Southern Finance 南方财经全媒体’s Post

“There are high levels of complementarity between the Australian and the Chinese economy. But there is no question that the Australian prosperity relies on the prosperity and the growth of the Chinese economy. The traditional areas remain important, now that's the export of things like iron or and agricultural products. But new areas of cooperation, new areas of investment development include green energy, the digital economy and climate related developments. In these areas, China is a leader.” Daryl Guppy, Former Member of the Australia China Business Council (ACBC), Australian Representative of the Silk Road Chamber of International Commerce (SRCIC), told us in an exclusive interview. China and Australia have particularly close economic and trade ties and have gradually developed a mutually beneficial and win-win economic and trade relationship. Currently, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) has entered its third year of implementation, and under the RCEP mechanism and framework, China-Australia bilateral trade is playing an increasingly important role. “Now recently, there have been some what we would call behind the border barriers that go against the spirit of chapter. That includes some changes to Australia’s Foreign Investment Review Board, and the way that is treating investment proposals from China differently from the way the proposals from the United Kingdom, the United States are treated. So there is room for some revisioning, the terms of chapter and some improvement of that. RCEP provides many opportunities for China and Australia regulation and cooperation.” Guppy added. Read: https://lnkd.in/gd2763f2

🎉 Amidst the evolving dynamics of Sino-US relations, an increasing number of Chinese companies are setting their sights on Europe, seeking investment opportunities. 💼 Among these, France shines as the preferred destination, boasting friendly trade policies, a colossal market, and a well-established economic framework. #ChinaEUInvestment #FranceInFocus https://lnkd.in/gVteAuMf

EY Greater China region releases the 11th issue of China Go Abroad – Cross the millennia-old trade route New perspectives on Arab investment Against the backdrop of a rapidly evolving international landscape, China-Arab relations have ushered in a new era. Both sides are emphasizing economic development based on mutual benefit and innovation, creating vast opportunities for collaboration. In the future, China and the League of Arab States (LAS) will continue to leverage platforms such as the China-Arab States Cooperation Forum and the China-Arab States Summit to strengthen their strategic partnership, accelerate cooperation in sectors such as finance, energy, infrastructure development and consumer goods, and work together to advance a more inclusive and equitable multilateral framework on a global scale. Read more: https://lnkd.in/gYXtk8nP   安永大中华区发布第十一期《中国走出去》系列报告﹕《跨越千年商道：阿拉伯投资新视角》。在国际格局日益复杂的背景下，中国和阿拉伯国家联盟关系迈向新纪元，双方聚焦经济发展，以互惠互利为核心，以创新驱动为动力，拓展了前所未有的合作空间。未来，中阿将继续依托“中阿合作论坛”及“中国—阿拉伯国家峰会”等平台，进一步提升战略伙伴关系，加快金融、能源、基础设施建设和消费品等领域合作，共同推进平等有序、普惠包容的多边新格局。阅读更多：https://lnkd.in/gP3sfv3f

Ministry of Commerce: China's new energy production capacity has effectively promoted global green transformation and open development Summary: The Ministry of Commerce in China dismisses the accusations of overcapacity in the new energy industry and emphasizes the positive global impact of China's production capacity. They explain the necessity of viewing production capacity objectively and promoting open competition for sustainable development. China's new energy industry advantages are forged through technological innovation, an efficient production and supply chain, and market optimization. The article refutes claims of industrial subsidies leading to overcapacity and highlights China's compliance with WTO rules. China aims to deepen cooperation in the new energy production and supply chain, promoting technological innovation and global climate change response for common development and a shared future for mankind. # #China Follow us for daily updates on risk and operations in Asia! https://lnkd.in/ds_U7Mzf

Hard Competition Between Europe and Asia Διάβασε ελληνικά εδώ: https://lnkd.in/dSpdgw_W China continues to strengthen its economic cooperation with members of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), confirming the strategic importance of the region in the global economic landscape. In 2023, China’s trade volume with other APEC members reached $3.5 trillion, representing 59% of the country’s total trade volume. Additionally, nine out of China’s ten largest trading partners are APEC members, highlighting the organization’s critical role in shaping the country’s trade flows. At the same time, the APEC region plays a vital role in attracting and allocating investments. In 2023, 81.8% of foreign investments in China came from APEC members, while 80.2% of Chinese outbound direct investment (FDI) also targeted these countries. These figures underscore the strong economic interconnection that has developed in the Asia-Pacific region and its decisive influence on China’s economic growth. The deepening of China’s relations with APEC poses both challenges and opportunities for Europe. The strengthening of China’s economic influence in the Asia-Pacific may reduce Europe’s significance as a trade and investment partner for China, as Chinese resources and strategies increasingly focus on the APEC region. Additionally, the dynamic growth in the Asia-Pacific enhances competition in markets that have traditionally been more accessible to European businesses. On the other hand, Europe can leverage closer cooperation with China through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which links the Asia-Pacific region with Europe. Moreover, European businesses can utilize Chinese investments to penetrate APEC markets through joint initiatives. However, it is crucial to maintain robust monitoring mechanisms to ensure transparency and balance in trade relations. Greece, with its strategic geographic position and participation in the Belt and Road Initiative, is uniquely positioned to benefit from China’s outward orientation. The collaboration at the Port of Piraeus is a prime example of the influence of Chinese investments, strengthening Greece’s role as a hub connecting Europe and Asia. However, China’s increasing focus on APEC markets may lead to a reduction in Chinese investments in Europe, limiting future opportunities for the development of projects such as those in infrastructure or energy. To address this challenge, Greece must strengthen its bilateral relations with China, leveraging its participation in the 17+1 Initiative and promoting the country as a gateway to Europe. China’s increased economic interconnection with APEC is reshaping the global economic balance, with significant consequences for Europe and Greece. Although these changes carry risks, they also present new opportunities for economic collaboration. https://lnkd.in/d7upwrp4

China’s Overcapacity and Economic Malaise   #China’s recent economic woes have made headlines covering everything from #realestate to #debt, but Janet Yellen’s recent visit to China and her focus on China’s overcapacity and its tie-in with tariffs has captured headlines.   I was delighted to be interviewed by Voice of America's Bo Gu on this latest development in Sino-#American rivalry and Industrial Policy.   China’s # export-oriented economy not only usually has an incentive to export, but even if there was an incentive to decrease exports, #Chinese State Owned Enterprises, local #government, and much of the over-leveraged private sector have every incentive to maintain full speed ahead.   The result? Two parallel problems: 1) A collective action problem (ironic given that Command Economies of many types argue they have few difficulties with collective action problems) and 2) A free rider problem with everyone hoping somebody else pulls back.   For more details, and how this is likely to end, please see my latest in Voice of America.   https://lnkd.in/eMG_Z32z

“The Belt and Road Initiative has achieved immense amount of success. Since its inception, it has been very important for Africa where it can find its own space and a productive role within the Belt and Road initiative. It allows Africa to fit into the Chinese economy and also benefit from the demand within China.” Tshepiso Malele, Country Head of Brand South Africa in China, said to us during an exclusive interview while attending the Global Trade and Investment Promotion Summit 2024.   South Africa is the first African country to sign a cooperation document with China within the Belt and Road Initiative framework. The China-South Africa comprehensive cooperation has emerged as a testament to the success of the Belt and Road Initiative, effectively bridging African development aspirations with the enhancement of South-South cooperation. In 2023, the bilateral trade between China and South Africa had reached $55.62 billion, accounting for about one fifth of the total China-Africa trade.   Malele noted that, "The growth of Chinese economy has been slowing down, but it is still and will continue to be positive." He further pointed out that over the last few years, Chinese companies continue to actively invest in South Africa as they see opportunities that lie within the market of South Africa. Read: https://lnkd.in/g_YFscpX

I'm excited to share my latest commentary published in China Times (中国时报) on the impact of Donald Trump's return to the White House on U.S.-China relations. With Trump’s decisive win in the 2024 election, we are likely entering an era of intensified strategic competition between the U.S. and China. Here are some of the key takeaways from the piece: 1. A Shift in Competitive Focus: Unlike Biden’s approach of "managing competition," Trump and his team aim to “win the competition,” likely adopting a more confrontational stance toward China. This shift could particularly affect the “3Ts” – trade, technology, and Taiwan – exacerbating tensions in these areas. 2. Trade Frictions: Trump's proposed 60% tariff on all Chinese goods signals a push for economic “decoupling.” Such measures will likely heighten trade friction and impact global supply chains, complicating economic stability between the two countries. 3. Tech Restrictions: The Trump administration's strategy is expected to move from “small-yard, high-fence” to a more extensive blockade on Chinese access to key technologies like semiconductors, AI, and quantum computing. Unilateral tech restrictions may strain China-U.S. tech cooperation and intensify global tech rivalries. 4. Taiwan Tensions: With a more transactional view on Taiwan, Trump’s team may advocate for increased military sales and stronger U.S.-Taiwan ties. Such moves could add risk to cross-strait relations and impact regional stability. 5. Limits on People-to-People Exchanges: Restrictions on academic and cultural exchanges may increase, affecting the critical people-to-people foundation of U.S.-China relations and furthering “decoupling” at the societal level. In this complex landscape, China will need to remain calm and flexible in its response, preserving communication channels to minimize misjudgments. Multi-layered diplomacy, including local and non-governmental engagement, will be crucial to navigating the next phase of U.S.-China relations. For more, read the full article here:

I’m cited in Voice of America’s Chinese edition alongside my Selling to China co-author Bryce Whitwam: Bill Russo, founder of Automobility Ltd in Shanghai, believes that China's goal of promoting the "unified large market" is to pave the way for economic transformation by eliminating the existing cronyism and overinvestment and other disadvantages to build a more competitive market economy system. This initiative aims to move China's economy towards a healthier and more sustainable future development path. Mr. Russo told Voice of America: "I think this is intended to restart (China's) market structure concept, that is, China is no longer a growth economy, but gradually enters the stage of a mature economy, but the problem is that this transformation process will be very difficult." He said that China's economy can no longer be driven only by local governments selling land or real estate investment, but must let the market dominate. In other words, enterprises must be competitive to survive, and can no longer be parasitized under "nepotism capitalism". At present, the problems of overinvestment, overcapacity and excessive internal volume of enterprises are also transformed by effectively solving the problem in order for China's economy to develop more soundly in the future. However, he predicted that the transformation process of China's economy is time-consuming and full of pain, and many industries are also afraid of "bubble bursting". Beijing must take action to engineer an a adjustment.