Tyler Herbert

Appraisers in the U.S. need better tools that allow them to use more judgement in valuing assets. My colleague Willem Vlaming has been developing work showing that in parts of the world with low market liquidity and few comparable sales, that appraisal teams have been better able to capture the decline in asset values. http://ms.spr.ly/6040Yw5ts MSCI Real Assets #CRE

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Discover key insights from PRISM 2024! Manus Clancy outlines five reasons for optimism in the commercial real estate market. Learn more: https://lnkd.in/eN5P-6cP #LightBoxRE #PRISMPerspectives #PRISM24 #CRE #CommercialRealEstate

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Our President and CEO, Hessam Nadji, was recently featured in Bloomberg News, where he shared insights into why 2025 is shaping up to be a pivotal year for commercial real estate. From investors navigating the balance between uncertainty and fear of missing out to retail real estate emerging as a top investment alternative, Hessam breaks down the trends driving optimism in the CRE market. Key highlights include: - Lender liquidity and access to debt capital - How tax policy in 2025 could benefit CRE investment Watch now for the trends shaping the investment outlook and why the year ahead holds significant promise for the industry: https://lnkd.in/gRnnF5M3 #cre #commercialrealestate #retail

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How will the upcoming election impact the real estate market in the Washington, DC area? It’s no secret that the Washington, DC market tends to experience some turbulence in the lead-up to a presidential election. The uncertainty surrounding the outcome often leads to a slowdown, with many buyers and sellers pressing pause until things stabilize. Historically, the market gains momentum post-election and into the following year. Given the federal government’s deep ties to the area—through spending, employment, and contracting—the outcome of an election can significantly influence the local economy. New policies and shifting priorities from an incoming administration can impact the confidence of buyers and sellers, making them more cautious about big financial moves, like purchasing a home. In the past few weeks, we’ve started to notice signs of this election-year trend. Some highly desirable properties, which would typically move quickly, are staying on the market longer than expected. While it’s too soon to say for sure without October data, the pattern aligns with the usual pre-election hesitation. Curious about how this might affect your personal real estate plans? Learn more on my website: https://lnkd.in/e7NfaWUq #WashingtonDCRealEstate #ElectionYearTrends #HousingMarketInsights

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Commercial real estate seems to be turning a corner globally. There are still storm clouds out there, and holes in the capital stack that need to be patched for some assets. But the rapid decline in deal volume and pricing came to a halt in the second quarter of 2024. MSCI Real Assets #CRE

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Different angle on the property market and also extremely interesting...some optimistic perspectives and some insightful global outlooks. After Vail Resorts investing in Switzerland, KKR is in talks to buy a European hospitality company, from a large global sovereign wealth fund...definitely worth the read... #investment #realestate #property #hospitality

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TPG and PAG took over Cushman & Wakefield in May 2015 when DTZ, the UK-based real estate services firm the venture acquired in 2014, merged with C&W in a $2B deal. The Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan was also invested in the joint venture, but the pension fund is holding on to its shares in C&W. The merger created a combined company with 250 offices in 50 countries. It went public three years later in August 2018, raising $765M at a valuation of around $3.1B. Cushman & Wakefield has a $2.6B market capitalization, based on Friday’s closing price of $11.72. The stock is down around 38% from when it first went public, but it is up 7.6% year to date and has seen a 20% rally in the last month. Shares were down around 2% early Monday.

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I believe we are close if not at capitulation. Financial capitulation is illustrated through several significant events. The Resolution Trust Corporation (RTC) handled the aftermath of the Savings and Loan crisis from 1989 to 1995, resolving $394 billion in assets after massive sell-offs. The Dot-Com Bubble burst between 2000 and 2002, leading to a 78% drop in the NASDAQ Composite index and wiping out trillions in market value as internet companies went bankrupt. The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) from 2007 to 2009, marked by the collapse of Lehman Brothers, saw stock markets plummet by over 50%, prompting substantial government and central bank interventions. Lastly, the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020 triggered a rapid market sell-off, with major indices plunging, which was mitigated by unprecedented fiscal and monetary responses. These events highlight the extreme market reactions and subsequent recoveries following periods of financial distress.

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EQT Exeter Expands Footprint in Suburban Boston. A California-based real estate investment firm with a national portfolio of light industrial real estate, sold a pair of distribution centers in Taunton, Massachusetts, to EQT Exeter, the industrial real estate firm formed two years ago through the acquisition of Exeter Property Group by Swedish investment manager EQT AB. The two buildings traded for $37.35 million, or approximately $202.45 per square foot. The assets involved in the sale are located in the Myles Standish Industrial Park and were reported to be fully leased at the time of closing. They include 385 Myles Standish Blvd., 141,990-square-foot manufacturing facility that was recently leased by WorldPac, a wholesale distributor of automotive parts. It sold for an allocated $30.46 million. The other building at 295 Constitution Dr., is listed as a 42,500-square-foot warehouse and sold for an aggregated $6.89 million. https://lnkd.in/g_zRm8b7 #industrialreaalestate #propertyinvestment #realestateinvestment #realestatefirm #warehouse #milliondollarlisting #industrialbuilding

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Freddie Mac's latest midyear outlook forecasts muted growth for the multifamily sector in 2024, with high supply and slow rent growth posing challenges. Despite a healthy economy, the vacancy rate is set to rise, and rent growth is expected to be just 2.7%. This tempered performance is a result of record-high new unit supply and economic volatility. However, long-term prospects remain strong due to housing shortages, high for-sale housing costs, and favorable demographics. Secondary and tertiary markets, particularly in the Sun Belt and southern plains, are likely to see more robust growth. https://lnkd.in/dUYcUevi Website: https://londonmoeder.com/ Facebook: https://lnkd.in/d7-qmPKb LinkedIn: https://lnkd.in/dsKSa7am TikTok: https://lnkd.in/dMJuxejJ Youtube: https://lnkd.in/d2rGGnCy #commercialrealestate #commercialproperty #CommercialLand #commerciallandforsale #warehousespace #officespace #flexspace #industrialspace #sandiegocommercialrealestate #sandiegorealestate #realestate #cre #realtor #realestateagent #realestateinvesting #property #commercial #commercialproperty #realestateinvestor #business #investment #propertymanagement #investmentproperty #residentialrealestate #forsale #retail #entrepreneur #construction #officespace #realestatebrokerage #housingshortage #housing #housingelements #housingmarket #housingcrisis #orangecountyrealestate #orangecounty #orangecountyhomes #latimes #lahousing #losangeleshousing #housingresearch

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The CMBS market has made a remarkable comeback in the first five months of 2024, with U.S. private-label CMBS issuance skyrocketing to $32.2 billion, up from $13 billion during the same period in 2023. This resurgence highlights the critical role of CMBS in commercial real estate (CRE) lending, now accounting for 14% of all U.S. CRE lending. Despite rising defaults, CMBS is effectively bridging the liquidity gap left by commercial banks. Major players like Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Blackstone are driving this growth, leveraging their substantial balance sheets to meet the increasing demand for securitized loans. With narrowing spreads and a favorable interest rate environment, CMBS continues to be a crucial source of capital for CRE borrowers and investors, offering a reliable alternative in a challenging market landscape. As the market adapts to changing economic conditions, CMBS stands out as a resilient and indispensable component of the CRE financing ecosystem. #CMBS #RealEstate #Finance #CRE #Investment #MarketTrends #EconomicRecovery #CapitalMarkets #CommercialRealEstate https://lnkd.in/eNYvb9Xv

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Family offices are making waves in the CRE capital markets! This article by Brian Pascus gives the most thorough snapshot of the recent and current activity of family offices in CRE. I strongly urge my network to read the entirety of the article which includes contributions from a fantastic group of experts. “Every time the market is bottoming out, it would appear to be the most opportune time to buy, and the buying wave is always started by high-net-worth individuals and families,” said Bob Knakal. “What we’re seeing today is that the investment wave is, yet again, being led by high-net-worth families.” Since March of 2022 (the start of interest rate hikes), the majority of my team's deals have been bought by family offices with either 100% cash or bank financing from a bank where they have deposits. #InvestmentSales, #CapitalMarkets, #CommercialRealEstate, #CRE, #RealEstateInvestment; Brian C. Adams, Kevin Aussef, Zach Redding, Nicco Lupo, David Perlman, Jay Neveloff, Dan Berman, Ran Eliasaf, Richard Byrne https://lnkd.in/egMJRSc3

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Banyan Street Capital has acquired 1250 H Street, a 196,490-square-foot, Class A office building in Washington, D.C. The aqcuisition marks the first office acquisition for Banyan’s platform that leverages domestic global high net worth and family offices at a time when many of their traditional institutional office partners remain on the sidelines. Cushman & Wakefield, Philip A. Dickinson, John M. Benziger, Christopher Getz #cre #office

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The value of distressed assets in the #CRE marketplace continued to grow in the U.S. into Q3'24. Still, the ramp up is not as rapid as that seen following the GFC as there are different forces at play in the current market. Read more about the source of distress and a chart on comparisons to the GFC by my colleague Alexis Maltin here: http://ms.spr.ly/6049WR4GN MSCI Real Assets

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🔍 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗜𝗻𝗱𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘆 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘀 📊 Here are a few trends that caught my eye: 𝗠&𝗔 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗔𝗰𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗶𝘁𝘆 -𝘈𝘤𝘤𝘦𝘭𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘪𝘯 𝘔&𝘈: Hodes Weill reports that real estate and infrastructure M&A surged 50% in 1H 2024 vs. 2H 2023, with managers continuing to pursue strategic acquisitions to access distribution and investment capital. https://lnkd.in/gitiwvMA -𝘈𝘴𝘴𝘦𝘵 𝘔𝘢𝘯𝘢𝘨𝘦𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘊𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘰𝘭𝘪𝘥𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯: BNP Paribas’ potential €5.1bn acquisition of Axa’s asset management arm would create one of Europe’s largest asset managers, and one of the largest real estate managers in the world with more than €100bn of RE AuM. https://lnkd.in/gXpzFkW7 𝗚𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵 𝗶𝗻 𝗔𝗣𝗔𝗖 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗗𝗶𝗴𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗹 𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀 -𝘎𝘳𝘰𝘸𝘵𝘩 𝘪𝘯 𝘈𝘗𝘈𝘊 𝘛𝘳𝘢𝘯𝘴𝘢𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘝𝘰𝘭𝘶𝘮𝘦𝘴: JLL’s Q2 2024 Capital Tracker shows APAC investment volumes reached USD 57bn in H1 (up 7% vs. the same period a year ago), led by Japan and Australia in the office, retail, and hotel sectors. https://lnkd.in/gCmSGsfC -𝘚𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘨𝘪𝘤 𝘋𝘪𝘨𝘪𝘵𝘢𝘭 𝘐𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘴: Centuria’s move into liquid immersion cooled data centres, which fit within existing office floorplates, generate significantly higher rental income vs. typical office occupiers, while being more sustainable and energy-efficient, reducing cooling costs, capex, and carbon footprint. https://lnkd.in/gSqqdeNJ 𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝗳𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗰 𝗧𝗶𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴 -𝘊𝘰𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘴𝘦, 𝘋𝘢𝘵𝘢-𝘋𝘳𝘪𝘷𝘦𝘯 𝘙𝘦𝘱𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘴: Coalition Greenwich finds institutional investors prefer brief, data-rich reports, ideally under five pages, highlighting the need for clear, impactful communication. https://lnkd.in/gKzc9aKN -𝘙𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭𝘦 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘖𝘱𝘦𝘯-𝘌𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘥 𝘙𝘦𝘢𝘭 𝘌𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘦: Mercer suggests now may be a strategic moment to re-enter open-ended real estate funds, as property value corrections have historically set the stage for periods of outsized returns. https://lnkd.in/gCuZZzYJ 𝗟𝗲𝗮𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗽 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀 -𝘎𝘭𝘰𝘣𝘢𝘭 𝘗𝘳𝘰𝘮𝘰𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘴: Hines announced several key promotions to support its global real estate platform. Notable changes include Steve Luthman leading global real estate services, Ray Lawler taking over the Americas, and Jon Tanaka overseeing the Asia Pacific region. https://lnkd.in/g5tqpnMF

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Office Market’s Hidden Strength Part 2: We asked Colliers' NYC research team, led by Frank Wallach, to develop a historical analysis of the market from 2000-2Q24. We sought an equalized comparison, and it happens that the past quarter-century is an excellent reference point. It has eras of boom and bust: the Dotcom collapse; 9/11; the Great Recession; and their bullish recoveries; and then massive technology growth leading to what is known as the 4th Industrial Revolution. Upon review of Manhattan’s office availability rates from 2000, we find that the average annual percentage is 12%*.  We define availability as space able to be possessed within the following 12 months; and it includes direct space as well as sublet space. It covers all submarkets within the Manhattan office market CBD. Today’s total availability is 18%. When compared to the 12% annual average, one can readily conclude that this significant 6% delta is reason enough to expect a very troubled market. However, we have taken a novel tack: first we “removed” all sublet space with fewer than three years remaining—our theory being that this cohort does not compete with either direct space or long-term sublets (despite the potential to extend the short-term sublets on a direct basis). That lowered the rate from 18% to 17%. We then eliminated all properties rumored to be residential conversion candidates. Our notion here being that whether a property had committed to convert, a tenant would withhold serious interest until a commitment were made. The 17% became 16.6%. Next, we looked at all properties in Special Servicing. The removal of that 8M SF dropped the availability rate to 15%. We should note that buildings in Special Servicing—or on the watch list—are not necessarily withdrawn from the market, or unleasable. But most prospective tenants view them as questionable until such time as their status is resolved. So, for practical purposes we deem them currently unavailable. Finally, we examined the “trophy property” marketplace. We don’t need to define trophy here, but suffice it to say, “you know them when you see them”. Beyond their obvious cachet, these buildings also carry asking rents well into the triple digits. They don’t disappear from the available space list, but the vast preponderance of tenants are not candidates for this grouping, which totals 10M SF and further reduces realistic availability to 13%--very close to the quarter-century average. Then, where is the deep market softness that spawns the grim outlook? *Downtown availability rate is 20% *Manhattan Class B availability is 20% Somewhat surprisingly, the class C rate is 15%, which we attribute to a demand for affordable space, irrespective of its lack of high quality. In sum, the Manhattan office space market is far from homogeneous. Regardless of the alarming headlines, there remains a strength that is obscured. As with much in life, things are not always what they seem.   *Rounded %'s ©2024 Robert T. Tunis

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