Hybrid warfare is all about a state’s skill in subverting another’s rules by leveraging sub-state and local actors for strategic influence. When U.S. policy focuses solely on state-level actors, we miss both the threats and solutions essential to countering hybrid warfare. Recent developments in the Balkans and Caucasus underscore this point. Russia’s influence, wielded through local allies, media manipulation, and economic leverage, demonstrates the effectiveness of sub-state engagement in destabilizing regions from within. In Moldova and Georgia, pro-Russian local actors have created internal fractures that can be as disruptive as any conventional threat. To counter these tactics, U.S. and allied strategies need to evolve, putting more emphasis on understanding and working with sub-state actors. Ignoring these local dynamics leaves us vulnerable to the very threats we aim to counter. For a deeper dive into this complex landscape: https://lnkd.in/dDBU9Zj5 #HybridWarfare #irregularwarfare #NationalSecurity #Geopolitics #ForeignPolicy #StrategicStudies #ConflictResolution #USPolicy #SubStateActors #Russia #InfluenceOperations #GlobalSecurity #WarOnTheRocks
Melissa Lloyd, PMP’s Post
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My new article is now live on the NATO Association of Canada website! I am proud to have written this article in time for tonight's US presidential debate! Learn more about the candidate's different visions for American foreign policy and the potential implications on NATO and international order. Check it out!
Are you planning to watch the US election debate tonight? Then we have an article for you! In Kelsey Hickman's "To Proceed Accordingly or with Caution: The United States' Post-election Policy Plans for NATO," she analyzes the main differences between Harris's and Trump's promises for global security. "Trump and his affiliates have proposed restructuring NATO to prioritize U.S interests, whereas Harris pledges to strengthen the international alliance and collective security." This pre-debate read provides contextual evidence for the candidate's different visions for the future of American foreign relations. Hickman argues that the embedded centrality of the United States in the international community is at the heart of the presidential election and makes the outcomes pictorial for NATO's future. "As Americans plan to head to the polls, the world is watching... whether the next president redefines or reaffirms America's role, the outcome will have lasting implications for NATO and the global order." Read the article here now: https://lnkd.in/gf2z7NXf #Article #USElection #Trump #Harris #TrumpVHarris #NATO #PolicyImplications #Security #Debate #Debate #USDebate #TrumpHarrisDebate
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Are you planning to watch the US election debate tonight? Then we have an article for you! In Kelsey Hickman's "To Proceed Accordingly or with Caution: The United States' Post-election Policy Plans for NATO," she analyzes the main differences between Harris's and Trump's promises for global security. "Trump and his affiliates have proposed restructuring NATO to prioritize U.S interests, whereas Harris pledges to strengthen the international alliance and collective security." This pre-debate read provides contextual evidence for the candidate's different visions for the future of American foreign relations. Hickman argues that the embedded centrality of the United States in the international community is at the heart of the presidential election and makes the outcomes pictorial for NATO's future. "As Americans plan to head to the polls, the world is watching... whether the next president redefines or reaffirms America's role, the outcome will have lasting implications for NATO and the global order." Read the article here now: https://lnkd.in/gf2z7NXf #Article #USElection #Trump #Harris #TrumpVHarris #NATO #PolicyImplications #Security #Debate #Debate #USDebate #TrumpHarrisDebate
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In the rock, paper, scissors that is Global Geopolitics when facing bellicose dictators, how do you think the following attributes stack up? - Self-focused bickering - Systemic delays for small unilateral action - Chronic internal division and inability to move forward even after elections - Frequent tantrums - Voters who act like consumers vs. Citizens and buy whatever is more comfortable - Lawmakers who do not or cannot understand what is at stake militarily, economically, technologically We need to consider ways to reboot the system or at least to refresh it. Meanwhile, in order to have any chance of efficacy vs. China and Russia, we need to continue down the path we are on. #Vote #DusttoDust ||
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Foreign Influence / Interesting Read: Taiwan’s approach to fighting foreign information manipulation is a model of resilience. By uniting government, civil society, and private sectors, Taiwan builds a “whole-of-society” defense against external interference. It’s not perfect, but it works—and it’s a lesson for any democracy facing similar threats. #Cyfluence #Influence Defense #Misinformation
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Dear Western friends and colleagues, I deeply value and appreciate your steadfast support and collaboration over the years. Together, we have worked diligently to architect Georgia’s Western future, grounded in shared values of democracy, freedom, and the rule of law. Your expertise has been crucial in securing Georgia’s progress and resilience. Therefore, I kindly ask you to stay focused on the latest developments in Georgia, where Russia is actively working to hinder Georgia’s Western aspirations through special operations, cyber-enabled propaganda, election interference, and disinformation campaigns. In response, hundreds of thousands of citizens are protesting "Georgian Dream’s" Kremlin-inspired actions. As always, Russia is using Georgia and other former Soviet countries as testing grounds for new hybrid warfare methods, which are later deployed against the EU and US. Now, more than ever, it is critical to stand together and remain vigilant in supporting Georgia’s fight against Russia’s hybrid war on democracy.
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Poland fears that Trump could give up American support to Ukraine and deal with the Russian President. In this prospect, Ukraine would be shrunk of 20 % of its territory and it is more than foreseeable that the EU will not do anything to prevent this disaster. Despite the Russian war in Ukraine, the EU did not learn anything, remains a political dwarf and did not raise its industrial and military capacities to take up its own responsibilities. One day, it might be too late to do it. #europe #eu #ue #poland #us
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In one week at the upcoming roundtable on Security and Defence in the South Caucasus, David Sichinava, Adjunct Research Professor at Carleton University will present: Setting Sail in Uncharted Waters? Georgia's Domestic Political Trajectories After the 2024 Parliamentary Elections This presentation examines potential scenarios for Georgia’s political development following its disputed 2024 parliamentary elections. Since 2022, the country has grown increasingly anti-Western and authoritarian, paralleling Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine. The ruling Georgian Dream party has enacted anti-democratic measures restricting freedom of expression, jeopardizing civil society and independent media, and facilitating money laundering—a frequently overlooked issue tied to the legal disputes of the party’s informal leader, Bidzina Ivanishvili. The October 2024 elections, widely criticized for alleged voter intimidation, preceded the Georgian Dream’s suspension of EU membership negotiations and rushed presidential elections. These moves triggered mass protests, which authorities met with a crackdown reminiscent of Russia’s 2022 anti-war protests. Hundreds of activists, journalists, and opposition figures have been arrested, and government-controlled courts are handing down significant fines and prison sentences. With Georgia’s democracy unraveling, key questions emerge: Will the Georgian Dream consolidate authoritarian rule or can civil society prevail? How will external actors influence the country’s future? In this presentation, I will evaluate these competing visions for Georgia’s future that may determine which path the country ultimately follows. Chart the course forwards along with Professor Sichinava and other experts by registering for the event here: https://lnkd.in/g-ZiS2UN The EETN is hosted by EURUS - Carleton University and funded through the Department of National Defence/Ministère de la défense nationale MINDS Program.
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Cognitive Warfare: A Peek into the Russian Disinfo Operations undermining Election Integrity in Europe This is essentially the identical playbook the Chinese are following and have deployed. Both the Russians and the Chinese get to do this with nary a counter or a pushback. They have complete, unfettered access to run this playbook day-in and day-out in our own country as well as in essentially most of our Western allies. This is the disinformation power to manipulate thought on steroids. #CognitiveWarfare #Disinformation #ElectionIntegrity #PsyOps https://lnkd.in/gZ5vFr8n
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🌍 Georgia at a crossroads: Navigating regional challenges and future prospects The controversial “foreign-agents” law has stalled Georgia’s EU accession process, despite strong public support for joining the EU and NATO, sparking a wave of internal protests. Ongoing tensions with Russian-backed regions and a fractured opposition add to the uncertainty leading up to the October elections. However, the re-establishment of ferry routes between Bulgaria and Georgia, as well as Ukraine and Georgia, offers a glimmer of hope for regional connectivity and economic resilience. As Georgia navigates these complex challenges, the outcome of the upcoming elections will likely shape its future direction—whether aligning more closely with Western values or maintaining its current course. For a deeper dive into these pressing issues, read Analyst Hans-Kristian Petersen's full briefing >> https://bit.ly/3WthGpU #maritime #maritimesecurity #Georgia #EU #NATO #regionalstability #BlackSea #geopolitics #riskmanagement
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On Edge: Who Do You Want as President to Deal with this Mess? Today, we highlight the escalating war in the Middle East, Russia and China’s “evil axis” alliance, and the existential U.S. presidential election.
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Thank you, Melissa. Completely agree. I believe we are also witnessing this tactic in #CentralAsia, particularly #Kyrgyzstan, in which the strongest and most vibrant civil society sector is now maligned and increasingly ostracized through the Foreign Agents Legislation