Olcay Yilmazcoban

WAYMO -- WAYCOOL or GHOST RIDER? If you preside in San Francisco, Santa Monica or Phoenix you are now seeing driverless Waymo taxies making their way through town on an ever-increasing basis. The network is expanding, and I can honestly say that in the Santa Monica / West Los Angeles area I have not driven anywhere in the last two months without seeing one of them on the road every time. In fact, sometimes they are so prevalent that there might be three in a row waiting at a stop light. It still is kind of spooky seeing cars moving around with no driver, or anyone for that matter, in the front seat. It's not exactly the same as the Headless Horseman but it does conjure up that image in my imagination. I have not taken a ride in one, but several family members have and report their satisfaction. Waymo is a division of Alphabet (GOOGL). I have not seen any visible evidence of General Motors (GM) Cruise vehicles which I understand are still being road tested, while Tesla (TSLA) has been projecting their autonomous vehicle vision for some time. For now, Tesla seems to be behind but that could change quickly. GM is likely to use their own branded vehicles, and it would seem that Tesla will likely do the same. However, Waymo technology could be outfitted on any cars. That seems like a big advantage, staying out of the car business and just being like the "Intel/Microsoft" inside personal computers which is a much higher margin business. There has been a lot of noise in the business journals and chat rooms about a Waymo initial public offering but nothing from Alphabet itself. They recently concluded a $5.6 billion investment round; see TechCrunch post below. The autonomous race is on, and it will be expanding rapidly from here on out. I just wonder if we will ever see an autonomous police vehicle stop a wayward autonomous taxi and write it up for some violation as yet unknown. Will traffic school be an option? #waymo, #autonomousvehicles, #selfdrivingcars, #GM, #Generalmotors, #tesla, #Investing, #business,

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Seed VCs are turning to new ‘pro rata’ funds that help them compete with the big firms Alpha Partners, SignalRank and now SaaS Ventures help seed VCs pay for shares when big VCs try to price — or push — them out Lee Edwards, partner at Root VC, has a saying at his firm that “pro rata rights are earned, not given.” That may be a bit of a stretch since pro rata refers to a term that VCs put in their term sheets that gives them the right to buy more shares in a portfolio company during consequent funding rounds to maintain an ownership percentage and avoid dilution. Still, while these rights are not exactly “earned,” they can be expensive. One of the latest trends in VC investing these days are funds dedicated to helping seed VCs exercise their pro rata rights. https://lnkd.in/dRM3RvdA By Christine Hall

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We’re excited to announce that Pyka has raised $40M in Series B funding to accelerate the commercialization of their autonomous electric aircraft! Led by Obvious Ventures, with support from Piva Capital, Prelude Ventures, Metaplanet, and Y Combinator, this investment will expand Pyka’s impact in sectors like agriculture, cargo transport, and defense logistics. With commercial operations already underway across multiple continents and partners like Dole and Embraer, Pyka is transforming aviation while driving sustainability and decarbonization. ⚡✈️ More here from TechCrunch: https://lnkd.in/gGYfc824

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I recently saw this metric from Carta’s 1Q24 VC Fund Report, which is very concerning. DPI... is nowhere to be found in earlier vintages that probably should start showing DPI. Funding early-stage projects is great, but ultimately, these venture dollars need to exit their investments and pay back their limited partners. That’s where the metric Distributed to Paid-In Capital (DPI) comes in. While managing a fund, we get interim measures during the life of the fund (e.g. IRR, MOIC), but ultimately, “you can’t eat IRR.” If you want to build a lasting venture capital organization, you need to start showing DPI for your fund. Keep in mind that this is traditional VC data from Carta, and is not strictly crypto venture. Crypto venture tends to get liquidity earlier (tokens) and things tend to go parabolic sooner (faster, more unicorns) - but I’d wager that the data here is somewhat similar for Crypto VCs… Not as much DPI as there should be from these earlier vintages. Read the full article, as well as a recap of all the crypto fundraising rounds for August, here: https://lnkd.in/g3eVJ-iF

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The largest acquisition in crypto history occurred just last month: Stripe's $1.1B deal for Bridge. This isn't just a headline—it's a signal of how payment rails are evolving at the intersection of crypto and traditional finance. This week at Lw3 in Dallas, I’ll be speaking on why this acquisition is more than a milestone—it's a glimpse of the future. Crypto-native payment rails are no longer a niche experiment; they’re becoming foundational to global commerce. At Reciprocal Ventures, we’ve been investing in the crypto payments ecosystem since the early days, partnering with pioneering companies like Coinflow Labs, Higlobe and True Markets. This space has been at the forefront of innovation, and we’ve seen firsthand how scalable, efficient, and transparent payment rails are reshaping the way value moves in a digital-first world. I’m excited to explore what this acquisition means for the growth of this ecosystem and why it's only the beginning of a broader wave of innovation and opportunity. If you’re at Lw3, come say hi. I'll be with Steven Feldman — we’d love to connect and share ideas.

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Closing out on YC W24 batch with the ever-present question: Are YC Valuations Too High? 🔥The same burning question resurfaces whenever Y Combinator unveils its latest batch. At Acacia, we dive into this semi-annual debate with a nuanced perspective. 🎓Start with the fundamentals of SAFE agreements, which cap the price of equity in future priced rounds. Valuations are not being set, but expectations sure are. 👩‍🍼Next acknowledge that many YC companies are in their nascent stages, often pre-revenue and reliant on their first external capital, usually from YC itself. 🤝Not only are valuations not being set, but YC isn't setting them. Founders set caps and target raise amounts considering market trends, YC terms, feedback from angels and VCs, and more. With a low acceptance rate and strong historical track record, YC founders ask for more (right or wrong.) 👉The process is intricate and merits a careful approach from investors like Acacia, who invest in companies, not an entire batch. 🎰 Often, we encounter YC startups asking for valuations that seem to include every possible future success. Our Investment Committee carefully considers whether the price reflects real-world potential or an over-optimistic scenario. Companies that rank strongly on revenue but are fully priced at 40x or higher multiples risk being priced to perfection. The biggest risk here is being set up for down rounds, as companies can miss growth targets for many reasons (recently, macroeconomic factors like interest rate spikes.) 🎯As we navigate the complexities of startup valuations, particularly those emerging from YC, our goal at Acacia isn’t just to invest. It’s to partner with companies whose potential to grow and succeed aligns realistically with our assessment and market trends. 🎤What’s your take on YC valuations? Have you experienced similar questions or challenges in your investment decisions? Share your thoughts below.

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Kettleborough VC has been active for ~6 years, invested in ~30 companies, gone through ~80 funding rounds, witnessed ~12 exits including ~4 instances of partial principal erosion, seen ~4 seed to $100M journeys, tracking ~29% XIRR across the portfolio. A couple of IPOs from the portfolio surely seem very much in line ahead.

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Summary: Bolt's CEO has threatened legal action against an investment bank involved in their recent fundraising efforts, claiming they signed a binding term sheet for $200 million but did not follow through. Key takeaways: Bolt's CEO believes there was miscommunication at Silverbear Capital, one of their lead investors, leading to confusion about the fundraising deal. A leaked term sheet showed Bolt trying to raise $200 million in equity and $250 million in marketing credits, with a unique pay-to-play structure. The involvement of Silverbear Capital and The London Fund in the deal remains unclear. Counter arguments: Silverbear Capital's partner insists there was no miscommunication and the deal was never discussed or approved. The London Fund has confirmed discussions with Bolt's management but denies any finalized transaction. #venturecapital

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Big announcement below! 👇 Let's talk about the current state of GP-LP affairs: 🤯Emerging VC managers have absolutely exploded over the past 5 years. 📈 At the same time, more and more data has surfaced that shows that emerging VC firms tend to outperform larger, established firms. 🤔 All of this has made it intriguing but tough for LPs to know where to direct their attention. 🛍 GPs frequently meet LPs at conferences who are window shopping but not committed to the asset class or emerging managers. 🧾 And both crews get overwhelmed by transactional convos. So Sydney Paige Thomas and I created Abundance. Abundance is a private, nomination-based retreat for active LPs and top emerging GPs to form new experiences together and build lasting relationships. Why Abundance? Abundance is knowing that there is more than enough for more than one to succeed. And a single win within a community is a win for the community itself. The journey of an emerging VC manager from 1st close to final close or Fund 1 to Fund 2 is (1) communal and (2) requires an abundant mindset. LPs look for structure and confidence to feel comfortable investing in early VC firms. Yet many of the feeds we scroll and conferences we attend reinforce inherent power dynamics and transactional thinking, which allows scarcity mindset to creep in for emerging GPs. Some of the best events I’ve attended have been intentionally non-transactional, e.g. Camp Hustle, Recast Summit, and other GPs’ AGMs. The fundraising success stories we see usually involve a community (usually of other GPs & LPs) coming together to support and open doors for the emerging GP. We designed Abundance to be an immersive gathering that fosters these connections. Starting tonight, ~100 GPs and LPs are descending upon Seattle for the inaugural Abundance retreat. This has been under wraps for months and I can’t wait to see it come to life! Thanks in advance to our awesome sponsors who were the earliest believers in this vision: Sydecar, Amazon Web Services (AWS), Gunderson Dettmer, & Zelda Ventures. And shoutout to my dad Ed Illig for logo design & Halle Kaplan-Allen being the first sponsor to say yes 🤩 Presented by The Council Capital & Symphonic Capital.

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Two hypotheses for the coming Pentagon environment: good for VC-backed and back for VC-backed… The first hypothesis is pretty straightforward, the sheer number of VC alums and VC adjacent, from the VP to the DepSecDef would logically lend to the idea that the building would naturally get more VC friendly. Not overtly mind you, I don’t see folks rolling in and outright steering funds into companies in which they have interest, more a matter of the folks holding the reins actually knowing how that world works on a deep level and implementing policy that really helps. The second hypothesis goes like this: the admin has, at best, 18 months to really get changes moving, while they have all three seats of power, before midterm pressures smack an aspirational agenda with the cold fish of reelection prerogatives. Likewise, the best I think we can hope for these private sector titans to take a break from making markets to make $200k/yr as a DC-dwelling bureaucrat, is about two years. That also happens to be the going tenure of an appointee-level official. So the White House and the E Ring have 24 months to make a difference for venture backed firms before the political gravitational pull swings the building back into a regular orbit around the budgetary sun…which is…about 1 1/2 POM cycles…the frozen middle has held there breath for longer before… I’m probably wrong in bother cases, just a casual observation.

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Join Carta leaders as they recap this year’s breakthroughs, share the 2025 roadmap, and unveil the vision for FP&A tailored for private fund CFOs! Tactyc by Carta #treasury #fundmodeling #productroadmap

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It's already hard to get into the top-tier YC world. It's 10x times harder if you're in Europe. Even if you're in Silicon valley, it's still hard to get into the YC ecosystem. Why? Because YC is tightly closed and protected environment. An exclusive world where demo day access is invite-only for the insiders. In the world there are only 400 handpicked guests attended the last in-person event. It was purely an insider event. You have to be an insider to get access to the best deals. And I'm on of the 400 investors who's on that list. This is why I love YC so much: Statistically 6% of these startups will become unicorns. Making them the best asset class you could ever invest your money into. But, it's almost impossible to gain access to them…. You can get access through me, and that's as close to those YC start-ups as you could ever get.

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The venture apocalypse is upon us. Only two funds raised 44% of the venture money in the US in 2024. The cash amounts deployed against emerging managers (firms with less than three funds) relative to more established firms dropped from 19% in the 2010 to 2020 periode to 16% and falling. Lux Capital's predictions of 30-50% of emerging managers ceasing to exist over the next couple of years are over-shadowed only by claims of an outright extinction of venture capital. This post explores the bigger context and why such developments are short term healthy and long term risky for a nascent startup ecosystem: https://lnkd.in/d-fsYg6b

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Autonomous Vehicle (AV) funding is surging, according to PitchBook with Q2 2024 seeing $2.9 billion invested in AV startups - the highest since Q3 2021. While self-driving cars grab headlines, innovative startups are finding unique applications beyond passenger vehicles. Key developments: - Supply chain optimization: Outrider is revolutionizing yard operations with autonomous electric vehicles, addressing a $60 billion market. - Specialized transport: Pyka's autonomous planes for cargo and Gatik's local distribution trucks are gaining traction. - Safety & efficiency: Evitado Technologies automates airside operations, mitigating airport collision risks. Of course, more established companies such as Lyft & Uber are working on AV rideshare integration via partnerships with Waymo, BYD, Zoox, and others. The AV sector is focusing on gradual integration and specific use cases. While concerns about job displacement exist, proponents argue that automation could shift human capital to higher-value roles. What those roles are remains to be seen. As the AV landscape evolves, it's clear that the future of transportation extends far beyond just self-driving cars on city streets. Check out the full article by Nadine Manske here: https://lnkd.in/g3HJXZHc? And access the PitchBook Mobility Tech Report here: https://lnkd.in/g4_xP5pr #VentureCapital #AutonomousDriving #FrontierTech #FutureMobility

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166 intros requested from my Pre-Seed Deal Flow call, intros going out today VCs, FOs, Angels, and CVCs requesting meetings with startups in everything from aerospace to agtech, legal tech to AI. And every single one of the 7 companies I included from my public experiment got intro requests. If you want to join the next call (Number 57, happening 6/26), shoot me an email at mike@mikemaccombie.com, with the *exact title*: "Deal Flow Call 57" Please including what kind of context you are investing from (angel, fund, FO, CVC, etc)

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👀 Looking at our recent investments at Draper Associates, here’s what standout founders nailed, making our decision to invest much easier (and faster): 💥 Visionary Tech with a Bold Vision – These founders are not here for incremental wins; they’re reimagining what’s possible in across tech - biotech, robotics, aerospace, and beyond. Their vision is big and audacious, tackling complex problems that demand breakthrough solutions, others have not been willing to try. 👊 Clear Passion & Purpose – The drive in these founders is undeniable. They’re committed to their mission with a depth of purpose that shapes every choice. One founder, for example, took two years completely off to learn and meet everyone in longevity biotech. This level of grit and dedication is rare but essential for the most impactful founders. 🌟 Assembling All-Star Teams – They bring together top-tier talent from diverse disciplines: experienced business leaders with successful exits or industry experience at top companies, technical co-founders with deep expertise, often PhDs or industry pioneers, and even published authors. It’s a complementary team, unified by a shared vision. They make the: "Why this team?" obvious - at a glance. 💻 Data-Driven to the Core – These founders present data insights that show why their approach is unique, especially against a competitive field of companies. This data is delivered with clarity and they make the complex simple. Many are published in top journals, adding depth and credibility to their approach, and reinforcing that they know their tech inside out. ⚡️ Memorable, Clear Vision – They don’t just pitch; they make the future feel tangible, with a vision that’s both compelling and concise. If I can relay their pitch in under 30 seconds to my team, they’ve killed it. 📣 Transparent & Proactive Communication – The best founders don’t wait for questions. They come prepared, often with a comprehensive FAQ doc, give timely updates to our questions, and are candid about challenges. This level of openness builds trust and strengthens our partnership. 💸 Milestone-Driven Funding Strategy – Each funding stage aligns clearly with already achieved or upcoming achievable milestones. They’ve mapped out a roadmap that minimizes risk at every step, giving us confidence in their journey. 💰 Revenue Milestones Along the Way – Even if it'll take a decade to hit revenue on their big vision, these founders find revenue generation stops along the way to profitability. They share a trajectory that connects early wins to revenue, showing how every step is a building block toward their bigger vision. Overall, the best founders are incredibly thoughtful, prepared, and fantastic verbal / written communicators. #founders #startups #fundraising #VC

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I want to share a great interview on the Real Vision platform. Their Global Macro series allows laymen such as myself to quickly grasp how macro factors are driving underlying market sentiment. What really stood out for me was part of the conversation around populism, its impact on markets and how that should drive investment principles over the next decade. Populism is contextualized as a political and economic movement driven by widespread public dissatisfaction with the status quo, particularly among the middle and lower classes. This dissatisfaction has been building over decades, driven by rising inequality, stagnant wages, and a perception that the economic system disproportionately benefits the wealthy elite. This in turn has led to significant shifts in the political landscape, with both the right and the left adopting more populist policies. This alignment of both sides towards populist economic policies reflects a broader shift in political dynamics. This aligned political outlook has driven expansive fiscal policies, such as increased government spending and stimulus measures. It also points to a rise in protectionism and de-globalization as populist governments seek to prioritize domestic industries and jobs over global trade. This spending can drive inflation, especially when combined with supply chain constraints and labor shortages. The argument presented is that while these policies might provide short-term relief to the middle and lower classes, they do not address the root causes of inequality and may lead to further economic imbalances. And here's the kicker...….. Historical Parallel: 1968-1982 was another era marked by high inflation, political unrest, and economic volatility, during which time real returns on equities and bonds were significantly negative. Are we in a similar period, where populist policies could lead to long-term market underperformance, particularly for traditional 60/40 portfolios? But then how do we account for S&P being up 21% in 2024? The thesis here revolves around how populist policies tend to lead to increased fiscal and monetary stimulus during election years. It cites historical data showing that, despite overall poor market performance during populist cycles, election years often see strong market returns due to government efforts to stimulate the economy and secure votes. This creates a short-term bullish environment within a broader bearish cycle. These bouts of populist policies rarely die out quickly and the expectation is that we are somewhere in year 4 of a decade long cycle. And my key take away - rely less on passive investments and start to focus increasingly on active investment strategies and, in my personal opinion, bitcoin!! Perhaps think of cycling out some part of the portfolio from ETFs and Mutual Funds into actively managed mandates?? Have a great week ahead. #GlobalMacro #MarketSentiment #Populism #WealthManagement #MonetaryPolicy

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Today I’m thrilled to announce Pictorus (pictor.us) has closed a $3.5M seed financing round, led by Catapult Ventures. Full announcement here: https://lnkd.in/dxe-7-5M After a year in stealth and nearly the same in Beta, we’re excited to use this latest funding to bring Pictorus to the aerospace, automotive, and robotic markets with a formal release later this year. The problem we’re solving is simple: Developing software for hardware is still way too hard. Most hardware startups we’ve encountered end up rebuilding the same core tools and infrastructure over and over again… some combination of makeshift Python scripts, hacky sims and visualizations, and some kludgy infra code.. all cobbled together to design, deploy, and debug the software running on each vehicle. It’s a mess, but it is today’s developer experience. In large part, this is because the engineering tools we all learned back at university (Matlab & Simulink) just don’t cut it for what we need to build and deploy today. And unless Elon is footing the bill, internal engineering tools are really inefficient to develop in-house; both in engineering hours sunk, and avoidable mistakes repeated. Engineers need better workflows for bringing new hardware to life - and at the scale and pace of modern, globally distributed fleets. Meanwhile, large, established aerospace and automotive teams feel trapped by the old Matlab/Simulink toolchain they committed to over 30 years ago, to the tune of tens of millions of dollars annually (each). At Pictorus, we’ve built a solution for this entire spectrum of experience - from scrappy aerospace startups looking to bootstrap their first hardware product, to large automotive OEMs looking to port their legacy Simulink code into Rust. “From the moment I saw what Pictorus had built, I knew this was the future of embedded systems programming. I’ve spent too much time banging my head on my keyboard debugging C/C++ or Matlab/Simulink while squinting at a screen hunched over a car, airplane, drone, or tractor.” says Darren Liccardo, General Partner at Catapult Ventures. “The aerospace industry is rapidly innovating, yet it lacks the flexible tools to quickly program and iterate,” Marlinspike Co-Founder Mislav Tolusic adds. “Pictorus can fill that gap.” I want to give a big shout out to the investors backing us this round, starting with our original partners at Lux Capital and Webb Investment Network, and introducing our latest partners at Marlinspike, Friends & Family Capital, RedBlue Capital, and Never Lift. We’ve assembled a team with deep connections across the industries most excited about our product, and are eager to accelerate our progress with their partnership. Finally, we’re doubling our core team, across engineering and GTM, so do reach out if this mission resonates with your aspirations!

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