Anne Clawson’s Post

China’s recent export ban on critical minerals has demonstrated its more assertive approach to countering US actions amid growing trade tensions. https://bit.ly/3BwoRHo

LOOKS LIKE THE RECENT TARIFF SCARE UNLEASHED IS BEING RESPONDED BY CHINA AS EXPECTED. China has banned export of certain crucial minerals to the US. When it comes to international trade, one-upmanship goes on to become counter productive. It is time for the developed countries to release that the rest of the world has become empowered and does not take things lying down anymore. Negotiations are the only way to steer clear of such trade skirmishes. "In early December 2024, China, the largest miner and refiner of critical raw materials, announced a ban on exports of three minerals – gallium, germanium, and antimony – to the United States, adding a new element to the escalating tech trade restrictions between the two countries. China currently controls 94% of the global supply of gallium, 83% of germanium, and 56% of antimony. This ban builds upon existing export controls imposed already in August 2023." https://lnkd.in/gX6DvKQ5

In today’s Inside Trade article, “Chinese Mineral Export Controls to Spell Shortages, Long-Term Questions,” Silverado Policy Accelerator responds to China’s latest export restrictions on critical minerals. Sarah Stewart, CEO of Silverado, warns that “the outlook is bleak because we have little alternative actions we can execute on,” noting that “the U.S. is vulnerable” due to a lack of domestic production and processing capacity. Stewart points out that Chinese companies, subsidized by their government, do not have to respond to market pressures in the same way U.S. companies would. She emphasizes, “The U.S. needs to adopt a strategy that is not just about investing at home and hoping the market sets the price,” adding, “We need to invest at home and protect that investment with whatever measures are appropriate to discipline the global market to act fairly.” Mahnaz Khan, Silverado’s VP of Policy for Critical Supply Chains, further notes, “When there’s an export ban and we’re going into an area of national security concern, I think that will open up more [domestic] incentive.” The article also references Silverado’s Strategic Defense Critical Minerals report, which cautioned that China’s export bans on gallium, germanium, and antimony are just the beginning. Khan warns, “What’s more concerning are the minerals on that list that don’t have those restrictions or a ban right now. We still have a wide exposure.” See article here: https://lnkd.in/exBqeC-2 #trade #criticalminerals #rareearths #exportcontrols #exportbans

And how long are we going to debate a solution in Washington? “Two-way trade grew nearly 6 per cent to US$70.86 billion year on year in the first quarter of 2024, Chinese customs data shows a boost to China’s imports of critical minerals and metals, combined with higher commodity prices, have helped to power the growth” #rareearth #criticalminerals #africa #trade #strategiccompetition

#China's export ban to push #antimony prices to new highs https://lnkd.in/ecqwGQfj : Overview of the Current Antimony Supply Challenge Antimony prices recently surged above $40,000 per ton, and China’s new export restrictions are further tightening the global market. With China producing nearly half of the world’s antimony—about 50% of the 83,000 tons reported by the USGS in 2022—its ongoing production consolidation and limited exports have prompted an urgent U.S. effort to secure alternative sources. Xtra Energy is answering this call with its American Antimony Project. Its goal is to establish a stable, cleaner, U.S.-based supply of antimony that not only meets commercial demand but also supports national security objectives. This project stands to strengthen the domestic supply chain while reducing dependence on foreign producers.

It remains to be seen whether China will have the institutional means to restrict US industry's access to critical minerals through the globalized supply chain. https://lnkd.in/dN8saqwY 

#China’s trade embargo on critical minerals to #US The ban will prohibit export of materials used in semiconductors and batteries. https://lnkd.in/eKE5U_Kw ➡️In retaliation to new export controls from Washington designed to restrict China's ability to develop artificial intelligence, Beijing has banned shipments to the US of several critical minerals and metals used in energy infrastructure and military applications. ➡️Such critical minerals remain essential to many energy transition technologies and countries around the world are competing to secure reliable access to supply chains or develop resources domestically. ➡️In 2023, China started its pathway to progressive export restrictions by imposing export licensing controls on some mineral commodities containing #Gallium and #Germanium. ✅On 3 December 2024, #China announced an immediate ban on exports of #Gallium, #ermanium, and #Antimony to #US. ✅The decision also enforces stricter reviews of #Graphite commodities shipped to the US. ➡️China dominates the global mining and refining of those minerals. ➡️The US depends on imports from China for 54% of its germanium and gallium consumption and 63% of its antimony consumption. The trigger to China’s mineral bans was on 2 December 2024, one day before the ban, Washington added more than 100 Chinese companies to a restricted trade list and banned some of the fastest semiconductors and the equipment being sold to China, aimed at hindering China’s advancement in semiconductors and AI systems. IMPACT ON US ECONOMY ✅According to #USGS, China’s germanium, gallium ban could cost the US $3.4 billion. ✅#USGS also predicts gallium prices could increase by more than 150% and germanium prices by 26% in the event of a total ban. This forecast took into consideration of currently available production capacity outside of China, and the short-term substitute potential. GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS OF THE EXPORT BAN ✅Globally, the bans threaten to divide global supply chains further, by forcing companies to choose whether products with these critical minerals should be supplied only to the US and aligned country market or only to the Chinese market. ✅China has been trying to persuade companies globally (particularly from Europe), that they should invest and build supply chains in China and not the US. ✅#EU businesses are increasingly worried about being caught in the crossfire of the ongoing tech war between the US and China. ✅China’s critical minerals embargo is a ‘direct threat to Japanese and European interests to push them away from the US.’ Already sufficiently exacerbated, the Geopolitics of Critical Minerals is about to enter a critical phase.

💥 SILVERADO POLICY ACCELERATOR UNVEILS INNOVATIVE TRADE POLICY FRAMEWORK TO COUNTER CHINA'S GRIP ON CRITICAL MINERALS 💥 🔍 Policy Brief: “What’s Next on China’s Critical Minerals Hit List?” China's near-monopoly on strategic defense critical minerals for defense is a growing threat as it weaponizes supply chains to counter U.S. export controls and looming tariffs. Silverado’s new policy brief dives deep into how China controls vital resources that are essential to national security.  Link:https://lnkd.in/gh8aNKtt 📑 Policy Paper: The Mineral Security Trade Policy Framework Introducing a game-changing roadmap for the Trump Administration to break China’s hold on global supply chains through a petition process for critical mineral agreements through USTR.  Link: https://lnkd.in/g_jiF54s 🎙️ Webinar: Join us Wednesday, January 29, 2025, at 10 AM EST for an exclusive session where Silverado experts will outline key challenges in the escalating trade war with China and unveil the Mineral Security (MinSec) Trade Policy Framework — a powerful solution to protect U.S. supply chains from China’s threat! 🇺🇸💡 📝 Register here: https://lnkd.in/gMAkMg66 ➡️ Inside Trade Article: Read about Silverado's new Mineral Security Trade Policy Framework published today's article: "Fearing Chinese Export Limits, Think Tank Floats Critical Minerals Deals." Link: https://lnkd.in/gzAbzqPX #TradePolicy #MineralSecurity #China #CriticalMinerals

Chinese export controls on #gallium, #germanium, and #graphite were intended to hit US green energy and semiconductor supply chains where it hurts by starving them, or at least complicating the sourcing, of these critical minerals. But as blows in the emerging US-China tech war go, so far, they have been closer to a jab than a haymaker. Analysis of US Customs data indicates that China's shares of total US imports of these commodities haven't moved much, if at all. Whether you think this is a good or bad thing probably depends on how you price geopolitical risk, how much you think low critical minerals prices help or hurt US energy transitions, and how imperative you think de-risking these supply chains is. People of good will will have differing perspectives. But it's important to recognize the export controls aren't really forcing de-risking - at least so far. My latest for the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

This should only spur the United States and the West towards quicker energy and #CriticalMinerals security. Escalating trade tensions and export bans were always going to occur during the #MineralsRace. The inherent risk of any physical asset or commodity is based in part on its ability to be squeezed - be it national, geographical, or political. #China #gallium #antimony #germanium