedric Berry at https://lnkd.in/e46_pJ9R; the full report from Cedric and colleagues Hawa Ly and José Pedro Mantero available to subscribers at https://lnkd.in/eada2ACp   #fitchoncredit #emergingmarkets #cemac #congo

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All eyes are on Big Tech as earnings hit a fever pitch. In this edition of the Weekly Brief, the Office of the CIO at Rockefeller Global Family Office helps prepare you for the week ahead. • Robust economic data and more hawkish commentary from policy makers pushed stocks lower again last week, with many companies falling despite solid earnings reports reflecting the weight of elevated expectations. • China's first quarter GDP came in better than expected though continued softness among domestic consumers raised questions about the stability of the nation's growth trajectory and posed challenges for European luxury retailers, which posted lackluster sales numbers for the region. • Looking ahead to a heavy earnings week, the biggest focus for the market will likely be on several mega cap tech names, specifically whether they can continue to defy optimistic forecasts and carry the market through a difficult period once again. For access to the full Macroeconomic and Financial Market Indicators report and other unique market insights, reach out to me to learn more.

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Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields move higher in early trading. The 10-Year Treasury yield is currently 3.804%, above the open at 3.733%. Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are top of mind this morning as Iran launched a ballistic missile attack on Israel Tuesday. In a speech earlier this week, Fed chairman Powell stated that the recent 50 basis point rate cut should not be taken as a signal that the central bank will continue cutting rates aggressively going forward. Powell reiterated that the Fed would take a slow and steady approach based on data. Yesterday’s Job openings report came in a little stronger than expected. This morning’s ADP employment report did the same rising by 143k jobs vs forecast around 128k. Nonfarm payrolls will release Friday. Due to the timing and collection of these data points, jobs data can often be mismatched. Market participants will be watching closely to this release as it could impact the path ahead for Fed monetary policy. Mortgage rates remain under upward pressure this morning and will likely print higher all else constant.

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As the two key event risks, US elections and FOMC meeting, gets cleared, there are a couple of things that one should keep in mind when thinking about rates. 1 - Expectations on what Trump can deliver are high. There could be disappointment in the short term. 2 - After coming off for two years, inflation risks look skewed to the upside. 3 - Bond vigilantes may well be a recurring theme amidst fiscal and inflation worries. #DBS #Rates #FixedIncome https://lnkd.in/gmv6iNrK

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Trump’s nomination of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary has ignited a debate that’s both ideological and practical. While Bessent’s Wall Street expertise and financial acumen are undeniable, his past association with George Soros—a polarizing figure for conservatives—raises questions about the consistency of this choice with Trump’s “America First” platform. Bessent’s backing of cryptocurrency innovation, including Bitcoin, aligns with fostering economic freedom but could alienate more traditionalist factions of Trump’s coalition. Supporters highlight his ability to navigate complex global financial challenges, but skeptics worry this decision prioritizes professional credentials over ideological alignment, potentially fracturing conservative unity. This choice underscores the delicate balance between expertise and values in public appointments. Will Bessent’s financial prowess justify his controversial connections? The Senate confirmation hearings will likely determine the answer. What’s your take? Does experience outweigh ideology in shaping national financial policy? #treasurysecretary #trump #uselections #maga

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Muhammad Ali vs. Joe Frazier… Mike Tyson vs. Evander Holyfield II… Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao… These are all considered some of history’s most memorable boxing matches (even if one is more famous for ear-biting than boxing). There is no denying that we all love a good fight… but I bet you won’t guess who has been at the top of the fighter contention in the entire world for sometimes decades on end… The Fed. The slogan “Don’t fight the Fed” was first coined by Martin Zweig, a renowned investor and financial analyst, in 1970. He basically stated that if you fight against the Fed’s policy, it’s not going to go well for you. However, there has always existed an opponent that never hesitated to stand toe-to-toe… Who might you ask?... The market. During the Covid era (2021-2022), even despite Fed tightening, the stock market kept rising. Meanwhile, the bond market did dramatically the opposite (as rates shot higher), fearing the Fed wasn’t going to do enough to curb inflation. Going back to the 2008 crisis, when the Fed was actually cutting rates to free up liquidity in the financial system, the stock market decidedly sold off. A few years later, in 2013, the “Taper Tantrum” occurred where the Fed announced plans to gradually reduce bond-buying, and the bond market sold off sharply, causing rates to unexpectedly spike. Today, the Fed stands in one corner hoping to do whatever is necessary to stay nimble and in control of the fight. The problem is, the market is starting to question if the Fed is going to throw a surprising hook in the form of removing cuts next year in anticipation of stickier inflation to come. This could definitely throw the market off its game a bit, considering stocks are still at all-time highs currently. The reality is, the market is either fighting the Fed (anticipating tighter or less restrictive conditions than telegraphed), or it is simply going with the plan until otherwise proven. In today’s environment, there is so much uncertainty that it’s hard to see how the markets will play too far off script. So for now, both the market and the Fed are dancing in the ring, waiting to see how the next opponent plays out their next move. With Non-Farm Payroll behind us (receiving a rather in-line result), all the focus will be on CPI this Wednesday. Currently the markets are anticipating core coming up to 3.3% (again). Recognizing we are in the 8th round of a 10-round match before the ring announcer calls the winner of the match (Powell), this will likely be the last opportunity the markets have to square up to their opponent until this thing goes the distance (December 18th Fed Meeting). As the saying goes, “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face”… so don’t get caught with your hands down!!

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The WSJ's article over the weekend about the investigation of Ken Leech for "cherry picking" -- the practice of allocating profitable trades to one account and saddling another account with less profitable trades -- underscores a few critical points for DOJ enforcement: 1. DOJ now has the "big data" tools to investigate and charge these cases. 2024 shows these results: two financial advisors were respectively sentenced for "cherry-picking" schemes. In January, a commodity-trading advisor in Miami was sentenced for a "cherry- picking" scheme involving cryptocurrency futures. In September, an investment advisor in Connecticut was also sentenced for a similar scheme involving securities. As these cases show, these schemes cut across asset classes. 2. "Cherry-picking" cases are no longer solely SEC/CFTC actions. They are now frequently worked in parallel by DOJ and civil regulators. 3. These cases take a long time to investigate. DOJ and SEC/CFTC have improving tools to identify patterns in voluminous trade data. But doing so takes a lot of time. The data's complex nature also creates openings for defense arguments that the government's conclusions about the data are either unfair or wrong.

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Vigilance is the name of the game. With U.S. debt sustainability in question, targeting the right #bond maturities is more important than ever. Read more Thoughts From the Bond Vigilantes, here → https://bit.ly/4itXEG9

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Vigilance is the name of the game. With U.S. debt sustainability in question, targeting the right #bond maturities is more important than ever. Read more Thoughts From the Bond Vigilantes, here → https://bit.ly/49HDzIk

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For insight on the mid-cap space, check out this video featuring Boston Partners' Tim Collard, portfolio manager of John Hancock Disciplined Value Mid Cap Fund: https://lnkd.in/eK7u6DMW Learn more about John Hancock Disciplined Value Mid Cap Fund (JVMIX): https://lnkd.in/eVN7UdjB #JohnHancockProduct #ActiveManagement

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