Chin Tsan Lin’s Post

https://lnkd.in/gFdZk2Ag The struggle between the Marcos and Duterte clans isn’t just a battle between two houses. It is becoming a proxy fight between the United States and China for the future of the Indo-Pacific. Barring any catastrophes in the coming months, the two powerful dynasties are set for a dramatic showdown in the May 2025 elections, which will serve as a referendum on both the Dutertes and the Marcoses. Crucially, the Dutertes fatally underestimated Marcos Jr., whom the former president openly dismissed as a “weak leader” ahead of the 2022 elections. The Dutertes expected their ally to remain a pliable and subservient president, with Sara Duterte effectively dictating key policies of the state. The namesake son of the former Philippine dictator had other plans. The final straw was the decision by Marcos allies to go after a key Duterte ally, the controversial pastor Apollo Quiboloy, who has long been on the FBI’s most-wanted list on charges of human trafficking. Both China and the United States have a direct interest in the future direction of Philippine political leadership. In geopolitical terms, today’s Manila somewhat resembles Berlin in the mid-twentieth century, when competing superpowers tried to carve out their own spheres of influence. It remains to be seen if the two dynasties will flirt with outright political violence, given the extremely high stakes in the race.

Also as far as politics in Taiwan. It's pretty quiet. The thing is that people spend about 18 months before the election in January and that burns you out. Right now all of the political parties are positioning themselves for the next set of elections but that means that the stuff is happening in the legislature and most people are just getting on with their lives until the next political season starts. I am pleasantly surprised at how will the KMT is doing internally. I expected the KMT to lose, followed by a year of fights and blaming, and with either Wayne Chiang or Lu Shiow-Yen picking up the pieces. There was about a month of finger pointing, but the party is pretty solid, and there are a few reasons for this. 1) Hou You-ih is willing to be the scapegoat. Any time the KMT asks who do we blame for losing, Hou steps up and says "blame me" 2) The KMT did as good as it could do given the political situation. Looking at the results, the only thing that the KMT could have done to win is to come up with a deal with the TPP. This means either convincing Ko to be VP, or if that is not possible then having Ko be the President and turning the KMT into a wing of the TPP. 3) People are rallying around Han Guo-Yu. Han always had a fan base and he is by far the best speaker that the KMT has. The issue with Han is that people always accused him of putting his person ambition above the party, and the in the closing weeks of the election, his campaign for Hou put an end to that. Also while the KMT/TPP alliance broke down for the presidency it did work for the legislature. TPP ended up losing the geographical seats, but the fact that Han campaigned hard for the TPP gave him a lot of support. Also Han is a "deep blue" but he had a light blue as a deputy. 4) The standard fight in the KMT is between the "pro-China nationalists" and the "pragmatists". The thing about the 2024 election is that its obvious from the result that the KMT would have done poorly if it had softened its China policy. The thing is that softening the China policy would *not* have got it any new votes (I mean why vote for the KMT of it copied the TPP) and it would have had the hard blue deserting the KMT for the TPP. As it was, a hard core pro-China stance got it the 15 percent unificationist vote and meant that the KMT is the senior member of the KMT-TPP alliance rather than the junior member.

This year's Ratiu Dialogues on Democracy "The Return of History?" took place in Turda, Romania. We're happy to report a strong LSE IDEAS CSEEP and Jagiellonian University's representation, with Wojciech Michnik and Marcin Fatalski in attendance. Details below: Title of the panel: United States on the Brink? Speakers: Dr. Brian Klaas and Dr Wojciech Michnik. Chair: John Florescu Wojciech Michnik covered the elections' international and foreign policy aspects, focusing on a more general trend of the US (slow) disengagement from Europe and a potential disunity between NATO allies after the US presidential elections. He discussed regional perspective(s) on the US role in Europe and NATO, addressing the question of how much change should we expect in Central-Eastern Europe whether Harris or Trump wins the White House. Short description of the panel: As Republicans and Democrats increasingly find themselves at odds in Congress, and Americans more polarized than at any time since the end of the Second World War, many commentators have expressed concern that this division threatens the stability of the republic. The potential consequences could be as significant for the world as they are for the United States itself. With some polls suggesting that Donald Trump may once again occupy the White House after the upcoming election, the future appears fraught with uncertainty. Photo credits: Ratiu Forum

Democratic political parties are in the midst of a perfect storm of polarization, extremism and authoritarianism. Authoritarian political parties, governments and leaders are on the rise. Corruption, indifference to voter, opaque party organizations have undermined public confidence in political parties, fueling democratic instability and weakening global institutions. And this is truly a global phenomen. Populists, authoritarians and polarizing forces are thriving because democratic political parties are failing to unite, and are too weak to protect the core values of the democratic process. Traditional parties have become kidnapped by charlatan reformers in century-old democracies. Both new and old parties have jumped on the populist train — or joined coalitions far from their political roots — just to gain power. But the recipe is not to give up on political parties. Parties in a multiparty system, operating under free and fair elections, are the backbone of democracy. The Political Parties Team that I lead at National Democratic Institute (NDI) - we have been working with this topic during several years. If you want to learn more please read our resource: Beyond Polarization: Collaboration and Dialogue for Political Parties A special shout out to my fantastic colleagues on the team Program Managers Meghan Backer and José A. that has piloted this program in Ethiopia and the Philippines.

A tumultuous Japanese election has put the current political order in to uncertainty. Recently, I had just finished reading the book "Despair of the LDP, 自民党という絶望" and many of the points raised by the book's various contributors have resonated with the current political climate. In this article, I review the book and share my thoughts on its view of today's Japanese politics as well its connection to the most recent election https://lnkd.in/de6vspzr

🇪🇺 Last Wednesday I had the exciting opportunity to be at the Brussels Public Affairs Forum 2024 on behalf of FiscalNote, alongside my colleagues. The discussion started with Lucinda Creighton to deliver a keynote on “The Geopolitics of the EU in the Aftermath of the EU Elections”. In a nutshell, the conference explored key topics for the present and future of the public affairs function, such as: - The outcome of the European elections and likely scenarios for the future priorities – and individuals – that will shape EU politics and policy in the next 5 years; - Navigating global risk - the geopolitics of the EU in election year; - What an increasingly fragmented and polarized political landscape in Europe (and beyond) means for public affairs teams; - Policy communication – The art of persuading and managing difficult conversations with audiences and stakeholders; - Leadership and impact in global public affairs – best practice, case studies and advice from the EU, the US and beyond. Thanks to the Public Affairs Council team for organizing such a great discussion and to all the speakers for the interesting insights. https://lnkd.in/dGVdyCdH

On 6-9 June 2024, the European Parliament elections will reaffirm the European Union's foundational commitment to democratic values. Today, democracy faces an array of grave challenges, globally as well as within the EU's own borders. EU institutions, custodians of the most successful multi-national project ever attempted to uphold the values of democracy, peace, sustainable development, and multilateralism, bear a historic responsibility at this critical juncture.  Join me in signing this Statement to call upon the next EU leadership to consider 10 priorities to place democracy, at home and abroad, at the top of the policy agenda.

Understanding and Responding to Global Democratic Backsliding - OA PDF: https://lnkd.in/ghqp3_3C Over the past two decades, democratic backsliding has become a defining trend in global politics. However, despite the extensive attention paid to the phenomenon, there is surprisingly little consensus about what is driving it. The most common explanations offered by analysts—ranging from the role of Russia and China and disruptive technologies to the rise of populism, the spread of political polarization, and democracies’ failure to deliver—fall short when tested across a wide range of cases. A more persuasive account of backsliding focuses on the central role of leader-driven antidemocratic political projects and the variety of mechanisms and motivations they entail. T his paper identifies and analyzes three distinct types of backsliding efforts: grievance-fueled illiberalism, opportunistic authoritarianism, and entrenched-interest revanchism. In cases of grievance-fueled illiberalism, a political figure mobilizes a grievance, claims that the grievance is being perpetuated by the existing political system, and argues that it is necessary to dismantle democratic norms and institutions to redress the underlying wrongs. Opportunistic authoritarians, by contrast, come to power via conventional political appeals but later turn against democracy for the sake of personal political survival. In still other backsliding cases, entrenched interest groups—generally the military—that were displaced by a democratic transition use undemocratic means to reassert their claims to power. Although motivations and methods differ across backsliding efforts, a key commonality among them is their relentless focus on undermining countervailing governmental and nongovernmental institutions that are designed to keep them in check. 1As international democracy supporters continue to refine their strategies of responding to democratic backsliding, they must better differentiate between facilitating factors and core drivers. Such an approach will point to the need for a stronger focus on the nature of leader-driven antidemocratic projects, identifying ways to create significant disincentives for backsliding leaders, and bolstering crucial countervailing institutions. Moreover, they should deepen their differentiation of strategies to take account of the diverse motivations and methods among the three main patterns of backsliding. Only in this way will they build the needed analytic and practical capacity to meet the formidable challenge that democratic backsliding presents. #Democracy #Backsliding #predatorypolticalambition #democraticguardrails #ConstraintsOnPower #authoritarianism #checksandbalances

Taipei, Nov. 6 (CNA) The Ministry of the Interior (MOI) said Wednesday that it will ask the Constitutional Court to legally dissolve the Chinese Unification Promotion Party (CUPP) for "posing a threat to democracy." Under Taiwan's Constitution, the MOI can request the dissolution of a political party "[whose] goals or activities endanger the existence of the Republic of China or the nation's free and democratic constitutional order." The MOI claims that the New Taipei-based CUPP received funding from China to interfere in elections, disrupted public order, and infringed on people's rights to assemble. In a statement, the ministry said the CUPP had systematically sought to develop organized pro-Beijing groups in Taiwan in the years since its founding in 2005. As the CUPP's actions "clearly pose a threat to the constitutional order of freedom and democracy," investigations will be conducted under the Political Parties Act, and evidence will be gathered to petition the Constitutional Court to dissolve the opposition party, the ministry added. https://lnkd.in/gm_EyXsJ

UTS:ACRI Deputy Director Wanning Sun writes on a modulation in Opposition Leader Peter Dutton's rhetoric on the People's Republic of China (PRC) and its possible impact on how members of Australian-Chinese communities vote in the next federal election in Pearls & Irritations:   "Sydney Today, Australia’s biggest Chinese-language digital media outlet, conducted an informal poll among its readers asking if Dutton’s ‘pro-China’ declaration will likely change how they vote. ... Among the 600 people who participated in the poll, as many as 65 percent said that they ‘definitely do not trust Dutton, because the Coalition’s aggressive behaviour from the last election is still too vivid in memory’."   At the same time, Professor Sun states, "This is not to say that Labor can rest on its laurels if it wants to retain Chinese voters. Figures from the latest UTS:ACRI/BIDA Poll should be an early warning sign. ... [T]he results show that the gap between support for the Australian Labor Party and support for the Liberal/National Coalition’s management of China policy that opened up in 2023 seems to be closing."   "Perhaps the most important message for the major political parties is that none of them can take the support of Chinese-Australian communities for granted," she says.   Read: https://bit.ly/45WHq2p   Read the UTS:ACRI/BIDA Poll 2024 by Elena Collinson and Paul Burke: https://bit.ly/3KE9aij