Clarence Gu’s Post

🔥 New ChinAffairs+ Issue: Mearsheimer vs. Yan Xuetong - Debating the Future of Global Order and China-U.S. Relations 🔥 In our latest edition, we delve into a thought-provoking discussion held on October 11, 2024, between John Mearsheimer, leading realist scholar, and Yan Xuetong, Dean of Tsinghua’s Institute of International Relations. This marks their third debate, following previous talks in 2013 and 2019. Mearsheimer reaffirmed his theory of "offensive realism," emphasizing that in a world without a supreme authority, nations seek regional dominance to ensure survival. He highlighted the ongoing and intensifying security competition between China and the U.S., with a particular focus on cutting-edge technology. On the other hand, Yan Xuetong argued that the core of U.S.-China competition lies in who can better shape the global order, particularly in a world trending towards anti-globalization, rather than a fight for mere survival. Don't miss the insights from this high-level debate and how it shapes perspectives on the future of global order! https://lnkd.in/gD33Q3BX

A New Cold War?: Congressional Rhetoric and Regional Reactions to the U.S.-China Rivalry Center for Strategic & International Studies 16 Sept 2024 The Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab (SNAPL) and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) cordially invite you to attend a symposium on A New Cold War?: Congressional Rhetoric and Regional Reactions to the U.S.-China Rivalry. This symposium will present fresh insights into pressing geopolitical issues of our time by exploring evidence from a large-scale, comparative computational analysis of Congressional discourse on U.S. rivals challenging the notion of a new Cold War between the United States and China. Scholars and experts will also examine how U.S.-China tensions impact attitudes toward China among citizens of U.S. allies within the Asia-Pacific region, based on extensive survey data covering multiple Asia-Pacific countries. 

"For his ambassador to China, Trump has picked David Perdue, who was a senator from Georgia from 2015 to 2021. Perdue is a competent guy who did business in East Asia before going to the Senate. But in a September 2024 essay in The Washington Examiner, he wrote of the Chinese Communist Party, “Through all my activity in China and the region, one thing became painfully clear: The C.C.P. firmly believes its rightful destiny is to reclaim its historical position as the hegemon of the world order — and convert the world to Marxism.” "Hmmm. I would not dispute the hegemon stuff, but “convert the world to Marxism”? Before he takes up his post, I hope Perdue will get briefed to understand that China today has a lot more Muskists — young people who want to be like Elon Musk — than Marxists. The Chinese are trying to beat us at our game, capitalism, not convert us to Marxism." One way China is trying to beat us at our own game is by systematically obtaining intellectual property rights in America. And the USPTO, America's Innovation Agency, is aiding and abetting this behavior by hastily issuing lightly examined patent applications for watchlisted Chinese entities, including ones covering sanctioned technologies. https://lnkd.in/gXF5KziZ The New York Times, Thomas Friedman, USPTO, #China, #IP, #patent, #AI, #tech, #natsec

🔥 New ChinAffairs+ Issue: Mearsheimer vs. Yan Xuetong - Debating the Future of Global Order and China-U.S. Relations 🔥 In our latest edition, we delve into a thought-provoking discussion held on October 11, 2024, between John Mearsheimer, leading realist scholar, and Yan Xuetong, Dean of Tsinghua’s Institute of International Relations. This marks their third debate, following previous talks in 2013 and 2019. Mearsheimer reaffirmed his theory of "offensive realism," emphasizing that in a world without a supreme authority, nations seek regional dominance to ensure survival. He highlighted the ongoing and intensifying security competition between China and the U.S., with a particular focus on cutting-edge technology. On the other hand, Yan Xuetong argued that the core of U.S.-China competition lies in who can better shape the global order, particularly in a world trending towards anti-globalization, rather than a fight for mere survival. Don't miss the insights from this high-level debate and how it shapes perspectives on the future of global order! https://lnkd.in/gTviei_c

This is a lively and informative discussion which took place at the recent Aspen Ideas Festival reflecting very representative views on the issue of US-China tensions. Andrew Erickson, Associate Professor at the Naval War College and an Associate in Research at Harvard's Fairbank Center, and Matt Pottinger, former US deputy national security advisor under Trump and distinguished visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution, presenting the hawkish US perspective. While David Kaokui Li, the Mansfield Freeman Chair Professor of Economics, Director of Center for China in the World Economy (CCWE) and the founding Dean of the Schwarzman Scholars at Tsinghua University, and Keyu Jin, Associate Professor of Economics at London School of Economics and author of the "China Playbook," representing a global Chinese perspective. Issues discussed include China's global ambitions, the Taiwan issue and the possibilities of US-China war, the Russian-China relationship, Chinese students in US, human rights, the Chinese youth generation, and more. To hear their respective views unfiltered and direct, it's worth listening to this session, including an insightful Q&A session with some very good questions posed. Where do you all come out after listening to this conversation? Are the US government's fears of China's rise justified or are we (the US) creating a potential conflict that doesn't need to happen? https://lnkd.in/g32U_bVg #US-ChinaRelations #aspenideasfestival #KeyuJin #mattpottinger #Taiwan #US-China

Professor Zheng Yongnian, an influential public intellectual and political scientist in the mainland, has weighed in rapidly via his institute’s WeChat blog. Zheng says the mainland must maintain strategic composure and make rational judgments, striving for a plan for peaceful unification. “Even if there is only a one in ten thousand chance of peaceful unification, we must strive for it,” Zheng says in the blog, “resolving the Taiwan issue does not mean, as "Taiwan independence" advocates, the West, or some populists claim, that military means are the only option.” He interprets the attitude of the Taiwanese people, based on Taiwan’s National Chengchi University’s annual public opinion poll, as although they do not seek immediate unification, they also do not wish for independence. Instead, they prefer to maintain the status quo, preserve peace, and avoid conflict. “This attitude deserves our understanding and respect,” he stressed. Sticking with his long-advocated advice for Beijing to push forward unilateral opening-up over a wide range of subjects, Zheng calls for enabling Taiwanese residents to study, work, settle, or travel on the mainland as they wish. He also boldly calls for Beijing to explore restoring the "1992 Consensus" in some form, and then discusses how to resume communication with Lai’s administration. -- From both domestic and international perspectives, four factors are accelerating the "Taiwan independence" trend: 1. Domestic Political Forces: Despite Lai Ching-te receiving only about 40% of the vote, he still dominates the administration, capable of manipulating public opinion to push for "Taiwan independence." 2. Misjudgments within the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP): The DPP naively believes that despite not recognizing the "1992 Consensus" for years, Taiwan has survived due to support from the U.S. and Japan deterring unification efforts by the mainland. 3. Extremist Anti-China Stance in the U.S.: The U.S. is conducting a cognitive war, shaping perceptions of China externally. 4. Populism: Internally in the Chinese mainland, some populist voices suggest that a strong military force can resolve the Taiwan issue once and for all. https://lnkd.in/guGWRhtV

🌍 „Authoritarian states are intensifying their efforts to build alliances“ This is an argument made by Ming Ma, Alexander Libman, Genia Kostka, Daniil Romanov in their new article published in Perspectives on Politics. #PublicationFriday While the authoritarian regionalism literature suggests that membership in these “clubs of autocrats” can bolster domestic support for authoritarian leaders, such external recognition can also pose challenges, especially when aligning with “toxic” authoritarian partners. 🔍 The authors argue that authoritarian regimes attempt to solve this problem by crafting strategic narratives and communicating them through regime-loyal media to the general public. 🔗Read the full article here: https://ogy.de/d1fi #PublicationFriday 📚 #Authoritarianism #GlobalPolitics #PoliticalScience

https://lnkd.in/gRgtMupg A solid discussion of cause and effect in international relations

⚔️ Are We Entering a New Age of Empire? “The strong do as they please, and the weak suffer as they must.” These words, attributed to ancient history, feel eerily relevant today as global power dynamics shift once again. 🌍 In a world where the promise of equality and international cooperation once thrived under the post-WWII order, the resurgence of imperialist strategies by major powers like #Russia, #China, and even the #US raises pressing questions about our global future. We're not just witnessing the erosion of international institutions - we're seeing the emergence of what I call "selective multilateralism." 1️⃣ The myth of a purely rules-based or purely power-based order is dead. Success in this new environment requires understanding both frameworks. 2️⃣ Regional influence is becoming as crucial as global reach. We're seeing the rise of "micro-orders" - regional systems with their own rules and power dynamics. 3️⃣ Middle powers are emerging as critical stabilizers, often serving as bridges between competing spheres of influence. For professionals navigating this landscape, the key isn't choosing sides - it's developing the ability to operate effectively across multiple, sometimes contradictory, international frameworks. Practical Implications, this means: ▪️ Enhanced Risk Assessment: Geopolitical risks are no longer peripheral; they're central to strategic planning. Understand the evolving power dynamics impacting your supply chains and market access. ▪️ Building #Resilience & Diversification: Relying on single sources or markets tied to specific great powers becomes increasingly precarious. Diversification is key. ▪️ Cultivating Strategic #Partnerships: Navigating this complex landscape requires building strong, adaptable relationships across different spheres of influence. Understanding the motivations and constraints of key actors is paramount. ▪️ Focusing on #Adaptability: The old certainties are gone. Agility and the ability to adapt to rapidly changing global dynamics will be crucial for success. 💡 Key Insight   The most successful organizations will be those that can balance adherence to international norms with pragmatic adaptation to power realities. History reminds us that grassroots movements, innovative governance models, and bold leadership can disrupt cycles of domination. The future isn't written—it’s built. ❓ What do you think? Are we doomed to repeat the mistakes of the past, or can we forge a new path toward equity and collaboration? #GlobalLeadership #Geopolitics #FutureOfWork #Equality #Innovation #HistoryRepeats #InternationalRelations #GlobalBusiness #Leadership #GlobalTrade #StrategicThinking #BusinessStrategy #strategy #economics #history #philosophy #futureoftheworld #internationalaffairs #politicalscience 🔗 Source: https://lnkd.in/gQPiB6aw