Jonathan Baird,CFA’s Post

Summary of financial markets from last week here... Indian equities underperformed sharply in a global equity rally. Broader markets mostly performed in-line with the benchmark indices. Market breadth was narrow. Volatility inched higher. IT Services was the only notable outperforming sector. Realty stocks also did well. Commodities and PSU banks were the worst performers. Pharma rally also paused. FPIs continued to be aggressive sellers, while domestic institutions remained strong buyers. Indian debt and currency markets stabilized after a week of volatility. Benchmark yields continued to ease. USDINR strengthened marginally. Long duration bond funds were the best performers for the week. Global commodity markets were again mixed as growth concerns continued to deepen and geopolitical tensions stayed elevated. Precious metals were sharply higher (Silver +5.4%, Gold +2.9%), energy prices were marginally lower (WTI Crude -0.3%), Industrial metals were higher (Copper +3.6%, Aluminum +2.9%), steel was lower (-4%) and agri commodities were lower (Sugar -2.1%, Wheat -2.3%). Global markets had a strong risk rally last week with equities, precious metals. Crypto and bonds all recorded decent gains. Volatility eased materially. Japan, Korea, S&P500, Silver, Copper, Treasuries, were notable outperformers. www.fintrekkcapital.com

Timing is everything.

WHY THE GSCI COMMODITY INDEX’S HISTORIC LOW COULD MEAN BIG GAINS AHEAD A theme that runs through our posts is our belief in the value of paying attention to extremes of behaviour in markets, for such behaviour contains valuable information and often offers clues to impending trend changes. The accompanying chart offers one such market extreme in the form of the historically low level of the GSCI Commodity Index versus the S&P 500 in recent years. The valuation ratio between commodities and equities can be expected to oscillate over time, with the three low points for commodities in the past 50 years coinciding with narrowly lead bull markets in stocks: the Nifty Fifty, the Internet Bubble, and the current FAANG/Magnificent 7 era. What the two previous lows for commodities had in common, and also likely the current third example, is that they ultimately resolved to produce sharp bull markets in commodities. When we see evidence of a bullish trend change in commodities remains to be seen. What we are far more confident of is that it will inevitably occur. The strong growth of large emerging markets such as India will increase demand for a broad range of commodities, while the switch by most major central banks to cut interest rates will likely serve to stoke inflationary pressures, which has often coincided with rising commodity markets. The very low allocation to commodities by institutional money managers, combined with the modest sizes of many commodity markets, suggests that a meaningful shift of capital into the sector will produce very sharp price moves. Forewarned is forearmed, and we are closely monitoring commodity markets so that we are prepared to profit when trend changes become evident. The connected nature of markets, especially in this current macro-driven investment environment, means that prudent investors should monitor all asset classes. Each month in our paid service, the Global Investment Letter, I update my investing activities, as well as comment on major global equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets. If you found this post of interest, you’ll find the Global Investment Letter of value. To view free sample issues of our paid service and to receive our free (exclusive to those that sign-up) weekly investment comment please visit: https://lnkd.in/e3BaS3P

Summary of financial markets in last week here.. Indian equities performed in line with other Asian markets, but underperformed the developed markets. The gains were mostly led by FMCG and IT Services. Financials, especially PSU Banks, and metals were the worst performers. Market breadth was good. Broader markets performed in line with the benchmark indices. Volatility inched higher. Volumes were above average; even though the institutional participation was very poor. The Indian debt and currency market remained stable. Benchmark yields were stable slightly below 7% level. INR weakened marginally. Volatility was low. The yield curve remained as flat as it could be. Overnight rates were stable. Both long and short duration bond funds yielded the same returns for the week. Global commodity markets had a poor week. Metals, energy and agri commodities all recorded some losses. Silver (-2.1%), Nickel (-2.4%), Steel (-2.1%), Brent Crude (-1.5%), Sugar (-4.7%) and Wheat (-6.7%) were some notable losers. Global markets witnessed a mixed week with equities rallying all around and commodities losing some ground. Crypto, USD and Copper were down, while bonds were higher. www.fintrekkcapital.com

Summary of financial markets from last week here... Indian equities ended a highly volatile week of trading with strong gains; defying the global weakness in equities. The gains were led by the Global IT services, consumers (expectations of rural recovery) and auto (strong May sales numbers). PSEs (especially PSU Banks and Energy stocks) were notable laggards on profit booking. Financials were overall underperformers. Significant stock specific movements were seen due to political developments. Implied volatility eased materially. Volumes were very strong. FPI accelerated selling; DIIs continued to remain decent buyers. The Indian debt and currency market were slightly weak as the coalition government raised the fears of a populist budget. RBI’s policy statement anchored the volatility and provided stability to the market. Bonds and INR were marginally weaker. The 10-year benchmark bond yields breached above the key 7% mark. The yield curve remained as flat as it could be. Overnight rates were stable. Global commodity markets had another negative week with most commodities registering some losses. Metals (Zinc -6.6%, Nickel -7.8%, Copper -2.8%), Precious metals (Silver -3.8%) Energy (Crude -2.7%, Coal -7.2%) and agri commodities (Wheat -7.6%) were notable losers. Natural gas ended with 13.5% gains. Global markets remained mostly in risk-off mode last week. Equities were mixed with developed equities (Europe +1.4%) gaining and emerging markets losing. Crude and precious metals were also lower. Crypto, USD and Bonds ended the week some gains ahead of the FOMC meet this week.

Summary of financial markets in last week here.. Indian equities evaded a global equity rout and managed to end the week with minor cuts. Realty, IT Services and Auto were the worst performing sectors for the week, while energy and Pharma provided support. Market breadth was mostly even as broader markets moved in tandem with the benchmark indices. Volatility jumped higher. Volumes were above average. FPIs accelerated selling while domestic institutions were good buyers. The Indian debt and currency markets were stable despite the global volatility. USDINR ended the week marginally weaker. Benchmark bond yields were marginally lower.Yiled curve saw some steepening. Overnight rates were lower. Medium duration bond funds yielded the best return for the week, while long bond funds ended flat. Global commodity markets were mixed last week as growth concerns deepened further and the USD outlook weakened. Precious metals were higher, while industrial metals, crude and some agri commodities lost. Gold (+3.4%), Silver (3%), Wheat (+3.2%), Nickle (+3.6%) and coal (+3.5%) were notable gainers. Aluminum (-1.2%), Steel (-4%), Steel (-2.6%), Brent Crude (-4.4%), sugar (-1.4%) and Soy (-2.1%) were some notable losers. Global markets were caught firmly in the risk off mode with the US Fed sounding alarms and BoJ hiking. Equities, crude, and industrial metals recorded decent losses. European and Japanese equities (Nikkei -4.7% and DAX -4.1%) were the worst performers. Crypto and USD also lost decent ground. Bonds gained sharply. www.fintrekkcapital.com

Summary of financial markets in last week here.. Indian equities underperformed the global peers. Traders’ sentiments were impacted by budget speculations, 1QFY25 results expectations and hopes of a good monsoon. Private banks led the positive charge, while consumers, auto and pharma were notable underperformers. Broader markets continued to outperform. Market breadth was strong, volume much above average and volatility moderate. FPIs turned decent net buyers after many weeks. The Indian debt and currency market remained stable. Benchmark yields consolidated below 7% level. INR was stable. Volatility was low. The yield curve remained as flat as it could be. Average lending and deposit rates increased. Overnight rates were also a little higher. Global commodity markets had a mixed week. Energy and metals were mostly positive while most bulks and agri commodities ended the week with decent losses. Brent Crude (+2.9%), Zinc (+3.4%) were notable gainers. Coal (-2%), and Wheat (-8.1%) were notable losers. Global markets were mixed last week. The US and European did well, while China and Japan ended with losses. Precious metals and USD were marginally higher. Crude recorded decent gains. Bonds were lower. www.fintrekkcapital.com

Summary of financial markets from last week here... Indian equities rallied as part of a global risk-on, though it sharply underperformed its Asian and EM peers. The rally was narrow as the broader markets continued to underperform. The rally was led by metals (Chinese monetary stimulus), Auto (Hyundai IPO), Energy and PSU Banks (rate cut hopes). Consumers (inflation fear), Smallcap and private banks were notable underperformers. FPIs turned net sellers after a week of good buying. Volatility eased materially. Volumes were above average. Indian debt and currency markets remained stable. Benchmark yields were marginally lower while INR weakened against most currencies. Long duration bonds were again the best performing category. Overnight rates were marginally lower. The yield curve remained flat. Global commodities rally strengthened further after significant Chinese monetary stimulus. Precious metals, industrial and base metals and agri commodities all rallied strongly. Energy was mixed. Silver 1.8%, Zinc 7.2%, Copper 5.4%, Aluminum 6.1%, Steel 3.3%, were notable gainers. WTI Crude fell 5.2%. The risk rally in the global markets strengthened further after an aggressive Chinese monetary stimulus. Precious metals, cryptos, equities, industrial & base metals all rallied hard. Base metals, Silver, Asian equities, Natural Gas, Bitcoin, were notable gainers. Crude, US Bonds, and USD were notable underperformers. www.fintrekkcapital.com

Summary of financial markets from last week here... Indian equities outperformed global peers. PSU stocks witnessed a sharp rally. Commodities (Metal and Energy) were clear outperformers. Benchmark indices outperformed the broader markets. Market breadth was even. The Consumer and Pharma sector were notable underperformers. Momentum increased as volatility spiked and volumes increased. FPI activity was very poor, while DIIs continued to remain decent buyers. The Indian debt and currency market continues to remain stable. INR recorded decent gains against most currencies. The 10-year benchmark bond yields eased below the key 7% mark after many months. The yield curve shifted lower and remained as flat as it could be. Overnight rates cooled further. Global commodity markets had a negative week with most commodities registering decent losses. Precious metals (Gold -3.4%); Industrial metals (Copper -3%%, Nickel -3.6%), and Energy (Natural Gas -4.7%) were notable losers. Wheat (+8%) was amongst the few gainers. Global markets were mostly in correction mode after a couple of good weeks. Developed market equities underperformed the emerging equities. Precious metals, crude and bonds were also corrected. Crypto and USD ended the week with gains.

Summary of financial markets from last week here.. Indian equities rose in tandem with the global peers, scaling fresh new highs. Broader market outperformed smartly with smallcaps gaining over 3% for the week. The market breadth was very strong. IT services and Pharma led the charge, with energy, consumers and metals making strong contributions. Financials underperformed, dragged by PSU banks. Volumes were much above average. Volatility eased to below annual average. FPIs remained net buyers, while domestic institutional participation was disappointing. The Indian debt and currency market remained stable. Benchmark yields were stable around 7% level. INR weakened marginally. Volatility was low. The yield curve remained as flat as it could be. Overnight rates eased. Corporate bonds were the best performing fund category for the week. Global commodity markets had a very strong week. Metals recorded strong gains led by Silver (+6.7%), Copper (4%) and Steel (+2.1%). Crude broke out of some key technical resistances. Natural Gas (-10.4%), and Sugar (-1.11) were some notable losers. Global markets witnessed a strong risk rally with equities, copper, silver and bonds recording good gains. USD and Crypto were weaker. Asian equities continued to outperform their Western peers.