Michael Turok

On April 10th, Consensys has received a wells notice by SEC. The SEC believes that Consensys is functioning as an unregistered broker-dealer through its earnings from the MetaMask Swaps and MetaMask Staking products. Now Consensys sues SEC over ‘Unlawful Seizure Of Authority’ over Ethereum. Consensys is seeking a legal determination that: - Its MetaMask Swaps service does not classify Consensys as a broker-dealer - The MetaMask Staking service does not constitute a securities offering - Ether (ETH), the native cryptocurrency of the Ethereum blockchain, is not considered a security. MetaMask Swaps enables communication with third-party decentralized exchanges and charges a 0.875% service fee. Regardless of whether this could be considered a broker-dealer role, it seems counterproductive to me that US regulators and industry members are quickly escalating issues to court rather than finding consensus at a roundtable.

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An interesting working paper from Chicago Booth demonstrates how LLMs can outperform human analysts in financial statement analysis. Highlights: 1) A GPT-4 model using chain-of-thought reasoning achieves 60% accuracy on earnings forecasts, compared to 56% for human analysts. 2) The model generates a 3.36 Sharpe Ratio on a long–short portfolio (though this seems somewhat too good to be true). 3) The authors introduce a novel method for anonymizing data in SEC filings by removing any company-specific information. Check out paper here: https://lnkd.in/e8jz98Zz

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It’s exciting to see Open Field’s long-term vision and investments play out across the AI megatrend, including those such as Cerebras, focused on “new AI hardware solutions”!

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Grandpa Buffet has fried the brains of many finance professionals regarding the topic of leverage. When I explain my use of leverage, the common skeptical question is what if the market has bad returns? This answer is much less sarcastic than my typical one: "The important implication here is that if we believe the levered portfolio is unattractive to invest in, it must also mean we believe the unlevered portfolio is unattractive to invest in.1 If 60% ERP + 40% BRP is negative, no amount of scaling up or down will change it; we’d be better off just holding cash. " #stocks #leverage #investing #business #tothemooon!

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Maybe this paper from Andrey Itkin can help to get a semi-analytical prices for the same kind of options when the market smile is no longer obtained from a CEV model but from one with a ZABR or double ZABR volatility modelling... A second question is whether a market model, like the FMM of Fabio Mercurio or its little cousin the CFM I design, is or is not a better starting point for the pricing. Indeed in these two modelling, there is no need to take into account the 'asianing' coming from the observation period of the underlying...

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The benchmark KSE-100 index closed at 93,292, marking a robust increase of 2,432 points, or 2.7% week-on-week (WoW). JS Global Deputy Head Research Muhammad Waqas Ghani wrote that the stock market remained bullish during the outgoing week. During the week, the SBP cut its policy rate by an additional 250 basis points to 15%. The decision was mainly influenced by the declining inflation trend, which marked the 4th consecutive rate cut in the ongoing easing cycle, bringing cumulative reduction to 700 basis points from the peak of 22%, he said. Market got a further boost when eight Pakistani companies were added to the MSCI Frontier Markets Small Cap Index, a move expected to attract global investors and accelerate foreign fund inflows. According to the SBP data, remittances for October 2024 reached $3.05bn, marking a 24% increase compared to the same period of last year, the JS deputy head added. https://lnkd.in/dbpKeYme

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US big tech and semi's have begun to climb back upward off the back of solid #earnings from AMD, however July seems largely about an uncharacteristic decline for mega-caps in particular. This decline coincided with the Japanese Yen beginning to potentially rebound after recent steep declines (we think the BOJ's hawkish decision is likely to continue this trajectory). Many seem to suggest this decline in both has been coincidental, but we think it's part of a similar leveraged trade that some may recognize as the Japan carry trade. It should be interesting to follow how this trade balances out with mega-caps earnings, especially if they wind up following a similar positive tone set by AMD (it's worth noting thus far Microsoft, Tesla, Google, Starbucks, & others reported negatively interpreted quarterly earnings). OVOM Research, TradingView #Research #Economy #Markets #Macro #Equities

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Jake Dollarhide, CEO of Longbow Asset Management explains why he thinks Alphabet Inc. is a leading value tech stock and examines its position in the #AI competitive landscape. (This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security.) CNBC CNBC Overtime CNBC International The Wall Street Journal The New York Times New York Post The University of Tulsa: Collins College of Business The University of Tulsa Tulsa Remote Rotary Club of Tulsa City of Tulsa Tulsa Regional Chamber Bloomberg Reuters University of Oklahoma Rotary International Oklahoma State University Oklahoma State University-Tulsa The University of Tulsa Graduate School Gathering Place Student Investment Fund The University of Tulsa Tulsa World Media Company The Oklahoman The Journal Record NYSE Federal Reserve Board Federal Reserve Bank of New York YMCA of Greater Tulsa YMCA of the USA World YMCA Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis ICE 36 Degrees North Tulsa Innovation Labs Friends of the Katy Trail Harwood International

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"I believe I heard a collective sigh of relief across Wall Street as many investors and analysts were nervous about NVIDIA and the entire #tech center ahead of this announcement," said Michael Schulman, chief investment officer at Running Point Capital. 📰We were quoted by Reuters this afternoon—following #Nvidia's release of first quarter #earnings and #future projections—in an article by Caroline Valetkevitch and Arsheeya Bajwa. 🦅SUMMARY: Nvidia's #AI ambitions continue to soar, but restrictions on sales to #China and ‘in-house” chip competition from its own customers hangs over its future. 📈After four consecutive quarters of earnings that blew past Wall Street analyst estimates, Nvidia just flexed its muscles again, delivering solid Q1 sales and Q2 projections that outpaced expectations. From fiscal 2020 to 2024, Nvidia nearly 6x revenues to $61B while nearly 9x earnings to nearly $13 per share. That frantic growth does not have to be maintained, but investors still want to see market leading growth from this $2.3 trillion behemoth. 🪓Their announced ten-for-one stock split and increased dividend should also be a huge positive rally catalyst for the stock in afterhours trading and over the next several days. 🐂#AI_chip_demand_begets_more_AI_chip_demand: Management’s second quarter revenue projections bested estimates by an incredible $1.2 billion. This bullish performance indicates longevity of demand for chips that can process large language models (#LLMs) and #generativeAI. The forecast indicates that we are still early in the cycle, that AI chip demand begets more AI chip demand, and that their chips that help data-centers, chatbots, crypto-miners, AI, and other cutting-edge tools are a hot commodity; the main risk would be if for some reason #TSMC is not able to meet Nvidia’s production demand. 🏏The generative AI and LLM rally that has propelled the tech center may continue a while longer, especially since we are in the early innings of utilization across industries and corporations across the globe. It is interesting that cloud customers have fallen to less than 50% of revenues which may indicate that #chip demand is broadening across customers. ⚖Nvidia's recent GTC 2024 conference showcased their ambition to become a one-stop shop for building AI infrastructure. Their new #Blackwell platform and expanding software offerings strengthen their position, and improved switch performance could keep their networking business humming. However, recent restrictions by the US on sales of certain chips to China, while not a major short-term blow, dampens their long-term prospects in this critical market, and ‘in-house” chip competition from current customers like Alphabet Inc. and Apple hangs over its future. https://lnkd.in/gEBvwf57

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Just released a new paper "Empirical Model of VIX Volatility and SPX Variance" on how one can relate VIX skew with that of SPX skew. https://lnkd.in/ekn_ZqxE

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Those hoping a revival of term premium would increase treasury yields are forced to face the facts, as term premium remains depressed and not terribly volatile. In recent months, rate expectations remain the key driver of US Treasury 10-year yields. As recent as April, the size of Fed Fund rate cuts priced for Jan-25 was 34bps, which was consistent with a UST-10y of 4.70. Ahead of NFP release the strip discounts 107bps of rate cuts and the US Treasury yield is 3.94%. For now, these are joined at the hip. #STTInsights

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My latest Substack post analyzes $XOM once again catching $TSLA in terms of market cap. Last 5 qtrs: $XOM returned ~$40bb to shareholders via divvies, buybacks. $TSLA: $0.00 That is what really matters. But the key to investing is the second derivative, and as EV sales slow (good for demand for oil, obvs, and for $XOM) I fail to see the Silver Bullet for $TSLA. Why? Because Elon let his product line get old. No amount of robotaxi/FSD necromancy is going to change that. Trade accordingly. Excelsior! --Jim

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CNBC Arabia's Hussein Sayed, CFA, CMT and May Ben Khadra interview Syntax Capital, LLC, CIO Sandeep Sharma, CFA on US and European equity strategy post US elections and what to expect after a stellar performance by risk assets. #equitystratey #riskassets

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Excellent insight from Daniel Ezra. The market clearly needs the solution Entegra offers to mitigate unnecessary volatility caused by the "juniorization" of trading complex assets.

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$NVDA After market activity thus far has not matched the 8% suggested by options pricing, but post mkt NVDA does remain above intra-day peaks of 974. 2Q Revs at $28.0b above Est & a 10/1 stock split! I discussed in recent days the cycle for NVDA as well as likely projection into/post earnings. Tonight we'll talk SOX along w/ whats in store for Energy and Transports. @Marketsurge @IBDinvestors #IBDPartner

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Now with Pat out of the picture, CFO and CPO functions in the face of David Zinsner and MJ Holthaus as interim co-CEOs of Intel could see a faster adoption of AI with optimized ROI. This could see Intel stock price move higher, but how quickly will it recover the lost ground? #risefromtheashes #Turnaround #semiconductors #technology #investment

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Looking for a macro edge in 2025? 🚀 I just posted a new piece on using high-yield credit spreads (my favorite macro “canary” 🦜) to flip between risk-on and risk-off. Not only did it boost returns for a 2x Nasdaq-100 strategy, but we even threw in a dollar index ETF for risk-off—and ended up with no negative years in the backtest! 📈 If you’re curious about blending straightforward market signals with more dynamic canaries, check out my post. I’d love to hear your thoughts and experiences! 🧠 https://lnkd.in/gcbXnwuF #QuantMage #SystematicInvesting #Investing #StockTrading #HighYield #Macro

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BREAKING CRYPTO GOOD-NEWS 🤗 : LEGITIMIZATION OF THE CRYPTO-INDUSTRY 🤔 !?! A major Wall Street bank (BNY) receives approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to offer crypto-asset custody services! This marks a significant milestone in the mainstream #adoption of crypto, given that such #approval signals growing acceptance of crypto by traditional financial institutions. Also, considering that BNY, as any other traditional financial institution, has considerably robust security and compliance protocols and measures in place (imposed by law), offering crypto-asset #custody services may provide investors (specially institutional ones) with major confidence to buy and hold (the latter using such services) #cryptocurrencies, which in turn, boosts institutional crypto-adoption. Additionally, another key takeaway that's often overlooked is the fact that a SEC's approval of this kind is an indirect #legitimization of the crypto-industry, considering that publicly, such governmental institution has repeatedly disincentivized crypto through various past actions (i.e. by presenting various lawsuits and complaints against crypto-companies, such as Binance, Ripple, and Coinbase, mainly focused on allegations of many of them offering unregistered securities to investors, market manipulation, as well as failure of registering as exchanges or broker-dealers). Such divided stance does confuse the governmental institution's proper view of the cryptocurrency market, but regardless of what its stance might be, all of its actions lead to one certainty: the SEC acknowledges the fact that crypto is not going anywhere and is #HERETOSTAY! In such sense, as the crypto-market keeps on growing, the #SEC and many governmental institutions around the world will keep on trying to make their contribution to the crypto-world (whether positively or negatively), which will in turn keep it relevant and make it much more solid for the future. Thus, again acknowledging, directly or indirectly, the fact that CRYPTO IS HERE TO STAY! So, start questioning the mere hype on mainstream media and start learning to comprehend what truly is behind crypto and the #disruption brought by it! Because it's the future that's at stake, so we must act accordingly. Start growing and protecting your legacy... THE RIGHT WAY 💲 ✨ !!! #Bitcoin #crypto #banks #finance #grow #protect #legacy

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The Institutional Investor Research Survey has become an industry benchmark. This year for the first time, Al Ramz Capital is listed as a research contributor, which is a rewarding payoff for our steady efforts to bring more market intelligence to our stakeholders. Your voice is important, whoever you decide to vote for. Don't be shy and cast your vote (link below)!

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