Freddie Mac: Housing market is undersupplied by 3.7 million homes and it's "the root cause of decreased housing affordability" Housing shortage, according to Freddie Mac economists 👇 2018 -> 2.5 million 2020 -> 3.8 million 2024 -> 3.7 million According to a report published last week by Freddie Mac economists... The U.S. housing stock (147.0 million units) is 3.7 million units below the group’s estimate for how many housing units the market needs given demographics (150.7 million units) “The root cause of decreased housing affordability is the fact that housing supply has not increased enough to match demand. Inadequate housing supply leads homeowners and renters to bid up the sale price and rent of available housing, which puts a squeeze on affordability,” wrote Freddie Mac economists in their report. To stay updated on the U.S. housing market—including regional market variations, buyer/seller dynamics, and different perspectives—subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter: https://lnkd.in/gc6XNqfW
Most likely short more units than 3.7M. Supply: 1) A big success, we built 1.5M multi-units in the past 3 years and those units are being absorbed. New apartment construction is dropping now by over 50%, below 300K new units per year. Construction loan costs and uncertainty of demand is slowing multi-family unit construction. 2) Existing home sales have declined by 1.5M units per year since rates were raised. Quite dramatically, our younger population is not participating in home ownership. Our young adult population must be remaining as renters; living with their parents longer or part of the 700K homeless population. There is a dramatic change.occuring with our young adult population in their ability to purchase a home. Demand: Popultion Growth or Decline 1) The US has been consistently growing population with birth rates greater than death rates and net foreign migration growing. The US has been growing population by millions per year. Will this change with tighter borders and declining birth rates? If our population growth remains positive we will need many more housing units.
Yep. It ain’t the rates.
So where were Freddie, Fannie, FHFA, HUD over the last 15 years? Did they roll out and market below market interest rates higher l/v green mortgages? Did they market Energy mortgage when over 10 million housing units were being refi? NO Did any of the these GSE underwrite climate change into their mortgage portfolios? No Now Trump will separate these GSE from implied gov support. No more tax payer backing. So eventually these GSE mortgage portfolios will fall in value due to climate change. This is why all these GSE are failed enterprises.
Thier statements are rather misleading. Out of the last 100 sales I have completed appraisals for maybe a handful have a modest increase in a bidding war - more 10k and under. Furthermore the builders have no insentive to start building stock to flood the market when ( at least in the PNW) major national chain builders are sitting on stock, with their own financing of 3-4% being offered and they still can not move the product. The appraisal waivers have their own part in the ever increasing markets where consumers are kept in the dark about what the value of the house is, but only told “it went through”. Fannie wants to down play all of this.
i hope this is accurate. It seems like we are short millions of low cost homes. And builders cannot make $$$ on new housing under $400k (or in alot of places - anything under $500k). SOME building materials are still priced high - but i keep thinking this is due to labor. And i don't see labor costs going down.
If it were a simple supply/demand imbalance the market would have already corrected and homebuilders across the country would be building like crazy and pre selling everything they built. The problem goes much deeper. Build costs are to the point that builders can only make margin building at prices that are beyond what the largest segments of the population can afford. Suggesting that high prices are the result of low supply without considering build costs would suggest that homebuilders are building high demand products and making huge margins based on a lack of supply and this just isn't the case.
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3moLance Lambert, thanks for the post. Do you have the ability / resources to provide a heat map of where the 3.7M unit deficit sits geographically?