With some of my personal thoughts: Market analysts are guessing that the BoJ may have already conducted a large-scale yen-buying intervention during Monday's yen swing. Their suspicion stems from a 5.5 trillion yen discrepancy between the BoJ's forecast for commercial bank deposits and last week's estimate by money market brokers. If that's the case, the BoJ is likely buying time until the Fed pivots to rate cuts, narrowing the interest rate differential. However, the central bank might need several more interventions to prevent the currency from plumbing new three-decade lows. The fact is, such a massive intervention can only move the rate around 500 pips, and the USDJPY uptrend shows little resistance. It's an extremely costly endeavor. Coupled with the market's waning fear of intervention and the potential resurgence of carry trades after the previous profit-taking, defending the yen could be an uphill battle for the BoJ.
A brief view on USD/JPY in our fx column after the choppy session https://lnkd.in/gfFdaD3V
