Alessia Pastori’s Post

“While foreign investors are still adjusting their views, there is growing interest in mainland China and Hong Kong stocks. They pay close attention to recent market performance, changes in investor sentiment, and the appropriate timing to enter the market.” In a recent interview with Hong Kong Economic Times, Ninety One shared its insights into market trends of mainland China and Hong Kong equity market. #China Market# https://lnkd.in/gqCG2PBH

Portfolio Manager Wenchang Ma, CFA, shared her insights on the Chinese equities markets in the Hong Kong Economic Times. She noted that while foreign investors are still in the early stages of adjusting their sentiments, interest in China stocks is on the rise. 🔗 Read the article: https://bit.ly/4fYRATV #ninetyone #china #chinaoutlook #marketoutlook #markets #equities #investment #investing

“There are high levels of complementarity between the Australian and the Chinese economy. But there is no question that the Australian prosperity relies on the prosperity and the growth of the Chinese economy. The traditional areas remain important, now that's the export of things like iron or and agricultural products. But new areas of cooperation, new areas of investment development include green energy, the digital economy and climate related developments. In these areas, China is a leader.” Daryl Guppy, Former Member of the Australia China Business Council (ACBC), Australian Representative of the Silk Road Chamber of International Commerce (SRCIC), told us in an exclusive interview. China and Australia have particularly close economic and trade ties and have gradually developed a mutually beneficial and win-win economic and trade relationship. Currently, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) has entered its third year of implementation, and under the RCEP mechanism and framework, China-Australia bilateral trade is playing an increasingly important role. “Now recently, there have been some what we would call behind the border barriers that go against the spirit of chapter. That includes some changes to Australia’s Foreign Investment Review Board, and the way that is treating investment proposals from China differently from the way the proposals from the United Kingdom, the United States are treated. So there is room for some revisioning, the terms of chapter and some improvement of that. RCEP provides many opportunities for China and Australia regulation and cooperation.” Guppy added. Read: https://lnkd.in/gd2763f2

On July 8, the Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) and Standard Chartered released the Standard Chartered GBA Business Confidence Index (GBAI) for Q2 2024, showing that the "current performance" index for business activity remained largely unchanged at 54.1 in Q2 compared to 54.3 in Q1, and near its highest level since Q2 of 2021. The GBAI "expectations" index rose to 54.8 in Q2 from 54.0 in Q1, marking its first increase in five quarters. Kelvin Lau, Senior Economist for Greater China at Standard Chartered, stated, "The figures remain comfortably above the 50l mark, reflecting sustained expansionary momentum following a solid start to the year." Overall, the GBAI for Q3 2024 is expected to stabilize or even rise slightly. Currently, investors and businesses remain cautious due to concerns about the geopolitical impact of the upcoming US elections.   This business confidence survey also looks at the views of new quality productive forces. Only 11.7% of respondents saw "a very high risk" of overinvestment and potential overcapacity in some of the new industries, while a more substantial 36.7% described this as "only a low risk" while acknowledging that risks exist.   Irina Fan, Hong Kong Trade Development Council Director of Research, said, "A greater role for Hong Kong is expected, particularly in the area of industrial transformation as the country focuses on pushing through the new quality productive forces. We also see room for financing and invest expectations." Read: https://lnkd.in/gaxRiD4w

"Why did the IMF raise China's economic growth rate forecast from 4.6% to 5%? They observered that the central government implementing policies aimed at addressing the real estate downturn this year and gradually relax financial policies," explained Heiwai Tang, director of the Asian Global Institute, told us in an interview. On May 29, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised China's economic growth forecast for 2024 to 5.0% citing robust GDP growth in the first quarter and recent policy measures. Tang believes that Hong Kong will benefit from optimistic economic outlook for China's economy this year. Read:https://lnkd.in/gc2bF2r2

"Considering the expectations for trade and exports in 2025, I think Asia will work hard to stabilize domestic demand, and the supply chain transfer may continue." Sonal Varma, Chief Economist, Asia ex-Japan, Nomura, told us at a media briefing on December 12. Sonal also noted that the upcoming "Trump 2.0" is both an opportunity and a challenge for Southeast Asian countries. On one hand, Trump's trade policy brings great uncertainty, which is not conducive to the growth of Asian trade activities. On the other hand, under this circumstance, some Asian countries may also benefit from the transfer of supply chains. Sonal believes that for many Asian central banks, the current strength of the US dollar is a constraint. In her view, monetary policies in Asia are likely to diverge in the future because export and domestic demand growth of Asia are no longer as resilient as in the past. Therefore, Asian countries should adopt a more flexible approach to manage currency fluctuations on the premise that domestic economic growth and inflation rates are within the target range. Read:https://lnkd.in/gFe57eS3

“With the rebound of China capital markets, international investors are starting to invest back into China, marking the return of the 'animal spirit'(the instinct that guide human economic behavior),” Brian Roberts, Head of Equities Product Development, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX), said at at the Greenwich Economic Forum (Hong Kong). Meanwhile, net northbound capital inflows into mainland market through Stock Connect Schemes exceeded 80 billion yuan in May, up around 100% year-on-year.   On April 20, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced five measures to further enhance the Stock Connect Schemes. The measures include expanding the scope of eligible products for the ETF Connect and incorporating of REITs into the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect.   “These five measures will promote two-way capital flow between capital markets in the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong. Specifically, the expansion of eligible products for stock ETFs under the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect will enable ETF issuers to innovate, thereby bringing out lots of positive market energy. And the inclusion of REITs in the Stock Connect will be able to provide international investors with the access into China’s property market, which is important for the stability of China’s property market.” Brian expressed. Read: https://lnkd.in/g3tXJker

Ministry of Commerce: China's new energy production capacity has effectively promoted global green transformation and open development Summary: The Ministry of Commerce in China dismisses the accusations of overcapacity in the new energy industry and emphasizes the positive global impact of China's production capacity. They explain the necessity of viewing production capacity objectively and promoting open competition for sustainable development. China's new energy industry advantages are forged through technological innovation, an efficient production and supply chain, and market optimization. The article refutes claims of industrial subsidies leading to overcapacity and highlights China's compliance with WTO rules. China aims to deepen cooperation in the new energy production and supply chain, promoting technological innovation and global climate change response for common development and a shared future for mankind. # #China Follow us for daily updates on risk and operations in Asia! https://lnkd.in/ds_U7Mzf

"The more China can demonstrate its differences from the new U.S. administration and send a clear message about its commitment to positive competition, greater openness, and win-win cooperation, the faster the global trade environment can shift away from this dangerous trajectory," said Michele Wucker, winner of the Guggenheim Fellowship and the creator of the "Gray Rhino" concept. She noted that the new U.S. government should recognize the consequences of tariffs, pointing to the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, the highest tariff legislation enacted in U.S. history, which further exacerbated and expanded the Great Depression that began in 1929.   In 2017, the Chinese version of Wucker's book The Gray Rhino: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore was published in China. Shortly afterward, "gray rhino" became a buzzword in Chinese media. Through this concept, she reminds people of highly probable, high-impact threats. Later, Mucker's Chinese version of You Are What You Risk: The New Art and Science of Navigating an Uncertain World came out in China, continuing her exploration of risk management. In the short term, Mucker recommended that Chinese companies deepen their ties with American business partners while actively seeking investment opportunities and commercial relationships with other countries around the world. Additionally, China should expand domestic demand and stimulate consumption, which would also help improve China-U.S. relations. Read: https://lnkd.in/gmdB_Mms

Our Hong Kong and Macau CEO Daisy Tsang spoke to Hong Kong Economic Journal recently on her plans for the rest of the year. Among other things, maintaining the insurer's market leading position is one of them. Read more about the interview here: #HSBCLife