Lachlan Nieboer’s Post

🚨 Today, as millions of Americans cast their votes, the influence of foreign actors remains a critical concern 🗳️ 🇺🇸 Digital Forensic Research Lab (DFRLab)’s latest report from Kenton Thibaut examines China’s interference tactics aimed at shaping voter perceptions on key issues in the 2024 US presidential election. China’s influence operations leverage targeted messaging and proxy channels to sway public opinion subtly, using tactics designed to fuel uncertainty and advance strategic objectives. 🇨🇳 Explore the 5 trends in China’s US election interference, illustrating its longer game: https://lnkd.in/eCKkF4mf #ForeignInterference #2024USElection #ChinaDisinformation

🇺🇸🚨 As Americans head to the polls today, the US intelligence community remains on high alert for an intensification of foreign influence efforts in the coming days and weeks. DFRLab’s latest from Dina Sadek & Max R. explores what to expect as disinformation campaigns likely escalate post-election, targeting election integrity and sowing doubt. Read more about potential post-election narratives and tactics from foreign actors aiming to disrupt democratic stability: https://lnkd.in/ehVzPkS7 #2024Election #ForeignInterference #Protect2024

Georgia's recent parliamentary elections are a stark reminder of how fragile democracy can be in the face of manipulation. The ruling Georgian Dream party's claimed victory—amidst allegations of fraud and voter intimidation—has raised eyebrows both locally and internationally. Critics, including the Georgian president, have denounced the election as a sham seemingly designed to steer the country closer to Russian influence. This ongoing crisis not only jeopardizes Georgia’s aspirations for European integration but raises significant diplomatic and economic concerns. With the EU suspending funds and the U.S. condemning the election, we must ask: Is Georgia's democratic future at risk? As global citizens, we need to stay informed and support calls for transparency and electoral integrity. The strength of democracy in Georgia may well serve as a litmus test for Western commitment to resisting authoritarianism in the region. Let’s advocate for a fair investigation and a brighter future for Georgia!

With Daniel Sleat and Natia Seskuria, we analysed the election results in Georgia and tried to frame the EU context in which the country moves. The geopolitical challenges around the vote and its consequences are manifold: the stakes for the positioning of the European Union and G7 partners would require a long term strategy starting with immediate actions.

In latest check-in, spy agencies describe 'ramp up' in election influence. Key takeaways: 1. Increased hostile foreign action: U.S. intelligence agencies warn of foreign actors escalating their efforts to influence the 2024 presidential election, affirming it tends to intensify as Election Day nears. 2. Ineffectual efforts: Despite U.S. countermeasures, including recent domain seizures linked to Russian disinformation operations, there's uncertainty about their sufficiency in forestalling Russia's and Iran's efforts to subvert the U.S. electoral process. 3. Diverse foreign focus: While Russia and Iran actively target the presidential race, China concentrates on down-ballot contests to potentially neutralize anti-Beijing lower-level policymakers. Additionally, the mention of multiple nations examining election influence strategies underlines the mounting complexity of safeguarding U.S. elections. Learn more by visiting The Record from Recorded Future News: https://lnkd.in/eS-PQ_AR

Within the last few days I have received several alerts through various professional networks about foreign interference in U.S. elections. These alerts have come from both government and non-governmental sources, including the FBI and others. They raised some concerns for me—but unfortunately not the ones that the senders intended. I have no doubt whatever that there are many adversarial nation-states and other actors who would very much like to influence U.S. elections and are actively trying to do so. I further believe strongly that it is the duty of U.S. citizens, companies, and other organizations to be alert for such influence operations and to actively resist them, report them to the appropriate authorities and take whatever other actions are appropriate for a “good” citizen. On the other hand, we have seen solid evidence that there are actors within the U.S. and elsewhere who have used false claims of foreign interference to further their own political ends. Even more worrisome is that the FBI itself and senior members of the Intelligence Community have been implicated. Some of these individuals may have been unwitting, but that doesn’t really help much. And the politization of major government agencies undermines their legitimacy and casts significant and legitimate doubt on any pronouncements they might make. Worst of all, it’s very difficult for the ordinary citizen—even one with the best of intentions—to tell the difference between malicious interference by foreign actors and politically-motivated homegrown influence (some of which may even be legitimate). Partly this is because true attribution is nearly impossible, but also because there’s darned little difference between the two. This should be a warning to anyone—of any political stripe—of the danger of politicization of the FBI, CIA, and other intelligence agencies. Not only is the foreign interference a grave concern, but the undermining of the legitimacy of valid and important government agencies is simply not worth the cost. Unfortunately, in this highly-charged political climate, I doubt that the political actors at home or abroad will pay much attention.

Can Canada Learn from U.S. Strategies Against Foreign Interference? 🇨🇦🔍 As Canada becomes increasingly aware of the pervasive threat of foreign interference, it's crucial to look at how our neighbors in the United States are addressing similar challenges. This recent article sheds light on the escalating efforts by hostile nations to disrupt and influence elections in both Canada and the U.S. See Global News article here: https://lnkd.in/ecWsTD8E U.S. officials have ramped up their warnings to political candidates and leaders about disinformation campaigns, especially as the 2024 presidential election draws near. This proactive stance is partly due to improved detection capabilities and a growing recognition of the threat. Influence operations from adversaries like Russia, China, and Iran aim to erode public trust in democratic institutions by spreading disinformation and propaganda. These efforts are not limited to social media but also involve sophisticated AI-generated content, posing a significant challenge to election integrity. As a retired intelligence officer and the Director of the Global Intelligence Knowledge Network, I closely monitor how these threats evolve. The U.S. has established the Foreign Malign Influence Center to tackle these issues head-on. 🔹 Should Canada create a similar organization dedicated to countering foreign interference? 🔹 Should this be part of the Canadian Intelligence Community or integrated solely into the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS)? Let's engage in this critical discussion to safeguard our democracy and ensure a resilient response to these ever-evolving threats. 🇨🇦🛡️ For the world of intelligence at your finger tips go to: https://lnkd.in/gwaheaEf #NationalSecurity #ForeignInterference #Canada #CSIS #ElectionIntegrity #Disinformation #GlobalIntelligenceNetwork

In today’s set of readings, we pivot from malicious foreign actors spreading disinformation and turn our focus to protective methods. In Successfully Countering Russian Electoral Interference from the Center of Strategic and International Studies, Conley and Jeangene Vilmer break down the reasons a foreign attempt to influence the 2017 French election failed. Two portions of this readings struck me. The authors credited structural features of the French electoral system as crucial to slowing the disinformation threat and lessening its influence on the election. Since they lack an electoral college, there is no room for citizens to speculate regarding unfair counts. (although even a direct vote could still have doubt cast on polling places). Additionally, having two rounds of the public vote takes the focus off a singular election day. These aren’t changes the United States could implement easily, as they would involve a complete overhaul of the electoral process. However, a second method France utilized was a rapid, public disclaimer of all hacking attempts of the En Marche! campaign. This would only work with direct hack and data leak attempts, but is definitely a strategy United States-based campaigns could implement. Even so, public trust in government institutions and campaigns may need rehabilitation for this to be truly effective. #SocialMedia #Disinformatio #MediaLiteracy https://lnkd.in/e6VySMtv

For decades, the far right has pushed radical and dangerous ideas that would pull the rug out from America’s middle class, strip Americans of fundamental freedoms, and subvert the rule of law. In a latest effort to push this agenda, MAGA extremists have crafted Project 2025—an authoritarian playbook to entrench far-right policies that would upend the federal government as we know it and harm all Americans. One proposal from this playbook calls for stripping U.S. Cyber Command (CYBERCOM) of its charter to fight foreign election interference. As it stands, CYBERCOM is the military’s best tool for defending against and responding to election-related cyberthreats from foreign adversaries. In the past few years, the agency has identified, intercepted, and countered attempts by Russia, Iran, and China to interfere in U.S. elections. CYBERCOM is not only tasked with defending our election systems from foreign interference, but also authorized to engage in “offensive cyber operations” in the wake of such action. However, far-right extremists claim that CYBERCOM’s election-related work is inherently partisan and should therefore be banned.  Free and fair elections are the bedrock of our democracy and belong in the hands of the American people only. Anything that poses a risk to our most sacred democratic process undermines the interests of all Americans. By allowing foreign adversaries to influence U.S. elections, far-right extremists would enable enemies of democracy to advance their objectives and tip the scale in elections with the hopes that it will help them obtain more political power. Halting CYBERCOM’s election work would only serve the far right’s radical agenda and put democracy at risk in favor of giving politicians, judges, and corporations more control over every aspect of American life.

The seismic political upheaval in South Africa has reshaped the country's political landscape. As parties negotiate coalition scenarios, the path forward will define South Africa's future. Read Paul Nantulya's analysis of the implications of this crucial election. #SouthAfrica #Politics #ANC #EFF #CyrilRamaphosa #Elections2024 #Africacenter #CESA https://lnkd.in/e-QFQPri