Arun Garg ⭐’s Post

FM #NirmalaSitharaman’s fiscal prudence offers relief to the #RBI, aiding its #Inflation battle. #Budget2024 avoids populism despite a reduced majority and targets a lower fiscal deficit, promoting economic stability. For the last financial year, the #FiscalDeficit has improved to 5.6% of GDP, down from the revised 5.8%. The government aims for a fiscal deficit of 4.9% of GDP for 2024-25, compared to 5.1% projected earlier and 5.8% revised for 2023-24. The Secretariat explores this further. Curious to know more? Kalyan Ram has the details: https://lnkd.in/gWRdCTJX #ReserveBankOfIndia #FiscalPrudence #IndianEconomy #EconomyWatch #PolicyMatters

Budget estimates for FY 2025-26 project the following key financial figures: 1) Net Tax Receipts: ₹28.37 lakh crore 2) Fiscal Deficit: 4.4% of GDP 3) Gross Market Borrowings: ₹14.48 lakh crore #NumberReview #TaxReceipts #FiscalDeficit

In the next few days in the run up to the Budget, the market is likely to anticipate the Budget proposals and respond. Even though Budget anticipations are speculative, this Budget will be growth oriented and at the same time fiscally prudent. Growth is top priority which the Government cannot and will not compromise. Tax buoyancy and the RBI dividend bonanza give the finance minister ample room for fiscal consolidation. Therefore, the market will be optimistic on this ground.The unknown factor is regarding any possible tweaking of the LTCG tax. If the tax rate is raised or tenure for LTCG is extended the market will respond negatively to that. A possible Budget proposal that can impact certain segments of the market would be disinvestment. Since PSU stocks are trading at high valuations, the government is likely to go for disinvestment in segments where government ownership is very high. This can increase the supply of stocks in these segments and bring their prices down. Watch out for disinvestment proposals in Railways and defence-related segments.

As pre-Budget meetings conclude, the upcoming FY26 Budget under FM Sitharaman will focus on balancing debt reduction and growth amid geopolitical risks and economic pressures. With potential tax challenges and interest rate debates, the govt faces crucial decisions on fiscal policies to sustain growth while managing deficits https://mybs.in/2daYQpZ

Running Yield - Weekly Report dated 18th November 2024 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗦𝘆𝗻𝗼𝗽𝘀𝗶𝘀: 𝗚𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗰𝘁 𝗼𝗻 𝗯𝗼𝗻𝗱 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 • The fiscal deficit of the central government for the first half of the 2024-25 was 29.4% of the annual target. This is a narrowing from the 39.3% deficit in the same period in the previous year. Fiscal deficit for April-September stood at ₹4.75 trillion. The latest figure is lower than ₹7.02 trillion a year ago. In today’s report, we take a look at the internals to understand the improvement. • The improvement in fiscal deficit has happened due to multiple reasons like higher tax receipts, higher dividend from RBI, and subdued government capex during the quarter that ended 30 June due to general elections embargo. • RBI dividend next year i.e. FY25 paid out in FY26, is expected to be lower than the last payout. All the other improvements seem to be sustainable. • Improved tax compliance and enhanced tax base have led to sustained improvement in central government finances. While capital expenditure is expected to pick up in the current fiscal, overall fiscal deficit may be lower than the budgeted 4.9% of GDP. • FPI inflows into government bonds have been buoyant, but for the marginal reversal in October and November 2024. The G-Sec issuance calendar for the second half i.e. October 2024 to March 2025 has been on-line as per union budget. There is scope for positive surprise here, as due to improved finances, the Center may end up borrowing less than announced. • Overall, with increasing demand from various quarters and disciplined issuances of G-Secs, the demand-supply equation looks well balanced. #RunningYield #GovernmentFinances #FiscalDeficit #BondMarket #TaxCompliance #Capex #FPIFinflows #GSecs #EconomicReport #InvestmentInsights #MarketUpdate #FinancialAnalysis #FixedIncome #IndiaEconomy #RBI #UnionBudget Joydeep Sen Kunal Singh Kochar Rodney Correa Sunil Jani Vaibhav Singhal

This report talks about the improvement in central government finances.

*Budget estimates for FY 2025-26 project the following key financial figures:* 1) Net Tax Receipts: ₹28.37 lakh crore 2) Fiscal Deficit: 4.4% of GDP 3) Gross Market Borrowings: ₹14.48 lakh crore #NumberReview #TaxReceipts #FiscalDeficit

This morning we have published our preview of Budget 2024. Our best guess is that a deterioration in the fiscal outlook will lead the Treasury to boost its forecast bond issuance by a cumulative $15bn over the next four years. It could be slightly less if the forecasts incorporate tighter spending control and/or smaller tax cuts than we have assumed. But equally it could be more if the Treasury downgrades its outlook for nominal GDP - and thus the tax base - by more than we have assumed. Kelly Eckhold, Satish Ranchhod, Michael Gordon, Paul Clark, Westpac New Zealand Economic-Data_Budget-preview_bulletin_17May24.pdf (westpaciq.com.au)

The upcoming budget for 2024-25 due to be tabled in the Parliament on Tuesday will likely keep the momentum on infrastructure spending but the core focus area will remain adhering to fiscal discipline especially aided by the unprecedented dividend surplus from the Reserve Bank of India. #infrastructure #EcoSurvey #economicsurvey2024

𝐁𝐮𝐝𝐠𝐞𝐭 𝐅𝐘 2025 In the full Budget presented today by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, the government has set its fiscal deficit target at 4.9% of GDP for the financial year 2024-25. This target is lower than the 5.1% projected in the interim budget in February and is closer to the 4.5% target set for 2025-26. Read more- https://lnkd.in/dikNr-HM --- #Budget2024 #EconomicReforms #IndiaGrowth #FiscalPolicy